Connect with us

Articles

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low

Price action has been generally uninspiring, with US index futures and…

Published

on

This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low

Price action has been generally uninspiring, with US index futures and European stocks flat after UK inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, while Asian markets fell as investors fretted over early rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after strong retail earnings dented the stagflation narrative.  Ten-year Treasury yields held around 1.63% and the dollar was steady. Cryptocurrencies suffered a broad selloff, while oil extended losses amid talk of a coordinated U.S.-China release of reserves to tame prices. Gold rose. At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.0.3% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.15%, boosted by gains in Tesla and other electric car-makers amid growing demand for EV makers.

Target Corp was the latest big-name retailer to report positive results, as it raised its annual forecasts and beat profit expectations, citing an early start in holiday shopping. But similar to Walmart, shares of the retailer fell 3.1% in premarket trade as its third-quarter margins were hit by supply-chain issues. Lowe’s rose 2.2% after the home improvement chain raised its full-year sales forecast on higher demand from builders and contractors, as well as a strong U.S. housing market.

Wall Street indexes had ended higher on Tuesday after data showed retail sales jumped in October, and Walmart and Home Depot both flagged strength in consumer demand going into the holiday season. While the readings showed that a rise in inflation has not stifled economic growth so far, any further gains in prices could potentially dampen an economic recovery. Indeed, even as global stocks trade near all-time highs, worries are rising that growth could be derailed by inflation, the resurgent virus, or both. The question remains whether the jump in costs will prove transitory or become a bigger challenge that forces a sharper monetary policy response, roiling both shares and bonds. The market now sees a 19% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in their March 2022 meet, up from 11.8% probability last month.

“The markets are still driven by uncertainty regarding how transitory inflation is,” according to Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “The market is assessing the situation about inflation — what is in the price and what is not.”

On the earnings front, Baidu reported a 13% jump in sales after growth in newer businesses such as the cloud helped offset a slowdown in its main internet advertising division. Nvidia and Cisco Systems are scheduled to report results later today

In premarket trading, Tesla inexplicably rose as much as 2.4% in U.S. pre-market trading, extending a bounce from the previous session after CEO Elon Musk disclosed even more stock sales. Peers Rivian and Lucid added 0.9% and 8.8%, respectively. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Electric-vehicle makers Rivian Automotive (RIVN US), Lucid (LCID US) and Canoo (GOEV US) all move higher in U.S. premarket trading on heavy volumes, extending their gains and after Rivian and Lucid notched up milestones in their market values on Tuesday. The gains for Rivian on Tuesday saw its market capitalization surpass Germany’s Volkswagen, while Lucid’s market value leapfrogged General Motors and Ford.
  • Tesla (TSLA US) shares rise 1.3% in U.S. premarket trading, extending the bounce the EV maker saw in the prior session and after CEO Elon Musk disclosed more share sales.
  • Visa (V US) shares slip in U.S. premarket trading after Amazon.com said it will stop accepting payments using Visa credit cards issued in the U.K. starting next year.
  • Boeing (BA US) gains 1.9% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo upgrades the airplane maker to overweight from equal weight in a note, saying the risk-reward is now skewed positive.
  • Citi initiates a pair trade of overweight Plug Power (PLUG US) and underweight Ballard Power Systems (BLDP US), downgrading the latter to neutral on weak sales in China and likely delay in meaningful fuel cell adoption. Ballard Power falls 3.4% in premarket trading.
  • La-Z-Boy (LZB US) climbed 7% in postmarket trading after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal second quarter of 2022 that beat the average analyst estimate and boosted its quarterly dividend.
  • StoneCo’s (STNE US) shares fall as much as 9% in postmarket trading Tuesday after the fintech reported a weaker-than-expected adjusted results for the third quarter.
  • Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI US) rose 11% in extended trading after saying it submitted an Emergency Use Authorization application to the U.S FDA for its new DPP SARS-CoV-2 Antigen test.

European stocks treaded water with U.S. equity futures as the worst outbreak of Covid infections since the start of the pandemic held the rally in check. In the U.K., inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, pressing on the FTSE 100 to lag peer markets.

Asian stocks fell, halting a four-day rally, as investors factored in higher Treasury yields and the outlook for U.S. monetary policy to assess whether the region’s recent gains were excessive.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.7%, pulling back from a two-month high reached Tuesday. The banking sector contributed the most to Wednesday’s drop as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported cash earnings that were below some estimates. South Korea led the region’s decline, with the Kospi falling more than 1%, weighed down by bio-pharmaceutical firms. Asia’s stocks are taking a breather from a run-up driven by expectations for earnings to improve and economies to recover from quarters of pandemic-induced weakness. The benchmark is coming off a two-week gain of 1.5%.  “Shares are correcting recent gains, although I’d say it’s not much of a correction as the drop is mild,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “The relatively solid economic performances in the U.S. and Europe signal positive trends for Asian exporters,” which will support equities over the long term, he said.  U.S. stocks climbed after data showed the biggest increase in U.S. retail sales since March, while results from Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. showed robust demand. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.64%, gaining for a fourth day.

Japanese equities fell, cooling off after a four-day advance despite the yen’s drop to the lowest level against the dollar since 2017. Service providers and retailers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which dropped 0.6%. Recruit and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.4% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended its decline after tumbling 0.6% against the greenback on Tuesday. The value of Japan’s exports gained 9.4% in October, the slowest pace in eight months, adding to signs that global supply constraints are still weighing on the economy.

