Connect with us

Articles

The Red-Hot Bull Market Investors Are Ignoring

We are right now in the early stages of a red-hot bull market for one often-overlooked natural resource.
It’s an essential commodity – one that is…

Published

on

This article was originally published by Baystreet

We are right now in the early stages of a red-hot bull market for one often-overlooked natural resource.

It’s an essential commodity – one that is currently worth about 100 times more than natural gas.

Soaring demand for this commodity – at a time when we’re facing a critical shortage – has created an explosive growth opportunity for those investors who know where to look.

This opportunity is in helium.

Yes…helium is now about 100 times more valuable than natural gas.

A resource that has for decades been thought of only as part of a child’s birthday balloon is actually one of the world’s most critical – and irreplaceable – commodities.

And right now we’re on the verge of a critical shortage.

Making matters worse is that, thanks to a combination of factors, there have been virtually no companies exploring for new sources of helium until very recently.

This opportunity is so potentially lucrative that an expert collaboration of natural resource veterans has come together to develop projects with extraordinary potential.

The company is Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF), a little-known Canadian company that now appears primed for rapid growth.

This Team Led Development on One of North America’s Largest Oil & Gas Discoveries…and Now They’re Seeking to Do It Again – With Helium

There’s a dire need for new, North American helium supplies to be brought online as quickly as possible.

For decades, the U.S. was the world’s largest producer of helium, accounting for as much as 40% of the worlds’ supply.

The world’s single largest source of helium for the past 70 years has been the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve (FHR) in Amarillo, Texas.

But within the past few years, the FHR stockpile has been depleted, and the helium market has opened up to the private sector for the very first time in modern history.

And with helium seeing such a tremendous surge in demand – thanks to its use in semiconductors as well as a host of other critical industries – a significant supply gap is emerging for this essential resource.

This is precisely the opportunity that helped bring together an All-Star collection of natural resource industry veterans with Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF).

It’s a team that was (while formerly at Encana) involved in the early stages of the discovery of the Montney Formation, one of the premier natural gas formations in North America.

Without question, the Avanti Energy team is the most experienced – and most decorated – in the helium space, with direct experience in developing multi-billion dollar projects from their time at Encana.

And that’s what this team is working to do again at Avanti Energy…with drilling set to commence on an initial three wells in what could ultimately prove to be a significant helium project in Montana.

Avanti CEO Chris Bakker has over two decades of experience in oil and gas, most recently working as a commercial negotiator with Encana (now Ovintiv) for major facilities and pipelines in the Montney gas play.

His expertise includes all facets of Natural Gas Exploration like land acquisition, exploration, drilling, well production and facility integration and construction.

Vice President of Subsurface Genga Nadaraju has over two decades of experience in the oil & gas industry…Director of Geoscience Dr. Jim Wood has over 30 years of experience as a geologist specializing in reservoir characterization…VP of Engineering Ali Esmail has spent the past 13 years specializing in reservoir engineering …and Senior Geophysicist Richard Balon has over 30 years of experience in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

This is an experienced team with an impressive track record of success in the oil and gas industry.

And now they appear poised to do it again.

Avanti Energy Could Be Sitting On As Much As $1 Billion Worth of Helium – or More – in the Greater Knappen Area

This very same successful team is now using the same methodology at Avanti Energy to explore for what it hopes will prove to be some of the richest helium deposits in the world.

The company’s strategy to date has been to pull in on only the very best properties in western Canada and the United States.

This search for “the best of the best” led Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF) to the Greater Knappen area of Alberta and Northern Montana.

The company has a 100% ownership stake in approximately 69,000 acres of helium prospective land in this mineral-rich region.

Just recently, the company announced that it had completed its geological interpretation of this property, discovering an estimated undiscovered and unrisked resource potential of:

* Low case: 1.4 bcf of Helium

* Mid case: 4.4 bcf of Helium

* High case: 8.9 bcf of Helium

Based on these estimates, it’s possible that Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF) could be sitting on as much as $1 billion worth of helium.

And they’re already moving forward with an aggressive schedule to bring production online as early as Q3 of 2022.

In fact, the first well in Montana is expected to be spud in early December with well results ready sometime early in the New Year.

And on November 9, the company announced that it has contracted with T&S Drilling for its initial three well drilling program at its Greater Knappen land holdings in Northern Montana.

The initial drilling program is scheduled to spud in early December and will target three separate pay zones, two in the Beaverhill Lake formation and one in the Basal Sandstone formation. The drilling targets exhibit structural highs with relief of 70m to >200m. Previously drilled wells surrounding Avanti’s lands have high helium shows in multiple Devonian and Cambrian targets with helium percentages of up to 2% and nitrogen percentages of up to 96%.

Analysts at Beacon Securities report that, “Our expectation of 3 exploratory wells in Q4/21 and initial helium production in Q3/22 remains unchanged…we continue to have high expectations for the Greater Knappen area. The initial drilling program in Montana and Alberta will just be the start of a multi-year exploration and development program for AVN. We maintain our $3.80 target price and our Spec Buy rating.”

This potential helium production – as early as Q3 2022 – is happening for Avanti Energy in the midst of soaring demand thanks to helium’s many impactful uses.

Why Helium is Seeing Such a “Rocket Launch” of Demand

As a noble gas helium is not combustible and has properties that make it irreplaceable for a number of important industrial applications.

Helium is the second most abundant element in the universe but it is extremely rare on earth.

With the global helium shortage we are now facing, it’s estimated that the supply will not keep up with demand for the next 20 years.

And that is happening as industry demand is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 11% each year through 2037.

While helium is most commonly thought of as being used for the inflation of balloons, the truth is helium is used in a number of critical parts of daily life.

* Medical Industry – Helium is used to operate MRI machines and as part of respiratory treatments.

* Cryogenics – Helium is the only element that can come close to reaching absolute zero.

* Internet Connectivity – Fiber optic cables must be manufactured in a pure helium environment.

* Electronics – Many electronics and semiconductors – including mobile phones – require helium to be used at various stages of the production process.

* Computers – Helium-filled hard drives offer 50% higher storage capacity with 23% lower operating power.

* Car Air Bags – Helium is the gas of choice for effecting the near instantaneous deployment of air bags in cars.

Helium is used by companies like Amazon, Google and Netflix to help cool their data centers. And both the U.S. and Canadian governments have recently added helium to their critical minerals lists.

Not to mention… an estimated $12 million worth of helium is needed for a single space rocket launch.

In fact, the single largest buyer of helium is NASA, consuming almost 75 million cubic feet annually to cool liquid hydrogen and oxygen for rocket fuel.

And with the highly publicized rocket launches from Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin…that consumption of helium for space launches is only likely to increase in the months ahead.

That’s why Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF) right now appears to be such an attractive potential investment.

– The company is led by a team of oil and gas executives with a history of success in the exploration space, including the discovery of the Montney Formation, one of the premier natural gas formations in North America.

Avanti Energy’s shares are currently trading for less than $1.50 per share – meaning there is tremendous upside potential.

– Beacon Securities has established a price target of $3.80 for the stock – more than a 100% increase from its current level and maintains its Spec Buy rating on the company.

