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Artemis Gold: BMO Lifts Price Target After Streaming Deal

On December 14th, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (TSX:WPM) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the existing
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This article was originally published by The Deep Dive

On December 14th, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (TSX:WPM) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the existing gold stream held by New Gold Inc. (TSX: NGD). Additionally, they entered into a Precious Metal Purchase agreement with Artemis Gold Inc. (TSX: ARTG).

Wheaton will pay an upfront consideration of US$441 million for the two precious metal streams, US$300 to New Gold and US$141 million to Artemis Gold.

Artemis Gold currently has 8 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of C$13.03, or a 77% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 8 analysts, 1 analyst has a strong buy rating while the other 7 analysts have buy ratings. The street high sits at C$15 from Cormark Securities, while the lowest 12-month price target sits at C$11.

In BMO Capital Markets’ analyst note, they reiterate their outperform rating while raising their 12-month price target from C$10.00 to C$12.50, saying that the new capital injection reduces the finance overhang that Artemis was facing.

BMO says that with this US$141 million investment by Wheaton, Artemis has the $645 million first phase completely funded. The US$141 million investment is on top of Artemis’ $360 million credit facility and treasury.

They add that the latest investment from Wheaton is “the final piece of the financing required to build the first phase of Blackwater,” and believe the investment to basically be cash flow neutral in the long run.

The details of the deal say that Artemis will give 50% of all the silver produced at Blackwater until 18 million ounces has been delivered, then it will drop down to 33%. Wheaton will pay 18% of the prevailing silver price on the initial 18 million ounces, which then rise to 22%. BMO believes that this agreement maintains the companies long term ability to benefit from both gold and silver at Blackwater.

Lastly, BMO notes that Artemis has been working to lock down a good portion of the CAPEX involved in the build-out via an MOU for the construction of the powerline. They believe Artemis shares will see a re-rating as the project continues along and approached construction/production.

Below you can see BMO’s updated estimates.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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A greener trend for mining

An increasing level of stakeholder pressure has pushed the mining industry to re-think its approaches to environmental, social and governance responsibilities.
Australian…

An increasing level of stakeholder pressure has pushed the mining industry to re-think its approaches to environmental, social and governance responsibilities. Australian Mining speaks with some of the companies and organisations leading the transformation. 

The mining industry is a critical component to a decarbonised world. 

For it to remain essential, companies must adhere to external pressures to cut emissions and go beyond their responsibilities as corporate citizens.

A larger supply of critical minerals for net zero technologies will be needed for electric vehicles (EV), wind farm and solar power technologies if countries are to reach their emissions reduction targets.

Commodities including copper, nickel and rare earth elements will be important to this transformation, but growing stakeholder pressure means mining companies are needing to show a stronger commitment towards environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements to retain offtake partners and supply chain stability.

ESG standards for mining include energy efficiency, emissions reduction and water efficiency, along with improved worker safety and community relations. 

Stronger ESG standards are also making their mark on other major commodities in Australia, including iron ore and gold, two of the key resources exported from Australia. 

Ernst & Young’s (EY’s) report, Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities for mining and metals in 2022, reveals environmental and social risks will be the most significant factor for the industry to consider over the next year. 

The report surveyed 200 global mining executives that gave their insights into the risks and opportunities for the industry in the year ahead. 

“Investor and community relations have really changed,” EY global mining and metals leader Paul Mitchell says. “If you went back in time, community relations were down the flagpole and now it’s a factor that boards and CEOs ask questions about, and the importance of that role has increased.”

While the risks are present, there is value to be had by mining companies if they appease ESG demands.

Mining companies including BHP, Fortescue Metals Group and Rio Tinto have also partnered with organisations, including the Cooperative Research Centre for Transformations in Mining Economies (CRC TiME), to drive sustainable change in the industry.

CRC TiME has more than 70 industry partners across the mining and METS (mining equipment, technology and service) sectors, regional development organisations, community and first nations groups, state and federal governments and research partners, all looking to address complex challenges across mine closure and rehabilitation, which are essential aspects to ESG.