Indian stocks fell, led by banking and energy companies, as worries over economic recovery and inflation hurt investors’ sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 60,008.33 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by 0.6%. The benchmark index has now dropped for five of seven sessions and is off 3.7% its record level reached on Oct. 18. All but five of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of real estate companies.  Fitch Ratings kept a negative outlook on India’s sovereign rating, already at the lowest investment grade, citing concerns over public debt that’s the highest among similar rated emerging-market sovereigns.  While high-frequency data suggests India’s economic recovery is taking hold, central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at an event on Tuesday that the recovery is uneven. “Feeble global cues are weighing on sentiment,” Ajit Mishra, a strategist with Religare Broking, said in a note. He expects indexes to slide further but the pace of decline to be gradual with Nifty having support at 17,700-17,800 level. Shares of Paytm are scheduled to start trading on Thursday after the digital payment company raised $2.5b in India’s biggest initial share sale. Local markets will be closed on Friday for a holiday.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.1%. The index heavyweight has lost 5% this week, headed for the biggest weekly drop since June 27.

In rates, Treasuries were steady with yields slightly richer across the curve and gilts mildly outperforming after paring early losses. Treasury yields except 20-year are richer by less than 1bp across curve with 30-year sector outperforming slightly; 10-year yields around 1.63% after rising as high as 1.647% in early Asia session. Focal points for U.S. session include 20-year bond auction — against backdrop of Fed decision to not taper in the sector, made after last week’s poorly bid 30-year bond sale, and seven Fed speakers scheduled. The $23BN 20-year new issue at 1pm ET is first at that size after cuts announced this month; WI yield at 2.06% is 4bp richer than last month’s, which tailed the WI by 2.5bp. In Europe, gilts richen slightly across the short end, short-sterling futures fade an open drop after a hot inflation print. Peripheral spreads are marginally wider to core.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drifted after earlier rising to its highest level in over a year, spurred by strong U.S. retail sales and factory output data Tuesday; the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers though most currencies were consolidating recent losses against the greenback. The pound reached its strongest level against the euro in nearly nine months after U.K. inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The Australian dollar hit a six-week low as third quarter wage data missed the central bank’s target, prompting offshore funds to sell the currency; the three-year yield fell back under 1%. The yen declined to its lowest level in more than four years as growing wagers of quicker policy normalization in the U.S. contrasted with the outlook in Japan, where interest rates are expected to be kept low. Super-long bonds fell.

Volatility broke through the recent calm in currency markets, where the cost of hedging against volatility in the euro against the dollar over the next month climbed the most since the pandemic struck in March 2020. The move comes as traders bake in bets on faster rate hikes to curb inflation.

The Turkish lira extended the week’s downward move, weakening another 2% against the dollar after comments from Erdogan sent the USDTRY hitting record highs of 10.5619

The Chinese yuan advanced to its highest level since 2015 against a basket of trading partners’ currencies following the dollar’s surge. Bloomberg’s replica of the CFETS basket index rises 0.3% to 101.9571, closer to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the PBOC in 2015, testing the central bank’s tolerance before stepping in with intervention.

In commodities, crude futures dropped as the market weighs the potential for a join U.S.-China stockpile-reserve release. WTI is down more than 1%, back on a $79-handle; Brent slips back toward $81.50, trading near the middle of this week’s range. Most base metals are under pressure with LME copper down as much as 1.4%. Spot gold adds $10 near $1,860/oz. European gas surged to the highest level in a month as delays to a controversial new pipeline from Russia stoked fears of a supply shortage with winter setting in.

Cryptocurrencies remained lower after a tumble, with Bitcoin steadying around the $60,000 level.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,696.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 489.79
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 200.06
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 656.01
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 29,688.33
  • Topix down 0.6% to 2,038.34
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 25,650.08
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,537.37
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 60,064.33
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,369.93
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,962.42
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $81.79/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,859.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.95
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.25%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1310

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bond traders are bracing for a key test Wednesday as the Treasury looks to sell its first long-dated debt since inflation worries spooked buyers at last week’s poorly received 30-year auction
  • Increasingly stretched prices in property and financial markets, risk-taking by non-banks and elevated borrowing pose a threat to euro-area stability, the European Central Bank warned
  • Germany is giving investors a rare chance to grab some of Europe’s safest and positive-yielding debt. The country will sell one billion euros ($1.13 billion) of its longest-dated debt at 10:30 a.m. London on Wednesday. The country’s 30-year notes are currently trading with a yield 0.09%. It’s a paltry rate, but probably the last time for a while that Germany will offer the maturity
  • ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn says euro- area inflation is accelerating due to increasing demand pushing up the price of energy and supply bottlenecks, according to interview in Finland’s Talouselama magazine
  • The yuan’s advance to a six-year high versus China’s trading partners this week has investors asking how far the central bank will let the rally run. The yuan extended gains on Wednesday against a basket of 24 currencies of the nation’s trading partners, bringing it close to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the People’s Bank of China in 2015
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to continue fighting for lower interest rates, sending a clear signal to investors a day before the central bank sets its policy. The lira weakened

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed and struggled to sustain the positive lead from the US where better than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data spurred the major indices, in which the S&P 500 reclaimed the 4,700 level and briefly approached to within four points of its all-time high. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was led lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector amid weakness in the largest lender CBA despite a 20% jump in quarterly cash profit, as operating income was steady and it noted that loan margins were significantly lower. Mining related stocks also lagged in Australia due to the recent declines in global commodity prices amid the stronger USD and higher US yields. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) retraced its opening gains after disappointing Machinery Orders and miss on Exports which grew at the slowest pace in eight months, while the KOSPI (-1.2%) suffered due to virus concerns with daily infections at the second highest on record for South Korea. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were varied with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech stocks including NetEase post-earnings, while the mainland was choppy as markets continued to digest the recent Biden-Xi meeting that was described by President Biden as a ‘good meeting’ and in which they discussed the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks. US and China also agreed to provide access to each other’s journalists, although there were also comments from Commerce Secretary Raimondo that China is not living up to phase 1 trade commitments and it was reported that China is to speed up plans to replace US and foreign tech. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand hampered following the declines in T-notes, although downside was stemmed amid the flimsy sentiment across Asia-Pac trade and with the BoJ also in the market for JPY 925bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Set to Snap Four-Day Advance as Kospi Leads Decline
  • Gold Rises as Fed Officials Feed Debate on Inflation Response
  • Deadly Toxic Air Chokes Delhi as India Clings to Coal Power
  • PBOC May Start Raising Rates by 10bps Every Quarter in 2022: TD

