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Macro Briefing: 21 June 2022

* European Central Bank plans two rate hikes this summer* Goldman Sachs raises US recession-risk probability to 30% for 2023* China’s economy continues…

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This article was originally published by The Capital Spectator

* European Central Bank plans two rate hikes this summer
* Goldman Sachs raises US recession-risk probability to 30% for 2023
* China’s economy continues to face downside risks
* Fed’s rate hikes are starting to slow borrowing and spending
* Israel’s gov’t collapses, new elections set
* New US ban on imports from the China’s Xinjiang region has started
* German 10-year yield rebounds to highest since 2014:

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expects US economy to continue growing in near term. “On GDP growth, I think that the indicators are that there will be continued expansion in the quarters ahead,” he says. Although he acknowledged various risks, “right now, there will continued expansion through 2022,” he predicts.

US housing market is correcting, not crashing, says Matt O’Hara, head of portfolio management and research at Unison Investment Management. “The best way to describe the housing market is that it is coming back to Earth. This is not a crash landing. We are returning to a more manageable supply-and-demand situation. During the pandemic, the market reached a fever pitch because more and more people wanted to move – whether it was to have more space, to work remotely, to pay less than they previously were, or any other factors. Now, as the world opens up, we’re starting to see those factors settle in.”


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