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5 Divergences In The Stock Market To Keep An Eye On This Fall

5 Divergences In The Stock Market To Keep An Eye On This Fall

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

With the S&P…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge
5 Divergences In The Stock Market To Keep An Eye On This Fall

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

With the S&P 500 up nearly 20% and international developed stocks up 13% year-to-date, the markets are having a banner year so far. But, we are squarely in the weakest seasonal months of the year (September and October) and we are starting to see the first signs of divergences between stocks and variables that are related to stock market performance. Not only that, but we have a Federal Reserve that will likely soon lay plans for asset purchase tapering; and a Washington DC that is grappling the debt ceiling, potential government shut downs, potential default, and an infrastructure bill that may include significant tax increases. Needless to say, between market divergences, seasonality, and policy dynamics, there’s a growing potential for the stock market to see some increased volatility in the near future.

So, here are the things we are looking at and will continue to monitor this fall to help ascertain whether 3% dips should be bought or whether a deeper correction is in the offing.

Number 1: Consumer confidence.

Consumer confidence, whether measured by the Conference Board or the University of Michigan is starting to “come off” in a pretty big way. This isn’t the post to opine about the reasons for the decline (inflation, unemployment, housing shortages, gas prices, etc.), but we do note that consumer confidence is highly correlated to stock market performance. This makes sense since fully 57% of US households own stocks. So, it’s interesting that consumer confidence (red line) appears to be collapsing but stocks have held their own (blue line).

In this next chart we show the spread between the YoY % change in the S&P 500 and that of consumer confidence, and we observe that this spread has only been higher on a few brief occasions.

This begs the question, will stocks fall or consumer confidence rise?

Number 2: Economic Activity

In a similar vein, stocks are outpacing real time gauges of economic activity by a wide margin. Here we plot the change in the ISM manufacturing index (red) against the S&P 500 (blue). Activity is slowing while stocks remain firm, which is odd since earnings are a function of economic activity.

In this next chart we can see more clearly by how much stocks are “outperforming” economic growth. Again, we plot the spread between the yearly change in the S&P 500 and the ISM manufacturing index.

It’s in nosebleed territory, implying either growth picks up steam or stocks settle down.

Number 3: Breadth

We are beginning to see a deterioration in internal breadth within the stock market. The S&P 500 is close to its all-time highs and trading almost 10% above its 200 day moving average. But, the percent of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average peaked out in Q1 and is rolling over.

In other words, the market is being led by fewer and fewer stocks on each subsequent advance, a setup that can be a precursor for correction, if it gets worse.

Number 4: Waning Participation

Sticking with indicators of market breadth, we note that the Bloomberg advance-decline line for NYSE stocks peaked last June and has been developing a topping pattern ever since.

This, too, shows waning participation in the market’s advance, which is often precedes corrections deeper than the 3% average correction we’ve seen so far this year.

Number 5: Credit

Finally, while early, credit conditions are no longer improving. Typically, advances in stocks are accompanied by tightening credit spreads in the corporate bond market, since rising stock prices are at least in part a function of improving fundamentals. Yet, corporate credit spreads stopped narrowing in June even as the S&P 500 tacked on another 7%. If spreads take out recent wides, we would view it as a sign that bond investors are starting to get jittery about corporate fundamentals, which is rarely good news for stock prices.

To be clear, none of these divergences individually are screaming for defensive action. But, taken together, they form a mosaic that suggests the antennae should be a little more piqued than normal. This is especially true given that we’re still in hurricane season, both from a market and policy perspective…and of course from a weather perspective too.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/12/2021 - 10:30

Precious Metals

Is Silver a good buy in October 2021?

Silver extended its correction from the recent highs above $24, and we could see even lower prices in the weeks ahead if the U.S. dollar remains strong….

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Silver extended its correction from the recent highs above $24, and we could see even lower prices in the weeks ahead if the U.S. dollar remains strong. The demand for the dollar continues to grow, although it remained below its weekly high of 0.86 compared to the euro.

Fundamental analysis: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates could rise quicker than expected

Since the beginning of September, the silver price has weakened more than 5% and reached the price levels that we had seen in November 2020. The U.S. central bank reported on Wednesday it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November 2021, which positively influenced the U.S. dollar, and the most significant force behind the silver price slide is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar.

“The U.S. central bank is preparing the ground to possibly begin dialing back some of the extraordinary support it has given the economy during the pandemic. The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve switched to a more hawkish tone, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates could rise quicker than expected by next year. Jerome Powell also said that Fed achieved its goal on inflation, while more than half of Fed members believe that the economy reached the employment goal.

The global business activity is recovering, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August, and the rapid price increases are also a reason to begin raising rates. The prospect of interest rate hikes positively influences the U.S. dollar, and those whose interest is to invest in precious metals like Silver should have the U.S. dollar on their “watch list.”

Technical analysis: $20 represents a strong support level

Those whose interest is to invest in commodities like Silver should consider that the risk of further decline is still not over.

