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AUD Strong After Unveiling of A$1.2 Billion Stimulus Package

The Australian dollar was strong today, reversing yesterday’s losses and gaining against all of its most-traded rivals. With the lack of any major macroeconomic releases, the possible reason for the currency’s strength was the unveiling of a stimulus…

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The Australian dollar was strong today, reversing yesterday’s losses and gaining against all of its most-traded rivals. With the lack of any major macroeconomic releases, the possible reason for the currency’s strength was the unveiling of a stimulus package for Australia’s tourism industry.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled a $1.2 stimulus package aimed to support the tourism industry. The aid includes 800,000 half-priced plane tickets to tourism-dependent regions, which should encourage more travel, as well as loans and subsidies to businesses. With the tourism industry being perhaps the hardest-hit one by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting travel restrictions, it makes sense for the government to support the sector. That is especially true because tourism is an important part of the Australian economy, representing about 3.0% of the country’s gross domestic product.

As for macro releases, the only report that came out on Thursday was the Inflation Expectations released by the Melbourne Institute. It showed that the indicator rose to 4.1% in March from 3.7% in February.

There are no economic reports in Australia scheduled for tomorrow. This week was light in terms of macro releases, and the next one will not be much different. Yet at least one important report will come out next Thursday — employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian employment has been showing significant growth since October, though the pace of growth seems to be slowing.

AUD/USD rose from 0.7733 to 0.7767 as of 7:26 GMT today. EUR/AUD fell from 1.5417 to 1.5368. AUD/JPY climbed from 83.82 to 84.40.


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Economics

China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Across The Country

China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Across The Country

One week ago we discussed why the "worst case" scenario for China’s…

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China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Across The Country

One week ago we discussed why the "worst case" scenario for China's property crisis is gradually emerging; to this we can now add that China's worst case energy crisis scenario is also about to be unleashed as cold weather swept into much of the country and power plants scrambled to stock up on coal, sending prices of the fuel to record highs.

Electricity demand to heat homes and offices is expected to soar this week as strong cold winds move down from northern China, according to Reuters with forecasters predicting average temperatures in some central and eastern regions could fall by as much as 16 degrees Celsius in the next 2-3 days.

Shortages of coal, high fuel prices and booming post-pandemic industrial demand have sparked widespread power shortages in the world's second-largest economy. Rationing has already been in place in at least 17 of mainland China's more than 30 regions since September, forcing some factories to suspend production and further disrupting already broken supply chains.

On Friday, the most-active January Zhengzhou thermal coal futures closed at a record high of 2,226 per tonne early. The contract has risen almost 200% year to date.

China's three northeastern provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning - also among the worst hit by the power shortages last month - as well as several regions in northern China including Inner Mongolia and Gansu have started winter heating, which is mainly fuelled by coal, to cope with the colder-than-normal weather.

Meanwhile, even though Beijing has taken a slew of measures to contain coal price rises including raising domestic coal output and cutting power to power-hungry industries and some factories during periods of peak demand, so far all measures have failed with coal surging by 40% in just the past three days. Beijing has also repeatedly assured users that energy supplies will be secured for the winter heating season, and went so far as to order energy firms to "secure supplies at all costs." Well, the energy firms heard it, because on that day, thermal coal closed at 1,436 yuan. Two weeks later it is some 800 yuan higher.

Unfortunately for Beijing, the power shortages are expected to continue into early next year, with analysts and traders forecasting a 12% drop in industrial power consumption in the fourth quarter as coal supplies fall short and local governments give priority to residential users.

Earlier this week, we reported that China undertook its boldest step in a decades-long power sector reform when it allowed coal-fired power prices to fluctuate by up to 20% from base levels from Oct. 15, enabling power plants to pass on more of the high costs of generation to commercial and industrial end-users. read more

Steel, aluminium, cement and chemical producers are expected to face higher and more volatile power costs under the new policy, pressuring profit margins.

Meanwhile, the latest Chinese "data" on Thursday showed factory-gate inflation in September hit a record high; but since thermal coal is the one commodity that correlates the closest to PPI, absent a sharp drop in coal prices in the next few weeks, expect the next PPI print to be far higher. Meanwhile as the power crisis leads to further shutdowns in domestic production, some banks - such as Nomura - have gone so far to predict that China's GDP is set to shrink in coming quarters.

