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Futures Rise Boosted By JNJ Split As Treasuries, Dollar Slide

Futures Rise Boosted By JNJ Split As Treasuries, Dollar Slide

U.S. equity index futures were slightly up at the end of a volatile week, trading…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

Futures Rise Boosted By JNJ Split As Treasuries, Dollar Slide

U.S. equity index futures were slightly up at the end of a volatile week, trading in a narrow 20 point range for the second day in a row, while Treasuries resumed declines in response to the recent shock inflation data from the world’s largest economies.

Contracts on the three main U.S. gauges were higher, with Johnson & Johnson rising in premarket trading after saying it will split into two companies, while tech stocks again led gains at the end of a week scarred by deepening concerns over prolonged inflation. All the major U.S. indexes were set for a more than 1% weekly drop, their first since the week ended Oct. 1, as hot inflation numbers sapped investor sentiment and halted an earnings-driven streak of record closing highs. At 7:15 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 106 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 40.25points, or 0.25%.

The same bullish sentiment that lifted US futures pushed European shares up as luxury shares gained after Cartier owner Richemont posted better-than-forecast earnings, offsetting a drop in travel stocks. Asian shares also climbed, helped by a rally in Japan. At the same time, Treasuries resumed a selloff after a trading holiday Thursday, with this week’s shock US inflation figures still reverberating through the bond market. Five-year notes led losses on concern the price pressure will force the Federal Reserve to raise rates earlier than anticipated. A gauge of the yield curve flattened to the least since March 2020.

While global stocks are set for their first weekly drop since early October, their swings have been muted compared with the gyrations in the bond market. Investor focus on a strong earnings season has tempered worries about higher inflation.

“Inflation could remain elevated in the coming months, and each inflation release that comes in above expectations has the potential to cause volatility in rate and equity markets, but we still don’t expect inflation to derail the equity rally,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note.

In US premarket trading, Johnson & Johnson jumped 4.7% in premarket trading after the drugmaker said it is planning to break up into two companies focused on its consumer health division and the large pharmaceuticals unit. Shares of the GAMMA giga techs (fka as FAAMG) also inched up. Tesla’s boss Elon Musk sold even more shares of the electric car maker, regulatory filings showed, after offloading about $5 billion worth of stock following a poll he posted on Twitter. The sale news naturally pushed TSLA stock price higher.  A gauge of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks jumped more than 5%, helped by Alibaba’s blowout Singles’ Day shopping festival and a report that Didi is getting ready to relaunch its apps. Rivian shares gain as much as 5% in U.S. premarket trading, extending the surge for the EV maker seen since its IPO this week which has sent its market value over $100b. Rivian trading at $122.99 in at 5am in New York, compared to IPO price of $78

Rising price pressures across the globe have been a top concern for market participants, with focus now shifting towards how consumer spending would fare as the holiday shopping season approaches.

“The risk-on trading stance remains,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades in London. “However, markets are likely to remain volatile as investors will need to have more clues on where both the economy and monetary policies are going.”

In Europe, gains for consumer and retail stocks balanced out declines for mining and energy companies. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fluctuated as Bank of America strategists predicted a fall of at least 10% for the continent’s equities by early next year. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Richemont shares jump as much as 9.8% to a record high, with analysts seeing scope for earnings estimates to be upgraded after the company reported first-half results that Citigroup described as “stellar.” Peer Swatch also bounced.
  • Renault shares gain as much as 4.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the French automaker to overweight, saying it should have a stronger 2022 if it can raise production levels from a currently low base.
  • Deutsche Telekom rises as much as 3% with analysts highlighting a good revenue performance and upgraded earnings and cash flow guidance as key positives from its earnings.
  • Intertrust shares surge as much as 40% after the trust and corporate-services firm entered talks to be acquired by private-equity firm CVC.
  • AstraZeneca falls as much as 5.9% after the drugmaker’s 3Q results missed estimates, with analysts noting a big miss for cancer drug Tagrisso.
  • Wise shares sink as much as 8.8% after the money-transfer company won’t be added to an MSCI index in the latest rejig as some investors had expected. JDE Peet’s, Atos and Investor AB also all moved after the MSCI review.
  • Fortum shares decline as much as 3.6% after the Finnish utility’s 3Q sales missed estimates. Uniper, in which Fortum owns a 75% stake, also slid after Fortum said it stopped share purchases in the German group in July owing to high prices.
  • Avon Protection plummet as much as 44% after it warned of testing failures for some body-armor plates ordered by the U.S. military.
  • SimCorp shares drop as much as 7.1% after the financial software and services company’s 3Q earnings, with Handelsbanken calling the quarter “weak,” and saying it raises doubts for the 2022 outlook

