Up until mid-November, arguably most cryptocurrency investors were enthused about Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) swinging toward the once-mythical target, $100,000. Yes, that link is a trip down memory lane, where almost four years ago to the date I mentioned that Bitcoin at $10,000 was no bubble. Further, I posited the idea of the coin hitting six figures. Cryptos being what they are, I was both right and wrong.
Obviously, Bitcoin was a bubble. To be fair, BTC did swing close to the $20,000 mark so investors who bought in at 10k weren’t necessarily complaining. And while they must have complained when BTC eventually dropped to approximately the $3,300 level, I was generally right about the upward trajectory of cryptos. As I said back then, “the only grey area is the timing.”
Now, the timing is back at the center of the discussion. Since the middle of this month, BTC dropped below critical psychological thresholds, first falling below $60,000 and then threatening to hit the $55,000 floor. Fortunately, this level has held strong against bearish attacks. Nevertheless, most other cryptos experienced a bout of volatility as the sector benchmark struggled for traction.
Personally, I would adopt a careful approach. Although BTC’s resilience is encouraging, I’m not liking the overexuberance of this market. For instance, NFL wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. generated headlines when he announced accepting his new salary with Bitcoin. Further, you have behemoth banking institutions that long opposed cryptos that are now scrambling to offer digital-asset-related services.
I’m reminded about what the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett once said: be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Still, if this time is different — dangerous words, I know — you might want to consider these alternative cryptos which are now on discount:
- Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD)
- Shiba Inu (CCC:SHIB-USD)
- OMG Network (CCC:OMG-USD)
- PancakeSwap (CCC:CAKE-USD)
- IoTex (CCC:IOTX-USD)
- Filecoin (CCC:FIL-USD)
- Chainlink (CCC:LINK-USD)
While I’ve generally been pensive about chasing the exuberance in cryptos in recent months, that’s not to say that the consensus among experts is negative. Indeed, many see Bitcoin at $100,000 as a realistic proposition in the first quarter of 2022 or conservatively, sometime around 2023. The point is, do your due diligence before riding this wild market.
Cryptos to Watch: Ethereum (ETH)
Source: Filippo Ronca Cavalcanti / Shutterstock.com
To be upfront, Ethereum is only on discount relative to its all-time high of nearly $4,900. Since mid-November, ETH has gyrated in a frustrated and perhaps somewhat worrying consolidation pattern between a hair under $4,000 to $4,430.
But compared to Bitcoin, ETH has enjoyed the better of the performance metrics. As I write this heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, Ethereum is down 1.5% over the past 24 hours but up 1.6% during the trailing week. In contrast, Bitcoin is down 1.5% and 5.2%, respectively.
Nevertheless, it’s worthwhile for supporters of cryptos to keep track of the ETH price. Specifically, many blockchain advocates are anticipating an event called the flippening, where Ethereum’s market capitalization will surpass that of Bitcoin’s. Some experts suggest that this role reversal could happen in the current market cycle.
To probably no one’s surprise, I’m skeptical. While Ethereum is clearly the more utilitarian of the two, that has not necessarily been the core driver of increased valuations for cryptos. It’s going to be tough for any asset to overcome Bitcoin’s brand dominance.
Still, you never know what will happen with cryptos so it’s worth keeping ETH on your radar.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
You say you’re tired of hearing about meme trade Shiba Inu. Yet internet statistics don’t lie. Time and time again, SHIB dominates other cryptos in terms of sheer interest. At this rate, you could set up your own Shiba Inu blog and have a lucrative side hustle just talking about this blockchain phenomenon.
However, things have not looked very promising for the canine-inspired token. On Oct. 27 of this year, SHIB reached a high of 0.008719 cents. At time of writing, the price per token has dropped to under 0.004 cents. That’s a staggering loss of 54% no matter how you look at it.
Even more problematic from a technical perspective, SHIB continues to print red ink. What the heck is going on?