China, which laughably aims to be "carbon neutral" by 2060 even as its president announced he will skip the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, has been "trying" to reduce its reliance on polluting coal power in favor of cleaner wind, solar and hydro. But coal remains the source for some 70% of China's electricity needs.

Of course, China is not the only nation struggling with power supplies, which has led to fuel shortages and blackouts in many European countries. and threatens to send US heating bills up as much as 50% this winter. he crisis has highlighted the difficulty in cutting the global economy's dependency on fossil fuels as world leaders seek to revive efforts to tackle climate change at talks next month in Glasgow.

China will strive to achieve carbon peaks by 2030, Vice Premier Han Zheng said in a video message at the Russian Energy Week International Forum, according to state-run news agency Xinhua late on Thursday. He also said that China and Russia are important forces leading the energy transition and they should cooperate and ensure smooth progress of major oil and gas pipeline and nuclear power projects.

Translation: Russia better save that nat gas and not ship it to Europe as China will soon be needed even BCF Russia an provide. As for China

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 22:50
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Economics

Slowing Down, Yes, But To What?

A couple of Economists have caused some noise by reviewing consumer confidence estimates in the United States, associating big declines in them with imminent…

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A couple of Economists have caused some noise by reviewing consumer confidence estimates in the United States, associating big declines in them with imminent recession, and then pointing out such substantial drops in both of the major consumer sentiment surveys just recently. If valid, their correlations would seem to suggest a US contraction.

We’re meant to take these seriously for one of those academics, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth, had once “set interest rates at the BOE during the 2008 financial crisis.” Hardly a good place to start winning converts.

He and his co-author Alex Bryson of UCL are pretty adamant:

The economic situation in 2021 is exceptional, however, since unprecedented direct government intervention in the labor market through furlough-type arrangements has enabled employment rates to recover quickly from the huge downturn in 2020. However, downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now.

The Conference Board’s more optimistic measure has indeed become far less lofty very quickly. And while the University of Michigan’s sentiment index never rebounded near as much, it has likewise fallen backward when it should be surging in recovery. The latter’s newly released preliminary assessment for October 2021, increasingly free from delta COVID’s influences on governments, wasn’t good; slightly lower after a slight gain in September.

Scraping along the bottom:



Whether this means recession or not may be beside the point. What is the point is how even academic Economists can’t help but notice how the US and global Economy is not in any shape like what’s been said all year and predicted for the rest. I seem to recall the term “red hot” being thrown around by unassailable luminaries as if a certainty.

The economy certainly had accelerated earlier but not for economic reasons; the non-economic interference of global fiscal policies, especially those of the US federal government.

Typically, academics see such intervention as thoroughly positive not just in the short run more so believing these programs dependably contribute much to the intermediate and longer-term trajectory – even as experience consistently shows they never do.

Since April or May, a global slowdown at first denied has slowly become practically undeniable as more and more the weak data comes back and sticks around. This is also true of “inflation”, the other side of transitory, the downslide of the camel humps in whichever consumer, producer, or now trade price index.



The third of the BLS’s series after first the CPI then next PPI is import prices, along with export prices. Even the latter, export prices, which have been more impressive than the far less impressive import index (though it might seem from mainstream commentary it would be the other way around), these indices are more clearly bending.

Toward what? Recession?

Not necessarily. Given consumer confidence as well as more substantial indications like real yields (TIPS; see: below), it may be a more reasonable question to ask whether or not the global economy ever actually got out of the last one.

If that’s really the case, then for all Uncle Sam’s efforts all it did was fool people into believing inflation and recovery (which many, maybe the vast majority still believe) when in fact those weren’t really happening. That technically makes this current weak spot at least a slowdown, but more appropriate one toward an economy merely reverting to its actual economic state increasingly unbound by non-economic interventions.



The growing response to the downshift is somewhat interesting; “everyone” is beginning to sense and admit the weakness, but they won’t let go of the inflation. Therefore, more and more the term stagflation is being thrown around regardless of the recession question – because people have been led to believe inflation is something it is not.

As I noted recently, however, if this really is serious and enduring weakness, a reversion back to the non-recovery state, the type of “flation” has already been decided.

