Midweek data: balance of trade around the world ahead of the NFP

The magnitude of the current bounce suggests considerable institutional involvement, which is practically unknown in the week before a major event such as the NFP. That suggests in turn that the reaction to the job report could also be extremely strong, so the most conventional wisdom of waiting for the dust to settle after a major release before possibly acting seems to have some value this week.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the key releases for this symbol.

Wednesday 5 October

• 12:15 GMT: ADP employment change (September) – consensus 200,000, previous 132,000
• 12:30 GMT: American balance of trade (August) – consensus negative $67.7 billion, previous negative $70.7 billion
• 14:00 GMT: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (September) – consensus 56, previous 56.9

Thursday 6 October

• 12:30 GMT: initial jobless claims (1 October) – consensus 203,000, previous 193,000

Friday 7 October

• 12:30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (September) – consensus 250,000, previous 315,000
• 12:30 GMT: American unemployment rate (September) – consensus 3.7%, previous 3.7%
• 12:30 GMT: American annual average hourly earnings (September) – consensus 5.1%, previous 5.2%
• 12:30 GMT: American monthly average hourly earnings (September) – consensus 0.3%, previous 0.3%

Euro-dollar, daily

Much like gold, the euro’s move up against the US dollar has been very energetic since last week. Eurozone-wide flash annual non-core inflation last week came in at a full 10%, a fresh record high and significantly higher than the consensus of 10%. National inflation in Spain and France was lower than expected, but Italian inflation increased more than the consensus and Germany’s surged to 10% as well.

Dr Lagarde and other members of the ECB’s executive board have commented on their commitment to stability of prices in recent days regardless of the risk of a significant recession. Various national banks in the eurozone have called for another triple hike later this month.

The technical situation looks quite positive for this symbol with a huge spike in buying volume around 26 September low and daily ATR close to the post-Covid peak. The 50-day moving average from Bands is still being tested, so a retracement lower might be favourable before a possible breakout upward depending on the NFP and any further comments from the executive board or the FOMC. As above, jumping in very quickly after Friday’s releases would be extremely risky under the circumstances.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the key releases for this symbol.

Wednesday 5 October

• 12:15 GMT: ADP employment change (September) – consensus 200,000, previous 132,000
• 12:30 GMT: American balance of trade (August) – consensus negative $67.7 billion, previous negative $70.7 billion
• 14:00 GMT: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (September) – consensus 56, previous 56.9

Thursday 6 October

• 12:30 GMT: initial jobless claims (1 October) – consensus 203,000, previous 193,000

Friday 7 October

• 6:00 GMT: German monthly industrial production (August) – consensus negative 0.5%, previous negative 0.3%
• 6:45 GMT: French balance of trade (August) – consensus negative €14.83 billion, previous negative €14.54 billion
• 12:30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (September) – consensus 250,000, previous 315,000
• 12:30 GMT: American unemployment rate (September) – consensus 3.7%, previous 3.7%
• 12:30 GMT: American annual average hourly earnings (September) – consensus 5.1%, previous 5.2%
• 12:30 GMT: American monthly average hourly earnings (September) – consensus 0.3%, previous 0.3%

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