I believe two basic schools of thought exist. First, early Shiba Inu proponents are waking up to the ludicrousness of the matter and are taking profits. If that’s the case, I can’t fault them there. I’d rather have cash than a bunch of digital decentralized promises.
Second, the fallout could represent a contrarian opportunity. Here, the credibility lies in the underlying community’s rabid support, which is nothing short of extraordinary.
Cryptos to Watch: OMG Network (OMG)
Source: Wit Olszewski / Shutterstock.com
Thanks to the exceptional rally of Bitcoin, several cryptos with a long track record tagged along for the ride. In turn, many of these altcoins printed their own all-time highs, to the obvious delight of their stakeholders. However, not all digital assets were so fortunate. OMG Network is but one example.
In January 2018 — following the rapid rise and fall of Bitcoin — OMG managed to break out of its correlation with BTC and break above the $25 level. However, it turned out to be a brief victory, with the token careening toward the ground. Following two pronounced dead-cat bounces, OMG engaged in a long deflationary cycle, turning the asset into the blockchain’s version of a penny stock.
In the trailing month, OMG got tantalizingly close to the $20 level, briefly passing it on Nov. 4. However, failing to stay above this key psychological level spelled trouble. At time of writing, OMG tokens are trading hands at below $9.
Still, sentiment remains strong with cryptos. Considering that so many folks are looking for discounts in this sector, OMG might be speculation worth considering.
If you’ve been watching business news over the last few weeks, you’ve undoubtedly heard about the metaverse. While people bicker online about the true meaning of the movement, I view it broadly as the next evolution of the internet. That is, rather than users connecting to each other through their computers, it’s now possible to bring the experience closer through advances in virtual and augmented reality.
Well, the blockchain is also undergoing its revolution. No longer are users confined to peer-to-peer transactions as was the case with Bitcoin. Today, proponents are exploring multiple applications of the underlying technology, ranging from smart contracts to decentralized finance (DeFi). One of the most groundbreaking innovations, though, is the automated market maker (AMM).
PancakeSwap represents one of the pioneers of AMM, which allows anyone with an internet connection to participate in the market making process; in other words, provide liquidity for crypto-trading pairs. Basically, PancakeSwap decentralizes investing markets, enabling greater utility and autonomy for digital assets.
However, the bears have come after CAKE, with the token shedding 14% of market value over the trailing week. Still, some might view this as a discounted opportunity on an intriguing concept.
Cryptos to Watch: IoTex (IOTX)
Source: Ivan Babydov / Shutterstock.com
One of the distinct aspects of investing in cryptos is that it’s almost impossible now to run out of ideas. At time of writing, there are over 14,700 coins and tokens floating around in cyberspace monitored by CoinMarketCap, waiting to be discovered. It wasn’t too long ago that I was making a big deal about the availability of 13,000 coins.
For context, a Benzinga analysis revealed that as of August, there were 5,866 companies with U.S.-listed stocks from which investors can choose. Cryptos dominate in terms of total offerings.
However, that’s a double-edged sword, as IoTex stakeholders discovered. According to CoinMarketCap, “IoTeX has built a decentralized platform whose aim is to empower the open economics for machines — an open ecosystem where people and machines can interact with guaranteed trust, free will, and under properly designed economic incentives.”
That sounds wonderful and all, but sentiment appears to be waning. Further, technical pressures suggest that IOTX could fall to 10 cents. Here’s the thing: if it does plummet that low, contrarians will probably scoop up the coins given their grassroots popularity.
Ordinarily, I’ve been skeptical about the overall utility of the latest blockchain projects that promise to leverage the power of decentralization to promote frictionless, trustless transactions across myriad applications. Yes, the blockchain has proven capable of promoting trustless ecosystems but the underlying financial incentive is tied to cryptos.
Until actual currencies trade hands under a decentralized platform, it will be extraordinarily difficult for blockchain projects to climb the credibility barrier. Nevertheless, Filecoin has been one of the few networks that has attracted me with its practical proposition.
As CoinMarketCap explains, “Filecoin aims to store data in a decentralized manner.” Unlike traditional data storage solutions, “Filecoin leverages its decentralized nature to protect the integrity of a data’s location, making it easily retrievable and hard to censor.”