The Economist considers this as higher potential for “stagflation”, a term popularized during and about the Great Inflation of the 1970’s. It also made a comeback around 2010 and 2011 – not that anyone remembers now. Quite simply, without the money for inflation what’s left is just the stagnation; which very succinctly and accurately describes the decade which followed 2010 and 2011.

Is this time really different? So far, the stagnation is proceeding almost as if right on schedule; the non-central bank schedule.

No need to call it stag-deflation because that’s just redundant. In other words, as the renewal of stagnation grows larger on the horizon, settling the label’s other half is already being taken care of.

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Economics

China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Cross The Country

China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Cross The Country

One week ago we discussed why the "worst case" scenario for China’s…

Share this article:

China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Cross The Country

One week ago we discussed why the "worst case" scenario for China's property crisis is gradually emerging; to this we can now add that China's worst case energy crisis scenario is also about to be unleashed as cold weather swept into much of the country and power plants scrambled to stock up on coal, sending prices of the fuel to record highs.

Electricity demand to heat homes and offices is expected to soar this week as strong cold winds move down from northern China, according to Reuters with forecasters predicting average temperatures in some central and eastern regions could fall by as much as 16 degrees Celsius in the next 2-3 days.

Shortages of coal, high fuel prices and booming post-pandemic industrial demand have sparked widespread power shortages in the world's second-largest economy. Rationing has already been in place in at least 17 of mainland China's more than 30 regions since September, forcing some factories to suspend production and further disrupting already broken supply chains.

On Friday, the most-active January Zhengzhou thermal coal futures closed at a record high of 2,226 per tonne early. The contract has risen almost 200% year to date.

China's three northeastern provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning - also among the worst hit by the power shortages last month - as well as several regions in northern China including Inner Mongolia and Gansu have started winter heating, which is mainly fuelled by coal, to cope with the colder-than-normal weather.

Meanwhile, even though Beijing has taken a slew of measures to contain coal price rises including raising domestic coal output and cutting power to power-hungry industries and some factories during periods of peak demand, so far all measures have failed with coal surging by 40% in just the past three days. Beijing has also repeatedly assured users that energy supplies will be secured for the winter heating season, and went so far as to order energy firms to "secure supplies at all costs." Well, the energy firms heard it, because on that day, thermal coal closed at 1,436 yuan. Two weeks later it is some 800 yuan higher.

Unfortunately for Beijing, the power shortages are expected to continue into early next year, with analysts and traders forecasting a 12% drop in industrial power consumption in the fourth quarter as coal supplies fall short and local governments give priority to residential users.

Earlier this week, we reported that China undertook its boldest step in a decades-long power sector reform when it allowed coal-fired power prices to fluctuate by up to 20% from base levels from Oct. 15, enabling power plants to pass on more of the high costs of generation to commercial and industrial end-users. read more

Steel, aluminium, cement and chemical producers are expected to face higher and more volatile power costs under the new policy, pressuring profit margins.

Meanwhile, the latest Chinese "data" on Thursday showed factory-gate inflation in September hit a record high; but since thermal coal is the one commodity that correlates the closest to PPI, absent a sharp drop in coal prices in the next few weeks, expect the next PPI print to be far higher. Meanwhile as the power crisis leads to further shutdowns in domestic production, some banks - such as Nomura - have gone so far to predict that China's GDP is set to shrink in coming quarters.

China, which laughably aims to be "carbon neutral" by 2060 even as its president announced he will skip the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, has been "trying" to reduce its reliance on polluting coal power in favor of cleaner wind, solar and hydro. But coal remains the source for some 70% of China's electricity needs.

Of course, China is not the only nation struggling with power supplies, which has led to fuel shortages and blackouts in many European countries. and threatens to send US heating bills up as much as 50% this winter. he crisis has highlighted the difficulty in cutting the global economy's dependency on fossil fuels as world leaders seek to revive efforts to tackle climate change at talks next month in Glasgow.

China will strive to achieve carbon peaks by 2030, Vice Premier Han Zheng said in a video message at the Russian Energy Week International Forum, according to state-run news agency Xinhua late on Thursday. He also said that China and Russia are important forces leading the energy transition and they should cooperate and ensure smooth progress of major oil and gas pipeline and nuclear power projects.

Translation: Russia better save that nat gas and not ship it to Europe as China will soon be needed even BCF Russia an provide. As for China

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 22:50
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