Earlier in the session, Asia’s regional benchmark advanced, on track for a second day of gains, after sales in the Singles’ Day shopping festival boosted optimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, with materials and communication stocks driving the benchmark. Tencent climbed 1.6%, after it bought a Japanese game studio and sold HengTen Networks shares. JD.com gained 5.2% after it received record Singles’ Day orders. Adding to sentiment were the mandate for China’s President Xi Jinping to potentially rule for life, which may mean policy continuity and fewer regulatory surprises and Goldman Sachs’ upgrade of offshore China stocks. A report that Didi Global is getting ready to relaunch apps in China further fueled optimism. “Investors are hoping that greenshoots of a loosening of reforms are upon us,” said Justin Tang head of Asian research at United First Partners.

It’s clear “tech shares got a little boost from Singles’ Day and the anointing of Xi as forever leader.” JD.com Shines in Muted Singles Day After Sales Beat: Street Wrap South Korea and Japan benchmarks posted the top gains in the region. Australia’s shares also advanced, boosted by mining stocks.

Japanese equities also rose, following gains in U.S. peers, erasing virtually all of their losses from earlier in the week. Electronics makers and telecoms were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 1.3%. All 33 industry groups were in the green except energy products. Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.1% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen has weakened more than 1% against the dollar since Tuesday. “It’s a favorable environment for risk-taking thanks to China,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management in Tokyo, referring to Evergrande’s latest interest payment. Rising U.S. yields and a weaker yen “may serve as a trigger for foreign investors to re-evaluate Japanese equities and shift their focus to stocks here.”

Indian stocks also rose, snapping three sessions of declines, boosted by gains in software exporter Infosys. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 1.3% to 60,686.69 to a two-week high and completed a second successive week of gains with a 1% advance. The NSE Nifty 50 Index increased 1.3% on Friday. All 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a measure of technology companies. In earnings, of the 45 Nifty 50 companies that have announced results so far, 29 have either met or exceeded consensus analyst expectations, 15 have missed estimates, while one couldn’t be compared. Oil & Natural Gas Corp. and Coal India are among those scheduled to announce results today.  Expectations of the U.S. Fed raising interest rates earlier than expected after a surge in inflation weighed on most emerging markets this week. In India, consumer prices probably quickened for the first time in five months in October, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. The data will be released on Friday after market hours.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, even as the dollar added to gains versus most its Group-of-10 peers, and Treasury yields rose across the curve on concern that rising U.S. inflation would warrant earlier rate hikes. The euro hovered around a more than a one-year low of $1.1450. The pound extended an Asia session advance and was the best performer among G-10 peers; the currency still heads for a third week of losses, having touched its lowest level since Christmas and options suggest the move may have legs to follow. Australian and New Zealand dollars are headed for back-to-back weekly declines as rising Treasury yields stoke further demand for the greenback; A 60% drop in the price of iron ore signals a blow to the Australian government’s efforts to stabilize the fiscal position following massive spending to support the economy through the coronavirus pandemic.Meanwhile, the ruble extended its losses, tracking a decline in Brent crude, as tensions flared up between Russia and Western nations over energy supplies and migrants. The currency tumbled as much as 1.1% to 72.4375 per dollar after the U.S. sounded out its EU allies that Russia may invade Ukraine. That made the ruble the worst performing currency in emerging markets. 

In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, but cheaper by 2bp-3bp across belly of the curve which underperforms as reopened cash market catches up with Thursday’s slide in futures. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.566%, cheaper by 2bp on the day, while 5-year topped at 1.262% in early Asia session; curve is flatter amid belly-led losses, with 5s30s spread tighter by ~1bp on the day after touching 63.7bp, lowest since March 2020. On the 2s5s30s fly, belly cheapened 3.5bp on the day, re-testing 2018 levels that were highest since 2008.