The organisation was founded through the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centre program in 2020 to improve trust between mining companies, regulators and communities. 

This is being delivered through four research programs that cover regional economic development, risk evaluation and planning, operational solutions and data integration, forecasting and scale. 

CRC TiME associate professor Bryan Maybee is part of the risk, evaluation and planning program, bringing experience in minerals and energy economics from Curtin University. 

Maybee says there is a strong value incentive for mining companies to get their rehabilitation measures completed correctly. 

“Responsible closure is one of the key factors that is used to measure ESG outcomes,” he says. “Instead of looking at a five-year or a 10-year mine life, we actually have to start looking at much longer timeframes, taking into account the life after the mine and think about the future economic use for the land.” 

Without a social licence to operate, mining companies may be at risk of being unable to develop new mining operations across global jurisdictions. 

If a mining company has an effective mine closure plan, government and community groups are more likely to accept a new development.

The risk, evaluation and planning program will aim to gel operational activity with mine closure planning, which requires changes to decision making in response to uncertainty. 

This involves advanced evaluation frameworks for assets, real-time predictive models and planning tools to identify risks. 

In June, CRC TiME initiated a study in collaboration with Fortescue, the University of Western Australia and Curtin University, which focusses on increasing plant nutrients in iron ore waste at Fortescue’s Chichester Hub operation in Western Australia.

The move towards “green” iron ore, which is mined using zero emissions is also a factor that Australia’s largest miners are having to consider.

“People want to know where everything has come from, so it is important to be able to show iron ore is mined in a responsible way,” Maybee says. “Green iron ore for example is becoming an important consideration in retaining customers for your product.

“Being a good corporate citizen being responsible as far as ESG goes, we actually have the opportunity to operate more sustainably.

“An operator that closes their mine responsibly and relinquishes it will build confidence with regulators.”

According to Maybee, stronger environmental outcomes can reduce community unrest related to an operation and therefore boost employee sentiment. 

“By operating in an ESG responsible manner and embedding those factors into the way that we operate you actually can reduce risk, which means smoother, more productive and efficient operations,” Maybee says. 

EY’s top 10 risks and opportunities for 2022. Source: Ernst & Young.

 

Solving the ESG puzzle 

There are several innovative ways that mining companies can boost their ESG compliance outside of progressive mine closures. 

Advancements in Industry 4.0 technologies have delivered real-time and predictive capabilities across the entire mining operation. 

Envirosuite global head, mining and industrial, Matt Scholl says environmental solutions offer more than just compliance for mine sites.

“Any mining company that treats environmental management as a compliance issue only, will be outcompeted by the wave of progressive miners who are already using environmental intelligence to optimise their operations,” Scholl says. 

Envirosuite recognises the importance of environmental management to ESG requirements for mine sites and has developed its environmental intelligence platform, which can optimise plans for weather risks and maintain compliance while reaching specific production goals. 

Environmental intelligence uses data, artificial intelligence and other digital technologies alongside environmental and sustainability research to prevent any environmental impacts. 

For example, the threat of changing weather patterns on an open pit mine could cause an unexpected shutdown. Envirosuite’s platform allows mine sites to develop an awareness of these risks before they occur. 

“ESG performance covers a range of areas, however, a key pillar of ESG centres on environmental management,” Scholl says. 

“ESG ratings are high-level indicators of whether companies have good measures in place to manage these risks. 

“Envirosuite provides real-time and predictive capabilities to help mining companies manage environmental risks while enabling them to optimise production.”

SRK Consulting offers specialised services for the mining industry, including environment, community and mine closure services and water management.

The company was founded in 1974 and has grown to work on more than 20,000 projects worldwide.

SRK also uses data analysis to determine strategies for mining companies to comply with regulations and address environmental and social challenges for a more effective mining operation. 

According to SRK principal consultant (geochemistry) Claire Linklater, stakeholder expectations for ESG requirements are growing. 