What makes the platform stand out is that anyone can contribute their unused capacity to support the ecosystem. In return, they receive cryptos for their trouble. True, this subjects contributors to extreme volatility for their rewards. At the same time, they can choose to contribute at their own leisure, which makes the whole concept palatable and realistic.
Cryptos to Watch: Chainlink (LINK)
Source: Stanslavs / Shutterstock.com
Although novel solutions using blockchain technology have flourished over the years, many critics pointed out that the mechanisms to catalyze advanced transactions are localized to the blockchain. In other words, it’s wonderful that a smart contract can cut out the middleman between a buyer and a seller. However, if the underlying deal involves an off-blockchain data point to verify execution of the contract, how would that be recognized?
Chainlink is one of the pioneers that have figured out the answer to this perplexing problem. Per CoinMarketCap, it’s “one of the first networks to allow the integration of off-chain data into smart contracts.” This opens up many possibilities regarding end uses. For instance, Chainlink could theoretically provide automatic payments for wagers placed on the outcome of a sports competition. Essentially, LINK takes the training wheels off of cryptos.
However, the market isn’t exactly seeing it that way, with LINK suffering a 11.6% loss over the trailing seven days and down 51% from its all-time high. Still, strong community support along with interest in the underlying technology could see contrarians bolster this token.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in BTC, ETH and LINK. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management and healthcare.
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Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams
Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams
By Eric Kulisch of American Shipper,
Overflow lots set up by large retailers…
Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams
By Eric Kulisch of American Shipper,
Overflow lots set up by large retailers this month as temporary staging areas for imported containers have helped bring down congestion levels at the Port of Savannah, and Georgia officials expect further efficiency gains with this week’s opening of two more port-sponsored pop-up sites.
The Georgia Ports Authority, in partnership with the Norfolk Southern, will start accepting loaded containers on Monday at the freight railroad’s nearby Dillon Yard and later this week will begin routing shipping units to a general aviation airport in Statesboro, located about 60 miles west of Savannah, Chief Operating Officer Ed McCarthy told FreightWaves.
Moving containers to off-port properties is part of the recently announced South Atlantic Supply Chain Relief Program designed to reclaim space at the Garden City Terminal, where container crowding is making it difficult for vessels to unload and for stacking equipment and trucks to maneuver. In October, Savannah handled an all-time record of 504,350 twenty-foot equivalent units for a single month, an increase of 8.7% over October 2020. The volume surpassed the GPA’s previous record of 498,000 TEUs set in March.
Port officials began testing the Dillon Yard and Statesboro locations last week after renting top loaders for stacking and truck transfers, installing computer lines in order to track containers entering the gate with radio frequency identification, and laying extra pavement at the rail facility, McCarthy said.
Four or five more pop-up container facilities are scheduled to open around Georgia by mid-December and the port authority is talking with freight railroad CSX about an auxiliary storage site in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, the COO said in an interview.
The sites are mini-versions of inland ports where containers are brought to strategically located sites by intermodal rail, shortening the distance trucks have to travel to collect imports or drop off exports and reducing traffic in and around busy seaports. The concept essentially brings the seaport closer to manufacturing, agriculture and population centers.
The GPA currently operates a large inland intermodal rail terminal in Murray County, Georgia, as well as an inland dry bulk facility. Construction on a second inland rail link for containerized cargo in northeast Georgia is scheduled to begin in April and be completed by mid- to late 2024, spokesman Robert Morris said. South Carolina also operates two inland ports, Virginia has one in the northwestern part of the state and the Port of Long Beach in California recently launched an effort to quickly flow cargo to Utah for distribution by converting truck traffic to rail.
Several users of the Port of Savannah this month have opened pop-up yards of their own where they can directly flow import containers to avoid waiting for longshoremen to sort through shipping units for their cargo and then retrieve them when space opens at one of their distribution centers. Each of the private spillover yards can accommodate 2,000 to 3,000 containers.
