This article was originally published by Zero Hedge
“The Most Asymmetric Trade For The Coming Years” – Hedge Funds Flood Into Uranium Stocks
One month ago, we brought readers’ attention to one of our favorite market sectors which we have been recommending ever since Dec 2020 – uranium – which we were confident was set for a powerful move higher as a result of an auspicious confluence of technicals and fundamentals: on one hand, as delineated in “A Bitcoin-Like Opportunity In Uranium?“, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has emerged as a powerful buyer of physical uranium, which in a market as illiquid as uranium, would serve as a powerful catalyst to move prices of both the underlying commodity and various producers sharply higher (the subsequent upsizing of the Sprott Trust by $1 billion only assured that this price-indescriminate buying would continue). That’s precisely what happened. On the other hand, the recent global energy crisis has once again turned global attention to nuclear power as an efficient alternative to unreliable “green” energy, with countries from Japan to Finland and France hinting they are making preparations to restart NPPs.
In subsequent days we saw a record investor rush into uranium ETFs…
… coupled with a spike in retail buying as Uranium producer CCJ briefly became the most talked about stock on the Wall Street Bets forum.
And while the sector did see a modest pullback in the second half of September as the initial excitement over the move in uranium died down, a new leg higher may now be starting.
Only this time it’s not retail investors that are seeking to spark upward momentum, but much more patient hedge funds that are piling in.
As the FT wrote overnight, after years of stagnant prices, a 37% rally in prices for nuclear fuel uranium has helped attract investors back to the sector. Funds such as Ben Melkman’s New York-based Light Sky Macro, Anchorage Capital and Tribeca Investment Partners who have emerged as positive on the outlook for the raw material, as a global energy crunch highlights the role of nuclear power in a transition away from fossil fuels.
The price of raw uranium rose to its highest level since 2012 at $50 a pound last month before giving up some of its impressive gains at the end of the month.
The move – which was inspired by the buying momentum triggered by the Sprott Trust and subsequent retail influx – has attracted new, and much deeper pocketed investors into the market for the first time since before the financial crisis, when buying by investors drove the price from $20 a pound to a record high of $136 a pound in June 2007.
“We’ve been patiently waiting for something to happen for a long time,” Ben Cleary, of Tribeca Investment Partners whose fund is up 345% net of fees this year, told the FT. “Clearly there’s speculative money coming back into the sector, there were massive price moves in September.”
Well yes, and we documented them all, but they were mostly retail money and ETF buying. The difference this time is that finally the institutions are waking up to what could be a historic surge, especially if the fake ESG lobby starts dumping the bloated FAAMG names and seeks refuge in such “soon to be green” sectors as uranium. Incidentally, the entire Uranium sector is a tiny fraction of Apple’s market cap.
Of course, first and foremost we have to again give props to Sprott’s Physical Uranium Trust – as we have done repeatedly in the past 2 months – which is one of the few that buys and stores physical uranium. however, most other funds add exposure through mining equities, which have rallied 58% this year.
The rapid rise in natural gas and coal prices to fresh highs this month has exacerbated an energy crisis in Europe and China, and has “placed uranium back in the spotlight”, said Rob Crayfourd at CQS New City Investment Managers.
And, echoing what we said a month ago, Crayfourd said that “the political fallout of this energy crisis will be a greater willingness in the west to extend the life of the existing reactor fleet. It has focused governments on the benefits of secure supply of energy from the nuclear fleet. We expect that to lend support [to prices].”
For an example of just that look no further than French President Emmanuel Macron who today said that France would aim to become a leader in green hydrogen by 2030 and build new, smaller nuclear reactors as he unveiled a five-year investment plan on Tuesday aimed at fostering industrial champions and innovation.
While the funds making their way into the uranium sectors are still relatively small, they are hardly inexperienced: Light Sky’s founder Melkman, who was previously a partner at hedge fund Brevan Howard, has gained more than 5% this year, said a person who had seen the numbers.
“Light Sky Macro sees an immediate and sizeable opportunity in the uranium sector, making it one of our highest conviction views for 2021,” he wrote in a note to clients, seen by the Financial Times, earlier this year. A drawdown of inventory during the coronavirus pandemic has compounded tightening supply, while demand is expected to surge in the coming decades, added Melkman, who has been investing in the sector since 2018.
“The growing focus on ‘green energy’ at a political level and the growing demand for [sustainable] assets in the investment community should turn uranium into one of the most asymmetric trades for the coming years,” he wrote, meaning that the possibility of potential gains far outweighs the risk of losses.