– In addition, Avanti Energy (TSX:AVN.V; OTCMKTS:ARGYF) Chris Bakker is so confident in the company’s potential that he spent nearly $500,000 buying stock at levels nearly double where the stock is now, with purchases at $2.91 per share on May 5, 2021 and at $2.45 per share in June. And with the recent drilling announcement, Bakker started buying again…

– The company has identified a significant potential helium resource on its Greater Knappen property and is moving quickly to commence drilling. With a target spud date in early December for the first well, the company is on target to begin initial production upon successful testing sometime in Q3 of 2022.

Other companies that could benefit from a different kind of shortage…

While the tech industry runs on helium…it is also dependent on another kind of resource. One that both a shortage of materials, and production shutdowns during COVID-19 has made increasingly scarce. Semiconductors.

One of the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) has a storied history and helped shape many technologies we rely on today. Founded by Morris Chang in 1987 as part-time contract chipmaker for IBM and Motorola–the company that would eventually become known simply as “TSM ” or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company was only 200 strong when it started out back then! It wasn’t until quality control became its top priority day 1 though; this focus makes all difference because even with more employees than any other foundry group at over 14k people now (with plenty still coming soon) they’re able to maintain those high standards which led them into becoming one of Apple Inc.’s primary suppliers alongside Nvidia Corp., Qualcomm, and more.

The global semiconductor industry is a highly competitive one and only five companies in the world own chip-making facilities, making Taiwan Semiconductor a standout in the industry.. Indeed, many leading top semiconductor companies are “fabless,” meaning they only design the chips but rely on other companies, known as foundries, to actually make the chips. The shift to outsourcing has been having a big effect on structural changes and related capacity because companies that cut orders in the early days of the pandemic have been forced to go to the back of the line.

Taiwan Semiconductor is a key player to watch in both the helium shortage and the semiconductor shortage. As the world’s largest chipmaker, it needs helium to survive. And with a semiconductor supply squeeze looming, it could stand to benefit big when Big Tech comes knocking.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is a multinational technology company headquartered in California. It has been around since the late 1950’s, when it was founded by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore who first coined their portmanteau name- Integrated Electronics or Ie. Intel supplies processors for computer systems such as desktops laptop servers tablets mobile phones (including smartphones) and more; they also make motherboard chipsets that connect these devices together so you can use your processor effectively while having access to fast memory too!

At its core, Intel is a chipmaker. And a big one at that. It’s also a leader in the global semiconductor game thanks to its investments in 65nm process, an advanced node used in volume CMOS semiconductor fabrication. Intel has manufactured semiconductors in Ireland since 1990, and has invested around $6 billion there in this time, but is beginning to branch out with new investments in the United States, as well.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is an innovator in the world of computing and graphics. The company was founded over forty years ago with a single mission: to advance technology as fast it could be invented. Since then, they’ve become one of the most relied upon brands for processing power – both at home on your own PC or game console; but also when you need high performance computer systems that can process data quickly enough maybe even live video streaming where every millisecond counts!

Advanced Media Devices isn’t just building home computers, either. AMD also is building CPUs to be used in massive data centers, the kind supporting the likes of Microsoft’s Azure cloud-based workstations and desktops and much more. And its GPUs are providing the speed, security, and scalability to keep these data centers performing at the level needed to push modern tech into the future.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), AMD’s biggest competitor, is a company that develops graphics processing units, or GPUs. Nvidia was founded in 1993 and has been making waves in the gaming industry ever since with their innovative products. They are continually releasing new technologies to stay ahead of the competition and have an excellent reputation for quality. The company also manufactures processors that power many other devices such as automobiles, robots, and smartphones. These processors are often used for artificial intelligence systems like driverless cars or voice commands on mobile phones so we can expect Nvidia’s technology to keep getting more advanced over time!

Nvidia’s dedication to innovation is clear in all areas of tech, from computer graphics and artificial intelligence research that are core to robots or future cities.

It’s also pushing new technologies into the world with its enterprise server GPUs—even setting records! Thanks for being there when we needed you most, Nvidia–and don’t worry: your hardware will not go unsupported now that it has been so instrumental before this point too.

With more and more demand coming for semiconductors and new chip technology hitting the market, companies like Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan, Samsung and Intel are going to be some of the biggest benefactors. They’re already well-known in the industry, and this could just be their time to really shine. But a looming helium shortage could present a number of complications for the booming tech giants.

IBM Corporation (NYSE:IBM) or International Business Machines Corporations an American multinational technology company with headquarters in Armonk New York. They specialize in developing and providing computer related products worldwide like the automated teller machine (ATM), magnetic stripe card which we use today for credit cards among other things such as floppy disks drives; hard disk drives that store data magnetically on aluminum foil within a circular shape called platters rotating at over 3 inches per second so it can be read by head movements inside our computers.

IBM is often considered one of the most innovative companies in its field, with a long list of inventions to date. In fact they were responsible for many technologies that are now taken-for granted and seen around us every day like ATMs or floppy disks! And while this history certainly makes them an excellent candidate when it comes time to explore new trends such as blockchain technology; their rapid growth means they aren’t ignoring any potential opportunities – which could very well turn out right where you least expect them first.

IBM’s blockchain platform, built on the open-source Hyperledger Fabric platform from the Linux Foundation is helping companies with a wide variety of blockchain solutions including tools for the finance sector, supply chain transparency, and letters of guarantee. IBM’s blockchain platform even helps interested parties develop their own blockchain solutions through educational tools and personalized assistance.

Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX:LAC) is one of America’s most critical and promising pure-play lithium companies. With two world-class lithium projects in Argentina and Nevada, Lithium Americas is well-positioned to ride the wave of growing lithium demand in the years to come. It’s already raised nearly a billion dollars in equity and debt, showing that investors have a ton of interest in the company’s ambitious plans.

Lithium America is not looking over the growing pressure from investors for responsible and sustainable mining, either. In fact, one of its primary goals is to create a positive impact on society and the environment through its projects. This includes cleaner mining tech, strong workplace safety practices, a range of opportunities for employees, and strong relationships with local governments to ensure that not only are its employees being taken care of but local communities, as well.

Celestica (TSX:CLS) is a key company in the resource boom due to is role as one of the top manufacturers of electronics in North America. Celestica’s wide range of products includes but is not limited to communications solutions, enterprise and cloud services, aerospace and defense products, renewable energy, and even healthcare tech.

Due to its exposure to the renewable energy market, Celestica’s future is tied hand-in-hand with the green energy boom that’s sweeping the world at the moment. It helps build smart and efficient products that integrate the latest in power generation, conversion and management technology to deliver smarter, more efficient grid and off-grid applications for the world’s leading energy equipment manufacturers and producers.

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TSX:TRQ) is a key player in Canada’s resource and mineral industry. It is a major producer of coal and zinc, two resources with distinctly different futures. While headlines are already touting the end of coal, zinc is a mineral that will play a key role in the future of energy for years and years to come.

In addition to its zinc operations, Turquoise Hill is also a significant producer of Uranium. Uranium is a key material in the production of nuclear energy, which many analysts are suggesting could be a major component in the global transition to cleaner energy. While the mineral has not seen significant price action in recent years, there are a number of new projects set to come online across the globe in the medium term, which could be a boon to Turquoise Hill, especially as alternative energies gain traction in the marketplace.

Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A) could be one of the best-diversified miners out there, with a broad portfolio of Copper, Zinc, Energy, Gold, Silver and Molybdenum assets. It’s even involved in the oil scene! With its free cash flow and a lower volatility outlook for base metals in combination with a growing push for copper and zinc to create batteries, Teck could emerge as one of the year’s most exciting miners.

Though Teck has not quite returned to its January highs, it has seen a promising rebound since April lows. In addition to its positive trajectory, the company has seen a fair amount of insider buying, which tells shareholders that the management team is serious about continuing to add shareholder value. In addition to insider buying, Teck has been added to a number of hedge fund portfolios as well, suggesting that not only do insiders believe in the company, but also the smart money that’s really driving the markets.

Maxar Technologies (TSX:MAXR) is one of the leading space companies on the planet, founded nearly 20 years ago. Maxar has a variety of services, including satellite development, space robotics, and earth observations. One of their most well-known products is the Canadarm2 robotic arm for the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS has been operational since 1998 with more than 100 missions to date. Maxar Technologies has had a history of partnering with NASA to maintain the ISS’s systems as well as providing them with new technologies such as the Canadarm2 robotic arm. is a moon-bound tech stock to keep an eye on. While space firm specializes in satellite and communication technologies, it is also a manufacturer of infrastructure required for in-orbit satellite services, Earth observation and more.

More importantly, however, Maxar’s subsidiary, SSL, a designer and manufacturer of satellites used by government and commercial enterprises, has pioneered research in electric propulsion systems, lithium-ion power systems and the use of advanced composites on commercial satellites. These innovations are key because they allow satellites to spend more time in orbit, reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

** IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY! **

PAID ADVERTISEMENT. This article is a paid advertisement. OpeningTrades.com and its owners, managers, employees, and assigns (collectively “the Publisher”) is often paid by one or more of the profiled companies or a third party to disseminate these types of communications. In this case, the Publisher has been compensated by Avanti Energy Inc. (“Avanti” or “AVN”) to conduct investor awareness advertising and marketing. Avanti paid the Publisher to produce and disseminate five similar articles and additional banner ads at a rate of Twenty Eight thousand US dollars per article. This compensation should be viewed as a major conflict with our ability to be unbiased.

Readers should beware that third parties, profiled companies, and/or their affiliates may liquidate shares of the profiled companies at any time, including at or near the time you receive this communication, which has the potential to hurt share prices. Frequently companies profiled in our articles experience a large increase in volume and share price during the course of investor awareness marketing, which often ends as soon as the investor awareness marketing ceases. The investor awareness marketing may be as brief as one day, after which a large decrease in volume and share price may likely occur.

This communication is not, and should not be construed to be, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Neither this communication nor the Publisher purport to provide a complete analysis of any company or its financial position. The Publisher is not, and does not purport to be, a broker-dealer or registered investment adviser. This communication is not, and should not be construed to be, personalized investment advice directed to or appropriate for any particular investor. Any investment should be made only after consulting a professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the financial statements and other pertinent corporate information about the company. Further, readers are advised to read and carefully consider the Risk Factors identified and discussed in the advertised company’s SEC, SEDAR and/or other government filings. Investing in securities, particularly microcap securities, is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This communication is based on information generally available to the public and on interviews with company management, and does not (to the Publisher’s knowledge, as confirmed by Avanti) contain any material, non-public information. The information on which it is based is believed to be reliable. Nevertheless, the Publisher cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.

SHARE OWNERSHIP. The Publisher owns shares and / or options of the featured company and therefore has an additional incentive to see the featured company’s stock perform well. The Publisher does not undertake any obligation to notify the market when it decides to buy or sell shares of the issuer in the market. The Publisher will be buying and selling shares of the featured company for its own profit. This is why we stress that you conduct extensive due diligence as well as seek the advice of your financial advisor or a registered broker-dealer before investing in any securities.

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS. This publication contains forward-looking information which is subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements in this publication include that prices for helium will significantly increase due to global demand and use in a wide array of industries (including key technology sectors) and that helium will retain its value in the future due to the demand increases and overall shortage of supply; that the Avanti team will be able to develop and implement helium exploration models, including their own proprietary models, that may result in successful exploration and development efforts; that historical geological information and estimations will prove to be accurate or at least very indicative of helium; that high helium content targets exist in the Alberta and both Montana projects; and that Avanti will be able to carry out its business plans, including timing for drilling and exploration. These forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking information. Risks that could change or prevent these statements from coming to fruition include that demand for helium is not as great as expected; that alternative commodities or compounds are used in applications which currently use helium, thus reducing the need for helium in the future; the degree of success of the coming drilling campaign; the accuracy of the initial estimates of helium on the land; the commercial viability of any obtainable helium, the ability to get any helium obtained to market; the accuracy of the production timeline estimates; that the Avanti team may be unable to develop any helium exploration models, including proprietary models, which allow successful exploration efforts on any of the Company’s current or future projects; that Avanti may not be able to finance its intended drilling programs to explore for helium or may otherwise not raise sufficient funds to carry out its business plans; that geological interpretations and technological results based on current data may change with more detailed information, analysis or testing; and that despite promise, there may be no commercially viable helium or other resources on any of Avanti’s properties. The forward-looking information contained herein is given as of the date hereof and we assume no responsibility to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.

INDEMNIFICATION/RELEASE OF LIABILITY. By reading this communication, you acknowledge that you have read and understand this disclaimer, and further that to the greatest extent permitted under law, you release the Publisher, its affiliates, assigns and successors from any and all liability, damages, and injury from this communication. You further warrant that you are solely responsible for any financial outcome that may come from your investment decisions.

TERMS OF USE. By reading this communication you agree that you have reviewed and fully agree to the Terms of Use found here http://OpeningTrades.com/Terms-of-Use, If you do not agree to the Terms of Use http://OpeningTrades.com/Terms-of-Use please contact OpeningTrades.com to discontinue receiving future communications.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY. OpeningTrades.com is the Publisher’s trademark. All other trademarks used in this communication are the property of their respective trademark holders. The Publisher is not affiliated, connected, or associated with, and is not sponsored, approved, or originated by, the trademark holders unless otherwise stated. No claim is made by the Publisher to any rights in any third-party trademarks.















Precious Metals

Eldorado Gold: BMO Reiterates $20 Price Target

This week Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD) provided full year 2022 production and cost guidance as well as a 5-year production
The post Eldorado Gold: BMO Reiterates…

This week Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD) provided full year 2022 production and cost guidance as well as a 5-year production outlook. By 2022, Eldorado expects total gold production to be 460,000 to 490,000 ounces, or about 7% higher than the prior guidance. Cash operating costs are expected to be between $640 and $690 per ounce, while the all-in sustaining costs are expected to be between $1,075 and $1,175.

Eldorado Gold also raised their 2023 and 2024 production guidance, bringing them up 4% and 7% respectively. The company additionally expects by 2026 to be producing between 510,000 and 540,000 ounces of gold per year.