“We’re starting to see some of our customer base do their own pop-ups. They’re contracting with some folks who have capabilities in the Savannah region and … taking their long-term destiny in their own hands,” McCarthy said in an interview.
The Rocky Mount intermodal facility being discussed with CSX will probably be used as an alternative storage location for empty containers. It could be running by early December, the COO said. Whether containers are diverted from other locations or whether empties are loaded up in Savannah and sent there remains to be determined.
The Biden administration, which is focused on alleviating a nationwide supply chain crisis that is creating product shortages and contributing to inflation, helped fund the GPA’s emergency storage yards by reallocating $8 million in federal funds. Additional flexibility recently granted by the Department of Transportation allows port authorities to redirect cost savings from previous projects funded by port infrastructure grants toward mitigating truck, rail and terminal delays that are preventing the swift evacuation of containers from ports.
White House port envoy John Porcari, the liaison between industry and the White House Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, said the government is looking to create more inland ports.
“We’re encouraging other ports to do the same [thing as Savannah.] I think you’ll see a generation of projects in the short term around the country that will help maximize the existing on-dock capacity through interior pop-up sites,” Porcari said on Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” podcast last week.
“The fundamental issue is that the docks themselves are such valuable pieces of real estate that you don’t want the containers dwelling there a second longer than you have to. You want to get them to the interior or back on ships to their target markets overseas,” he said.
Improvements in rail handling, a dip in import volumes in line with seasonal patterns and the customer pop-up yards have combined to improve cargo flow and reduce the number of ships waiting for a berth at the Port of Savannah, McCarthy said.
The port authority released an operations update last week showing the average dwell time for a container moving by rail after vessel unloading is two days, and that the average resting time within the terminal for import and export containers is about eight days, down from 11 and 10 days, respectively. The backlog of empty containers remains a problem, with boxes lingering an average of 17.8 days.
The improved performance is helping personnel work vessels faster and reduce Savannah’s cargo backlog. The number of ships at anchor in the Atlantic Ocean declined to 15 as of Monday morning from 22 two weeks ago, Morris said. There were 24 container vessels at anchor in mid-October. Total containers on the terminal also declined 13% and are down 16% from the peak of 85,000, according to the update.
McCarthy said there are about 225,000 TEUs currently on the water, a 10% to 12% reduction from early November that indicates “we are over the hump of the peak season.”
Last week, ocean carrier CMA CGM said its Liberty Bridge service from northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast would temporarily skip Savannah due to the congestion. According to the revised schedule, seven stops between late December and early February will be omitted. Shippers can send Savannah cargo to the Port of Charleston, South Carolina, until then, it said.
The GPA also noted that providers have increased the supply of chassis, the wheeled frames on which containers rest when pulled by truck, and are increasingly able to repair more chassis to help meet demand for cargo deliveries.
The Port of Savannah increased its near-dock rail capacity by 30% with the commissioning two weeks ago of a second set of nine tracks at the Mason Mega Rail Terminal. The port moved 550,000 containers by rail last year and now has more than 2 million TEUs of capacity with an eye toward future growth. The ability to discharge cargo from a vessel and ship it out by train in less than two days is best in class for the U.S., McCarthy noted.
A huge new container yard will come online in phases starting in December and culminate with about 820,000 TEUs of additional capacity by March. The project includes rubber-tired gantry cranes for sorting, stacking and transferring containers.
Construction of another berth is underway and scheduled to be complete in 2023.
Meanwhile, the federal dredging project to deepen the Savannah River to 47 feet (54 feet at high tide) is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2022. It has already allowed vessels with deeper drafts to enter the port, McCarthy said. The deepening translates to about 200 extra loaded containers per foot and a total of 1,000 per vessel when the project is finished.
If Not ‘Flow’, Then Has ‘Stock’ ‘Rigged’ The Flattening Curve In QE’s Favor?
