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Macro Briefing: 12 July 2022

* Worst is yet to come for global energy crisis, predicts IEA * Strong US dollar expected to take a toll on corporate earnings * Dividend payouts on track…

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This article was originally published by The Capital Spectator

* Worst is yet to come for global energy crisis, predicts IEA
* Strong US dollar expected to take a toll on corporate earnings
* Dividend payouts on track for another record in the second quarter
* US small business sentiment slips to 48-year low in June
* Do abortion bans in certain US states have an economic cost?
* Collapse of large crypto hedge fund highlights counterpart risk alert
* Americans cancel home-purchase deals at highest rate since start of pandemic
* US Dollar Index rises to new 20-year high:

US consumer inflation expectations increase for short-term out but decline at medium- and longer-term periods, reports the New York Fed. “Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 6.8%, from 6.6% in May, marking a new series high. In contrast, median three-year ahead inflation expectations decreased to 3.6% from 3.9%.” ING advises: “In a context of high uncertainty, and of egregious forecasting errors, one could be tempted to focus on the near-term picture, or even on backward-looking inflation indicators. If this is indeed the case at the Fed, then the curve would be right to price aggressive tightening until the end of this year, but subsequent cuts next year…”

Biden will make the case for greater oil output from OPEC nations to lower energy prices when he travels to the Middle East this week, says White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. “We will convey our general view…that we believe that there needs to be adequate supply in the global market to protect the global economy and to protect the American consumer at the pump.”




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