European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) trade with little in the way of firm direction as the Stoxx 600 lingers around its ATH printed during yesterday’s session. The handover from the APAC session was mostly a softer one after the region failed to sustain the positive lead from the US which saw the S&P 500 approach within four points of its all-time high. Stateside, US futures are just as uninspiring as their European counterparts (ES flat) ahead of another busy day of Fed speak and pre-market earnings from retail names Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJK) with Cisco (CSCO) and NVIDIA (NVDA) due to report after-hours. Markets still await a decision on the next Fed Chair which President Biden said will come in around four days yesterday; as it stands, PredictIt assigns a circa 65% chance of Powell winning the renomination. Sectors in Europe have a marginal positive tilt with Media names outperforming peers alongside gains in Vivendi (+1.0%) after Italian prosecutors asked a judge to drop a case against Vivendi’s owner and CEO for alleged market manipulation. Travel & Leisure names are the notable underperformer amid losses in sector heavyweight Evolution Gaming (-9.6%) who account for 14% of the sector with the Co. accused of taking illegal wagers. In terms of individual movers, Siemens Healthineers (+4.6%) is one of the best performers in the region after the Co. noted that revenues are on track to grow 6-8% between 2023 and 2025. UK Banking names such as Lloyds (+1.3%) and Natwest (+1.1%) have benefitted from the favourable rate environment in the UK with today’s inflation data further cementing expectations for a move in rates by the BoE next month. Conversely, this acted as a drag on the UK homebuilder sector at the open before moves were eventually scaled back. SSE (-4.5%) underperforms after announcing a GBP 12.5bln investment to accelerate its net zero ambitions.

Top European News

  • Epstein’s Paris Apartment Listed for $14 Million, Telegraph Says
  • Volkswagen Shares Stall as Analysts Doubt Its EV Street Cred
  • Germany to Move Ahead With Tighter Covid Curbs Amid Record Cases
  • U.K. Urges EU Not to Start Trade War If Brexit Deal Suspended

In FX, the Greenback extended Tuesday’s post-US retail sales and ip gains to set new 2021/multi-year highs overnight when the index hit 96.266 and several Dollar pairs probed or crossed psychological round numbers. However, the latest bull run has abated somewhat amidst some recovery gains in certain rival currencies and a general bout of consolidation ahead of housing data, another raft of Fed speakers and Usd 23 bn 20 year supply that will be of note after a bad debut for new long londs last week, not to mention tepid receptions for 3 and 10 year offerings prior to that.

  • NZD/AUD – A marked change in the tide down under as the Aud/Nzd cross reverses sharply from around 1.0450 to sub-1.0400 and gives the Kiwi enough impetus to regain 0.7000+ status vs its US peer with extra incentive provided by NZ PM Ardern announcing that the entire country is expected to end lockdown and move to a new traffic light system after November 29, while Auckland’s domestic borders will reopen from December 15 for the fully vaccinated and those with negative COVID-19 tests. Conversely, the Aussie is struggling to stay within sight of 0.7300 against its US counterpart in wake of broadly in line Q3 wage prices that leaves the y/y rate still some way short of the 3% pace deemed necessary to lift overall inflation by the RBA.
  • GBP/CAD – Sterling is striving to buck the overall trend with help from more forecast-topping UK data that should give the BoE a green light for lifting the Bank Rate in December, as headline CPI came in at 4.2% y/y, core at 3.4% and PPI prints indicate more price pressure building in the pipeline. Cable printed a minor new w-t-d peak circa 1.3474 in response before waning and Eur/Gbp fell below the prior y-t-d low and 0.8400, but is now back above awaiting more news on the Brexit front and a speech from one of the less hawkish MPC members, Mann. Elsewhere, the Loonie is hovering around 1.2550 vs the Greenback and looking toward Canadian inflation for some fundamental direction as oil prices continue to fluctuate near recent lows, but Usd/Cad may also be attracted to decent option expiry interest between 1.2540-55 in 1.12 bn.
  • CHF/EUR/JPY – All straddling or adjacent to round numbers against the Dollar, but the Franc lagging below 0.9300 on yield differentials, while the Euro has recovered from a fresh 2021 trough under 1.1300 and Fib support at 1.1290 to fill a gap if nothing else, and the Yen just defended 115.00 irrespective of disappointing Japanese machinery orders and internals within the latest trade balance.

In commodities, WTI and Brent benchmarks are pressured this morning but the magnitude of the action, circa USD 0.70/bbl at the time of writing, is less pronounced when compared to the range of the week thus far and particularly against last week’s moves. Newsflow has been slim and the downside action has arisen without fresh catalysts or drivers; note, participants are cognisant of influence perhaps being exerted by today’s WTI Dec’21 option expiry. To briefly surmise the morning’s action, Vitol executives provided bullish commentary citing limited capacity to deal with shocks and on that theme, there were reports of an explosion at an oil pipeline in Southern Iran, said to be due to aging equipment. This, alongside reports that Belarus is restricting oil flows to Poland for three-days for maintenance purposes, have not steadied the benchmarks. Elsewhere, last night’s private inventories were mixed but bullish overall, with the headline a smaller than expected build and gasoline a larger than expected draw. On gasoline, some desks posit that this draw may serve to increase pressure for a US SPR release, and as such look to today’s EIA release which is expected to print a gasoline draw of 0.575M. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer this morning but, in a similar vein to crude, remain well within familiar ranges as specific catalysts have been light and initial USD action has largely fizzled out to the index pivoting the U/C mark. More broadly, base metals are pressured as inventories of iron ore are at their highest for almost three years in China as demand drops, with this having a knock-on impact on coking coal, for instance.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.5%
  • 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits, est. 1.63m, prior 1.59m, revised 1.59m
  • 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits MoM, est. 2.8%, prior -7.7%, revised -7.8%
  • 8:30am: Oct. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -1.6%; Housing Starts, est. 1.58m, prior 1.56m