Flatter. The yield curve continues to shrink in the important middle calendar spaces where growth and inflation expectations run the place. Treasuries…
Flatter. The yield curve continues to shrink in the important middle calendar spaces where growth and inflation expectations run the place. Treasuries have been doing this since around March, a peculiar (given monolithic mainstream reporting otherwise) eight-month reign of growing pessimism rather than inflationary confidence.
Did the market foresee omicron more than half a year ago?
No. That’s not really what this has been all about. As noted yesterday, the unnervingly steady flattening (deflation potential) in the curve wasn’t so specific – and it needn’t have been. What the “bond market” has been trading is this growing suspicion that, given how the actual situation was never better than weak and artificial, the chances of something, anything going wrong were rising.
If not delta or omicron, then almost certainly another even modest shock.
And whatever the something might end up being, it would be enough to upend the set of global circumstances. Like 2018, globally synchronized growth didn’t unexpectedly transform into a globally synchronized downturn and pre-COVID recession, the transition was made plain and available to everyone in real-time.
I can’t believe this needs to be pointed out, but, no, the Fed does *not* rig the bond market and it only takes about 5 seconds to prove this.
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) November 18, 2021
Yet, to this day there are those who adamantly oppose this. Through the monumental power of the “central bank’s” balance sheet and all the Treasury (and other) assets invited onto it, the might of QE, the yield curve has been tainted to the point of trash, they say. After all, central bankers have repeatedly and plainly stated how they want interest rates to be low.
Lo and behold, low they are.
Like so many other monetary fairy tales, it sounds plausible upon first hearing the scheme. We’ve already thoroughly debunked part of this “rigging” of the bond market; I say “part” because there is another means – in theory – for where or how the Fed’s power might remain unchallenged.
What we detailed a couple weeks ago was what is called the “flow” argument. This other is the “stock” version.
The case for flow rested upon the notion of central banks constantly “being in the market” buying up Treasuries (or other), thereby causing their price to rise concurrent to the flow of central bank purchases.
Sounds nice in theory; not a single bit of evidence from practice:
What about the so-called stock effect? If QE doesn’t influence bond prices as purchases happen, and it sure doesn’t, then perhaps there is some cumulative impact from all the purchasing done from beginning to end; fewer bonds overall for the market to have had to absorb.
To try to make the case on this side of the QE argument, you’ll often see this chart employed:
On the surface, it does seem as if the more bonds central banks buy, the more “valuable” those bonds have become. But is this explanatory, or is it committing the first sin of statistics?
Correlation does not imply causation.
In fact, during a period of tight money we would expect that the prices of safe and liquid instruments would rise at nearly the same time central banks respond in their predictable way to the same tight money condition. In a world of exogenous money, like the eurodollar system, the one does not cause the other, rather both are reactions to the same thing – the exogenous money.
The fact that central banks reply in the same way as the market to tight money/deflation by buying bonds is merely the byproduct of having only one tangible tool in the kit: bank reserves.
When real, effective money (exogenous eurodollar) tightens, quite naturally there will be rising, heavy private demand for safe, liquid instruments like Treasuries and global sovereign bonds first. Central banks (eventually) then react to the deflationary symptoms of that tight money by employing their one tool, bank reserves, which requires the purchase of these same assets in order to create them.
The bond buying merely an accidental fluke, an uninteresting artifact of officials being incompetent. Thus, bond prices rise because of market action, yields drop, and then officials pile on while the media claims – absent every bit of evidence – it must be the piling on which “tainted” the bond market’s already deflationary signal.
Even Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher (FISHER!, for god’s sake) understood at its most basic level what the Fed was doing as it wasn’t money printing or even the holding down of bond yields:
MR. FISHER. In summary, I want to mention that, as I said earlier, most of these variations that have been suggested are very un-Bagehot-like. And what I mean by that is, twisting [or QE and yield caps] entails purchasing assets that investors are fleeing toward, not assets that they are fleeing from. [emphasis added]
Correlation, not causation.
As I have often written, the Fed’s balance sheet is actually the same things, the same sort of indication as falling yields (yes, you read that right), both adding up to negative, deflationary connotations. When the central bank’s balance sheet goes up, not only is this not the cause of rising bond prices, the QE’s, again, are a reaction to the same problem which further corroborates why and how bond yields have already sunk.