“I think those topics are much higher on the social and political agenda and the regulators are starting to become much more informed in these areas,” Linklater says. 

“The people that are financing mining projects pay much more attention to the ESG implications of what’s going on. 

“Poor ESG management can cause mining companies reputational damage on the global stage and might actually impact finance for another project elsewhere. 

“This is especially true of companies operating across multiple jurisdictions and continents.”

SRK can assess environmental risks in the early stages of a mining development to mitigate risks of poor environmental outcomes. 

For example, identification of problematic waste rock volumes during exploration opens up the opportunity to either avoid mining those volumes, or develop waste rock dump designs to control the potential for impacts on water quality once a mine site is up and running. 

By mitigating environmental risks before they occur, mine sites can save costly retrograde solutions down the line and prevent poor ESG ratings from stakeholder groups. 

Stakeholders are painting a clear picture of where mining company ESG requirements need to be to receive support for new developments. 

Through collaboration and the adoption of innovative ESG services, the mining industry will be able to move forward to deliver positive outcomes that are well-received by these groups.  

Australian Mining.


Author: Emily Murphy

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Precious Metals

Gold Uptrend Confirmed

It’s been a turbulent start to the year for the major market averages, with many sectors like Retail (XRT) and Staples (XLP) being hit by inflationary…

It’s been a turbulent start to the year for the major market averages, with many sectors like Retail (XRT) and Staples (XLP) being hit by inflationary pressures and continued supply chain headwinds while worries about rate hikes leading to a cool-down in valuations in tech. However, one asset class that is holding its ground is gold (GLD), which is up 1% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq by 700 basis points. This outperformance appears more than overdue, with gold typically performing its best when real rates are deep in negative territory, in line with the current backdrop. Let’s take a closer look below:

(Source: YCharts.com, Author’s Chart)

Looking at the chart above, we can see that real rates continue to trend lower and are now sitting at their lowest levels in decades, spurred by continued high single-digit inflation readings. This backdrop has typically been very favorable for gold, given that investors are not getting interest elsewhere, meaning there is no opportunity cost to holding the metal, and there is an opportunity cost to holding cash. The one impediment to gold’s performance, though, has been the fact that the major market averages have been climbing higher with a relentless bid, allowing investors to park their cash safely in the market.

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However, since the year began, this does not appear to be the case, and gold is massively outperforming the S&P-500, as well as growth and value ETFs. This has created a perfect storm for the metal, and its outperformance can be highlighted by the above chart, which shows gold recently breaking out to new multi-week highs vs. the S&P-500. A new trend upwards following a period of significant underperformance has typically led to sustained rallies in the gold price, with the most recent example being February 2020 ($1,500/oz to $2,050/oz). Hence, this is a very positive development for the gold bulls.

The key, however, is that gold’s outperformance vs. the S&P-500 is not simply due to the S&P-500 being in a bear market and gold trending lower, but just losing less ground. The good news is that this is not the case, with the monthly chart for gold showing that it is building a massive cup and handle, with much of its handle being built above its prior resistance. This is a very bullish long-term pattern, and a successful breakout above $2,000/oz would target a move to at least $2,350/oz. 

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(Source: TC2000.com)

Meanwhile, if we look at the yearly chart above, we can see an even better look at the cup and handle pattern and why the discussion that gold is dead or in a deep downtrend is simply incorrect. While one can certainly make the case that gold has gone nowhere over the past 18 months and the daily chart remains volatile, the big picture has rarely looked better in the past several decades, and zero technical damage has been done. So, for investors looking for an asset with a favorable fundamental backdrop that’s also sporting a very attractive looking long-term chart, I am hard-pressed to find anything as attractive as gold among the 150+ ETFs and assets I track. 

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(Source: TC2000.com)

So, what’s the best course of action?