Also profiting is Sean Benson, founder of London-based Tees River. His uranium fund, which buys equity stakes in uranium miners, is up 115% this year.
Benson argued in an investor letter that a deficit of supply relative to demand and a “very supportive” climate change agenda mean that “the current uranium cycle is better than the last on every fundamental metric”. His Critical Resources fund, which invests about one-third of assets in uranium, is up 44% this year.
Judging by the surge in uranium stocks today the market is finally starting to pay attention, and while the recent move may seem outsized at least when comped to recent history, when one considers just how much upside there could be in the sector should nuclear power make a triumphal return, we could be in the early stages of a truly staggering move higher.
Each day, we analyze emotions and sentiments from different sources and crunch them into one simple number: The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies.
This post by Lorimer Wilson, Managing Editor of munKNEE.com is an edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) version of an article by Alternative.me for the sake of clarity and length to ensure a fast and easy read.
<img src=”https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index.png” alt=”Latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index” />
Why Measure Fear and Greed?
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means “Extreme Fear”, while 100 means “Extreme Greed”. See below for further information on our data sources.
We are gathering data from the five following sources. Each data point is valued the same as the day before in order to visualize a meaningful progress in sentiment change of the crypto market…
1. Volatility (25 %)
We’re measuring the current volatility and max. drawdowns of bitcoin and compare it with the corresponding average values of the last 30 days and 90 days. We argue that an unusual rise in volatility is a sign of a fearful market.
2. Market Momentum/Volume (25%)
Also, we’re measuring the current volume and market momentum (again in comparison with the last 30/90 day average values) and put those two values together. Generally, when we see high buying volumes in a positive market on a daily basis, we conclude that the market acts overly greedy / too bullish.
3. Social Media (15%)
While our reddit sentiment analysis is still not in the live index (we’re still experimenting some market-related key words in the text processing algorithm), our twitter analysis is running. There, we gather and count posts on various hashtags for each coin (publicly, we show only those for Bitcoin) and check how fast and how many interactions they receive in certain time frames). A unusual high interaction rate results in a grown public interest in the coin and in our eyes, corresponds to a greedy market behaviour.
4. Dominance (10%)
The dominance of a coin resembles the market cap share of the whole crypto market. Especially for Bitcoin, we think that a rise in Bitcoin dominance is caused by a fear of (and thus a reduction of) too speculative alt-coin investments, since Bitcoin is becoming more and more the safe haven of crypto. On the other side, when Bitcoin dominance shrinks, people are getting more greedy by investing in more risky alt-coins, dreaming of their chance in the next big bull run. By analyzing the dominance for a coin other than Bitcoin, you could argue the other way round, since more interest in an alt-coin may conclude a bullish/greedy behaviour for that specific coin.
5. Trends (10%)
We pull Google Trends data for various Bitcoin related search queries and crunch those numbers, especially the change of search volumes as well as recommended other currently popular searches. For example, if you check Google Trends for “Bitcoin”, you can’t get much information from the search volume. Currently, you can see that there is a +1,550% rise of the query “bitcoin price manipulation“ in the box of related search queries (as of 05/29/2018). This is clearly a sign of fear in the market, and we use that for our index.
Surveys (15%) currently paused
Together with strawpoll.com (disclaimer: we own this site, too), quite a large public polling platform, we’re conducting weekly crypto polls and ask people how they see the market. Usually, we’re seeing 2,000 – 3,000 votes on each poll, so we do get a picture of the sentiment of a group of crypto investors. We don’t give those results too much attention, but it was quite useful in the beginning of our studies. You can see some recent results here.
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
A futures-based exchange-traded funds based on Bitcoin called the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) started yesterday and I believe it will be a major factor in making the process to invest in Bitcoins considerably easier, safer, and more convenient. Here are 5 reasons why:
While our year-end price target for Bitcoin is $100,000, we believe that Bitcoin prices will soar much, much higher in the long run – like 5X higher. That’s right, we think Bitcoin is going to $500,000 and the rationale is simple.
Trading in bitcoin has become a very profitable way to generate income, and whether you’re just starting out, or have been at it for a while, there are some tips that can enhance your bitcoin trading strategy.
While there are risks, cryptocurrencies can reap huge rewards for those who make the right investment decisions. In this blog post, we discuss how to invest in cryptocurrency and what you need to know if you want to get involved!
