WTI Extends Losses After Surprise Crude, Gasoline Builds

Oil prices extended their recent weakness today, finding support at around $102 again before bouncing back, driving by recession fears.

Crude has whipped back and forth as the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation “has shaken the confidence of investors using crude as an inflation hedge,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

“Market liquidity is challenged as volatility has also taken its toll on traders and investors alike, leaving crude susceptible to massive swings.”

Futures holdings are at the lowest since 2016, leaving headline prices prone to outsized swings.

API

• Crude +5.607mm

• Cushing -390k

• Gasoline +1.216mm – first build since March

• Distillates -1.656mm

US crude stocks rose for the 3rd straight week (and rose significantly) and gasoline inventories built for the first time since March…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $105.20 ahead of the API data and slipped lower on the surprise crude/gasoline builds…

Finally, we note that wholesale gasoline prices bounced higher today, shrugging off Biden’s plans for a federal tax cut…

But we note that retail prices are down 6c in the last week and wholesale prices suggest prices could drop further in the short-term…

Biden victory lap?

Not so fast as Goldman reminded traders today that “investors should remember that Fed-induced slowdowns are simply a short-term abatement of the symptom – inflation — and not a cure for the problem – underinvestment.”