Eldorado Gold currently has 11 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of US$13.50, or a 42% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 11 analysts, 6 have buy ratings, 4 have hold ratings and the last analyst has a sell rating. The street high price target sits at US$17.51, or an 85% upside to the current stock price while the lowest comes in at US$9.25.

In BMO Capital Markets’ note, they reiterate their outperform rating and $20 12-month price target saying that the company is “approaching the growth spurt.”

For the 2022 guidance, production came in line with BMO’s 471,000-ounce estimate while all-in sustaining costs came in slightly above their $1,070 per ounce estimate. Onto the improved 5 year guidance, they say that the outlook looks a little above their expectations.

Lastly, they say that if you take the midpoint of the 2025 guidance, which is 550,000 ounces produced, it would be a 5% 3-year organic CAGR, which is “a rarity among intermediate and senior producers at present.”

Below you can see BMO’s updated estimates.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post Eldorado Gold: BMO Reiterates $20 Price Target appeared first on the deep dive.


Author: Justin Young

Continue Reading

Articles

GSP continues to explore past-producing Alwin Mine, as copper price support remains solid

2022.01.22
Copper has been one of the biggest winners of the commodities complex since 2020.
Not only is the tawny-colored industrial metal an essential…

GSP continues to explore past-producing Alwin Mine, as copper price support remains solid

2022.01.22

Copper has been one of the biggest winners of the commodities complex since 2020.

Not only is the tawny-colored industrial metal an essential part of economic growth, it is also imperative to the global transition towards sustainable energy sources.

Because electric vehicle are copper intensive (in fact tdhey use 4x as much copper as a regular vehicle), demand for copper has risen at an unprecedented pace with no signs of slowing down.

Wind and solar energy systems have the highest copper content of all renewable energy technologies, making the metal even more important in achieving climate goals.

Driven by robust industrial demand, copper prices surged to an all-time high of $4.77/lb in May of 2021. Compared to its trough of $1.94/lb in early 2016, this represents a 150% rally within a span of five years.

Source: Kitco

A report by Goehring & Rozencwajg, which specializes in natural resource investments, points out that recommendations on copper investments have focused primarily on bullish demand trends; the supply side of the equation also must be factored in.

The primary concern lies in the inevitable depletion of existing copper mines — a problem that has been brewing for over a decade.

A dearth of new copper discoveries and capital spending on mine development in recent years means that once an existing mine becomes exhausted, its output may not be replaced in time to meet the growing demand.

Moreover, since 2000, most reserve additions have come from simply lowering the cut-off grade and mining lower-quality ore as prices moved higher (e.g. Chile’s Escondida copper deposit), a practice that may not be feasible for geological reasons in the upcoming cycle, as Goehring & Rozencwajg argues.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Although there will be new projects coming online around the globe (DRC, Panama and Mongolia), these will only offset depletion at other existing mines, leading to stagnant overall mine supply growth.

Acuity Knowledge Partners, formerly part of Moody’s Corp., is predicting a widening demand-supply gap that could reach as high as 8.2 million tonnes by 2030.

For this reason, exploration companies holding high-quality copper assets will appeal to investors.

GSP Resource Corp.

One copper junior to recently catch the attention of AOTH, is GSP Resource Corp. (TSXV:GSPR, FRA:0YD). Vancouver-based and British Columbia-focused, the company’s flagship is the Alwin Mine Project located 18 km from the town of Logan Lake. The past-producing mine is southwest of the New Afton and Ajax mines, and less than a kilometer away from the Highland Valley Mine.

GSP was formed in 2018 with the goal of finding copper-gold-silver assets in southwestern BC. Management prefers the area’s three-season climate to the Golden Triangle of northwestern BC, which gets a lot of snow and therefore has a limited exploration window, roughly May to October. The company has an option to acquire a 100% interest in the past-producing Alwin copper mine, located in BC’s Highland Valley copper camp.

Alwin Mine Project

The Alwin Mine Project is 18 km from the town of Logan Lake, southwest of the New Afton and Ajax mines, and less than a kilometer from the Highland Valley copper mine owned and operated by Teck Resource Corp.

Alwin Mine Project location map

Small-scale mining was conducted at the Alwin Mine in the early 1900s, with modern exploration and mining occurring in two periods, from 1967 to 1982 and from 2005 to 2008. In all about 36,000 meters of historical drilling has been completed. 

The first copper occurrence discovered in the Highland Valley was the Ashcroft glory hole, an outcropping copper deposit that saw limited mining during the First World War, then lay dormant until the 1960s when it was explored on a larger scale.

From 1967 to 1970, 6,940m of surface diamond drilling in 81 holes was drilled along the main Alwin mineralized trend, and 5,860m of underground drilling in 119 holes was completed in 1,400m of mine workings.

In 1980, Dekalb Mining Corp. expanded the capacity of the mill to 700 tons per day and resumed mining of the Alwin trend. Total production was 155,000 tonnes grading 1.54% Cu. Mining was suspended in 1981 due to low copper prices. At the conclusion of mining, a trackless development decline was extended to a depth of 270m and 3,935m of drilling was completed in 76 underground holes. Dekalb calculated a resource of 390,000 tonnes grading an average of 2.5% Cu, after factoring for 25% dilution. No cut-off grade was reported.

This historical resource is not National Instrument 43-101-compliant and therefore GSP is not relying on it for accuracy; more drilling needs to be done to bring the resource up to modern reporting standards.

An important aspect of the GSP story, is the fact that previous underground operators were focused on the high-grade copper mineralization — a series of deep and narrow replacement deposits. At a 1.5% cut-off grade with copper being less then a dollar a pound, and getting as low as US$0.56, the mine was never considered from a bulk tonnage, open-pit perspective. Ironic, considering that is precisely what the Highland Valley has become known for, with five large pits developed over the past 60 years including Teck’s Highland Valley open-cast copper-molybdenum operation.

Developed to a depth of 300 meters, the Alwin Mine produced over 233,000 tonnes from five zones between 1916 and 1981. It milled 3,786 tonnes of copper, 2,729 kilograms (87,739 oz) of silver and 42.6 kg (1,369 oz) of gold.

Fast forward to today, when the economics of copper mining are completely different, with copper currently trading at $4.53 a pound compared to a ballpark average 68 cents during the 1960s and early 1980s. The much higher copper price now makes the lower-grade areas of the Alwin Mine project more interesting if they can be developed into an open-pit mine.

GSP management believes there is a low-grade halo of mineralization north and south of an east-west trending structure, that could be bulk-tonnage and open-pittable.

A lot of historical drilling has been done at the Alwin Mine, however most of it was underground with short, tightly-spaced holes targeting the high-grade material. Not much was drilled from surface around the edges of the mine.

GSP decided to investigate what would happen if they stepped back from the east-west trending structure the mine sits on, at first pointing the drill south to north.

Drilling in 2020 from the southern property boundary towards the mine, GSP hit numerous low-grade halo structures that proved to be in excess of the Highland Valley pit’s 0.28% CuEq mining head grade. A side note: the Alwin property is so close to Highland Valley that when you stand on it you can see, hear and feel the mining trucks rolling “next door”.

