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Current Mortgage Rates Tick Higher

The average interest rate charged on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 3.11% this week.

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This article was originally published by Money

The average interest rate charged on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 3.11% this week, a modest increase of 0.01 percentage points from last week.

It’s the third week in a row that Freddie Mac’s benchmark rate has stayed above 3%. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage also rose slightly to 2.49%. While the rate for a 15-year mortgage moved down to 2.39%.

Mortgage interest rates for the week ending December 2, 2021

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage Rate Trends
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Mortgage rates were mixed this week, with the 30-year and 5/1 ARM rates increasing and 15-year rate edging lower:

  • The current rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.11% with 0.6 points paid, moving up by 0.01 percentage points week-over-week. The average rate at this same time last year was 2.71%.
  • The current rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 2.39% with 0.6 points paid, decreasing by 0.03 percentage points from the previous week. Last year the average rate was 2.26%.
  • The current rate on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage is 2.49% with 0.3 points paid, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous week. The average rate was 2.86% last year.

“Mortgage rates continue to remain stable notwithstanding volatility in the financial markets,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist in a statement. “The consistency of rates in the face of changes in the economy is primarily due to the evolution of the pandemic, which lingers and continues to pose uncertainty. This low mortgage rate environment offers favorable conditions for refinancing.”

Today’s mortgage rates and your monthly payment

The rate on your mortgage can make a big difference in how much home you can afford and the size of your monthly payments.

If you bought a $250,000 home and made a 20% down payment — $50,000 — you would end up with a starting loan balance of $200,000. On a $200,000 home loan with a fixed rate for 30 years:

  • At 3% interest rate = $843 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
  • At 4% interest rate = $955 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
  • At 6% interest rate = $1,199 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)
  • At 8% interest rate = $1,468 in monthly payments (not including taxes, insurance, or HOA fees)

You can experiment with a mortgage calculator to find out how much a lower rate or other changes could impact what you pay.

Other factors that determine how much you’ll pay each month include:

Loan Term:

Choosing a 15-year mortgage instead of a 30-year mortgage will increase monthly mortgage payments but reduce the amount of interest paid throughout the life of the loan.

Fixed vs. ARM:

The mortgage rates on adjustable-rate mortgages reset regularly (after an introductory period) and monthly payments change with it. With a fixed-rate loan payments remain the same throughout the life of the loan.

Taxes, HOA Fees, Insurance:

Homeowners insurance premiums, property taxes and homeowners association fees are often bundled into your monthly mortgage payment. Check with your real estate agent to get an estimate of these costs.

Mortgage Insurance:

Mortgage insurance costs up to 1% of your home loan’s value per year. Borrowers with conventional loans can avoid private mortgage insurance by making a 20% down payment or reaching 20% home equity. FHA borrowers pay a mortgage insurance premium throughout the life of the loan.

Closing Costs:

Some buyers finance their new home’s closing costs into the loan, which adds to the debt and increases monthly payments. Closing costs generally run between 2% and 5% and the sale prices.

The latest information on current mortgage rates

Will current mortgage rates last?

Mortgage rates saw little movement this week as fears that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus could lead to another pause in the economic recovery. Increasing inflationary pressure caused by supply chain problems is also causing some uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the central bank is considering speeding up its tapering of bond purchases as a means of slowing the increase in prices.

As the year draws closer to its end, expect mortgage rates to remain within a tight range of around 3% unless some major economic news forces rates to move.

On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note opened at 1.421%, down from Tuesday’s close of 1.434%. There tends to be a spread of about 1.8 percentage points between the 10-year Treasury and average mortgage rates. Yields have been trending lower since the Thanksgiving holiday.

How are mortgage rates impacting home sales?

The overall number of mortgage applications was down for the week ending November 26, led by a large drop in refinancing. Total applications were decreased by 7.2% week-over-week after being adjusted for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

  • The number of purchase applications increased last week by 5%, marking the fourth straight week of increases. Compared to the same week last year, however, applications were 8% lower.
  • Refinance applications, on the other hand, were 15% lower than the previous week and 41% lower year-over-year. Refinance applications now make up about 59% of all mortgage activity, down from 63% last week.

“As home-price appreciation continues at a double-digit pace, buyers of newer, pricier homes continue to dominate purchase activity, while the share of first-time buyer activity remains depressed,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

Current Mortgage Rates Guide

What is a good interest rate on a mortgage?

Today’s mortgage rates are near historic lows. Freddie Mac’s average rates show what a borrower with a 20% down payment and a strong credit score might be able to get if they were to speak to a lender this week. If you are making a smaller down payment, have a lower credit score or are taking out a non-conforming (or jumbo) mortgage, you may see a higher rate. A good mortgage rate is one where you can comfortably afford the monthly payments and where the other loan details (such as the length of the loan, whether the rate is fixed or adjustable and other fees) fit your needs.