Data source: tradingview.com

The important support level currently stands at $20, and if the price falls below this level, it would be a firm “sell” signal. The next price target could be around $18 or even below.

On the other side, if the price jumps above $25, it would be a signal to trade Silver, and we have the open way to $27.

Summary

Silver price remains under pressure after the U.S. central bank reported that it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November. The most important driving force behind the price slide is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, and investors will continue to pay attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve comments.

The post Is Silver a good buy in October 2021? appeared first on Invezz.

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Economics

Market-Based Indicators of Inflation, Growth and Risk

Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained. Figure 1: Top panel: Five…

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Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.

Figure 1: Top panel: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium per DKW (red), all in %. Middle panel: 10 year-3 month Treasury spread (blue), 10 year-2 year Treasury spread (red), both in %. Bottom panel: VIX (teal, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty, 7 day centered moving average (salmon, right scale).  NBER defined recession dates shaded gray (from beginning of month after peak month to end of trough month). Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, KWW following D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) , FRED, policyuncertainty.com, NBER and author’s calculations.

The top panel of Figure 1 shows that the standard breakeven for 5 year horizon has stabilized; the adjusted for inflation risk premium/liquidity premium indicator was also stable at end-August, indicating 1.18% inflation on average.

Expectations as proxied by term spreads suggest that growth trends bottomed out in mid-July, after peaking in mid-March. They’re now rising slightly over the last two weeks.

Finally, a market based measure of risk (the VIX) has is relatively quiescent. So too is the newspaper account based Baker-Bloom-Davis measure of policy uncertainty. This is true despite the rising political uncertainty regarding passage of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills, and more importantly, the raising of the debt ceiling. Credit spreads have also failed (so far) to evidence much reaction:

Notes: The ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of investment grade bonds BB and below, and a spot Treasury curve.  Source: FRED, accessed 9/25/2021.

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Economics

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Central bank digital currencies…

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Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Central bank digital currencies are on the way. The German Central Bank just embraced a digital euro. Let's discuss the risks...

Fintech and Global Payments

 Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank gave the opening speech at the digital conference “Fintech and the global payments landscape – exploring new horizons

Exploring a Digital Euro

The title of Weidmann speech was Exploring a Digital Euro

Emphasis mine with my thoughts in braces [ ]

Paper money, for instance, was first introduced in China about a thousand years ago. This innovation eventually transformed the payments system. Today, digitalisation is on the cusp of overhauling payments.

Central banks have to work out how to respond to this challenge. One possibility is the issuing of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). According to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the share of central banks conducting work on CBDC for general or wholesale use rose to 86% last year. Many of them have made significant progress.

Two months ago, the Eurosystem launched a project to investigate key questions regarding the design of a CBDC for the euro area. The aim of the investigation is to prepare us for the potential launch of a digital euro. Experiments have already shown that, in principle, a digital euro is feasible using existing technologies.

As my ECB colleague Fabio Panetta has stressed, a digital euro would have “no liquidity risk, no credit risk, no market risk,” in this way resembling cash.

[No Risk? Really] 

The protection of privacy would thus be a key priority in terms of maintaining people’s trust. European data protection rules would have to be complied with. Nevertheless, a digital euro would not be as anonymous as cash. In order to prevent illicit activities such as money laundering or terrorist financing, legitimate authorities would have to be able to trace transactions in individual, justified cases.

[Every Case]

But designing CBDC involves curbing its risks. In order to prevent excessive withdrawals of bank deposits, it has been suggested that a cap be placed on the amount of digital euro that each individual can hold. Or that digital euro holdings in excess of a certain limit could be rendered unattractive by applying a penalty interest rate.

[No Risk? I thought you said there was no risk.]

If a digital euro were accessible for non-residents, this could impact on capital flows and euro exchange rates. What this calls for is international and multilateral collaboration.

[Wait a second, is this another risk?]

Self-reinforcing loops and “lock-in” effects may tie users to one platform and exclude competitors. Some observers have been reminded of “Hotel California”, the famous song by the American rock band “The Eagles”: it’s such a lovely place, with plenty of room; but once inside you can never leave.

[Hotel Central Bank: Once inside you can never leave.]

The Eurosystem has no commercial interest in user data or behaviour. A digital euro could therefore help to safeguard what has always been the essence of money: trust.

[Ah yes, trust that interest rates won't go even more negative, money won't expire, and withdrawals won't be capped].

Central banks need to be at the cutting edge of technology. Otherwise, they cannot provide the backbone of payment systems and offer safe and trusted money for the digital age.

This has prompted all major central banks to start exploring issuance of CBDC. However, our success as a money creator will depend not so much on speed, but on the trust of those who are supposed to use the money.

Europe Moving Ahead

It appears Europe is moving ahead faster than the Fed. 

The risks are obvious.

  • Expiring Money

  • Increasingly Negative Interest Rates

  • Withdrawals Capped

  • Withdrawals Taxed 

  • Gifts Taxed

And once inside you can never leave. 

Livin' it up at the Hotel Fedifornia has a nice ring to it. ECBifornia isn't as catchy. 

* * *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 13:00
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