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4% Of Americans Say They Have Quit Their Jobs Thanks To Their Crypto Gains

4% Of Americans Say They Have Quit Their Jobs Thanks To Their Crypto Gains

Billionaire Mark Cuban just shared some insight into why so many…



This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

4% Of Americans Say They Have Quit Their Jobs Thanks To Their Crypto Gains

Billionaire Mark Cuban just shared some insight into why so many Americans are quitting their (typically low-paying) jobs, and as it turns out, wealth tied to gains in the cryptocurrency market has a lot to do with it.

As Cuban – who has previously said that he’s “more of an eth guy” – pointed out in a tweet (citing an article published a few days ago by Civic Science) that, according to at least one survey, 4% of Americans shave quit their job over the last year due to “financial freedom earned by investing in cryptocurrency” and another 7% say they know somebody who has.

Source: Civic Science

While these single-digit number might not seem like much at first glance, as Cuban points out, there’s an important piece of context here: most of these people quitting their jobs aren’t bitcoin millionaires. In fact, it’s just the opposite: most of those quitting their jobs are in “the lowest income brackets”. In other words, they will be back to work some day. Whether demand for work returns gradually, or all at once, will be a key question for markets and the economy going forward.

Put another way: one factor driving the worker shortage is the fact that millions of workers who aren’t used to having extra money in the bank have suddenly found themselves with tens of thousands of dollars (at least on paper). Some may have cashed out and sold their crypto to the legion of institutional buyers now rotating into the market (thanks to offerings like BITO). Others might be borrowing against it, or selling a little at a time.

But one factor that’s clear is that the money raised by many of these investors isn’t exactly life-changing. While it may have been enough for some to retire permanently, most are using it as another form of asset diversification, not a source of income. At some point, if crypto prices fall, or if they at the very least don’t keep rising in perpetuity

This data implies that while investing in crypto may have provided life-changing levels of income for some, the wealthier owners of crypto use it more as another form of asset diversification rather than source of income.

Those in lower-income brackets mostly aren’t used to having so much money, and since job openings (especially for lower-paying jobs) are so plentiful – and most in lower income brackets are so used to living paycheck to paycheck (or having little in savings) – they’re essentially seizing the opportunity to take some time off from work while they pivot to the play the role of amateur crypto speculators, like many Americans did with tech stocks back in the 1990s.

And now that retirees and more institutional investors can buy into the crypto market via BITO, wealthier investors are

What’s more, for many people, it appears that trading crypto has acted as a kind of gateway drug to trading stocks,  the record highs in stocks, particularly the surge in so-called “meme stocks”.

Finally, younger investors have more of a tendency to see cryptocurrency as a long-term investment…

…and they’re also more likely to see crypto wealth as a pathway to becoming wealthier than their parents were.


The American economy is of course complex, and not everybody sitting at home instead of working is sitting on a cushion of crypto wealth. The federal government and the states have handed out enough stimulus money that this labor shortage really shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody. That many (mostly younger) people turned around, took that money and bet it on crypto shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.

If anything, this data is just the latest reminder that in the age of “the everything bubble”, everything in the world of markets and the economy truly is connected.

Though, of course, if you ask Jerome Powell, he’ll tell you the labor market shortages are due to workers’ fears of COVID.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/05/2021 – 21:20

Author: Tyler Durden


“Prices…Have Gone Up” – Kamala Harris ‘Explains’ Decade-High Inflation In The US

"Prices…Have Gone Up" – Kamala Harris ‘Explains’ Decade-High Inflation In The US

President Biden and his VP Kamala Harris have tried their…

“Prices…Have Gone Up” – Kamala Harris ‘Explains’ Decade-High Inflation In The US

President Biden and his VP Kamala Harris have tried their hardest this week to try and win back the approval of the American people by offering desperate handouts from the US strategic petroleum reserves as Americans brace for the highest pre-Thanksgiving prices for gasoline ever (which has been driving inflation higher more generally).

But the reality is that fewer Americans trust Biden to handle the economy now that they’re struggling with the results of Democrats’ free-spending ways, leaving the president’s approval rating to slide to the lowest levels yet (and VP Harris’ approval rating at the lowest of any VP in history).

And while President Biden has struggled to shift the blame for surging inflation while desperately trying to combat higher oil prices, his No. 2, VP Harris – who has already had her first taste of leadership, officially serving in Biden’s stead for several hours while he underwent anesthesia for a colonoscopy earlier this month – has offered her own overly simplistic take on why inflation seems to be surging during a recent interview.

It’s all because – to put it in Harris’s own words – “prices…have gone up…”

But why are Americans struggling with the highest prices in a decade this fall? Wasn’t this all supposed to be – to use the words repeatedly marshaled by the Fed’s newly renominated Jerome Powell – transitory?

Even when confronted by Democratic operatives posing as reporters (ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos is a former advisor to the Clinton’s), Harris has struggled to explain it all.

But this hasn’t stopped her from buying in expensive cookware during a recent diplomatic trip to the Louvre, as the Washington Free Beacon reveals.

Amid economic turmoil and calls to buy local in the United States, Vice President Kamala Harris dropped nearly $400 for a single pot at a boutique shop in Paris, the Washington Free Beacon has learned.

Overseas last week on a four-day diplomatic trip to mend the U.S. relationship with France, Harris stopped in at E. Dehillerin, a pricey cookware shop outside the Louvre museum, where she dropped hundreds of dollars on various kitchen items. The big-ticket items in the haul were a $375 serving dish and $160 frying pan, the Parisian specialty store told the Free Beacon. The vice president rounded out her purchase with various smaller accessories, such as a porcelain cocotte and egg dish, a copper cleaner, and various wooden spoons.