Bunds advanced, led by the front end, while Italian bonds slid across the curve, pushing the 10-year yield above 1% for the first time since Nov. 4, as money markets held on to aggressive ECB rate-hike bets. The Asia session was relatively calm, while during the European morning, Italian bonds lagged as futures continue to price in aggressive ECB policy. Treasury options activity in U.S. session has included downside protection on 5-year sector, where yields reached YTD high.    

In commodities, crude futures dip to lowest levels for the week: WTI drops 1.4% before finding support near $80, Brent dips 1% back onto a $81-handle. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,852/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME aluminum, nickel and tin post modest gains, copper and zinc lag.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November, as well as the JOLTS job openings for September. In the Euro Area, there’ll also be industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from New York Fed President Williams, ECB Chief Economist Lane, and the BoE’s Haskel.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,646.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 485.18
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 199.85
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 653.35
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 29,609.97
  • Topix up 1.3% to 2,040.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 25,327.97
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,539.10
  • Sensex up 1.3% to 60,697.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,443.05
  • Kospi up 1.5% to 2,968.80
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $81.83/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,853.43
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.20
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.23%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1441

Top Overnight News From Bloomberg

  • Inflation is soaring across the euro area, but it’s also diverging by the most in years in a further complication for the European Central Bank’s ongoing pandemic stimulus
  • The White House is debating whether to act immediately to try to lower U.S. energy prices or hold off on dramatic measures in the hope markets settle, as President Joe Biden’s concern about inflation runs up against climate, trade and foreign policy considerations
  • Reports U.S. is concerned that Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine are “empty and unfounded efforts to exacerbate tensions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says on conference call
  • Financial problems faced by institutions like China Evergrande Group are “controllable” and spillovers from the nation’s markets to the rest of the world are limited, a former central bank adviser said
  • Hapag-Lloyd AG warned that a crunch in global container shipments could persist into next year, with labor negotiations, environmental pressures and disruptive weather combining to hamper goods flows
  • Japan’s government plans to compile an economic stimulus package of more than 40 trillion yen ($350 billion) in fiscal spending, according to the Nikkei newspaper
  • President Xi Jinping appeared more certain than ever to rule China well into the current decade, as senior Communist Party officials declared that the country had reached a new “historical starting point” under his leadership
  • Italian President Sergio Mattarella tried to quash speculation that he could stay on for a second term, leaving Prime Minister Mario Draghi as the top contender for the role early next year

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher heading into the weekend as the region attempted to build on the somewhat mixed performance stateside, where price action was contained amid Veterans Day and with US equity futures also slightly picking up from the quasi-holiday conditions. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was lifted in which mining stocks and the tech industry spearheaded the broad gains across sectors aside from healthcare as Ramsay Health Care remained pressured after it recently announced a near-40% decline in Q1 net profit. Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) was underpinned with Japanese exporters benefitting from recent favourable currency flows and with the biggest stock movers influenced by a deluge of earnings. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were indecisive with Hong Kong tech stocks encouraged after e-commerce retailers Alibaba and JD.com posted record Singles Day sales, despite a deceleration in revenue growth from the shopping festival to its slowest annual pace since its conception in 2009 amid a toned-down event due to Beijing’s tech crackdown and emphasis on common prosperity. Conversely, mainland bourses were indecisive following a neutral liquidity operation by the PBoC and after US President Biden recently signed the Secure Equipment Act which prevents companies deemed as security threats from receiving new equipment licences from US regulators, which comes ahead of Monday’s potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower due to a lack of momentum from US treasuries as cash bond markets were closed for the federal holiday, with demand for JGBs also hampered by the gains in stocks and lack of BoJ purchases in the government debt market.

