Macro Briefing: 30 November 2022

* Biden calls on Congress to ‘immediately’ pass legislation to avert rail shutdown
* Junk bonds rise, fueled by speculation that rate hikes have peaked
* China manufacturing activity fell at a deeper pace in November
* China may reopen in March, easing zero-Covid policy, predicts economist
* Eurozone inflation eases slightly as energy-price surge softens
* Stagflation risk for the US is rising, warns analyst
* Home prices in US fell for third straight month in September
* US consumer confidence eased for second month in November:

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the inverted yield curve predicts that interest rates have peaked. He tells CNBC that “the yield curve may be anticipating is that we may get a surprisingly sharp drop in the inflation rate.” He adds that “every time the two-year Treasury [yield] rises faster than the [10-year] yield, and eventually reaches it or exceeds, that’s coincident with a peak in short term and long term interest rates. I think the yield curve is predicting that we already possibly have seen the peak in interest rates. And if that’s the case, I think that’s a good argument for making the case we’ve seen the bottom in the stock market.”

Morgan Stanley strategist says “cash is king” at the moment. “Surprisingly, right now cash is king. It’s very powerful. You’re getting paid for your cash,” says Kathy Entwistle, managing director at Morgan Stanley. “We also like bonds, municipal bonds, high grade corporate, and also Treasuries.”

inflation
stagflation
policy
interest rates