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Even as inflation jitters remained on investors’ radars, that didn’t prevent risk assets pushing onto fresh highs yesterday, as investor sentiment was bolstered by strong economic data and decent corporate earnings releases. In fact by the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.39%) had closed just -0.02% beneath its all-time closing record, in a move that also brought the index’s YTD gains back above +25%, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.17%) hit an all-time high as it posted its 16th gain in the last 18 sessions.

Starting with the data, we had a number of positive US releases for October out yesterday, which echoed the strength we’d seen in some of the other prints, including the ISMs and nonfarm payrolls that had both surprised to the upside in the last couple of weeks. Headline retail sales posted their biggest gain since March, with a +1.7% advance (vs. +1.4% expected), whilst the measure excluding autos and gas stations was also up by a stronger-than-expected +1.4% (vs. +0.7% expected). Then we had the industrial production numbers, which showed a +1.6% gain in October (vs. +0.9% expected), though it’s worth noting around half of that increase was a recovery from Hurricane Ida’s effects. And that came against the backdrop of solid earnings results from Walmart and Home Depot as well earlier in the session. They saw Walmart raise their full-year guidance for adjusted EPS to around $6.40, up from $6.20-$6.35 previously, whilst Home Depot reported comparable sales that were up +6.1%. To be honest it was difficult to find much in the way of weak data, with the NAHB’s housing market index for November up to a 6-month high of 83 (vs. 80 expected).

Amidst the optimism however, concerns about near-term (and longer-term) inflation pressures haven’t gone away just yet, and the 5yr US breakeven rose again, increasing +1.1bps yesterday to an all-time high of 3.21%. Bear in mind that just 12 days ago (before the upside CPI release) that measure stood at 2.89%, so we’ve seen a pretty sizeable shift in investor expectations in a very short space of time as they’ve reacted to the prospect inflation won’t be as transitory as previously believed. The increase was matched by a +1.3bps increase in nominal 5yr yields to a post-pandemic high of 1.27%. The 10yr yield also saw a slight gain of +1.9bps to close at 1.63%, and this morning is up a further +0.7bps. Against this backdrop, the dollar index (+0.58%) strengthened further to its highest level in over a year yesterday, though the reverse picture has seen the euro weaken beneath $1.13 this morning for the first time since July 2020.

Speaking of inflation, there were fresh pressures on European natural gas prices yesterday, which surged by +17.81% to €94.19 per megawatt-hour. That’s their biggest move higher in over a month, and follows the decision from the German energy regulator to temporarily suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, adding further short-term uncertainty to the winter outlook. UK natural gas futures (+17.15%) witnessed a similar surge, and their US counterparts were also up +3.19%. Elsewhere in the energy complex, Brent crude (+0.46%) oil prices moved higher as well.

Overnight in Asia, equity indices are trading lower this morning including the CSI (-0.05%), the Nikkei (-0.45%) and the Hang Seng (-0.55%), though the Shanghai Composite (+0.19%) has posted a modest advance. There were also some constructive discussions in the aftermath of the Biden-Xi summit the previous day, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying that the two had spoken about the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks, which could offer the prospect of a further easing in tensions if they do come about. Looking forward, futures are indicating a muted start in US & Europe later on, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) and the DAX (-0.15%) pointing to modest declines.

Elsewhere, markets are still awaiting some concrete news on who might be nominated as the next Fed Chair, though President Biden did say to reporters that an announcement would be coming “in about four days”, so investors will be paying close attention to any announcements. Senator Sherrod Brown, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, who earlier in the week noted a pick was imminent, followed up by proclaiming he was “certain” that the Senate would confirm either of Chair Powell or Governor Brainard.

Staying on the US, as Congress waits for the Congressional Budget Office’s score on Biden’s social and climate spending bill, moderate Democratic Senator Manchin noted continued uncertainty about the bill’s anti-inflationary bona fides. Elsewhere, the impending debt ceiling has worked its way back into the spotlight, with Treasury Secretary Yellen saying that she’ll soon provide updates on how much cash the Treasury will have to pay the government’s bills. The market has started to price in at least some risk, with yields on Treasury bills maturing in mid-to-late December higher than neighbouring maturities, and the Washington Post’s Tony Romm tweeted yesterday that the new deadline that the Treasury was expected to share soon was on December 15.

Turning to Germany, coalition negotiations are continuing between the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP, and yesterday saw SPD general secretary Lars Klingbeil state that “The goal is very clear, to have a completed coalition agreement in the next week”. We’ve heard similar comments from the Greens’ general secretary, Michael Kellner, who also said that “We aim to achieve a coalition agreement next week”. One issue they’ll have to grapple with is the resurgence in Covid-19 cases there, and Chancellor Merkel and Vice Chancellor Scholz (who would become chancellor if agreement on a traffic-light coalition is reached) are set to have a video conference with regional leaders tomorrow on the issue.

Staying on the pandemic, it’s been reported by the Washington Post that the Biden administration will announce this week that it plans to purchase 10 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid pill. The company will submit data for the pill to regulators before Thanksgiving. It’s not just the US that will benefit from Pfizer’s pill however, as the pharmaceutical company will also license generic, inexpensive versions of the pill to low- and middle-income countries, which should be a global boost in the fight against the virus.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the main release came from the UK employment numbers, which showed that the number of payrolled employees rose by +160k in October, whilst the unemployment rate in the three months to September fell to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected). That release was better than the Bank of England’s MPC had expected in their November projections, and sterling was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday (+0.06% vs. USD) as the statistics were seen strengthening the case for a December rate hike.