Top European News

  • Macron and Draghi Have Plans to Fill the Void Left by Merkel
  • Johnson Burns Through Political Capital Built Up With Tory MPs
  • JPMorgan Hires Zahn as Head of DACH Equity Capital Markets
  • Hapag-Lloyd CEO Says Global Shipping Crunch Could Extend in 2022

European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.1%) have seen a relatively directionless start to the session with the Stoxx 600 set to close the week out with modest gains of around 0.4%. Macro updates have been particularly sparse thus far with today’s data docket also relatively light (highlights include US JOLTS and Uni. of Michigan sentiment). The handover from the APAC region was a predominantly positive one as Japanese equities benefited from favourable currency dynamics and Chinese markets focused on the fallout from Singles Day which saw record sales for Alibaba and JD.com. Stateside, futures are also relatively directionless (ES -0.1%) ahead of aforementioned US data points and Fedspeak from NY Fed President Williams (voter), who will be speaking on heterogeneity in macroeconomics. The latest BofA Flow Show revealed USD 7.3bln of inflows for US equities, whilst tech stocks saw outflows of USD 1.6bln; the largest outflow since June. In Europe, equities saw their largest outflows in seven weeks with USD 1.7bln of selling. In a separate note, BofA projects 10+% of downside by early next year for European stocks amid weakening growth momentum and rising bond yields. Sectors in Europe are mixed with outperformance seen in Personal & Household Goods with Richemont (+8.6%) shares boosted following better-than-expected Q3 results. LVMH (+1.4%) also gained at the open following reports that the Co. could consider opening duty-free stores in China. Telecom names are firmer with Deutsche Telekom (+2.6%) one of the best performers in the DAX after posting solid results and raising guidance. To the downside, commodity-exposed names are lagging peers with Basic Resources and Oil & Gas names hampered by price action in their underlying markets. FTSE-100 heavyweight AstraZeneca (-4.4%) sits at the foot of the index after Q3 profits fell short of expectations. Finally, Renault (+4.3%) is the best performer in the CAC after being upgraded to overweight from equalweight at Morgan Stanley with MS expecting the Co. to have a better year next year.

Top Asian News

  • JPMorgan Japan Stocks Downgrade Shows Doubts Before Stimulus
  • Japan Stimulus Package to Top 40 Trillion Yen, Nikkei Reports
  • Hon Hai Warns Chip Shortage Will Outweigh IPhone Boost to Sales
  • AirAsia X Gets Over 95% Support From Creditors for Revamp

In FX, it would be far too premature to suggest that the Buck’s winning streak is over, but having rallied so far in relatively short order some consolidation is hardly surprising, especially on a Friday in between a semi US market holiday and the weekend. Hence, the index is hovering just above 95.000 within a 95.078-266 range after a minor extension from yesterday’s peak to set a new 2021 best, and the Dollar is on a more mixed footing vs basket components plus other G10 and EM counterparts, awaiting the return of those not in on Veteran’s Day, JOLTS, preliminary Michigan sentiment and Fed’s Williams for some fresh or additional impetus and direction.