One of my favored ways to play the gold sector is Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). The reason is that it has one of the best margin profiles sector-wide; the potential to increase production by more than 30% over the next nine years, and it operates out of the most attractive jurisdictions globally. This is evidenced by the fact that AEM should be able to grow annual gold production from ~3.4 million ounces to ~4.5 million ounces between now and 2030 and has 50% margins at a $1,800/oz gold price. 

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(Source: TC2000.com)

As the chart above shows, AEM’s technical picture continues to improve, with the stock building a 10+ year cup and handle base atop its prior multi-decade breakout level. This is a very bullish pattern, and a breakout above $70.00 would target a move above $95.00 in the next two years. So, with the stock consolidating near the right side of its cup and trading at a very attractive valuation of 1.0x P/NAV, I see this as an attractive entry point. Notably, AEM also pays a ~2.7% dividend yield, double that of the S&P-500. For those preferring to invest in gold, I continue to expect a trend of higher lows, with the $1,750/oz – $1,780/oz area representing a very low-risk buy zone. 

It’s no secret that GLD has massively underperformed other ETFs over the past 18 months, and with many focused on the last shiny thing and having recency bias, it’s no surprise that gold remains out of favor. However, the best time to buy the metal is when it’s been hated and has corrected sharply from its highs, making this an attractive entry point. Given that most other ETFs could use a rest, and the fundamental backdrop remains very favorable for gold, I remain medium-term and long-term bullish, and I would not be surprised to see gold above $2,080/oz this year. 

Disclosure: I am long GLD, AEM

Disclaimer: Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing. Given the volatility in the precious metals sector, position sizing is critical, so when buying precious metals stocks, position sizes should be limited to 5% or less of one’s portfolio.

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7 Bear Market Stocks to Buy If You See Trouble Ahead

With the markets in the early stage of 2022, the stage seems set for some degree of uncertainty. The good news is that the pandemic might soon become endemic….

With the markets in the early stage of 2022, the stage seems set for some degree of uncertainty. The good news is that the pandemic might soon become endemic. This is likely to help in accelerating global economic recovery. The worrying news is that there is a case for at least four interest rate hikes in 2022. In these market conditions, it’s a good idea to hold some bear market stocks.

I would define bear market stocks as low-beta stocks that are relatively immune to economic or liquidity tightening. These stocks are good for capital preservation. When market sentiments are bullish, it makes sense to go overweight on high-beta stocks. However, in uncertain or bear market conditions, I would be overweight on low-beta stocks.

I must also mention that even with four interest rate hikes, real interest rates are likely to remain negative. Investors will therefore continue to pursue exposure to risky asset classes. While I am talking about bear market stocks, I believe that a big correction is unlikely.

However, profit taking in expensive stocks is a good idea and these profits can be parked in bear market stocks.

So, let’s looks at seven stocks that that also have a healthy dividend yield.

  • Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
  • AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN)
  • Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM)
  • JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)
  • Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)
  • Equinor (NYSE:EQNR)
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

Bear Market Stocks to Buy: Walmart (WMT)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com

WMT stock is among the top picks in the list of bear market stocks. The first reason is a low-beta, which will ensure capital preservation even in a market correction. Further, WMT stock has a dividend yield of 1.53% and considering the company’s balance sheet, dividends are secure.

It’s also important to note that the U.S. is a consumption driven economy. A key part of consumption expenditure is retail spending. Even in a bear market, the company’s financial performance is likely to remain robust.

From a business perspective, Walmart has built omni-channel sales capabilities. This is one key factor that will ensure healthy comparable store sales growth. For Q3 2022, the company reported e-commerce sales growth of 8%. On a two-year stack basis, e-commerce sales growth was 87%.

International presence is another driver of long-term growth. While divestitures impacted international sales growth in Q3 2022, Walmart reported strong e-commerce growth in India, China and Mexico.

Walmart reported free cash flow of $7.7 billion for the first nine months of the current financial year. This gives the company ample flexibility for dividends and share repurchase. At the same time, the company can continue investing in high-growth international markets.