Gold and Crypto are both expected to embark on their next bull run and, a disadvantage to owning one asset is often an advantage of owning the other. Therefore, we believe both deserve a place in your portfolio for at least insurance purposes.
It would be wise for bitcoin traders to use any kind of hedge that they can find and over the past few months, one such hedge has been, ironically, gold.
A Few Last Words:
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Pegasus Resources Inc. (TSXV:PEGA) continues to make its presence in the prolific Athabasca Basin uranium camp with the recently announced acquisition of three uranium properties at the northwest edge of the Basin. The 54,026 hectare properties comprising 13 mineral claims contain a cumulative total of 535,718 lbs of uranium, and significantly, includes a historic resource estimate of 202,200 tons at 0.119% U308 at an average width of 4.8 metres.
These new properties add to the previously announced Pine Channel uranium property which consists of six mineral claims covering 6,028 hectares and is located at the northern edge of the Athabasca basin, roughly 40 km west of the town of Stony Rapids. The Athabasca Basin in Northern Saskatchewan is host to several of the world’s largest and highest-grade uranium mines, including Cameco’s (TSX: CCO) McArthur River Mine and Cigar Lake Mine.
The Wollaston Northeast property is located in the 20A zone within the prolific Wollaston Domain, 45 kilometres northeast of the Eagle Point Uranium Mine. The property has at least eight known base metals showings and five previously documented uranium occurrences, and is considered highly prospective for basement hosted uranium mineralization.
Much of the recent renewed interest in uranium in the region is due to recent discoveries within the Wollaston Domain where the Eagle Point deposits are hosted within its basement rocks. In addition to the Eagle Point Mine, the area also hosts the historic Rabbit Lake Mine and Cameco/Orano Key Lake Mine, the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine.
The 12,397 hectare Bentley Lake Uranium Property consisting of three mineral claims, and is located 35 kilometres northeast of the edge of the Athabasca Basin, within a transition zone between the Wollaston and Mudjatic Domains. This trend is host to several major uranium deposits, including Cigar Lake, Roughrider, McArthur River and Midwest. It is located at the transition zone between the Wollaston and Mudjatik geological domains.
The third property is located approximately 40 kilometres northeast of the edge of the Athabasca Basin and within the Charlebois-Higginson Lake Uranium District. The 6,908 hectare Mozzie Lake Uranium Property consists of three mineral claims and has a historical resource estimate of 204,200 tons at 0.119% U308, with an average width of 4.8 metres, and containing 535,718 lbs of uranium. What makes the Mozzie Lake Property particularly compelling, aside from the historical resource estimate that Pegasus’s exploration efforts may be able to increase significantly, are the pegmatite deposits of the Charlebois-Higginson Lake Uranium District.
Since being initially explored from the 1940’s through to the 1960’s, there has been virtually no exploration on the property. Previous work in the region, as well as on the Pinkham Lake property at Mozzie Lake, indicated that the pegmatite deposits may also host mineralization which contains rare-earth-element bearing minerals. Rare earth minerals are in high demand today due to the needs of the various technology, consumer electronics, and electric vehicle manufacturing industries. PEGA plans to examine the property’s rare earth potential as part of its uranium exploration program at Mozzie Lake.
Pegasus will next review the historical data on the properties to determine an exploration strategy and work programs, and will provide shareholders with updates in the near future. The company’s recent announcements of the uranium assets have certainly rekindled interest in PEGA shares, and its market capitalization has increased by almost 50% to $7.98 million in recent weeks, signifying that investors are enthused about the direction management has taken.
PEGA last traded at $0.095 on the TSX Venture exchange.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Pegasus Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. The author has been compensated to cover Pegasus Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.
The Ethical Investor is Stockhead’s weekly look at ESG moves on the ASX. This week’s special guest is JP Equity Partners’ director and partner, Nic Brownbill.
The world is in the grip of an ongoing global power crisis that has seen energy prices soaring by thousands of percentage points.
From China to Europe and now India, the cost of energy is surging drastically. The price of natural gas has even quadrupled in some parts of the world.
But economists are now warning this might be just the first of many power crunches the world will see as we transition into the new economy.
According to a research paper by CommBank’s analyst Vivek Dhar, there are two main root causes that led to the crisis — a strong demand recovery from the pandemic, and an acute shortage of two key power-producing fuels – natural gas and thermal coal.