  • GBP/CAD – The Pound and Loonie are flanking the major ranks even though the latest retreat in Brent and WTI is pretty uniform from a change on the day in Usd terms perspective, so it seems like Sterling is getting a boost from a downturn in the Eur/Gbp cross ahead of the UK-EU showdown on Brexit and Article 16, while Usd/Cad remains bullish on technical impulses before the BoC’s Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey. Cable has bounced from just over 1.3350 to retest 1.3400 with Eur/Gbp probing 0.8550 to the downside, but Usd/Cad is probing 1.2600 irrespective of the Greenback stalling.
  • AUD/JPY – Both fractionally firmer as the Buck takes another breather, though the Aussie is also deriving some traction from favourable Aud/Nzd tailwinds again. Aud/Usd has pared losses sub-0.7300 as the cross hovers around 1.0400, while Usd/Jpy has retreated from around 114.30 towards 1.9 bn option expiries at the 114.00 strike amidst reports that the Japanese Government’s economic stimulus package will increase to Yen 40+ tn in fiscal spending, according to the Nikkei citing sources.
  • EUR/NZD/CHF – The Euro is still hanging in following its close below a key technical level for a second consecutive session and fall further from the psychological 1.1500 mark, especially as better than forecast Eurozone ip has not prompted any upside, However, option expiry interest at 1.1450 (1.2 bn) may keep Eur/Usd afloat if only until the NY cut. Similarly, the Kiwi has not gleaned anything via a decent pick-up in NZ’s manufacturing PMI as Nzd/Usd clings to 0.7000+ status and the Franc remains under 0.9200 regardless of an acceleration in Swiss import and producer prices.
  • SCANDI/EM – More transitory inflation remarks from Riksbank Governor Ingves are not helping the Sek fend off another dip through 10.0000 vs the Eur. but the Nok is getting protection from weaker oil prices via unusually large option expiries spanning the same big figure given 1.2 bn at 9.7500, 1.7 bn on the round number and 1 bn at 10.2000. Conversely, the Rub is underperforming as tensions rise around the Russian/Ukraine border and the Kremlin aims blame at the feet of the US alongside NATO, while the Try only just survived the latest assault on 10.00000 against the Usd in wake of below forecast Turkish ip and CBRT survey-based CPI projections for year end rising again. Elsewhere, the Mxn is softer following confirmation of a 25 bp Banxico hike on the basis that the verdict was not unanimous and some were looking for +50 bp, but the Zar retains an underlying bid after Thursday’s supportive SA MTBS and with Eskom reporting no load shedding at present, while the Cnh and Cny are holding gains in advance of the virtual Chinese/US Presidential meeting scheduled for Monday.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are pressured in the European morning, experiencing more pronounced downside after a gradual decline occurred in APAC hours. However, the magnitude of today’s performance is comparably minimal when placed against that seen earlier in the week and particularly on Wednesday; in-spite of the earlier pronounced movements, benchmarks are currently set to end the week with losses of less than USD 1.00/bbl – albeit the range is in excess of USD 5.00/bbl. Newsflow this morning has been minimal and thus yesterday’s themes remain in-focus where a firmer USD likely continues to factor but more specifically COVID-19 concerns, with Germany’s Spahn on the wires, and geopolitics via Russia drawing attention. On the latter, tensions are becoming increasingly inflamed as the US said they are concerned that Russia could attack Ukraine and in response Russia said they are not a threat to anyone, but, says US military activity is aggressive and a threat. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are softer on the session, but remain notably firmer on the week given the CPI-induced move. On this, UBS highlights the risk of additional inflation strength next year which could stoke further gold demand. Elsewhere, base metals are, broadly speaking, marginally softer given tentative APAC performance and the aforementioned COVID concerns, particularly those pertinent for China. In terms of associated bank commentary, SocGen looks for copper to average USD 9.2k/T and USD 8.0k/T in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.3m, prior 10.4m
  • 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.9%, prior 4.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.9%
  • 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 72.5, prior 71.7; Current Conditions, est. 77.2, prior 77.7; Expectations, est. 68.8, prior 67.9

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

there wasn’t much to speak of in markets yesterday as US bond markets were closed for Veterans Day and investors elsewhere continued to digest the bumper CPI print from the previous session. We did see a bit of residual concern at the prospect of a faster tightening in monetary policy, and implied rates on Eurodollar futures continued to climb, gaining between +4bps and +8bps on contracts maturing through 2023. However, on the whole equities were relatively unfazed on both sides of the Atlantic, and the S&P 500 (+0.06%) stabilised after 2 successive declines thanks to a bounceback among the more cyclical sectors.

Looking at those moves in more depth, interest-sensitive tech stocks were a big outperformer yesterday as both the NASDSAQ (+0.52%) and the FANG+ index (+0.98%) of megacap tech stocks moved higher. Material stocks in the S&P (+0.85%) were another sectoral winner, and the VIX index of volatility (-1.07pts) ticked down from its 4-week high on Wednesday. In Europe, the advance was even more prominent, where the STOXX 600 (+0.32%), the DAX (+0.10%) and the CAC 40 (+0.20%) all reached fresh records. Indeed, for the STOXX 600, that now marks the 13th advance in the last 15 sessions, with the index having risen by over +6% in the space of a month.

