Connect with us

Economics

4 Best Dow Stocks To Buy for September

With the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus peaking and likely to soon fade, fiscal stimulus about to ramp up and stock markets continuing to hit record…

Share this article:

Published

on

This article was originally published by Investor Place

With the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus peaking and likely to soon fade, fiscal stimulus about to ramp up and stock markets continuing to hit record levels, now is a good time for conservative investors to buy Dow stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends.

On Sept. 2, Yahoo Finance reported that the summer wave of the coronavirus that has hit the U.S. may finally be peaking. The website also provided four reasons that the Delta variant may not spread to parts of the country that have not yet been hit by it.

Taking the thesis further, I recently hypothesized that the U.S. could reach herd immunity this month, effectively ending the pandemic.

Of course, if either of these theories pans out, consumer discretionary and energy stocks are very good places for investors to put their money. Also likely to boost energy and consumer discretionary stocks are the fiscal stimulus bills making their way through Congress.

One of those bills is a bipartisan measure that focuses on traditional infrastructure. So the stocks of companies that focus on that area are good names to buy for September.

Finally, stocks are hitting record levels, and the environment remains very favorable for equities, making investment banks a good place to be.

Given these points, I recommend buying the following Dow stocks for September:

  • Visa (NYSE:V)
  • Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
  • Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
  • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)

Dow Stocks to Buy: Visa (V)

Source: Kikinunchi / Shutterstock.com

The credit card king would benefit from the increased consumer spending that would be unleashed by a weakening of the coronavirus in the U.S. and other countries.

What’s more, V stock has pulled back substantially recently, losing a little more than 6% in the last month. As a result, any rebound in Visa stock that would result from a weakening of the coronavirus would probably be quite strong.

Also likely to boost consumer spending, particularly among the middle and upper classes, are the fiscal stimulus bills and the record stock market levels.

Additionally, it’s difficult to think of a company that’s better insulated against inflation than a leading credit card network whose top line automatically climbs as consumer spending rises.

After its recent pullback, Visa’s forward price-earnings ratio of 31 is not too steep.

Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (CVX) logo on blue sign in front of skyscraper buildingSource: Jeff Whyte / Shutterstock.com

Oil prices should also get a boost from a rebound of consumer spending and the upcoming fiscal stimulus.

Chevron and other large oil companies look very well-positioned to benefit from multiple likely geopolitical trends. Despite pleas from the Biden administration, OPEC+ is not looking to raise supply, making oil prices more likely to climb going forward.

Moreover, the very problematic American pullout from Afghanistan has meaningfully weakened American power and prestige in the Middle East, making various enemies of the U.S. and its allies — especially ISIS, Iran, Iranian proxies, and Russia –much more likely to take aggressive steps in the region.

As a result, there’s a good chance that armed conflicts and terrorism will proliferate in the Middle East sooner rather  than later, pushing oil prices higher.

Chevron’s 5.6% dividend yield is also, of course, very appealing. But I’d recommend holding the shares for six months or less, given the possibility of disruption to and worries about the oil sector arising from the rise of electric vehicles.

Dow Stocks to Buy: Caterpillar (CAT)

stocks to buySource: Shutterstock

With the infrastructure bill including $110 billion for roads and bridges, $39 billion for public transit, $25 billion for airports and $17 billion for ports, huge demand should arise for Caterpillar’s construction equipment.

Since Caterpillar generates a meaningful amount of revenue from oil exploration equipment, it should benefit from higher oil prices as well. And as inflation greatly boosts the dollar value of minerals, its mining equipment business should really take off as well.

Even the EV revolution should help Caterpillar at the margins, as new power plants and EV charging stations are built.

Caterpillar’s top line jumped a hefty 29% year-over-year in the second quarter, and the conglomerate said it was benefiting from “higher end-user demand for equipment and services and the impact from changes in dealer inventories.”

CAT stock has a 2.15% dividend yield and has an attractive forward price-earnings ratio of under 17.