As economies reopen, there is a sudden pent up demand from consumers which meant that factories were forced to switch on their production capacity at short notice. This was exacerbated by a colder than usual European autumn, as the continent potentially faces a more-freezing-than-usual winter season.
In China, the crisis mainly stemmed from an undersupply in local production of coals, according to Dhar, adding that coal supply has been hampered in China because of the government’s own environmental protection regulations.
So what can we learn from all this?
Dhar reckons that we are transitioning into the new economy too fast, too soon.
“What the recent energy crisis has shown is that the energy transition needs to be planned carefully,” Dhar wrote.
“This will mean significant investment in renewable generation, batteries, electricity grids and hydrogen.”
But he thinks the roll-out of a decarbonised grid and role of gas need to be clearly defined too.
“Under-investing in gas infrastructure relative to its role in coming years will only serve to make Europe’s energy market more vulnerable to prolonged gas shortages, and increase dependence on Russia.”
Like Europe, China’s decarbonisation ambition will need to be planned as well, Dhar said.
“If coal mines and coal power plants are closed before a renewable replacement is in place, power shortages in China could be an ongoing concern.”
What’s happening in Australia
Australians have chosen climate change as the top ESG priority, according to the latest survey conducted by global ESG consultant, SEC Newgate.
And more than half of the 1,000 Aussies surveyed said they were happy with the direction the government is taking on the environment.
These results should provide food for thought for PM Scott Morrison, who’s currently caught in a political wrangle with the Nationals in setting our 2050 climate goals.
The PM has told Liberal colleagues that he wants to bring a binding 2050 net zero commitment to the COP26 Summit in Glasgow next month, without having to upgrade Australia’s 2030 commitments.
Nationals Leader and also Deputy PM, Barnaby Joyce, said however that he was willing to back the 2050 targets only if funding for regional producers and farmers were made as part of the deal.
Special guest JP Equities’ Nic Brownbill shares his views and ESG stocks
Nic Brownbill, a partner at JP Equity, told Stockhead that decarbonisation is a mega global investment opportunity, one that JP Equity wants to be all in on.
How big is the potential for ESG investing?
“We see the whole decarbonisation theme as the next mega global investment opportunity. An estimated $41 trillion is required to decarbonise the planet. It’s going to be a bigger opportunity than the crypto market, because unlike cryptos, the carbon market is going to be mandated by governments, major asset managers and pension funds.”
Which segment of the ESG market do you see outperforming?
“Some companies will fall short in trying to make their carbon targets, so the balance will need to be met with carbon credits. I think carbon emissions will eventually be metricated, and the carbon offset market is going to be a way for major companies to offset their emissions.”
Would that investment opportunity catch on in Australia?
“I believe the Australian market hasn’t really caught on to the opportunity of this yet. But I think something will really start to emerge from the COP26 conference in November, where you’ll see a sustained mega theme starting to unfold in this country.
“I think we will start to see a complete emergence of Australian companies in the carbon space over the next few months and beyond.”
What are the ASX stocks that JP Equity likes in the carbon credit space?
One ASX stock that we’ve been watching very closely is Fertoz (ASX:FTZ). They’re a leading North American fertiliser manufacturer that produces a unique low-emission rock phosphate product that increases crop yield by 15%.
“Importantly, it can generate significantly lower CO2 emissions in manufacturing compared with other commercial fertilisers.
“This presents a really significant opportunity because agriculture as a sector accounts for 24% of all human generated greenhouse emissions. Fertoz is one of the first movers in the carbon credit market, and since May this year has been issuing carbon offset credit certificates.
“It’s not a matter of if, but when disclosure of carbon emissions will become metricated. And as a result, Fertoz is getting some strong enquiries from other companies looking to offset their footprints by buying carbon credits.”
Any other ASX stocks you like in the ESG space?
“We’re also bullish on Mpower (ASX:MPR). The company is Australia’s leading specialist in renewable energy, battery storage and micro-grid business. It has a focus on five megawatt solar farms, and is in the process of creating an initial portfolio of 20 sites across Australia in the coming years.
“That gives them an aggregate capacity of around 100 megawatts, and an estimated value of more than $150 million. It’s now down to what the team can deliver in some of those projects to build up the portfolio.”
The company has appointed global consulting firm Deloitte to ensure a robust ESG program at its Maricunga project in Chile.
Deloitte has been tasked to imbed sustainable protocols in LPI’s lithium extraction operations, and to establish ambitious standards for LPI to become a carbon neutral producer, while keeping high standards on the social aspects.