Weekly forex data: GDP and the NFP

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

• Wednesday 30 September, from 1.00 GMT: American presidential debate
• Wednesday 30 September, 6.00 GMT: British annual GDP growth (Q2, final) – consensus -21.7%, previous -1.7%
• Wednesday 30 September, 6.00 GMT: British quarterly GDP growth (Q2, final) – consensus -20.4%, previous -2.2%
• Wednesday 30 September, 6.00 GMT: British current account (Q2) – consensus -£400 million, previous -£21.1 billion
• Wednesday 30 September, 12.15 GMT: ADP employment change (September) – consensus 610,000, previous 428,000
• Wednesday 30 September, 12.30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (Q2, final) – consensus -31.7%, previous -5%
• Thursday 1 October, 8.30 GMT: British MarkIt/CIPS manufacturing PMI (September, final) – consensus 54.3, previous 55.2
• Thursday 1 October, 12.30 GMT: American personal income (August) – consensus -2.2%, previous 0.4%
• Thursday 1 October, 12.30 GMT: American personal spending (August) – consensus 0.8%, previous 1.9%
• Thursday 1 October, 13.45 GMT: initial jobless claims (26 September) – consensus 850,000, previous 870,000
• Friday 2 October, 12.30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (September) – consensus 850,000, previous 1.37 million
• Friday 2 October, 12.30 GMT: American unemployment rate (September) – consensus 8.2%, previous 8.4%

Brent, four-hour

Most observers would have expected at least a small uptick in the price of crude oil amid the current clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh given the proximity of several major pipelines to the disputed area. However, this has yet to materialise. Equally, the latest phase of weakness for the dollar should logically result in some gains for crude sooner or later.

The main negative factor overshadowing possible fundamental support for prices above $42 is the weaker outlook for demand. The continuing increases in cases of covid-19 in much of Europe and other major economies around the world is a concern for bulls despite unusually high positivity in China. Equally, there are some signs that supply is starting to increase again in various regions. For example, Bloomberg reported yesterday that Libyan supply has tripled compared with last month to about 250,000 barrels per day since the country’s blockade was lifted partially last week.

The technical situation has been pretty stable since this time last week in the absence of much significant new information. The 50 SMA from Bands golden crossed the 100 on Thursday morning only for price to retreat below the 38.2% daily Fibonacci retracement area today. The focus this week is on the NFP and American GDP for how the dollar might be affected, but traders should not overlook regular stock data.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

• Tuesday 29 September, 20.30 GMT: API crude oil stock change (25 September) – previous 691,000
• Wednesday 30 September, from 1.00 GMT: American presidential debate
• Wednesday 30 September, 1.00 GMT: Chinese NBC manufacturing PMI (September) – consensus 51.2, previous 51
• Wednesday 30 September, 1.45 GMT: Caixin manufacturing PMI (September) – consensus 53.1, previous 53.1
• Wednesday 30 September, 12.30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (Q2, final) – consensus -31.7%, previous -5%
• Wednesday 30 September, 14.30 GMT: EIA crude oil stock change (25 September) – consensus -2.33 million, previous -1.64 million
• Friday 2 October, 12.30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (September) – consensus 850,000, previous 1.37 million
• Friday 2 October, 12.30 GMT: American unemployment rate (September) – consensus 8.2%, previous 8.4%
• Friday 2 October, 17.00 GMT: Baker Hughes’ oil rig count (2 October) – previous 183

Euro-rand, four-hour

The general change in tone towards ‘risk off’ since last week and the euro’s strength have contributed to the recent gains for EURZAR. South Africa’s economy has also generally taken the bigger hit from covid-19 than the average in the eurozone.

It’s probably too early to assert a resumption of the euro’s primary uptrend on the higher timeframes but there are clear signs of weaker momentum downward. Price has reached overbought twice since the start of last week but continued to hold gains. The 23.6% retracement area of the daily Fibo could be an important pivot point over the next few days. To the upside, exactly R 20 is an important psychological resistance.

Tuesday and Wednesday are crucial days for South African data. The number of important releases on Wednesday especially means that volatility is likely to be very high for euro-rand and most other pairs with the rand as well.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

• Tuesday 29 September, 9.30 GMT: South African unemployment rate (Q2) – consensus 34.9%, previous 30.1%
• Tuesday 29 September, 12.00 GMT: German annual inflation (September, preliminary) – consensus -0.1%, previous 0%
• Wednesday 30 September, 6.00 GMT: German annual retail sales (August) – consensus 4.2%, previous 4.2%
• Wednesday 30 September, 7.55 GMT: German unemployment change (September) – consensus -8,000, previous -9,000
• Wednesday 30 September, 7.55 GMT: German unemployment rate (September) – consensus 6.4%, previous 6.4%
• Wednesday 30 September, 8.00 GMT: South African annual inflation (August) – consensus 3.1%, previous 3.2%
• Wednesday 30 September, 8.00 GMT: South African annual core inflation (August) – consensus 3.2%, previous 3.2%
• Wednesday 30 September, 8.00 GMT: South African monthly inflation (August) – consensus 0.2%, previous 1.3%
• Wednesday 30 September, 12.00 GMT: South African balance of trade (August) – consensus R 29.7 billion, previous R 37.42 billion
• Thursday 1 October, 9.00 GMT: eurozone’s unemployment rate (August) – consensus 8.1%, previous 7.9%
• Friday 2 October, 9.00 GMT: eurozone’s annual core inflation (flash, September) – consensus 0.5%, previous 0.4%
• Friday 2 October, 9.00 GMT: eurozone’s annual inflation (flash, September) – consensus -0.2%, previous -0.2%

Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.

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