The best intercept from the 10-hole 2020 drill program returned 62 meters at 0.3% copper equivalent (CuEq), “with some very high grades of silver in the guts of the high-grade zone,” CEO Simon Dyakowski told me.

2021 exploration

GSP has completed its 2021 drill program and all indications point to a porphyry-style copper system similar to the mineralization found at Highland Valley.

Last fall, a three-hole program was designed to further test the bulk grade of the Alwin deposit and surrounding lower-grade rock with the drill holes collared from the north of the historical deposit. Assay results are expected in the first quarter.

According to GSP, most of the alteration and mineralization observed in the upper and lower portions in all deeper drill holes intersecting rock greater than 20 meters from the shell of the Alwin deposit have copper porphyry-style characteristics similar to that seen nearby in the Highland Valley camp.

Together with last summer’s drilling, GSP’s 2021 eight-hole program totaled 2,313 meters, testing the bulk-tonnage copper potential of unmined mineralization within and surrounding the historical Alwin Mine. (4,200 meters and 18 holes in the past two seasons)

Highlights included 3.5% copper, 2.4% gold and 39.6% silver over 6.4m (4.66% CuEq) and 2.71% CuEq over 35.5m.

Bulk tonnage grade highlights were 0.61% CuEq over 164.6m, 0.14% CuEq over 176.7m, and 0.21% CuEq over 229.7m including a higher-grade 0.28% CuEq over 158.5m and 0.48% CuEq over 79.3m.

Among other milestones achieved last year, GSP obtained an important five-year exploration permit, and completed a 3D digital model of the Alwin Mine’s workings and drill data.

The model includes all known underground workings, separated into drift and declines, raises, cement-filled, rock-filled and open stopes and the numerous unmined copper-silver and copper-gold mineralized portions of the 425-meter long by 275m-deep by 150m-wide zone.

The permit allows GSP to carry out exploration activities including drilling, trenching and IP lines, for five years.

Also in 2021, GSP optioned 60% of its its Olivine Mountain Project located southeast of Alwin and about 25 km northwest of the producing Copper Mountain mine, to Full Metal Minerals. Exploration programs will be operated by GSP until the option agreement is completed, including a sampling program that started in September with results pending.

To fund current and upcoming activities, the company closed a $455,000 oversubscribed financing back in August.

“Work at Alwin to date continues to support the reimagining of the Alwin Mine from a high-grade underground operation to a potential shallow, bulk tonnage open-pittable deposit model,” Dyakowski stated in the Jan. 19 news release.

2021 drilling plan

So far GSP’s plan is working. Mineralization has been identified in deep (>300m) holes more than 20 meters from the mine, which appears to verify GSP’s geological model of a low-grade halo of mineralization north and south of the east-west trending structure.

“We’re starting to be able to envision a sizeable amount of material as bulk tonnage,” says Dyakowski.

But the really exciting part of the project concerns the type of mineralization GSP could be looking at.

During 2021 drilling a new mineralized zone was discovered from hole AM21-02, shown as a dotted red circle on the above map. Previous drilling didn’t go very deep, but hole 2 of the 2021 program was completed to a depth of 367m. Near the end of the hole, the rock was found to be increasing in alteration. From 338m to 351m, the exploration team intersected what GSP describes as “an intensely mesothermal to epithermal clay style altered shear hosting dilational quartz vein fragments hosting coarse-grained pyrite and chalcopyrite.”

In plain English? This is evidence of a porphyry. Dyakowski explains:

“We punched through a lot of pyrite right in the area of a geophysical anomaly so we think that might be the top of an unknown porphyry. That’s something we’re going to save for next spring when we have a whole season of deeper drilling, but one of the main theories on Alwin is it is a skarn replacement system that’s associated with a larger porphyry.”

A porphyry deposit is formed when a block of molten-rock magma cools. The cooling leads to a separation of dissolved metals into distinct zones, resulting in rich deposits of copper, molybdenum, gold, tin, zinc and lead.

Porphyry deposits are usually low-grade but large and bulk-mineable, economics of scale come into play making them attractive targets for mineral explorers. Porphyry orebodies typically contain between 0.4 and 1% copper, with smaller amounts of other metals such as gold, molybdenum and silver.

In Canada, British Columbia enjoys the lion’s share of porphyry copper/ gold mineralization. These deposits contain the largest resources of copper, significant molybdenum and 50% of the gold in the province. Examples include big copper-gold and copper-molybdenum porphyries, such as Red Chris and Highland Valley.  

GSP believes the mineralization it is encountering is part of the Highland Valley hydrothermal system associated with the Highland Valley copper mine, which has been operating for 50-plus years. Owner Teck Resources is planning an expansion that would extend the mine life to 2040.

A word of caution. GSP doesn’t yet know whether, a/ If what was found in hole 2 means it has hit a porphyry. More drilling is required to bolster this case. And b/ If it is indeed a porphyry system, is it a porphyry unique to the Alwin mine, or is it an extension of Teck Resources’ next-door Highland Valley copper-moly porphyry? An interesting fact to note here is Teck Resources has a copper-moly porphyry, GSP has been assaying a lot of gold and silver, the highest grades drilled yet to date in the Valley.

We do know that Teck is planning on expanding its mine and that there is a network of roads and drill pads to the west of the pit edge, as shown on the map below.

Teck’s Highland Valley property in relation to Alwin

We learned from a local media source that the company is planning on extending the mine life to 2040 from its original closure date of 2027. The company is looking to expand the footprint by 800 hectares and would build out the Highmont pits and waste rock dumps. Teck has reportedly applied for permits needed to expand the more than 50-year-old operation. If approved, there would be a projected 25% increase in production, with construction starting in the first quarter of 2023.

How does the expansion affect GSP? Well again, it depends on whether the potential porphyry is its own, or an extension of Highland Valley’s. If GSP ends up discovering a new porphyry next to Highland Valley’s deposit, it may open up the possibility of a partnership with Teck, which could use ore from the Alwin mine as mill feed for its own operation, maybe even expanding it beyond 2040.

Dyakowski says he’s confident “we’ve got more than enough space to develop our own open-pit deposit and potentially look at a block cave just on our ground, but it does beg the question what is just over the line to the south and to the east, given that they are planning to mine there.”

GSP has other options besides partnering with the Canadian mining major. Only 45 minutes drive away on a paved highway is Nicola Mining’s fully permitted mill which is open to contract milling. Another potential partner is New Gold, which operates the New Afton Mine to the northeast. Gold Mountain Mining, focused on re-opening the Elk Mine about 57 km from Merritt, has been trucking their ore to New Afton for processing, suggesting that GSP could do the same with its ore from Alwin. 

“Alwin couldn’t be in a better location from a development perspective,” says Dyakowski, “it’s very much a brownfields development in all directions.”

2022 plans

This year at the Alwin Mine Project, GSP will focus on incorporating new drilling data into the geological model, and updated the Alwin Mine 3D model. Management is planning a substantial infill drill program to support a future resource estimate, as well as seeking additional exploration targets.

At Olivine Mountain, there will be a partner-funded project review and sampling program, including at Hop, a copper-gold porphyry target.

