Economics
Oil volatile, gold rallies
Oil Initially crude prices were unable to hold onto early gains after the EIA short-term energy outlook trimmed their demand outlook for gasoline and distillates….
Oil
Initially crude prices were unable to hold onto early gains after the EIA short-term energy outlook trimmed their demand outlook for gasoline and distillates. Earlier, oil was rallying after a couple bullish calls from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Goldman raised their third-quarter Brent price forecast from USD 125/bbl to USD 140/bbl, while Morgan sees Brent reaching USD 130/bbl, with the upside potentially testing USD 150/bbl.
The oil market is expected to remain tight as the supply side will continue to tell a story of low inventories. Crude oil inventories will likely post more draws as driving season and vacationing heats up.
China’s COVID situation doesn’t seem like it may continue to head in the right direction. With President Xi potentially attending Hong Kong’s July 1st handover anniversary, no one is expecting Hong Kong to go into lockdown.
Oil surged late after the US issued a statement to the IAEA board that suggested a revival of the Iran nuclear deal is still not any closer to happening. The US said, “What we need is a willing partner in Iran. In particular, Iran would need to drop demands for sanctions lifting that clearly go beyond the JCPOA and that are now preventing us from concluding a deal.”
Gold rallies as risk appetite dips
A lot of doom and gloom was good news for gold. Target’s second profit warning in 20 days and a downbeat outlook from the World Bank were just what gold needed to muster up a rally. Treasury yields are also down sharply after yesterday’s surge, which is welcome news for bullion holders.
Gold is likely to consolidate around the USD 1840-1870 level leading up to Friday’s inflation report.
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