How much does the interest rate affect mortgage payments?

In general, the lower the interest rate the lower your monthly payments will be. For example:

  • If you have a $300,000 fixed-rate 30-year mortgage at 4% interest, your monthly payment will be $1,432 (not including property taxes and insurance). You’ll pay a total of $215,608 in interest over the full loan term.
  • The same-sized loan at 3% interest will have a monthly payment of $1,264. You will pay a total of $155,040 in interest — a savings of over $60,000.

You can use a mortgage calculator to determine how different mortgage rates and down payments will affect your monthly payment. Consider steps for improving your credit score in order to qualify for a better rate.

How are mortgage rates set?

Lenders use a number of factors to set prevailing rates each day. Every lender’s formula will be a little different but will take into account things like the current Federal Funds rate (a short-term rate set by the Federal Reserve), competitor rates and even how much staff they have available to underwrite loans.

In general, rates track the yields on the 10-year Treasury notes. Average mortgage rates are usually about 1.8 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year note. Yields matter because lenders don’t keep the mortgage they originate on their books for long. Instead, in order to free up money to keep originating more loans, lenders sell their mortgages to entities like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. These mortgages are then packaged into what are called mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors. Investors will only buy if they can earn a bit more than they can on the government notes.

Why is my mortgage rate higher than average?

Not all applicants will receive the very best rates when taking out a new mortgage or refinancing. Credit scores, loan term, interest rate types (fixed or adjustable), down payment size, home location and the loan size will all affect mortgage rates offered to individual home shoppers.

Rates also vary between mortgage lenders. It’s estimated that about half of all buyers only look at one lender, primarily because they tend to trust referrals from their real estate agent. Yet this means that they may miss out on a lower rate elsewhere.

Freddie Mac estimates that buyers who got offers from five different lenders averaged 0.17 percentage points lower on their interest rate than those who didn’t get multiple quotes. If you want to find the best rate and term for your loan, it makes sense to shop around first.

Should you refinance your mortgage when interest rates drop?

Determining whether it’s the right time to refinance your home loan or not involves a number of factors. Most experts agree you should consider refinancing if your current mortgage rate exceeds today’s mortgage rates by 0.75 percentage points. It doesn’t make sense to refinance every time rates decline a little bit because mortgage fees would cut into your savings. You also have to consider whether your credit score would qualify you for today’s best refinance rates.

Many online lenders can give you free rate quotes to help you decide whether the money you’d save in interest charges justifies the cost of a new loan. Try to get a quote with a soft credit check which won’t hurt your credit score.

You could increase interest savings by going with a shorter loan term such as a 15-year mortgage. Your payments will be higher, but you could save on interest charges over time and you’d pay off your house sooner.

Should you buy mortgage points?

Many lenders sell mortgage points (also known as discount points). Buying points means you’d pay more up front to lower your mortgage rate which could save you money long-term. A mortgage discount point normally costs 1% of your loan amount and could shave 0.25 percentage points off your interest rate. (So, with a $200,000 mortgage loan, a point would cost $2,000.) Discount points only pay off if you keep the home long enough. Selling the home or refinancing the mortgage before you break even would short circuit the discount point strategy.

In some cases, it makes more sense to put extra cash toward your down payment instead of discount points If a larger down payment could help you avoid paying PMI premiums, for example.

How to shop for the best mortgage rate

Shopping around for the best mortgage rate can not only help you qualify for a lower rate but also save you money. Borrowers who get a rate quote from one additional lender are able to save $1,500 over the life of the loan, according to Freddie Mac. That number goes up to $3,000 if you get five additional quotes.

The best mortgage lender for you will be the one that can give you the lowest rate and the terms you want. Your local bank or credit union is one place to look. Online lenders have expanded their market share over the past decade and promise to get you pre-approved within minutes.

Shop around to compare rates and terms, and make sure your lender has the loan option you need. Not all lenders write USDA-backed mortgages or VA loans, for example. If you’re not sure about a lender’s credentials, ask for its NMLS number and search for online reviews.

Summary of current mortgage rates

Mortgage rates were mixed this week, with the 30-year and 5/1 ARM rate increasing and 15-year rate edging lower:

  • The current rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.11% with 0.6 points paid, moving up by 0.01 percentage points week-over-week. The average rate at this same time last year was 2.71%.
  • The current rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 2.39% with 0.6 points paid, decreasing by 0.03 percentage points from the previous week. Last year the average rate was 2.26%.
  • The current rate on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage is 2.49% with 0.3 points paid, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous week. The average rate was 2.86% last year.


