Macro Briefing: 26 May 2023

* Outline for a possible US debt-ceiling deal takes shape
* Three options to avoid a debt-ceiling crisis without a political compromise
* Europe’s source of economic resiliency–Germany–is breaking down
* New Chinese hacking effort risks derailing hopes for a US-China thaw
* JPMorgan developing ChatGPT-type AI service that gives investment advice
* US GDP growth in Q1 revised modestly higher to 1.3%
* US economic activity strengthened in April via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index
* Pending home sales in US were steady in April
* US jobless claims edged up last week as prior weeks revised lower:

A soft-landing outlook remains possible for US economy, advises a senior US economist for Morningstar Research Services. “With inflation already easing substantially without a recession, we’re very confident that it’s possible to achieve a soft landing, contingent on astute monetary policy. We see about a 30%-40% probability of a formal recession being declared, but we think a recession will be short-lived if it does occur,” writes Preston Caldwell. “We also remain bullish on long-term gross domestic product growth. We project GDP growth to start bouncing back in the second half of 2024 as the US Federal Reserve pivots to easing monetary policy, showing up as robust growth in the 2025, 2026, and 2027 annual numbers.”

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monetary policy