In its shareholder update, the company says it is continually evaluating new opportunities to add value, through acquiring and developing projects with a southwestern BC focus.

Conclusion

At AOTH we are very encouraged by what we are seeing from GSP at its Alwin Mine Project.

Alwin has always been thought of as a high-grade underground mine and for good reason. During it last phase of production, 1916 to 1981, copper was a fraction of the >$4.00 per pound it is worth today, making any low-grade material surrounding the mine un-economic. Times have changed and the low-grade halo that appears to be north and south of the mine might, at +$4 copper, be a stand alone bulk-mined open-pit.

Clearly that is GSP’s intention and the company, imo, appears to be well on its way to proving the model. Between 2020 and 2021 drilling, they have come up with what we consider to be a significant amount of mineralization.

The last three holes drilled in the fall are vectoring north-south toward the mine, rather than the previous south-north drilling. GSP describes most of the alteration and mineralization observed in the upper and lower portions of these holes as having “copper porphyry-style characteristics similar to that seen nearby in the Highland Valley camp.”

We are eager to see the assays — they are expected to be available in Q1 — and what GSP is planning next at Alwin, once they have boots back on the ground in the spring.

GSP Resource Corp.
TSXV:GSPR, FRA:0YD
Cdn$0.18, 2022.01.20
Shares Outstanding 20.2m
Market cap Cdn$3.6m
GSPR website  

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
subscribe to my free newsletter

Legal Notice / Disclaimer

Ahead of the Herd newsletter, aheadoftheherd.com, hereafter known as AOTH.

Please read the entire Disclaimer carefully before you use this website or read the newsletter. If you do not agree to all the AOTH/Richard Mills Disclaimer, do not access/read this website/newsletter/article, or any of its pages. By reading/using this AOTH/Richard Mills website/newsletter/article, and whether you actually read this Disclaimer, you are deemed to have accepted it.

Any AOTH/Richard Mills document is not, and should not be, construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.

AOTH/Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified.

AOTH/Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness.

Expressions of opinion are those of AOTH/Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice.

AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.

Furthermore, AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this AOTH/Richard Mills Report.

You agree that by reading AOTH/Richard Mills articles, you are acting at your OWN RISK. In no event should AOTH/Richard Mills liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained in AOTH/Richard Mills articles. Information in AOTH/Richard Mills articles is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. AOTH/Richard Mills is not suggesting the transacting of any financial instruments.

Our publications are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security – no information posted on this site is to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to do anything involving finance or money aside from performing your own due diligence and consulting with your personal registered broker/financial advisor.

AOTH/Richard Mills recommends that before investing in any securities, you consult with a professional financial planner or advisor, and that you should conduct a complete and independent investigation before investing in any security after prudent consideration of all pertinent risks.  Ahead of the Herd is not a registered broker, dealer, analyst, or advisor. We hold no investment licenses and may not sell, offer to sell, or offer to buy any security.

Richard does not own shares of GSP Resources (TSX.V:GSPR). GSPR is a paid advertiser on his site Ahead of the Herd










Author: Gail Mills

Continue Reading

Articles

Dolly Varden has 21 drill holes left to report, as gold, silver and copper prices bounce

2022.01.22
Predominantly a silver explorer, Dolly Varden Silver’s (TSXV:DV, OTC:DOLLF) flagship project is located in the southern part of British Columbia’s…

Dolly Varden has 21 drill holes left to report, as gold, silver and copper prices bounce

2022.01.22

Predominantly a silver explorer, Dolly Varden Silver’s (TSXV:DV, OTC:DOLLF) flagship project is located in the southern part of British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, an area well-known for its base and precious metals deposits.

The property hosts four historically active mines — Dolly Varden, Torbrit, North Star and Wolf — all have parts that remain unexplored to this day. More than 20 million ounces of high-grade silver have been produced from these deposits between 1919 and 1959.

Dolly Varden’s project lies to the west of Hecla Mining’s Kinskuch Project. It also borders Fury Gold Mines’ Homestake Ridge, which it acquired late last year to consolidate what it considers to be an emerging silver-gold district.

The consolidated project, named Kitsault Valley, is now among the largest, high-grade, undeveloped precious metal assets in Western Canada, with a combined mineral resource base of 34.7Moz silver and 166,000 oz gold in the indicated category.

Regional exploration and reconnaissance drilling also led to the identification of a large new porphyry copper-gold system that may be related to others in the Golden Triangle such as KSM, Treaty Creek, Saddle, Red Chris and Snowfield.

In December DV announced encouraging results from last year’s regional exploration and reconnaissance drilling on its 100% owned Dolly Varden project, which is host to two past-producing silver mines (Dolly Varden and Torbrit) and two other historically active mines (North Star and Wolf).

Encompassing 10 holes testing five regional exploration targets, the drill results demonstrated “excellent exploration and resource expansion potential on the property,” DV stated in the Dec. 10, 2021 news release.

Results are pending for the 21 holes drilled near Dolly Varden’s existing resource.

Dolly Varden Project

The Dolly Varden silver project comprises 8,800 hectares (88 sq km) in the Stewart Complex of northwestern BC, which is known to host base and precious metals deposits.

Dolly Varden project map

Mining activity dates back to 1910, when the original Dolly Varden Mine was discovered by Scandinavian prospectors.

In its early days, it was among the richest silver mines in the British Empire. The other deposit in the area to see production later was Torbrit, which, at one time, was the third-largest silver producer in Canada.

Historical records show these two deposits together have produced more than 20 million ounces of high-grade silver between 1919-1959, with assays as high as 2,200 oz (over 72 kg) per tonne.

Production subsequently ceased due to low silver prices, and the assembled property was eventually acquired by DV with a view to re-awakening the historical silver mine.

An updated NI 43-101 resource estimate completed by the company in 2019 revealed 32.9Moz silver in indicated resources and 11.477Moz inferred, for a total of 44Moz Ag, all adjacent to the historical deposits.

Dolly Varden project map

Drilling and underground work that went into the resource estimation confirmed that the mineralization occurs as two styles.

The first is VMS (volcanogenic massive sulfides) similar to that mined at Eskay Creek to the north. Once the highest-grade gold mine in the world, Eskay Creek produced 3.3Moz gold and 160Moz silver at average grades of 45/g/t Au and 2,224 g/t Ag respectively between 1994 and 2008.

The second is cross-cutting epithermal mineralization similar to that being developed at Pretium’s Valley of the Kings deposit (Brucejack Mine).

The southern part of the Golden Triangle is the least explored of all. Only 3% of Dolly Varden’s property has been explored in detail up until now, leaving plenty of potential discovery upside.

According to DV, both the Eskay Creek and Valley of the Kings deposits are located on the same structural trend to the north of the company’s ground. So, it is possible that Dolly Varden represents the southern end of a large silver district that extends northward.

To prove this, the company completed 40 drill holes (11,397m) in 2020, 19 of which were in the Torbrit area. The rest were reconnaissance and exploration drill holes, testing multiple areas on the property.

Highlights included 310 g/t over 6m, a stand-out 304 g/t over 45.82m, and 306 g/t over 5.10m. Higher-grade core within those intercepts featured 648 g/t over 6.06m, 1,595 g/t over 1.06m, and 1,290 g/t over 0.6m.