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Economics

JPMorgan Models War Between Russia And Ukraine: Sees Oil Soaring To $150, Global Growth Crashing

JPMorgan Models War Between Russia And Ukraine: Sees Oil Soaring To $150, Global Growth Crashing

With Morgan Stanley joining Goldman and calling…

JPMorgan Models War Between Russia And Ukraine: Sees Oil Soaring To $150, Global Growth Crashing

With Morgan Stanley joining Goldman and calling for $100 oil, and Bank of America’s commodity strategist Francisco Blanch one-upping both, and today laying out the case for $120 oil…

… on Friday afternoon JPMorgan trumped all of its banking peers with a report that is especially troubling if not so much for the implications from its “theoretical” modeling, but for the fact that Wall Street is now actively assessing what may be the start of World War 3.

In a note from the bank’s economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman (available to pro subs) which picks up where our article “Shades Of 2008 As Oil Decouples From Everything” left off, JPM writes that oil shocks have a long history of driving cyclical downturns, with US recessions often associated with oil price spikes…

… most recently of course the surge in oil to all time highs in 2008, which some say sealed the fate of the global financial crisis.

So looking at the latest geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, JPM warns that “these raise the risk of a material spike this quarter.” That this comes on the back of already elevated inflation and a global economy that is being buffeted by yet another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, JPMorgan sees the risk of a kinetic war breaking out as adding “to the near-term fragility of what is otherwise a fundamentally strong recovery.”

Drilling down, JPM considers a scenario in which an adverse geopolitical event between Russia and Ukraine materially disrupts the oil supply. This scenario envisions a sharp 2.3 million b/d contraction in oil output that boosts the oil price quickly to $150/bbl—a 100% rise from the average price in 4Q21.

Given that this would be solely a negative supply shock, the impact on output is to reduce global GDP by 1.6% the bank calculates based on its general equilibrium model. And with global GDP projected to expand at a robust 4.1%ar in 1H22, the economist due project that “this shock would damp annualized growth to 0.9% assuming the adjustment takes place over two quarters. Inflation would also spike
to 7.2%ar, an upward revision of 4%-pts annualized.”

It gets worse: in addition to the drag from a sharp contraction in oil supply our models estimate, there are two other channels through which this shock could damage global growth.

  • The first relates to the repercussions of a Russian intervention in Ukraine. The US, coordinating with allies, would likely impose sanctions on Russia. While the possibilities vary widely in scope, they will likely impact negatively on sentiment and global financial conditions.
  • Second, JPM estimates incorporate the realized behavior of major central banks over the past two decades whereby oil price shocks associated with geopolitical turmoil have been perceived to pose a greater threat to growth than inflation.

Against the backdrop of a year of already elevated inflation and extremely accommodative policies, JPM warns that central banks may display less patience than normal—particularly in the EM, where rising global risk aversion may also place downward pressure on currency values.

To be sure, as with any Wall Street analysis that models war, JPM is quick to caveat its findings, noting that “it is important to recognize that the scenario of a jump in the oil price to $150/bbl is premised on a sharp and substantial shock to the oil supply. History has proven that such large and adverse shocks do material damage to the macroeconomy. In this regard, the results reported here should not be a surprise but seen as useful for quantifying the damage based on a carefully specified general equilibrium model using generally accepted elasticities.”

Boilerplate language aside, what is notable is that for months we have been wondering what “latest and greatest” crisis will replace covid as the Greenlight that central banks and governments need to perpetuate not only QE and NIRP, but also the all important helicopter money. Now we know.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/21/2022 – 15:27

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Rent Prices Skyrocketed 14% Over the Past Year, Far Outpacing Inflation

As would-be buyers abandon their homeownership dreams, renting gets more expensive.

With inflation hovering around 7%, just about everything costs more than it used to, from groceries to heating oil to cars. Even worse, one of the biggest monthly expenses for millions of people — rent — has seen price increases that far outpace regular inflation.

According to new data from Redfin, the average monthly rent in the United States climbed 14.1% last month compared to a year earlier — the biggest jump in two years. The increase brings the average monthly rent payment in the United States to $1,877 as of December 2021, compared to $1,645 at the end of 2020.

East Coast cities including New York, Miami and Jacksonville have seen especially big spikes (up 30% or more year over year), while Austin, Texas, has been hit the hardest with rent price growth of nearly 40%.

Unfortunately, owning a home doesn’t protect you from the soaring cost of housing: Mortgage payments are rising even faster than rent prices. The median national mortgage payment for homebuyers with a 5% down payment surged 21.6% on a yearly basis in December to $1,553, according to Redfin.

“The growth in mortgage payments has been driven by both climbing prices and climbing mortgage rates,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. “And those rising mortgage costs push more potential homebuyers into renting instead, which pushes up demand and prices for rentals.”

That’s especially true for millennials, many of whom are entering their peak homebuying years but are choosing to rent instead thanks to an extremely competitive housing market. A recent study from RentCafe, a rental listing and research company, found that the share of millennial rental applications earning more than $50,000 per year rose to 43% in 2021 — a huge jump from 28% in 2017.