As mentioned, it was a quieter day for sovereign bond markets with the US not trading, but the sell-off continued in Europe as yields on 10yr bunds (+1.7bps), OATs (+1.4bps) and BTPs (+2.7bps) all moved higher. We didn’t get any fresh news on the Fed officials either given the US holiday, but a Washington Post article yesterday said that officials from the White House had stayed in touch with Governor Brainard since her meeting with President Biden last week, albeit still emphasising that no final decision had yet been made. Separately, Bloomberg reported that senior Biden advisors did not view the recent trading scandal at the Federal Reserve as disqualifying Chair Powell.

US Treasury markets have reopened overnight, with 10yr yields following their European counterparts higher, moving up +1.4bps to 1.563%. That’s been driven by a +2.4bps rise in the real yield, though 10yr real yields still remain close to their all-time lows since TIPS started trading back in 1997. Otherwise in Asia, markets are mostly trading higher with the KOSPI (+1.48%), Nikkei (+1.07%) and Hang Seng (+0.22%) all advancing, though the Shanghai Composite (-0.01%) is basically unchanged whilst the CSI (-0.31%) is trading lower. Data showed further signs of inflationary pressures in the region, with South Korea’s import price index up +35.8% in October on a year-on-year basis, the highest since 2008. Elsewhere in India, Prime Minister Modi is expected to announce an opening up of the sovereign bond market to retail investors today, which comes amidst rising inflation concerns as well. Looking ahead, futures are indicating a positive start in the US and Europe with those on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) and the DAX (+0.15%) pointing higher.

Turning to the geopolitical scene, it was reported by Bloomberg that US officials had briefed their counterparts in the EU about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. It follows a build-up in Russian forces near the Ukrainian border that have been reported more widely, and echoes a similar situation back in the spring. The Russian ruble weakened -0.57% against the US dollar yesterday in response, with the declines occurring after the report came out. This comes amidst a number of broader tensions in the region, and natural gas prices in Europe were up +6.66% yesterday after Belarus’ President Lukashenko threatened to cut the transit of gas if the EU placed additional sanctions on his regime.

Meanwhile on Brexit, there were potential signs of compromise in the dispute over Northern Ireland, with the Telegraph reporting that the EU was prepared to improve its offer when it came to reducing customs checks. However, the report also said that this would be contingent on the UK ending its demands to remove the European Court of Justice’s role in overseeing the agreement. There has been growing speculation in recent days that the UK could be about to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures if the deal was causing serious issues. This would risk EU retaliation that could in theory even led to a suspension of the entire trade deal agreed last year, which is an option that has been talked up in recent weeks. For those wanting further reading on the issue, DB’s FX strategist Shreyas Gopal put out a note on Tuesday (link here) looking at the issues surrounding Article 16 and its implications for sterling.

Another important thing to keep an eye on over the coming weeks will be any further signs of deterioration in the Covid-19 situation. Cases have been ticking up at the global level for around 4 weeks now, and a number of European countries (including Germany) have seen a major surge over the last few days. In the Netherlands, they actually set a record for the entire pandemic yesterday, and Prime Minister Rutte is due to hold a press conference today where it’s been speculated he’ll announce fresh restrictions. Separately in Austria, Chancellor Schallenberg said that a lockdown for the unvaccinated was “probably unavoidable”, and said that “I don’t see why two-thirds should lose their freedom because one-third is dithering”.

On the data front, the only major release was the UK’s Q3 GDP reading yesterday, which surprised on the downside with growth of +1.3% (vs. +1.5% expected), even though Covid-19 restrictions were much easier in Q3 relative to Q2. To be fair, the monthly reading for September did surprise on the upside, with growth of +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected), but it came as July and August saw downward revisions. On a monthly basis, the September reading meant the UK economy was just -0.6% beneath its pre-pandemic size in February 2020.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November, as well as the JOLTS job openings for September. In the Euro Area, there’ll also be industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from New York Fed President Williams, ECB Chief Economist Lane, and the BoE’s Haskel.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/12/2021 – 07:48







Author: Tyler Durden

Articles

Ground Breakers: Costs rise for ASX gold miners as inflation bites

Gold miners have endured an arduous 2021 in equity markets. While cash has been easy to come by and deals … Read More
The post Ground Breakers: Costs…

Gold miners have endured an arduous 2021 in equity markets.