Goldman Sachs (GS)

The Goldman Sachs (GS) logo is displayed on a smartphone in front of a multi-color background.Source: Volodymyr Plysiuk / Shutterstock.com

The Fed looks set to continue to purchase large amounts of Treasury and mortgage bonds for the foreseeable future, keeping intact the huge profit center of Goldman and its investment bank peers.

Moreover, the economy looks poised to continue strengthening for a long time and equities are a good hedge against inflation. Finally, interest rates should remain quite low for a very long time, facilitating debt raises and M&A deals.

In July, Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo agreed that the environment was likely to remain favorable for capital markets for a very long time.

“A lot of the outsized growth has remained (so far) and optimistic GDP projections point to more of the same in the near term,” Mayo wrote.

He was citing investment banking backlogs that were close to or had eclipsed records, along with the potential for increases in M&A.

For Q2, Goldman’s results beat analysts’ average expectations, as its Q2 top line jumped nearly 16% year-over-year. In a sign of confidence, the firm raised its quarterly dividend 60% to $2.

On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

More From InvestorPlace

The post 4 Best Dow Stocks To Buy for September appeared first on InvestorPlace.

Economics

US indices close week mixed, weighed down by tech stocks

Benchmark US indices closed the trading week mixed on Friday September 24 pulled down by losses in technology and healthcare sectors amid mixed global…

Share this article:

Benchmark US indices closed the trading week mixed on Friday, September 24, pulled down by losses in technology and healthcare sectors amid mixed global cues.

The S&P 500 was up 0.15% to 4,455.48. The Dow Jones rose 0.10% to 34,798.00. The NASDAQ Composite fell 0.03% to 15,047.70, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 0.49% to 2,248.07.

Global markets remained volatile this week amid mixed cues. US stocks wavered after news that Chinese real estate giant Evergrande Group was on the brink of a major default.

Its US$300 billion debt bomb has sent shockwaves across the global markets. On Thursday, it entered a 30-day grace period after missing an interest payment deadline.

The Fed's sooner-than-expected timeline for stimulus tapering also weighed on investors' minds. The central bank said this week that it is considering withdrawing its bond-buying program by November. Consequently, an interest rate hike may be imminent.

Separately, the Biden administration is also planning to increase the corporate tax. It is currently debating a spending bill, which is expected to outline the program.

On Friday, the energy and financial stocks were the top gainers on S&P 500 index. Real estate and healthcare stocks were the bottom movers. Six of the 11 index segments stayed in the green.

Shares of Nike, Inc (NKE) fell 6.17% after it lowered its sales forecast. The company said it is facing challenges to meet the demand for shoes and athlete wear due to delays in production and shipping. Nevertheless, its revenue jumped 16% YoY to US$12.2 billion in Q1, FY22.

Meredith Corporation (MDP) stock rose 25.27 percent after news that the magazine publisher is in advanced talks for its purchase by media and internet holding company IAC/InterActiveCorp.

In the healthcare sector, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) fell 4.65%, Dexcom Inc. (DXCM) shed 2.25%, and Waters Corporation (WAT) fell 1.78%. Resmed Inc. (RMD) and Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) ticked down 1.37% and 1.06%, respectively.

In technology stocks, Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) declined 3.04%, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) fell 1.89%, and Adobe Inc. (ADBE) declined 1.48%. Accenture plc (ACN) shed 1.20%, and Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) gained 2.47%.

In the energy sector, ConocoPhillips (COP) rose 2.43%, EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) gained 2.45%, and Baker Hughes Co (BKR) gained 1.25%. Hess Corporation (HES) and Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) advanced 1.10 and 3.21%, respectively.

In the crypto market, prices tumbled after the Central Bank of China declared crypto transactions illegal. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.49%, Ethereum (ETH) fell 7.74%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) declined 6.82%.

Also read: With chipmakers in the spotlight, here’s a peek at five of them

Also read: Top five communication stocks that rode the Q2 rebound

Six of the 11 segments of the S&P 500 index stayed in the green.