If that wasn’t enough debunking (and I haven’t even touched on the deflationary effects of QE in terms of its effects on collateral availability), the final bucket of nails in the “stock” idea gets hammered home repeatedly by what my brashly astute co-host Emil Kalinowski lustily points out time and again, this being the whole rest of the “bond market” – things like eurodollar futures, swap spreads, or just the dollar’s exchange value – which is neither stock-ed nor flow-ed by central bank purchases one way or another.
In other words, it’s not just Treasury yields or sovereign bonds which very strongly display rising deflationary potential during these specific times, with the Fed’s balance sheet joining in, it is an entire array of dependable and tested financial indicators which uniformly corroborate the same notion from every important monetary, financial, and economic angle.
Like flow, stock is merely an attempt to work around what is more than an inconvenience to those wishing to (repeatedly) sell you an inflationary story without evidence. A flattening yield curve – indeed this flattening yield curve happening as it has during the highest CPIs in decades – is trying to tell you something important, the same undiluted message as has been repeatedly and properly sent time and time again.
The problem is simply QE, meaning how these messages are interpreted and perceived (distorted and twisted). I mean that in a very different way than with what this article began. Central bank bond purchases or LSAP’s (whatever anyone calls them) have been the most tested, empirically-established policy programs in perhaps economic history. It’s just that no one knows, because it is in “central banks’” best interest for you not to know, what all those tests have uniformly showed.
Flow? No. Stock. Nah. None of it does what everyone says it does. It sure doesn’t “rig” the bond market in any way.
While a flat curve may not be able to tell you what will sour the situation, it does give you a reasonable, reliable approximation for how something is highly likely to at some not-distant time.
Cannabis analytics startup Headset, led by Leafly founders, raises more cash
The news: Cannabis analytics company Headset on Tuesday announced that it raised $8.6 million in funding. That includes $3 million of venture capital from…
The news: Cannabis analytics company Headset on Tuesday announced that it raised $8.6 million in funding. That includes $3 million of venture capital from a round led by Althea, as well as the conversion of $5.6 million of bridge notes issued in August 2020 and this past April.
The Seattle-based company reports having more than 300 customers and 50 employees.
Headset has raised about $23 million, according to GeekWire reporting.
The tech: Headset provides data analytics for the cannabis industry on growers and product manufacturers; retail sales; food, health and beauty products; financial services; and hardware.
The company gathers information on market trends, top selling cannabis strains, market projections for states where recreational marijuana is newly legalized, ruminations on the impacts of inflation, and favored product brands in different regions.
The new funding will help Headset expand its analysis into new legal markets and launch additional services.
The founders: Headset was founded in 2015 by CEO Cy Scott, Chief Design Officer Brian Wansolich and CTO Scott Vickers, who all previously co-founded Leafly, an online cannabis marketplace that is going public via a SPAC merger.
The tailwinds: While Washington and Colorado were the first states to legalize recreational marijuana use back in 2012, an additional 16 states plus Washington, D.C. have followed suit. More than a dozen others have approved cannabis for medical use.
When the pandemic forced businesses to close in order slow COVID-19’s spread, marijuana dispensaries in many states were deemed “essential” and allowed to remain open. The New York Times called it “official recognition that for some Americans, cannabis is as necessary as milk and bread.”
The sector: Competition in the cannabis analytics space include BDSA, which according to PitchBook has raised $16.2 million, and Cannabis Big Data. Both are based in Colorado.
There are big dollars flowing into online sales of cannabis. Oregon’s Dutchie has raised more than $600 million while Leafly is valued at nearly $400 million.
There is also continued momentum in delivery. Uber entered the cannabis market just last week, announcing plans to launch a delivery service in Ontario.
The investors: In addition to the private equity investment firm Althea, the VC round included two investors focused on the cannabis sector: Poseidon Investment Management and WGD Capital.
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