While cash has been easy to come by and deals are being done, most gold producers have been hit by poor sentiment as prices have struggled to break out.

Over the past year the All Ordinaries Gold Index has sagged around 20%.

Although most are still making good money, rising costs and the impact of inflation and labour challenges are also hitting miners in the hip pocket.

Metals Focus says the global average all in sustaining cost for gold miners hit its highest level since 2013 in the September quarter, rising 3.6% quarter on quarter to US$1123/oz.

Costs are on the rise for gold producers
Pic: Metals Focus

Australian miners were the worst off when it came to cost pressures, with costs in Australia climbing by an average of 13.1%.

Global AISC margins fell by 9% QoQ to US$667/oz, with Australia’s sliding 18%, Canada’s dropping 5% and Russia’s falling 7%.

Margins remain high historically speaking, and 94% of gold operations tracked by Metals Focus remain profitable.

“As might be expected, increasing costs and a lower gold price have squeezed margins in the September quarter,” they said.

“However it is worth noting that their margins are still substantially higher than in previous years.”

“Despite the relatively healthy margins, the lower gold price and rising costs are putting pressure on higher cost operators,” Metals Focus said.

“While the proportion of output that is profitable remains high at 94%, it has fallen from 98% in Q2.21. A number of operations and projects are already under strategic review with regards to increasing costs.”

Costs are up for goldies for the fourth straight quarter
A few more gold miners are touching the margins. Pic: Metals Focus

“If cost inflation persists and margins diminish even further it is likely that development project approvals will be delayed and also possible that the highest cost production of more marginal producers could potentially be closed.”

Although global average head grades rose 0.5% (5% in Australia), inflationary pressures including crude oil prices, rising salaries amid Covid restrictions, labour shortages and turnover, and the cost of equipment due to supply chain issues drove up operating costs for the fourth straight quarter.

Markets reacted badly this morning to news of the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant around the world, with materials sliding 1.19% this morning.

Chalice soars on new Julimar discovery

Market darling is a phrase that doesn’t quite cut it with Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN), which is up 60 times over since making the Gonneville nickel-copper-PGE discovery 70km north of Perth early last year.

Shares jumped more than 4% this morning after Chalice announced another discovery at Julimar, where last month it declared Gonneville the world’s biggest nickel sulphide discovery in 20 years and Australia’s first major platinum group elements resource.

The new mineralised intrusion is an ultramafic unit to the west of Gonneville, separated by around 70m of metasediments.

Located immediately south of the 6.5km Hartog anomaly, Chalice struck 3m at 2g/t palladium, 0.3g/t platinum, 0.6% nickel, 0.5% copper and 0.05% cobalt for a 1.7% nickel equivalent from 68m in one hole.

The second mineralised intercept struck 2m at 1.8g/t Pd, 0.2g/t Pt, 0.6% Ni, 0.5% Cu and 0.06% Co for a 1.9%NiEq from 139.2m.

The discovery did not show up on EM, “highlighting the potential for further blind discoveries” according to Chalice.

While Chalice has already drilled around 180,000m at Julimar, part of its value proposition is the idea that more will be found with the Gonneville resource accounting for just 7% of the 26km strike of the Julimar complex.

It has submitted a conservation management plan to get at the Hartog target, which will be a bit more thorny because unlike previous drilling which has been located on private farmland, Hartog lies beneath the Julimar State Forest.

Chalice says its CMP for drilling the Hartog-Baudin targets is sitting with the WA Government and it expects approvals shortly.

Chalice Mining share price today:

 

The post Ground Breakers: Costs rise for ASX gold miners as inflation bites appeared first on Stockhead.




Author: Josh Chiat

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QMines tops the class with second resource update just a few months after listing

Special Report: In just the six short months since making its debut on the ASX, QMines has delivered its second … Read More
The post QMines tops the…

In just the six short months since making its debut on the ASX, QMines has delivered its second resource estimate for the Mt Chalmers copper-gold project, which is 38% higher than the previous estimate and largely in the higher confidence measured and indicated categories.

QMines (ASX:QML) has delivered an updated resource for its flagship Mt Chalmers project in Queensland of 5.8 million tonnes at 1.7% for 101,000 tonnes of contained copper equivalent, which includes for the first time measured and indicated resources.