Also read: Why are Salesforce (CRM), Affirm (AFRM) stocks in limelight today?

 Futures & Commodities

Gold futures were up 0.03% to US$1,750.40 per ounce. Silver decreased by 1.21% to US$22.405 per ounce, while copper rose 1.20% to US$4.2817.

Brent oil futures increased by 1.04% to US$78.05 per barrel and WTI crude was up 0.93% to US$73.98.

Also Read: In the Spotlight: Top 50 US startups in 2021

Bond Market

The 30-year Treasury bond yields was up 3.15% to 1.985, while the 10-year bond yields rose 3.02% to 1.453.

US Dollar Futures Index increased by 0.27% to US$93.278.

Continue Reading

Economics

China Is Responsible For More Than A Third Of World GDP Growth – This Is A Problem

China Is Responsible For More Than A Third Of World GDP Growth – This Is A Problem

As Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos writes…

Share this article:

China Is Responsible For More Than A Third Of World GDP Growth - This Is A Problem

As Deutsche Bank's FX strategist George Saravelos writes in a recent research report he has been "on the pessimistic side of the reflation narrative for some time now."

In the note titled "three charts for pessimists", he admits that there are many more things happening to the global economy than easy fiscal and monetary policy, including a large negative supply-shock, in turn leading to sizeable demand destruction; stronger than expected precautionary saving behavior from consumers pushing down r*; and massive structural economic change on the back of COVID-led digitization across multiple sectors. And now we have to add China to the mix.

His first chart below highlights a simple observation: China has been acting as a massive global growth turbocharge since the start of the century, and is responsible for more than a third of world GDP growth. As Saravelos gloomily notes, "systemic risks of the unfolding property developer crisis aside, if the last few months experience are signaling a regime break in Chinese tolerance for what authorities have termed "low quality" growth, the world should take notice."

Back to the developed world, Saravelos' second chart shows there is still a massive hole in the UK labor market. Total hours worked are a whopping near-10% below trend compared to pre-COVID. Yet the market is now fully pricing a Bank of England rate hike early next year. For sure, wages are rising, but as a recent IFS study showed there are still massive disruptions in the UK labor market. It will take a brave central bank to hike in to such a hole. Even if it does, it is hardly positive for the currency.

Finally, there are two parallel universes. The global goods sector is overheated. Look no further than US consumption, which is half a trillion dollars above trend. But the US services sector is twice as large and half a trillion below trend. The analytical value of aggregate GDP metrics is severely lessened in the presence of such massive sectoral dislocations. In recent months, the goods sector has started decelerating faster than the services sector has quickened. How the consumer rebalances spending in coming months will be very important.

We are only at the very beginning of trying to understand the true post-COVID steady state, it will be a long ride.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 20:20
Continue Reading

Economics

Finally The Taper Tantrum, Or What’s Wrong With August?

If you’re fortunate to be able to do this long enough, you’re absolutely assured to get caught with your pants down and almost certainly more than once….

Share this article:

If you’re fortunate to be able to do this long enough, you’re absolutely assured to get caught with your pants down and almost certainly more than once. In the short run, it’s all a crapshoot anyway. Markets fluctuate and never, ever go in a straight line. And just when you claim to be right on top, they yank the rug right out from under your conceit(s).

I’ve spent the past few weeks, really months pointing out how Federal Reserve policymakers via their compliant media hasn’t been able to provoke anything out of bonds. Not for lack of trying. Zilch. Nada. Forget tantrum, a whole lot of nothing even though taper – we’re always told – would spell the death of the bond “bull.” I’ve been almost gleefully highlighting how this policy farce has been greeted as a complete non-issue across all of those markets.

Until yesterday.

Finally, yields backed up both then and today in a notable selloff. Is this the long-awaited tantrum? Could it be something else?

For the former, start with Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Recall on August 2nd how Mr. Waller had appeared on CNBC and became the first voting FOMC member to encourage not just taper but a very quick one so as to clear enough calendar for a hard 2022 liftoff in rates.