2021 drill results

Last summer, the company kicked off a surface diamond drill program on the Dolly Varden property. A total of 31 drill holes (10,506m) were completed during the 2021 field season.

This drill program was part of an aggressive two-year campaign to infill and expand the high-grade silver resource at the Torbrit deposit, and to test multiple highly prospective targets throughout the property.

The drill results encompassed 10 holes that tested five regional exploration targets on the property, including the Wolf Vein extension and Western Gold-Copper belt.

Drill hole location map

The highlight was drill hole DV21-273, which tested the southwest projection of the Wolf Vein, 94m down plunge from the current mineral resource at the Wolf deposit.

This hole intersected 1,532 g/t Ag, 0.44 g/t Au, 2.11 % Pb and 1.07% Zn over 1.22m, within a brecciated sulfide-rich quartz vein hosted within a broader pyrite stockwork breccia zone of 17.50m averaging 214 g/t Ag and 0.47% Pb.

The current resource estimate for Wolf is 3.83 million ounces of silver at 296 g/t in the indicated category. The deposit is located approximately 2 km northwest of the Torbrit deposit, which hosts most of Dolly Varden’s resources at 25 million ounces of silver indicated and 10.5 million ounces inferred.

Wolf Vein DV21-273 section, looking northeast

Hole DV21-273 is also significant as it tested the prospective Hazelton volcanic rock that underlies the sedimentary units of the Upper Hazelton for the Wolf Vein extension.

Discovering that the strong potassic alteration associated with silver mineralization within the volcanogenic Torbrit deposit continues beneath the sediment suggests that the mineralizing system continues to the west of the 4.5 km long surface anomaly.

According to DV, this opens up the exploration potential of the entire bottom of the Kitsault Valley north of Wolf towards the property boundary and onto the Homestake Ridge property, which the company recently acquired from Fury Gold Mines.

Dolly Varden and adjacent properties, including Homestake Ridge to the north.

Wolf is the northernmost deposit found at the Dolly Varden project. Modeling of the epithermal vein style deposit indicates a stepped vein system, offset by steep faults. The hanging wall has a strong barium signature and the veins contain barite and quartz. There are underground drifts at Wolf, but no historical production was reported.

Drilling at other silver prospects also returned promising results. At the Syndicate target, a near-surface vein in hole DV21-270 returned 126 g/t Ag and 1.31 g/t Au over 1.10m.

Hole DV21-272 was drilled to test the potassic alteration zone at Silver Horde, located approximately 900m north of Wolf. The structure returned 9.0m averaging 126.7 g/t Ag within the volcanic host.

In other exploration drilling, DV’s technical team is encouraged by long intervals of stockwork quartz with strongly anomalous gold (>100 ppb) over wide intervals (up to 303m) along with silver and copper at the Western Gold Belt area.

Hosted within early Jurassic volcanic rocks, this style of stockwork and alteration is analogous to numerous gold-copper deposits and mines found throughout BC’s Golden Triangle. These include KSM, Treaty Creek, Saddle, Red Chris and Snowfield.

Such a finding could be a game changer for DV, given it was previously positioned as a pure silver-focused explorer sitting on a high-grade, potentially bulk-mineable resource.

The Western Gold Belt is located on the west side of the Kitsault Valley and trends from near the Dolly Varden Mine northward for several kilometers towards Homestake Ridge.

According to DV chief executive Shawn Khunkhun, the strong porphyry-related gold-copper-silver indicators is perhaps the most significant exploration breakthrough on the property in years.

Therefore, the next phase of exploration drilling will prioritize connecting the historical mines and current deposits of the Dolly Varden trend with the deposits at Homestake 5.4 km to the northwest along the Kitsault Valley trend.

Of course, the high-grade silver intercept at Wolf is also significant, as it confirmed Dolly Varden’s resource expansion potential. Assays are pending for the 21 holes completed at the high-grade Torbrit and Kitsol Silver deposits.

The three metals Dolly Varden is exploring for, have all been posting gains of late. Gold and silver both rallied this week, as investors parked money in safe-haven metals on fears of inflation and geopolitical tensions, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting Jan. 25-26. Gold gained $30, Wednesday, and silver climbed 3%. Copper rose for a third session on Friday, breaking above 10,000 a ton as investors fled a sliding stock market and sought protection against rising inflation, Reuters said.

Gold market update

As Kitco News noted, gold’s move up coincided with the Biden administration’s announcing $200 million in military aid to Ukraine, citing fears of a Russian invasion.

“And this follows on with reports over the weekend that the UK was providing military assistance to Ukraine. It’s just like a perfect mix here for gold prices in the very short term,” DailyFX senior strategist Christopher Vecchio told the precious news outlet.

Higher inflation numbers are adding to risk-off sentiment in the market, which is already pricing in rate hikes and the possibility of central banks making a mistake while tightening.

OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam believes that traders are inflation-hedging because they don’t think central banks are doing enough to bring prices down.

The US Federal Reserve, whose job is to keep unemployment in check and inflation (the Federal Funds Rate) in the “Goldilocks” zone of 2%, is telegraphing three interest rate increases of 0.25% each (1% at the high end of the range) this year.

The US Labor Department said that its Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% from November to December, bringing producer prices to a record-high 9.7%, the biggest calendar-year increase since data was first calculated in 2010.

The same report said US consumer prices increased solidly in December, led by gains in rental accommodation and used cars, culminating in the largest annual inflation rise in 40 years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 7% in the 12 months through December, which is the biggest year on year increase since 1982.

US inflation rate (CPI)

As we have argued, the Fed (and the Treasury) is between a rock and a hard place, the Fed can’t raise rates enough to combat high inflation because doing so will wreck the economy, and imo, the Treasury will soon struggle to find enough buyers for US government bonds because the real yields are so low, currently in all cases negative.

This practically guarantees the continuation of Fed bond buying (QE) despite the much-ballyhooed taper. As for raising rates, we proved that the Fed can’t do it, at least not at the levels required to beat current inflation, which even if covid-related supply chain issues get solved, leaves another 3-4% to deal with. (higher prices will, imo, stay with us for a long time due to persistent food inflation, wage/ salary increases due to a shortage of workers, a ragged energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables that has led to high natural gas prices, and climate change which has a negative effect on crops)

Then there is the debt problem. We’ve written extensively about the dangers of the mounting US debt load. Gold correlates strongly to rising debt to GDP ratios. The US’s debt to GDP currently sits at 127.3%.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) — both reliable sources — project a deficit of $1.3T in 2022, and every year until 2031. This severely constrains the Fed’s policy options.

Each interest rate rise means the federal government must spend more on interest, reflected in the annual budget deficit, which keeps getting added to the national debt, which is almost $30 trillion. We are talking about interest costs nearing a trillion dollars per year, when the deficit is accounted for. 

Furthermore, the incentive for buying a US Treasury bill or bond is gone, the buyer’s purchasing power eroded by inflation.

The current Federal Funds Rate is .08%, but CPI inflation is 7%, giving a real (after inflation) Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) of -6.94%. This is the most negative EFFR since 1954. The 10-year yield, which pays better interest, is -5.3% in real terms.