Significantly, 78% of the updated resource falls into the higher confidence measured and indicated categories. This is important because it gives an explorer sufficient information on geology and grade continuity to support mine planning and allows the definition of a reserve.

The updated resource is not far off the 120,000 tonnes that respected Australian investment firm Shaw and Partners forecast for the latest resource upgrade in a research note in early October.

Shaw and Partners, however, anticipated the updated resource would still be 100% inferred. This attracted an increased 72c price target from the investment firm which is a nearly 90% premium to the 38c share price QMines is trading at currently.

QMines share price chart (ASX:QML)


 

So the fact that such a large chunk of the resource is in the measured and indicated categories is a big leap in terms of confidence in the resource and should be a positive signal to the market of QMines’ ability to over-deliver against the target.

“As the company only listed in May 2021, it is a fantastic achievement to be delivering a resource upgrade for our shareholders in such a short period of time,” executive chairman Andrew Sparke said.

“It is very pleasing to see that the upgraded resource has substantially grown in both size and confidence level, with the measured and indicated categories now comprising 78% of the overall resource.”

Offering further exploration upside, Sparke says QMines has identified several volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VHMS) prospects outside the known resource, which bodes well for further resource upgrades and the potential for future development.

A world class mine in the making

Mt Chalmers is already considered one of the world’s highest-grade gold-rich VHMS systems.

QMines has previously demonstrated the significant size potential and high-grade nature of the deposit, with recent peak grades of from a 15-hole, 2,182m diamond drilling program including 5.3% copper, 11.75 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, 243g/t silver, 33% zinc and 19% lead.

Those results, which were reported just last week, follow close on the heels of ‘bonanza’ grade copper, gold, silver, lead and zinc intercepts announced in October.

A major 30,000m drilling program continues unabated, with a third resource upgrade planned for the first half of 2022.

QMines

 

This article was developed in collaboration with QMines, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

 

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

The post QMines tops the class with second resource update just a few months after listing appeared first on Stockhead.






Author: Special Report

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Miramar finds ‘very large’ gold footprint at Glandore project

Special Report: Miramar has outlined shallow supergene gold anomalism over almost 5 kilometres of strike and across multiple targets at … Read More
The…

Miramar has outlined shallow supergene gold anomalism over almost 5 kilometres of strike and across multiple targets at its Glandore project in WA.

Multiple holes from the lake aircore drilling across the expanded Glandore East footprint returned and/or ended in results >0.25 g/t gold including hole GDAC037 which intersected 6m at 0.62 g/t from 12m and ended in 2m at 1.04 g/t.

Hole GDAC061 intersected 4m at 0.46 g/t and 4m at 0.61 g/t – and is approximately 400m south of historical aircore holes which intersected 6m at 1.33 g/t and 9m at 1.10 g/t (EOH).

The Glandore East footprint now extends for over 3km towards historic gold workings and remains open.

Follow up drilling planned in the new year

Miramar Resources’ (ASX:M2R) executive chairman Allan Kelly, said the recent lake drilling had identified a very substantial gold system at Glandore and greatly increased the potential for the discovery of gold mineralisation including that like the nearby Majestic and Trojan deposits.

“Our first pass lake drilling has outlined coherent supergene gold anomalism within multiple targets over almost five kilometres of strike which is a considerable proportion of the entire project area,” he said.

Miramar Resources
Glandore Project showing recent drilling and historical holes.

“Today’s results indicate the presence for multiple NE-trending mineralised structures within the granodiorite pluton extending over a significant strike length, along with coherent gold mineralisation across several other targets which will need to be followed up early in the new year.

“Gold mineralisation at Majestic and Trojan is also hosted in NE-striking structures within granitic intrusions, so our recent results indicate significant potential for a similar discovery at Glandore.”

The company will now plan for follow-up aircore drilling in the new year, and then plan for diamond drilling.

 


 

 

This article was developed in collaboration with Miramar Resources Limited, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

 

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

The post Miramar finds ‘very large’ gold footprint at Glandore project appeared first on Stockhead.



Author: Special Report

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