In response to that, gilts underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr yields up +2.7bps. That contrasted with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps), OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-2.6bps), which all moved lower on the day. Interestingly, that divergence between bunds and treasury yields widened further yesterday, moving up to 188bps, the widest since late-April.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/17/2021 – 07:50





Author: Tyler Durden

Precious Metals

Sound Money Is A Prerequisite To Peace, Prosperity, And Freedom

Sound Money Is A Prerequisite To Peace, Prosperity, And Freedom

Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute,

There are many good recommendations…

Sound Money Is A Prerequisite To Peace, Prosperity, And Freedom

Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute,

There are many good recommendations promoted by Austrian school economists for improving the economy. Although we enjoy successes periodically, most–such as deregulating trucking and airline pricing–involve eliminating previous government interventions. These successes are to be celebrated, of course. But no one can deny that government intervention into the economy has continued, despite these occasional success stories.

The reason Big Government has continued to grow is that it controls money production. Not only does government grow in terms of spending, regulations, and interventions everywhere (both internally and overseas), but it threatens our very freedoms. In other words, government’s control of money is diametrically opposed to peace, prosperity, and freedom and eventually will destroy our republican democracy. For this reason, returning to sound money–i.e., money that is created by the private market, is part and parcel of the market, and is controlled by no one–should be goal number one for every lover of peace, prosperity, and freedom. Nothing less than the survival of our western-style way of life is at stake.

Here are a few examples of how unsound money progresses and masks its destructive power.

  • One, unsound money allows government to confiscate resources at will. For example, in 2020 America’s bloated military spent as much as the next eleven nations of the world combined. Of course, military spending went up in 2021 and will continue to increase in 2022. America’s annual budget deficit is projected to be somewhere between $1.84 trillion and $3.4 trillion, depending upon whether you ask the Biden administration or the Congressional Budget Office. All of this money is created out of thin air. Americans’ taxes will not increase enough to cover even a fraction of the Biden estimate, and there is no appetite in the bond market for more American debt. Therefore, the Fed will monetize the new debt onto its balance sheet. The resulting increase in base money will cause the prices of most goods and services to rise. This impoverishment of the American people through the hidden tax of inflation is possible only because money is completely fiat; i.e., produced out of nothing except the government’s printing press and computer terminals.

  • Two, unsound money masks the destructive power of government market interventions. An example is former President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. According to a friend of mine, the data is irrefutable that the tariffs worked. Well, as Mark Twain said, there’s lies, damned lies, and statistics. What really is irrefutable is the economic law of opportunity cost; i.e., that choosing one thing means the giving up of another. Another is individual preference. The very fact that people must not be allowed to purchase Chinese goods means that they valued those goods to a higher extent than American goods. The reason does not have to be financial. There’s always service, availability, quality, etc. So preventing Americans from buying Chinese goods means less satisfaction for Americans. This is just one example. Another is keeping zombie companies in business through artificially lower interest rates means that capital is misallocated to less productive uses. There’s a whole panoply of labor laws that artificially raises the cost of American labor, reduces American productivity, and lowers business income. Some workers are priced out of the market through minimum wage and mandatory benefit packages. Business has less capital to invest for expansion. New business starts are discouraged. There’s something there for everyone! The destruction is masked by monetarily inflated GDP numbers, artificially suppressed Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, increased unemployment payments, and other government programs and manipulated data.

  • Three, and most importantly, Americans’ freedom is threatened. Government can print enough money to buy unlimited enforcers of its rules. More IRS agents. More agents for enforcing arbitrary rules of the Occupational, Safety, and Health Administration (OSHA). More agents for enforcing new environmental regulations and laws arbitrarily established by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). More Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) agents. Perhaps even agents to confiscate guns.

Conclusion

Returning to limited government, creating a more free market order, having a less intrusive government, etc. requires sound money. Sound money is not a guarantee of a free society, but a free society is impossible without sound money.

I conclude with these quotes from The Quotable Mises. The last quote is especially pertinent to the point of this brief essay. (Emphases are mine.)

  • The gold standard alone makes the determination of money’s purchasing power independent of the ambitions and machinations of governments, of dictators, of political parties, and of pressure groups. The gold standard alone is what the nineteenth-century freedom-loving leaders (who championed representative government, civil liberties, and prosperity for all) called “sound money.”

  • All those intent upon sabotaging the evolution toward welfare, peace, freedom, and democracy loathed the gold standard, and not only on account of its economic significance. In their eyes the gold standard was the labarum, the symbol, of all those doctrines and policies they wanted to destroy.

  • The classical or orthodox gold standard alone is a truly effective check on the power of the government to inflate the currency. Without such a check all other constitutional safeguards can be rendered vain.

I do not want to close on a pessimistic note. Therefore, I offer this final quote from Ludwig von Mises, ever the optimist and ever the gentleman: “Every nation, whether rich or poor, powerful or feeble, can at any hour once again adopt the gold standard.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/04/2021 – 19:30






Author: Tyler Durden

Continue Reading

Precious Metals

First Majestic Silver Sees BMO Resume Coverage With $13.25 Price Target

On November 30th, First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX: FR) priced their convertible senior notes due in 2027. The company announced
The post First Majestic…

On November 30th, First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX: FR) priced their convertible senior notes due in 2027. The company announced that it will be issuing US$200 million in notes. The notes will bear a cash interest semi-annually at 0.375% per annum and the conversion will be 60.3865 common shares per US$100 principal. The company said it intends to use C$164.9 million to repurchase $125.2 million aggregate principal of its 1.875% convertible senior note.

