Macro Briefing: 30 June 2022

* Putin says Russia will respond in kind to Nato expansion
* US economy shrank slightly more than previously estimated
* Fed Chair Powell reaffirms plans to combat inflation
* China mfg sector expands in June–first increase since Feb via PMI survey data
* US considers releasing more oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves
* Grayscale sues SEC over its rejection of firm’s bitcoin ETF
* US stock market still appears to be in bear market as Q2 winds down:

Could the Fed go to far with rate hikes and trigger recession? That’s possible, says Fed Chair Powell. “Is there a risk that we would go too far [with rate hikes]? Certainly there’s a risk,” he admits. “But I wouldn’t agree that that is the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make would be to fail to restore price stability.”

More than nine in 10 people across in the US say they are concerned about inflation, according to a new poll. 70% say they are “very concerned” (up from 63% in April). A separate poll finds that a growing majority of Americans say the US is heading in the wrong direction.

More rate hikes are coming, predicts Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf. “I wouldn’t bet on a number, but I would bet on more significant rate hikes,” he says, adding that increases of of 50 or 75 basis points would be “significant” hikes. “Is it going to be more than that? Maybe, but it would require some change in the data to see something like that.”

Rising mortgage rates — highest since 2008 — are cooling the housing market. “We’ve reached the point where people just can’t afford a house,” says Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, a national real estate brokerage.

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