AstraZeneca (AZN)

Exterior of the AstraZeneca's manufacturing facility at SnackvikenSource: Roland Magnusson / Shutterstock.com

The pharmaceutical sector is another defensive sector to consider for bear market stocks. AZN stock is a quality pick with a five-year (monthly) beta of 0.19. Additionally, the stock has a dividend yield of 2.35%.

One reason to like AstraZeneca is the company’s healthy growth trajectory. For Q3 2021, revenue growth on a year-over-year basis was 28% to $25.4 billion. Excluding the impact of the vaccine, revenue growth was 17%. I believe that strong top-line growth is likely to sustain in the next few years.

One reason is the impact of the Covid-19 vaccine. With the Omicron variant, revenue is likely to be robust even for 2022. Additionally, there is a case for annual booster doses of the vaccine in the coming years.

Another reason to be bullish is the fact that the company has a deep pipeline of candidates. The current pipeline includes 175 projects in various stages. As more drugs are commercialized for different conditions, revenue growth will sustain. It’s also worth noting that the company is expanding its bio-pharmaceutical product presence in emerging markets with significant growth potential.

For the first nine months of 2021, AstraZeneca reported operating cash flow of $4.5 billion. This implies an annualized cash flow potential of $6.0 billion. Considering the product pipeline and global reach, it’s likely that cash flows will continue to swell in the coming years.

Overall, AZN stock is among the quality names to hold in a bear market. The stock is also worth considering for the core portfolio.

Bear Market Stocks to Buy: Newmont Mining (NEM)

Newmont (NEM) logo on a mobile phone screenSource: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock

NEM stock has been sideways for the last 12-months. The 3.39% dividend yield stock with a beta of 0.28 is worth considering among bear market stocks.

Investors will be wary of rate hikes in 2022 and its impact on gold price. However, there are two important points to note.

First and foremost, even with three or four rate hikes, real interest rates are likely to remain negative. Gold is therefore likely to remain firm at current levels.

Furthermore, in a possible bear market, investors will move funds away from risky asset classes to relatively low-risk asset classes. Gold is likely to witness fund inflow if there is a meaningful correction in equities.

These factors make NEM stock worth considering. Specific to the business, the company has a robust asset base (94 million oz. of gold reserves) and expects steady production through 2040. This provides clear cash flow visibility.

Important, Newmont expects the all-in-sustaining-cost to decline to $800 to $900 an ounce in the coming years. Even if gold trades in the range of $1,800 to $2,000 an ounce, EBITDA margin will remain robust.

For the first nine months of 2021, Newmont reported free cash flow of $1.8 billion. With an annual FCF potential of $2.5 billion, the company is positioned to increase dividends and pursue share repurchase.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) lettering on a corporate office in New York City.Source: Roman Tiraspolsky / Shutterstock.com

Banking stocks has been under-performers in the last 12-months. JPM stock has trended higher by 8% during this period. I believe that the 2.69% dividend yield stock is worth considering in a bear-market scenario.

One reason to be bullish on the banking sector in 2022 is the guidance for rate hikes. With interest rates remaining artificially low, the banks have witnessed growth primarily from non-core banking activities.

However, when interest rates trend higher, the cost of borrowing will increase for businesses and consumers. However, deposit rates are much slower to respond to rate hikes. The result will be a net interest income expansion for the banking sector.

Therefore, even if the broad markets trend lower, JPM stock might remain resilient. In particular, with the stock trading at an attractive forward price-to-earnings-ratio of 13.4.

For 2022, JPMorgan Chase set guidance for net-interest income of $50 billion as compared to $44.5 billion in 2021. A potential bear-market can impact trading or wealth management income. However, that’s likely to be offset by core banking business gains.

Overall, JPMorgan has a strong balance sheet and healthy cash flows. JPM stock seems positioned for a rally in 2022 and is worth holding in the portfolio.

