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Canadian dollar yawns after solid job numbers

There was plenty of activity on Friday, as Canada and the US released key employment data. However, both releases were non-movers, as the Canadian dollar…

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This article was originally published by Market Pulse

There was plenty of activity on Friday, as Canada and the US released key employment data. However, both releases were non-movers, as the Canadian dollar was unchanged on Friday.

US, Canada numbers show job growth

In the US, October nonfarm employment change was stronger than expected, with a gain of 535 thousand. This beat the consensus of 455 thousand. Even more impressive, the September reading was revised upwards from 194 thousand to 312 thousand, pointing to a surge in job growth. The unemployment rate dropped and wage growth rose. This all made for an excellent day at the office, but the fly in the ointment was the Participation Rate, which remained at 61.6%, shy of the forecast of 68.6%. Federal member Esther George said after the FOMC meeting that the Fed would be keeping a close look at whether workers were re-entering the labour market.

The strong job numbers did not translate into gains for the US dollar, but equities continue to rise, as the financial markets have bought into the Fed Chair’s Powell of “taper yes, rate hike no”.

In Canada, the economy created 31,000 jobs in October, shy of the estimate of 41 thousand. The economy continues to recover, and job creation is returning to more normal levels – in the two years prior to Covid, Canada produced about 23 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate continues to drop, falling from 6.9% to 6.7%. Back in May, unemployment was at 8.2%, a strong indication that the labor market is healing from the Covid pandemic. Still, unemployment is about 1% higher than prior to Covid, and the Bank of Canada will not be in any hurry to raise interest rates until the economy is on a stronger footing.

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 USD/CAD Technical

  • There is support at 1.2379. Below, there is support at 1.2302, protecting the 1.23 level
  • There is resistance at 1.2507, followed by 1.2558

 

 

 





Author: Kenny Fisher

Economics

Hillary: “Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them”

Hillary: "Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them"

Via 21stCenturyWire.com,

This might be the longest-ever Thanksgiving…

Hillary: “Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them”

Via 21stCenturyWire.com,

This might be the longest-ever Thanksgiving weekend for Joe Biden. While he’s been enjoying a warm blanket and a hot cup of Ovaltine with his family in Nantucket, the President’s poll numbers have been in virtual free-fall. It seems that the nation is fast losing confidence in his ability to handle important issues like the economy, the border, foreign policy and crime running wild on America’s streets. In short, the majority of Americans, both Democrat and Republican, do not believe Joe is capable of fulfilling his duties as the chief executive of the world’s premier superpower.

At present, Biden’s average job approval rating stands at around 40%, a steep drop from the 55% percent average approval rating he enjoyed last May.

No one really knows just how low Joe will go.

Still, this hasn’t stopped his ardent allies from rushing to his defense, and blaming his flagging numbers on social media trolls (see deplorables).

Carlos Garcia from The Blaze writes…

Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton tried to explain away President Joe Biden’s poor polling by accusing Americans of not appreciating what Biden has done for them, and blamed social media.

Clinton made the comments while a guest on Rachel Maddow’s MSNBC show Tuesday evening.

“You know, democracy is messy. You know, a lot of people got, oh I think, kind of frustrated looking at the messy process of legislation,” said Clinton.

“And they didn’t really appreciate that, within a year, the Biden administration has passed two major pieces of legislation through both the House and the Senate, they passed another major piece through the House that will be soon be in the Senate,” she continued.

“By any measure those are extraordinary accomplishments and they really will help many millions of Americans with healthcare and prescription drug prices, as well as climate change and so much else,” said Clinton.

“But because of the way we are getting our information today,” she concluded, “and because of the lack of gatekeepers and people who have a historic perspective who can help us understand what we are seeing, there is a real vulnerability in the electorate to the kind of demagoguery and disinformation that, unfortunately, the other side is really good at exploiting.”

Both Maddow and Clinton accused Republicans of undermining the results of fair elections and calling for violence as a political solution in the interview.

Biden’s poll numbers have suffered greatly after a cascade of damaging incidents plaguing his administration. Among the worst were the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, the painful cost of high inflation, and the crisis of illegal immigration at the border.

One poll from October found that only 38% of Americans thought Biden deserved a positive job rating.