Negative real interest rates, as most gold investors are aware, are a strong buy signal for bullion.

The fact is nobody is going to want to buy US debt at 7% inflation. The Fed will continue to print money, buy bonds and keep interest rates below 1% for as long as it can — probably hoping that inflation will magically melt away — all of which is extremely positive for gold.

Silver market  update

The Silver Institute predicted that global silver demand will rise to 1.029 billion ounces in 2021, up 15% from 2020 and exceeding a billion ounces for the first time since 2015.

In a November report, SI said every area of silver demand was forecast to rise in 2021, including a record amount of industrial demand despite ongoing supply issues.

“The recovery in silver industrial demand from the pandemic will see this segment achieve a new high of 524 million ounces (Moz). In terms of some of the key segments, we estimate that photovoltaic demand will rise by 13% to over 110Moz, a new high and highlighting silver’s key role in the green economy,” states a press release that accompanied the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review webcast.

Demand for silver used in brazing and solder is expected to improve by 10%, aided by a recovery in housing and construction.

Silver bars and coins will continue to hold investors’ interest, with the Silver Institute predicting that physical investment in 2021 will increase by 32% to 64Moz, pushing the year-on-year total to a six-year high of 263Moz. US bar and coin demand is expected to surpass 100Moz for the first time since 2015, while in India, physical investment in silver is expected to recover from last year’s collapse, and surge three-fold.

A major source of silver investment demand, exchange traded products, are forecast to see total holdings rise by 150Moz. Last January to November, silver ETP holdings increased by 83Moz, bringing the global total to 1.15Boz, within a whisker of 2020’s record-high 1.21Boz.

The supply picture for silver is especially interesting.

According to SI, “In 2021 mined silver production is expected to rise by 6% year-on-year to 829 Moz. This recovery is largely the result of most mines being able to operate at full production rates throughout the year following enforced stoppages in 2020 due to the pandemic.”

“Overall, the silver market is expected to record a physical deficit in 2021, albeit modestly. At 7Moz, this will mark the first deficit since 2015.”

Silver demand is only likely to strengthen, given its use in solder, solar panels, 5G, EVs, and printed and flexible electronics — not to mention steady investment demand in the form of physical silver (bars & coins) and silver-backed ETFs.

Remember, less than 30% of silver production comes from primary silver mines, with over half sourced from lead-zinc operations, and copper mines, meaning that silver’s fortunes are tied to other industrial metals.

The prices of zinc, lead and copper have all done quite well, rising a respective 37%, 16% and 24% from a year ago.

Source: Kitco

Copper market update

Copper is coming off a historic year during which prices broke records on not just one, but two, separate occasions, hitting $4.76/lb in mid-October after peaking in May.

Source: Kitco

During the first half of 2021, copper rallied off the back of a sharp recovery in economic activity across the world, led by top consumer China. Also pushing prices higher was the belief that pandemic-related stimulus, plus the global push for decarbonization, will further lift demand for the industrial metal.

That saw copper prices break the $10,000/t level towards the end of April, the first time that has happened in a decade, and eventually surged to a new high the week after.

Then in the second half, copper received yet another boost amid an energy crisis that affected several major producers and threatened global supply. In October, a surge in metal orders from warehouses in Europe saw LME inventories plunge by as much as 89%, to their lowest in 47 years.

All these events factored into copper’s record-breaking year, though many believe that the red metal is just getting started. Click to read AOTHs in-depth copper market analysis;

In two decades, copper producers must, at the minimum, double the current production of 20Mt to have a chance of coming close to meeting demand. This equates to one new Escondida mine (1Mt annual production) every year for the next 20 years!

While such a feat is difficult to achieve, finding the right investments in projects leading to copper discoveries would help to close the supply gap. According to CRU, the copper industry needs to spend upwards of $100 billion to erase what it estimates to be a 4.7Mt deficit by 2030.

We aren’t the only ones feeling bullish on copper. Goldman Sachs is reportedly forecasting copper will, on average, reach $5.39 in 2022 and $5.44 in 2023. The investment bank said it expects “extreme deficits” coming as soon as mid-decade, due to a lack of new development commitments, combined with accelerating growth in green demand.

“To solve the long-term supply gap copper faces, we would need to see close to 40 new average-sized copper mine projects being approved,” LiveWire quoted Goldman saying. “And as we all know, bringing forward a new mine of any description is getting harder to achieve in a timely fashion.” Indeed in some jurisdictions, getting from discovery to resource definition to commercial production, can take upwards of 20 years.

Conclusion

Snow may have blanketed the Golden Triangle of northwestern British Columbia, putting a temporary halt on all mineral exploration activities, but there is still plenty of news to come out of Dolly Varden’s namesake project. Assays are pending for the 21 holes completed at the high-grade Torbrit and Kitsol Silver deposits.

In the spring, when DV returns to the property with boots on the ground, we expect to see continued investigation of the Dolly Varden project targets, including the Wolf Vein extension and Western Gold-Copper belt.

Also likely to be a priority is the connection between the historical mines/ current deposits of the Dolly Varden trend, and the deposits at Homestake Ridge 5.4 km to the northwest along the Kitsault Valley trend.

Readers stay tuned; this is a company we’ll be watching closely.

Dolly Varden Silver Corp.
TSXV:DV, OTC:DOLLF
Cdn$0.75, 2022.12.21
Shares Outstanding 130.6m
Market cap Cdn$98.1m
DV website

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
subscribe to my free newsletter

Legal Notice / Disclaimer

Ahead of the Herd newsletter, aheadoftheherd.com, hereafter known as AOTH.

Please read the entire Disclaimer carefully before you use this website or read the newsletter. If you do not agree to all the AOTH/Richard Mills Disclaimer, do not access/read this website/newsletter/article, or any of its pages. By reading/using this AOTH/Richard Mills website/newsletter/article, and whether you actually read this Disclaimer, you are deemed to have accepted it.

Any AOTH/Richard Mills document is not, and should not be, construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.

AOTH/Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified.

AOTH/Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness.

Expressions of opinion are those of AOTH/Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice.

AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.

Furthermore, AOTH/Richard Mills assumes no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this AOTH/Richard Mills Report.

You agree that by reading AOTH/Richard Mills articles, you are acting at your OWN RISK. In no event should AOTH/Richard Mills liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained in AOTH/Richard Mills articles. Information in AOTH/Richard Mills articles is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. AOTH/Richard Mills is not suggesting the transacting of any financial instruments.

Our publications are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security – no information posted on this site is to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to do anything involving finance or money aside from performing your own due diligence and consulting with your personal registered broker/financial advisor.

AOTH/Richard Mills recommends that before investing in any securities, you consult with a professional financial planner or advisor, and that you should conduct a complete and independent investigation before investing in any security after prudent consideration of all pertinent risks.  Ahead of the Herd is not a registered broker, dealer, analyst, or advisor. We hold no investment licenses and may not sell, offer to sell, or offer to buy any security.

Richard does not own shares of Dolly Varden Silver Corp. (TSX.V:DV). DV is a paid advertiser on his site Ahead of the Herd










Author: Gail Mills

Continue Reading

Trending