Bear Market Stocks to Buy: Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks (SBUX) coffee cup on a counterSource: Natee Meepian / Shutterstock.com

SBUX is another low-beta stock that has been sideways in the last 12-months. The downside risk seems to be capped for this 2.02% dividend yield stock.

For Q4 2021, Starbucks reported revenue growth of 31% to $8.1 billion. For the same period, the company’s global comparable store sales increased by 17%. For the full year, global comparable stores sales increased by 20%. Considering the growth momentum, the stock seems to be attractively valued.

It’s also worth noting that Starbucks opened 538 new stores in Q4 2021. The rate of store opening has been robust. Further, stores in U.S. and China comprised 62% of the overall portfolio. However, in the coming years, it’s likely that Starbucks will be more diversified. There is significant untapped potential in countries like India.

Starbucks is also well positioned from a financial perspective. As of Q4 2021, the company reported $6.5 billion in cash and equivalents. Additionally, for the last financial year, operating cash flows were $5.9 billion.

Financial flexibility will ensure that store openings remain robust through 2022. On the flip-side, inflation is a concern as it might impact operating margins. However, it seems that the inflation factor is discounted in the stock price.

Equinor (EQNR)

Illustrative editorial of EQUINOR (EQNR) website homepage, with EQUINOR logo visible on display screen. ISource: II.studio / Shutterstock.com

In general, oil and gas stocks have a high-beta. However, there are exceptions and EQNR stock is among the quality names with a low-beta. A key reason for low stock volatility is a strong balance sheet and low break-even assets.

With Brent trending higher, EQNR stock has seen bullish momentum with an upside of 45% in 12-months. However, at a forward P/E of less than 10, the stock looks attractive. EQNR stock also comes with an attractive dividend yield of 2.48%.

In the next few years, the company’s Johan Sverdrup asset is likely to be a cash flow machine. The asset has a full-field break-even of $15 per barrel.

Even besides this asset, Equinor is positioned to deliver healthy cash flows. Between 2021 and 2026, the company expects free cash flow of $45 billion. With Brent trading near $80 per barrel, the FCF visibility is higher than guided.

Another reason to like Equinor is the big push towards renewable energy. Over the next five-years, the company expects to invest $23 billion in renewable assets.

It’s also worth noting that as of Q3 2021, Equinor reported net-debt ratio of 13.2%. A strong balance sheet and robust cash flows allow ample scope for dividend upside. In addition, Equinor has been aggressive on the share repurchase front.

Overall, EQNR stock is a quality stock to hold in a possible bear market. Furthermore, the stock is also worth considering for the long-term.

Bear Market Stocks to Buy: Microsoft (MSFT)

The Microsoft logo outside a building representing MSFT stock.Source: Asif Islam / Shutterstock.com

MSFT stock is another name to consider among bear market stocks. The stock has delivered healthy upside of 40% in the last 12-months. Even with a relatively unattractive dividend yield of 0.82%, the low-beta stock is worth adding to the portfolio.

Recently, investment firm Bernstein opined that Microsoft is likely to be among the big winners in the metaverse space. Bernstein has a price target of $364 for the stock. This would imply an upside potential of 19% from current levels of $306.

Microsoft has also been reporting strong quarterly numbers. For Q1 2022, the company’s revenue increased by 22% to $45.3 billion. The cloud business remains a key growth driver. For the last quarter, cloud revenue was higher by 36% to $20.7 billion.

It’s also worth noting that for Q1 2022, Microsoft reported cash flow of $19.1 billion. With an annualized cash flow potential of $80 billion, the business is a cash flow machine. This also allows Microsoft to invest in emerging technologies through the organic and inorganic route.

Overall, MSFT stock is likely to remain resilient in a broad market correction scenario. The stock is also worth holding for the medium to long-term as the metaverse trend continues to grow.

On the date of publication, Faisal Humayun did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Faisal Humayun is a senior research analyst with 12 years of industry experience in the field of credit research, equity research and financial modelling. Faisal has authored over 1,500 stock specific articles with focus on the technology, energy and commodities sector.

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