Watch Hillary’s clip here: 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 11/28/2021 – 17:30

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Silver price under pressure despite the risk-off sentiment

Silver price extended the week’s losses in Friday’s session despite the risk-off market sentiment. In the coming week, focus will be on Fed policymakers’…

Silver price extended the week’s losses in Friday’s session despite the risk-off market sentiment. In the coming week, focus will be on Fed policymakers’ remarks and data related to its industrial and precious metal status.

Market mood

The fear & greed index shifted from a greed level of 64 to the fear end of the spectrum. On Friday, the index’s reading was at 31. Both the market volatility and safe-haven demand are exhibiting extreme fear. Usually, risk aversion boosts precious metals based on their safe-haven status.

However, a strengthening US dollar is exerting pressure on silver price. Concerns over the new wave of COVID-19, coupled with positive economic data from the US, boosted the dollar index to its highest level since July 2020. Besides, slowed growth of the Chinese economy has raised concerns over silver’s industrial demand.

In the new week, silver price will be reacting to manufacturing PMI from China and other economies. Besides, investors will be keen on Jerome Powell’s testimony as well as speeches from various Fed policymakers. The speeches come a few days after Fed meeting minutes that exuded a hawkish tone. The nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for Friday will further influence the metal’s price movements.

Silver price technical outlook

Silver price has been under pressure over the past week. The week’s losses defined a trend reversal after the precious metal hit a four-month high in the previous week. Since Monday, it has dropped by about 6.89%.

The precious metal ended the week at 23.17; down by 1.83%. On a four-hour chart, it is trading below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. Besides, with an RSI of 26, it is in the overbought territory.

In the coming week, I expect silver price to remain under pressure amid the strengthening US dollar. However, it may begin the week on a corrective rebound as it finds support along the psychological level of 23.00.

It may bounce back to find resistance along the 25-day EMA at 23.72. Subsequently, it may trade within the formed horizontal channel with 23.16 and 23.72 as the lower and upper borders respectively. Above the aforementioned resistance level, the bulls will be eyeing the 50-day EMA at 24.03. On the flip side, a move below Friday’s low of 22.94 will likely place the support zone at 22.35.

silver price
silver price

The post Silver price under pressure despite the risk-off sentiment appeared first on Invezz.





Author: Faith Maina

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Economics

New Zealand cash rates – the canary in the coal mine?

My son, Angus, ventured into the Sydney residential market at the beginning of the year acquiring a small apartment, with what I considered to be an enormous…

My son, Angus, ventured into the Sydney residential market at the beginning of the year acquiring a small apartment, with what I considered to be an enormous loan from one of the Big Four. At the time the fixed four-year home loan rate was around 1.95 per cent per annum. Today, the advertised rate has jumped 1.0 per cent per annum to around 2.95 per cent. This reflects the Australian four-year Government Bond yield moving up from 0.20 per cent at the beginning of 2021 to the current 1.32 per cent.

The likely response to this change from property buyers today is that a much higher proportion of their mortgage will be attributed to a variable home loan. This rate typically reflects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate, and at 0.10 per cent per annum it is currently at a record low, and well below the “emergency low” of 3.0 per cent per annum implemented during the Global Financial Crisis (6 months to September 2009).

Across the ditch, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised its official cash rate for the second time in two months by 0.25 per cent to 0.75 per cent per annum to counter growing inflation, which hit 4.9 per cent in the September 2021 quarter, and is expected increase to 5.7 percent in the March 2022 quarter.

RBA vs RBNZ cash rate

Markets are currently pricing in five more 0.25 per cent increases by the RBNZ over the next twelve months to a targeted 2.0 per cent per annum. Will New Zealand be seen as a canary of the coal mine moment given inflation has become a global problem? Only time will tell, however if cash rates happen to jump by 1.5 per cent and this filters through into the rate for variable home loans. The tailwinds currently being enjoyed by asset owners (with debt) – close to nil interest rates – could easily become headwinds.

The US inflation figure for October 2021 hit 6.2 per cent, a 30 year high.  Selected CPI subcategories saw the following 12 month changes: Beef +24 per cent, gasoline +51 per cent, natural gas +28 per cent and used cars and trucks +26 per cent. The UK was not far behind, with an inflation rate of 4.2 per cent for October.

ds-us-inflation-2021-2

Global supply chain bottlenecks and shifting consumer demand from services to goods could well be transitory, but as the Founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, warns, “raging inflation” is eroding people’s wealth today – particularly those who have their money in cash.




Author: David Buckland

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