Just two days later, it might appear his “go early, go fast” mantra caught on with at least some parts of the yield curve. From August 5 forward, the long end of the Treasury curve has been backing up from that recent mid-year low. August 4 was the last time before what is now a multi-week somewhat modest possibly reflationary action.

Before crowning Waller’s confidence, that particular date – August 4 – should ring a bell. Wasn’t it just last year, 2020, that longer-term bond yields had likewise bottomed out on this same day?

Yes, yes it was:



Obviously, the past two years began under very different circumstances; 2020 taking over from 2019 already close if not in recession (especially outside the US) and then the COVID errors. This year, 2021, opened in nearly opposite fashion with allegedly the whole world picking itself back up from all that damage and doing so boosted by every “stimulus” means known to man. Not just rebound, a fiery inflation-filled recovery. 

Yet, in the middle of both there’s more the same than different – questions about the initial “V” shaped recovery (which did not pan out) last year and then a pretty conspicuous “growth scare” this year many are plain hoping they can blame on delta COVID for the “unexpected” soft patch.

You probably also remember how that same label “growth scare” was also thrown around quite liberally in 2019, too. Back then, the only part of the yield curve anyone is told to pay attention to had inverted, not just provoking rate cuts out of a befuddled Jay Powell but raising mainstream alarms as to impending recession (which may actually have happened, but we’ll never know for sure given the timing of the coronavirus pandemic).

Wouldn’t you know it, the low point for LT UST’s in 2019 turned out to have been…August 28!



If twice could be random coincidence, yet three times is a pattern, what is four or five? Believe it or not, this same calendar shape can be found inside every one of the last five years – even 2018 when yields were more distorted as they neared their Reflation #3 peak. That year, the same sort of mid-year downward drift reaching its floor by August 20, 2018.

And the year before, during globally synchronized growth’s reported arrival, UST rates were, for the most part, moving lower (curve flattening) as the market kept rejecting the idea that there was some legitimately inflationary recovery taking shape. The low in yields for 2017? September 5 (OK, so not August but more than close enough).



Even 2015 and 2016 were pretty close in matching this seasonality; during the latter, yields bottomed out early July and then went up (a lot) later in the Autumn. The year before, 2015, as Euro$ #3 “matured”, again a mid-year low on August 24 (following CNY’s big theatrics) which had been the same day as the eurodollar shortage striking Wall Street equities (flash crash).

While there were a couple days later on in 2015 when the 10-year yield dropped a few bps lower than August 24, still the same general trend overall.

And that trend seems to have become intriguingly normal, manifested as a regular uptick in yields especially during September and October and then lasting through the end of each year (2018 the obvious exception given the eruption of Euro$ #4’s landmine). Quite simple enough, LT yields go up after August

Given this clear regularity, could any of these annual BOND ROUTs!!!! be considered reflationary?

Getting back to the original question, there’s quite a lot of evidence for something(s) other than Governor Waller’s melodramatic CNBC interview – or even the taper announcement and dots this week – which seems more likely to account for the bond market’s longer end behavior over the past five weeks. And this would also encompass the “big” selloff yesterday and today.

These last two days, then, have not been some unusual, tantrum-y eruption (look above at how far yields jumped in early September 2019 even as recession moved into the global forefront). Quite to the contrary, what’s happened so far over the past two months is entirely consistent with what seems to happen every year. Taper doesn’t. 

This could even mean I’m actually off-the-hook, my britches still fashioned tightly right where they need to be. The Fed’s people will continue trying to provoke a bond tantrum because of their need for the public to believe taper is in charge of interest rates, yet right at this moment there’s only evidence that bonds are just doing what they normally do without regard for dots and QE’s.

This only raises the question, of course, what the hell must be going on during the month of August? Sorry for the cliffhanger, but that I’ll save for another day. Feel free, however, to tweet or comment your theories and hopefully during next week’s podcast Emil Kalinowski and I will be able to discuss them.

 



Continue Reading

Trending