First Majestic Silver currently has 5 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of C$20.34, or a 46% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 5 analysts, 2 analysts have to buy ratings and 3 have hold ratings. The street high sits at C$31.27 from H.C Wainwright while the lowest price target sits at C$13.25.

After the news, BMO Capital Markets resumed their coverage of First Majestic Silver with a C$13.25 price target, lowering it from the C$13.75 they had on the company beforehand. They also reiterated their market performance rating on the stock.

BMO says that they had a period of research restriction due to the senior note offering but since the deal has been priced they are now able to resume. They add that after using $164.9 million of the proceeds to repurchase the existing 1.875% notes, those notes will have roughly $31.1 million remaining and expect the remaining to be converted into 3.3 million shares.

Below you can see the updated BMO’s updated.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post First Majestic Silver Sees BMO Resume Coverage With $13.25 Price Target appeared first on the deep dive.


Author: Justin Young

Continue Reading

Articles

Already-scarce battery & energy metals facing more pressure from fossil-fuel phase-out

2021.12.04
For all their successes building Europe’s strongest economy, the Germans have made some pretty dumb moves regarding energy policy.
In 2002,…

Already-scarce battery & energy metals facing more pressure from fossil-fuel phase-out

2021.12.04

For all their successes building Europe’s strongest economy, the Germans have made some pretty dumb moves regarding energy policy.

In 2002, Germany enacted a law to phase out nuclear power, but the government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel decided in 2010 to extend the lifetimes of the country’s reactors by an average of 12 years. This was based on the judgment that Germany would not be able to meet its power demand using renewable energy sources – wind and solar power – nor could it meet the government’s ambitious goal of a 40% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 burning more coal and natural gas.

Then, playing populist politics and over-reacting to the partial meltdowns in Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, Merkel’s government immediately shut down almost half of the country’s nuclear power. Germany, overnight, decided 40% of its nuclear power capacity would be eliminated, and removed 8,800 megawatts (MW) from the grid; the remaining 12,700 MW of nuclear-supplied electricity will be gone by 2022.

The country rapidly approaching that deadline, Germany has moved to shut down six nuclear plants or 8.5 gigawatts (1GW = 1,000MW) by the end of next year. Three of its newest and best plants are due to close in just over a month, removing 4.05GW, equivalent to the average electricity consumption of Denmark, from northern Europe’s power grid.

Germany also plans to take all its natural gas plants offline by 2038.

According to Clean Energy Wire, the country in the first six months of this year got 41.4% of its power from renewables; 17.8% from lignite, a form of coal; 16.7% from natural gas, 11.7% from nuclear and 8.4% from hard coal. 

The real surprise here is not that Germany is following through on its 20-year-old nuclear phase-out, but the fact that the energy sources designed to take its place are so inadequate.

“Energiewiende” (energy transition) refers to Germany’s policy of increasing its share of renewables, and phasing out nuclear power, which before Fukushima amounted to about 25% of the country’s total electricity load.

However Germany’s production of solar and wind power has failed expectations, with the gap between supply and demand having to be met by nuclear and coal, and consumers faced with horrendous power bills.

A recent analysis by Verivox found that Germany’s US$0.45 per kilowatt hour is the third-highest-priced electricity in the European Union (behind the Czech Republic and Romania) and more expensive that all the other G20 countries.

In 2021, due to unfavorable weather conditions, the country’s production of wind and solar power for the first three quarters plummeted compared to the same period in 2020, with onshore wind producing 18% less, 14% less from offshore plants, and solar energy producing only half as much.

Despite energiewiende, Germany’s energy sources this year were dirtier than previously, with hard coal consumption 20% higher from January to September and electricity and heat generation from hard coal increasing by 28%. (Germany has two types of coal, hard coal and lignite). Coal-fired power production is considered to be the worst form of electricity generation for the environment, despite power plant companies’ use of scrubbers and claims of “clean coal”.

The irony is, notwithstanding the country’s disdain for fossil fuels and nuclear energy, if it wasn’t for these traditional base-load sources, deployed to make up for the failure of solar and wind to deliver as expected, Germany would have been facing black-outs.

In fact parts of the country could still be plunged into darkness if Germany’s ill-conceived plan to retire three nuclear power plants in the middle of winter without a reliable source of replacement power comes to pass.

Infographic by Peter Bardland

Germany of course isn’t the only country whose near-religious zeal to convert to clean energy has run up against astronomical power prices. Closer to home, we have the example of Ontario.

The provincial Liberals decided to build gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville as part of a commitment to end coal-produced power in Ontario. However after local opposition, they canceled the plants at a cost of CAD$1 billion. In 2015 under the watch of then-Premier Kathleen Wynne, an auditor general’s report found that Ontarians had paid $37 billion more for power than they should have between 2006 and 2014, because the province had allowed exorbitant prices for wind, solar and other alternative energy sources.

Battery & energy metals

The shift to renewable energy and the electrification of the global transportation system doesn’t happen without a major push to mine more metals. Copper for electric vehicle motors, charging stations and electrical transmission lines; lithium for Li-ion batteries; and graphite for the anode part of the battery are in high demand now, and the need for them is only going to increase, as governments push for stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit global temperature rise.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF), by 2030 consumption of lithium and nickel will be at least five times current levels, demand for cobalt used in EV batteries will be 70% higher, and copper, manganese, iron, phosphorous and graphite — all needed in clean energy technologies and to expand electricity grids — will see sharp spikes in demand.

This is nothing new from our perspective. AOTH has been covering the markets for these in-demand “future-facing metals” for years. High demand is occurring at the same time as a supply crunch is taking hold, particularly for copper, lithium and nickel, which is shoring up prices and driving the valuations of deposits containing these metals higher.