All together Harris spent 516 euros, which amounts to roughly 600 dollars at the current exchange rate. Reporters joined Harris in the store as she browsed but were kicked out before they could record details of her lavish purchase, according to C-SPAN video of the E. Dehillerin visit.

So, while millions of Americans struggle to pay for their own Thanksgiving dinner, Harris is spending $400 at a fancy Louvre gift shop.

Could there be a more appropriate symbol of the Democrats’ contemporary malaise?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/24/2021 – 11:10

Author: Tyler Durden

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Hutchins Roundup: Firm uncertainty, standardized test scores, and more 

What’s the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts, and speeches. Want…

By Sophia Campbell, Lorena Hernandez Barcena, Nasiha Salwati, Louise Sheiner

What’s the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts, and speeches. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. 

Firm-level uncertainty about future sales growth roughly doubled in response to the pandemic  

In a survey of U.S. and U.K. business executives, Philip Bunn of the Bank of England and co-authors find that firms’ average uncertainty in the spring of 2020 about sales growth over the coming year (measured by the standard deviation of the distribution of their sales growth forecasts) roughly doubled due to COVID-19, rising in the U.S. from about 3% pre-pandemic to 6.4% in May 2021 and in the U.K. from 4.9% to 8.5%. Firm-level uncertainty has since fallen as the COVID shock recedes, but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The distribution of firms’ uncertainty has shifted considerably, however. At the beginning of the pandemic, firms weighted the probability of sharply negative growth rates as highly likely, but in recent months, firms report more uncertainty about high sales growth. “In short,” the authors say, “business executives went from worrying about how bad COVID might get to wondering about how strongly they might bounce back.”  

Test scores declined in the 2020-21 school year  

Using data on standardized test scores from school districts in 12 states, Clare Halloran of Brown University and co-authors find that, on average, math test passage rates declined by 14.2 percentage points in the 2020-21 school year compared to the 2015-16 through 2018-19 school years. They estimate that for school districts offering fully in-person instruction (rather than partially or entirely virtual), the decline was 10.1 percentage points smaller. In addition, they note that school districts with larger Black and Hispanic student populations were less likely to offer in-person learning, and suffered larger declines in test scores. The authors caution that it is difficult – if not impossible – to disentangle the extent to which the in-person learning itself caused differential outcomes, as opposed to the additional pandemic-related changes in students’ lives that correlate with access to in-person learning.   

Supply constraints in the US manufacturing sector began easing in June  

Using the deviations of unfilled orders and inventories from their long-term relationships with shipments to estimate output losses caused by supply chain bottlenecks, Charles Gilbert, Maria Tito, and Cynthia Doniger of the Federal Reserve Board find that supply chain bottlenecks lowered monthly production growth in manufacturing industries excluding transportation by 0.2 percentage point in the first half of 2021, but began easing in June. Nonetheless, production in September 2021 was 0.6 percentage point below what it would have been had there been no bottlenecks. The authors note that their findings are correlated with reports of materials shortages in the manufacturing sector, a prevailing indicator of bottlenecks.   

Chart of the week: Japan’s price levels remain steady while inflation climbs in the US and in Europe 

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Quote of the week: 

“[I]nflation has escalated substantially this year, along with a significant rise in inflation expectations … I expect that these pressures are related to both supply constraints, which may be beginning to improve, and strong demand, which shows no sign of abating. Wages continue to grow quickly on a more sustained basis than they have in more than 20 years, most recently reflected in a striking increase in the employment cost index, which considers both pay and benefits. Wages and employment costs seem to be widespread across industries and among businesses of different sizes. Crucial to the path of inflation will be whether we see input cost increases consistently reflected in final goods prices. Our business contacts report that companies are comfortable passing along these cost increases to their customers,” says Christopher Waller, Member, Federal Reserve Board. 

“It has been argued that because price pressures connected to supply constraints are transitory, they will come to an end, so monetary policy does not need to respond to temporary price pressures. I find this argument puzzling for a few reasons. First, all shocks tend to be transitory and eventually fade away; by this logic, the Fed should never respond to any shocks, but it sometimes does, as it should. Second, the macroeconomic models we use to guide policy typically have cost shocks built in that cause inflation to move. In those models, appropriate monetary policy responds to these inflation movements; it doesn’t ignore them, even though they are transitory. Finally, the choice to take a policy action depends on how large the shocks are and how long they are expected to persist … To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward.” 

The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation. 

Author: mmaydani

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UMich Sentiment Holds At 10-Year Lows, Inflation Expectations At 13 Year High

UMich Sentiment Holds At 10-Year Lows, Inflation Expectations At 13 Year High

After plunging to decade-lows in preliminary data, analysts…

UMich Sentiment Holds At 10-Year Lows, Inflation Expectations At 13 Year High

After plunging to decade-lows in preliminary data, analysts expected practically no bounce at all for the final November print of University Of Michigan’s Sentiment survey, but in fact the data did bounce a little.

  • The headline print rose from 66.8 prelim to 67.4 final but remains well below the 71.7 October print.

  • Current Conditions rose from 73.2 prelim to 73.6 final for November (still below October’s 77.7).

  • Expectations also rebounded modestly from 62.8 to 63.5 final, but well below the 67.9 final print from October.

However, despite the intramonth bounce (which was small), headline sentiment remains at its lowest since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

Buying Attitudes all dropped in November to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

“Rather than gradually easing along with diminished shortages, complaints about falling living standards doubled in the past six months,” Curtin said.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Americans’ expectations for the future path of inflation remain at their highest since 2008 fro the short-term and medium-term picked up as the month proceeded…

Source: Bloomberg

“While pandemic induced supply-line shortages were the precipitating cause, the roots of inflation have grown and spread more broadly across the economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Not what Brainard wanted to see!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/24/2021 – 10:18

Author: Tyler Durden

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