“Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

That’s the title of a conference in Padova, September 21-22.  Call for papers (deadline 5/31!).

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 40-year high inflation rate have triggered massive spikes in risk and uncertainty and raised many challenges for macroeconomic modelers and forecasters. Against this background, the conference papers will cover, among others, topics such as various approaches to measuring uncertainty and risk; uncertainty and its global spillovers; conducting monetary policy in times of uncertainty; the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting; identification of uncertainty shocks; assessing the effects of uncertainty at the firm and household levels; causal effects of uncertainty on the global economy and financial markets; uncertainty and climate change; trade policy uncertainty and geo-economic fragmentation; inflation uncertainty.

Guest editors:

Menzie Chinn, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs and Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, United States of America

Efrem Castelnuovo, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Aziendali “Marco Fanno” – DSEAUniversity of Padua, Italy

Davide Furceri, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, United States of America

Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University, Washington DC, United States of America

Special issue information:

5th Biennial Conference on

“Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

September 21-22, 2023, Padova, Italy

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 40-year high inflation rate have triggered massive spikes in risk and uncertainty and raised many challenges for macroeconomic modelers and forecasters. Modeling these events and their consequences for the business cycle as well as for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators is challenging because it calls for frameworks able to handle health shocks, sudden and abrupt structural changes (among which supply chain disruptions), pressures on various energy markets, and the unconventional policy responses that have been put into place by most Governments around the world.

Following the success of the first four conferences, the University of Padova, Federal Reserve Bank at Atlanta, International Institute of Forecasters, American University, and International Monetary Fund will jointly organize the 5th biennial conference on “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”. Our in-person, two-day conference will bring together researchers and policymakers to present and discuss novel approaches to understand how to effectively model the uncertainty-business cycle relationship and forecast key macroeconomic indicators in the context of a changing environment.

The conference will take place on September 21-22, 2023 at the University of Padova, Italy.

KEYNOTE SPEAKERS: David Altig (Atlanta Fed) and Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University)

The conference papers will cover, among others, topics such as various approaches to measuring uncertainty and risk; uncertainty and its global spillovers; conducting monetary policy in times of uncertainty; the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting; identification of uncertainty shocks; assessing the effects of uncertainty at the firm and household levels; causal effects of uncertainty on the global economy and financial markets; uncertainty and climate change; trade policy uncertainty and geo-economic fragmentation; inflation uncertainty; forecasting in a changing environment.

The scope of the conference is not limited to the topics listed above and submissions from all areas of uncertainty and risk are welcome.

JIMF SPECIAL ISSUE:

The papers can be considered for inclusion in the Journal of International Money and Finance (JIMF) special issue titled “Uncertainty and Economic Activity”. The papers will be peer reviewed on an expedited basis. The special issue will be edited by Menzie Chinn, Efrem Castelnuovo, Davide Furceri, and Xuguang Simon Sheng.

PAPER SUBMISSION PROCEDURE:

Please send full papers as a PDF to [email protected] and [email protected] with the subject “Uncertainty conference in Padova”. Submitters should indicate whether they want their submission to be considered for inclusion in the JIMF special issue. The deadline for paper submissions is May 31, 2023. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by June 30, 2023.

EXPENSES:

There is no participation fee. Speakers are expected to cover their own travel and accommodation expenses.

CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS:

Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo, Giovanni Pellegrino (all at University of Padova)

Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund)

Brent Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank at Atlanta)

Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE (INCLUDING CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS):

Wojtek Charemza (Vistula University), Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin-Madison, JIMF coeditor), Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Klodiana Istrefi (Banque de France), Svetlana Makarova (University College London), Gabriel Mathy (American University), Chiara Scotti (Federal Reserve Bank at Dallas), Bo Sun (University of Virginia)

Manuscript submission information:

Deadline – 14-Mar-24

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