For example, the EV battery market alone is projected to consume well over 1.6 million tonnes of flake graphite per year, resulting in a 10-fold increase in demand by 2030. This is worrisome considering that total graphite mined in 2020 for all uses, including lump graphite for pencils and graphite used in nuclear reactors, was only 1.1 million tonnes.

It is estimated that the natural flake graphite market could reach a deficit as soon as 2023, with few new sources being developed around the world.

The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, both used in the Li-ion battery cathode, have soared this year on break-neck demand and tight supply. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts lithium demand to more than triple between 2020 and 2025, rising to an annual million tonnes and out-pacing supply by 200,000 tonnes.

Added to these structural supply deficits, supply chain bottlenecks relating to the covid-19 pandemic have further pressured prices, resulting in a disturbing trend for end-users known as “greenflation”. Indeed the costs associated with “going green” are starting to become a serious concern.

While low costs in relation to fossil fuel sources have been a driving force of the clean energy boom, this is beginning to change. Higher prices of the commodities needed for renewable energy are increasing the costs of setting up green power projects.

According to a recent article in Oilprice.com,

A 2019 report from the nonprofit Rocky Mountain Institute found that it was cheaper to build and use a combination of renewables like wind and solar than to build new natural gas plants. Another 2020 report from Carbon Tracker found that in every single one of the world’s energy markets, it’s cheaper to invest in renewables than in coal.

But this remarkable trend has now gone into reverse gear, with prices of metals such as tin, aluminum, copper, nickel, and cobalt, which are essential to energy transition technologies, climbing between 20% and 90% this year, thanks to massive global supply chain disruptions.

The piece by Alex Kimani goes a step further in predicting that “metals have been tipped to become the oil of the future,” with clean-energy technologies requiring more metals than their fossil fuel-based counterparts.

According to a recent Eurasia Review analysis, prices for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium could reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, with the total value of production rising more than four-fold for the period 2021-2040, and even rivaling the total value of crude oil production.

Rising greenflation could prove to be a big problem for countries hoping to lighten their carbon footprints. That’s because a colossal shift to renewables is seen as the only way of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, meaning rising costs could be “baked into” plans for electrification and decarbonization going forward.

According to BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook, getting to “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050 will require rapid scaling of investment in the energy transition over the next 10 years.

It says over 75% of the effort to cut emissions falls to the power sector; and that if the world is even get close to achieving its net-zero goal, we must accelerate deployment of low-carbon solutions, meaning even more wind, solar, batteries and electric vehicles than are being planned currently.

The report says the following milestones will need to be hit 2030 to be on track for net-zero by 2050:

  • Add 505 gigawatts of new wind power each year to 2030 (5.2 times the 2020 total)
  • Add 455 gigawatts of solar PV each year to 2030 (3.2 times the 2020 total)
  • Add 245 gigawatt-hours of batteries each year to 2030 (26 times the 2020 total)
  • Add 35 million EVs added to the road each year to 2030 (11 times the 2020 total)
  • Reduce coal-fired power generation 72% from 2019 levels by 2030, and retire up to around 70%, or 1,417 gigawatts, of coal-fired power capacity by 2030

NEF’s ‘Green Scenario’ requires an even more dramatic scale-up to renewables, with:

  • Wind: 25 terawatts in 2050, or average of 816 gigawatts installed per year to 2050
  • Solar: 20 terawatts in 2050, or average of 632 gigawatts installed per year to 2050
  • Batteries: 7.7 terawatt-hours in 2050, or average of 257 gigawatt-hours installed per year

One of the most important takeaways from New Energy Outlook 2021 is this statement:

Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require as much as $173 trillion in investments in the energy transition.

Part of that huge investment should be a significant, to put it mildly, earmarking of public and private money that would go into a major ramp-up of mining the materials required for making the global shift from fossil fuels to renewables.

The mining industry is going to need help in finding and developing new sources of copper, lithium and graphite, what I have deemed The Big Three Commodities of Electrification and Decarbonization.

Unfortunately, however, the task is being made that much harder by more supply-related curve balls being thrown.

Graphite

Let’s start with graphite.

Tesla’s Elon Musk has been complaining about the high cost of graphite needed to make electric-vehicle battery anodes. There is no substitute for this unique mineral, which along with diamonds, is the only source of natural carbon. Graphite is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity, making it an ideal anode material.

Tesla and SK Innovation, the Korean battery-maker building two new plants in the US, are among the hundreds of auto-industry players reportedly asking for tariff waivers on parts and materials imported from China.

The tariffs were imposed during the US-China trade war, most of which are still in place. Among them is a 25% levy on synthetic graphite.

As we have previously written, China really has the US over a barrel when it comes to graphite. Because China controls the market for coated spherical graphite, the only kind suitable for an EV battery’s anode, the United States is 100% dependent on a foreign supplier. Tesla confirmed as much when it stated in a public comment, via CNBC, that only mainland China could provide the quantity of graphite it needs in flake or powder form to manufacture its batteries in the U.S.

“As a result of Tesla’s due diligence process for suppliers of artificial graphite, globally and in the United States, Tesla has concluded that no company in the United States is currently capable of producing artificial graphite to the required specifications and capacity needed for Tesla’s production,” Tesla wrote.

The situation isn’t going to get better anytime soon.

Doubts have been raised over whether China can keep up with surging global demand. The top graphite producer has already taken steps to retain its graphite resources by restricting its export quota and imposed a 20% export duty.

Metal Bulletin reported in October that Chinese graphite prices are likely heading higher in the last quarter of this year due to rising electricity costs and reduced power supply, as well as insufficient inventories and inadequate availability of feedstock for spherical graphite processing.

Lithium

The majority of the world’s lithium brine production is in the “lithium triangle” spanning, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. In 2020 Chile was the second-largest producer of the crucial battery ingredient, mining 18,000 tonnes.

Importantly, it is also the world’s largest copper producer.

For many years Chile’s pro-mining government made the country a focus for investment, however its recent lurch to the left is casting doubts on how much of a player the former bastion of free-market policies and privatization will be.

Currently in the midst of an election campaign, front-running leftist presidential candidate Gabriel Boric this week talked up his plans for a state lithium firm, and according to Reuters, slammed the Andean country’s “historic error” of privatizing its resources.

Copper

Chile has also proposed legislation that would see copper mine profits taxed at 75%. State-owned Codelco is the world’s largest red-metal producer in the world, and presumably is the model Boric envisions for creating a national lithium company.

Next door in Peru, the second-largest copper producer, the new leftist government led by Pedro Castillo is seeking to impose a 70% tax on copper mining profits, which would discourage further spending on existing and future projects.

Resource nationalism of a different sort has forced the closure of one of the country’s largest copper mines. Chinese miner MMG will reportedly end production from Las Bambas by mid-December following months-long road blockades that have prevented supplies from reaching the operation.

A dirt road used to transport copper is at the heart of the dispute with local communities, who want compensation for the land used to build the road and alleged damage to their crops. In all 400 production days have been lost since 2016, including a three-week-long roadblock protest at the end of 2020 that prevented MMG from exporting 189,000 tonnes of copper concentrate worth $530 million.  

Meanwhile in the DRC, Africa’s top copper producer, the Chinese embassy is apparently telling its nationals to leave three provinces where mining takes place, following a spate of attacks on Chinese working in the country’s mining industry.

According to Texas-based geopolitical consultancy Stratfor, an attack on Nov. 24 against an artisanal gold mine in Ituri province left four people dead, including two Chinese nationals. The other two provinces of concern are North Kivu and South Kivu, where small-scale artisanal mining is common.

Infamous for its wars, child labor and appalling working conditions, last year about 1,300 civilians were killed in the DRC over eight months, involving armed groups and government forces in the eastern part of the country. More than half a million were forced from their homes.

Militants often attack villages as a ruse for stealing metals and selling them on the black market.

The attack on Chinese marks a new development in conflict-ridden Africa, where Chinese companies have tried to win local support for mining through the building of schools, water systems, roads and other infrastructure. Perhaps that is not enough anymore and the locals are getting more desperate.

Conclusion

All of the above manifestations of resource nationalism — Chinese mining employees being attacked in the DRC, copper producers in Chile and Peru facing higher taxes, a possible nationalization of Chile’s lithium industry, and Chinese quotas/ export duties on graphite — are on top of existing structural supply issues for key electrification & decarbonization graphite, lithium and copper. Anti-mining governments or governments that don’t appear to govern at all, like the DRC, make increasing mine output to meet higher demand all that much harder.

And with decarbonization agendas being rolled out by several countries including the United States, which just passed $2.8 trillion in new infrastructure and climate-related investments, the demand side of the equation is only going to strengthen.

(While some US politicians like Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowsi “get” the need to support a “mine to battery to EV” supply chain in North America, the best the US government can is to provide consumer incentives. For example Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act would raise the EV purchase credit to $12,500 from $7,500, making it one of the most aggressive EV incentives in the world)

They need to do more.

Countries like Germany are phasing out nuclear and coal-fired plants but have not yet achieved the renewable power capacity needed to replace shuttered power-generation facilities.

Yet the only plan in town, so to speak, is renewables, if the goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is to be met.

This means an incredible ramp-up of renewable power is needed, with all the required metals that go along with that.

Without security of supply, though, it’s all but impossible for mining companies to reach that level of production. As the example of Tesla and graphite has shown, the total dependence on Chinese graphite imports for making electric cars in the United States means the only way of lowering costs is to urge the US government to reduce tariffs on what is increasingly becoming a hostile power whose geopolitical interest are counter to America’s and most Western countries. (the US also relies on Russia for many critical metals, such as palladium and nickel)

The trick is sourcing production locally, instead of relying on foreign suppliers and paying exorbitant shipping costs to get the raw materials from battery-making facilities in Asia to North American auto assembly plants.

There are no doubt several companies with the capability of adding to a North American battery supply chain. We could actually start building a locally-sourced, locally-made battery supply chain, from mine to battery to electric car.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
subscribe to my free newsletter

Legal Notice / Disclaimer

Ahead of the Herd newsletter, aheadoftheherd.com, hereafter known as AOTH.

Please read the entire Disclaimer carefully before you use this website or read the newsletter. If you do not agree to all the AOTH/Richard Mills Disclaimer, do not access/read this website/newsletter/article, or any of its pages. By reading/using this AOTH/Richard Mills website/newsletter/article, and whether you actually read this Disclaimer, you are deemed to have accepted it.

Any AOTH/Richard Mills document is not, and should not be, construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.

AOTH/Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified.

AOTH/Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness.

Expressions of opinion are those of AOTH/Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice.

AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.

Furthermore, AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this AOTH/Richard Mills Report.

You agree that by reading AOTH/Richard Mills articles, you are acting at your OWN RISK. In no event should AOTH/Richard Mills liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained in AOTH/Richard Mills articles. Information in AOTH/Richard Mills articles is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. AOTH/Richard Mills is not suggesting the transacting of any financial instruments.

Our publications are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security – no information posted on this site is to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to do anything involving finance or money aside from performing your own due diligence and consulting with your personal registered broker/financial advisor.

AOTH/Richard Mills recommends that before investing in any securities, you consult with a professional financial planner or advisor, and that you should conduct a complete and independent investigation before investing in any security after prudent consideration of all pertinent risks.  Ahead of the Herd is not a registered broker, dealer, analyst, or advisor. We hold no investment licenses and may not sell, offer to sell, or offer to buy any security.








Author: Gail Mills

Continue Reading

Trending