Which cities have the highest rent increases?

While rent prices are rising nationwide, some cities have seen especially big spikes. Here are the 10 cities where rent is rising the fastest, according to Redfin.

  1. Austin, Texas: 40%
  2. Nassau County, New York: 35%
  3. New York, New York: 35%
  4. Newark, New Jersey: 35%
  5. New Brunswick, New Jersey: 35%
  6. Miami, Florida: 34%
  7. West Palm Beach, Florida: 34%
  8. Fort Lauderdale, Florida: 34%
  9. Jacksonville, Florida: 31%
  10. Portland, Oregon: 29%

The average rent payment in Austin, which tops the list, is $2,290. Austin has one of the hottest housing markets in the country. The median home price in Austin rose nearly 19% on a yearly basis to $567,000 last month, according to Redfin. Mortgage payments in Austin rose 37.5% over the course of the last year, according to the new report. (Round Rock, Texas — located just outside of Austin — was featured on Money’s 2021 list of the Best Places to Live thanks in part to its booming job market.)

Only one city included in the Redfin study saw rent prices come down in December compared to the year before: Kansas City, Missouri, where rent fell 0.8%.


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Frustrated House Hunters Are Giving up on Buying Only to Face an Expensive Rental Market

The Math Is Changing on Whether It’s Better to Buy or Rent a Home

8 Signs It’s Time to Stop Renting and Buy


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Economics

5 Reasons ‘Cathie Wood Stocks’ Could Double in 2022

Many of you are familiar with Cathie Wood, the famed stock-picker and founder of ARK Invest who focuses on investing in disruptive tech stocks with enormous…

Many of you are familiar with Cathie Wood, the famed stock-picker and founder of ARK Invest who focuses on investing in disruptive tech stocks with enormous upside potential. Indeed, she’s so famous that the stocks she buys in her funds are often labeled as “Cathie Wood stocks” — stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Teladoc (NYSE:TDOC), Square (NYSE:SQ) and Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU).

An illustration of an astronaut on a cloud looking at a framed photograph of Cathie Wood.Source: Catalyst Labs / Shutterstock

You might also be familiar with how those Cathie Wood stocks have gone from Wall Street’s biggest winners to its biggest losers over the past few years.

During the pandemic, her stocks absolutely soared on the backs of consumers embracing disruptive new technologies and the Fed providing a wall of liquidity to incentivize risk-taking behavior in markets. Cathie’s signature fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK), skyrocketed an amazing 157% higher in 2020.

It was an absolutely jaw-dropping performance.

But stocks don’t go up forever. And, in 2021, Cathie Wood stocks stopped going up as consumers decreased usage of new technology platforms last year and red-hot inflation threatened valuations. By the end of the year, the ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ETF) — the same ETF that rose 157% in 2020 — dropped 24% in 2021.

It was an enormous reversal.

And now my team and I think that so-called Cathie Wood stocks are due for another, even-bigger reversal in 2022 because the thing about stocks is that while they don’t go up forever, they also don’t go down forever — and Cathie Wood stocks have fallen too far, too fast to oversold and undervalued levels with some major turnaround catalysts on the horizon.

2022 Rebound

Our thinking here breaks down into five components:

  • The economy will slow in 2022. Driven by plunging consumer confidence, a sharp drop in the household savings rate, rising interest rates driving up borrowing costs and the end of stimulus payments, consumer spending will fall flat in 2022. Consumer spending drives 70% of the U.S. economy. A consumer spending slowdown will naturally produce an economic slowdown, the likes of which will make healthy corporate earnings growth relatively scarce in the market. Investors will re-concentrate their investment dollars into companies that can continue to produce strong growth — i.e. Cathie Wood stocks. Growth stocks will rise. Value stocks will struggle.
  • Inflation is going to meaningfully decelerate this year. Inflation was the bane of Cathie Wood stocks in 2021. But inflation rates will dramatically cool in 2022 as consumer spending slows, supply chain bottlenecks improve and the year-over-year comps get much harder. Throughout the year, inflation rates will fall from 7% to 5% to 3% and will likely end 2022 around 2%. Accelerating inflation killed Cathie Wood stocks in 2021. Decelerating inflation will boost Cathie Wood stocks in 2022.
  • The Fed will be forced to take a dovish pivot by the summer. This is a data-driven Fed that has a history of only being hawkish when it is absolutely required. A hawkish policy stance will not be required by the summer. Inflation will be decelerating rapidly. Economic expansion will be slowing. And the labor market will likely continue to struggle with shortage concerns. In the face of that data, the Fed will revert to a dovish policy stance — which, of course, will be a bullish development for growth stocks.
  • Consumer usage of technology platforms will reaccelerate throughout the year. Consumers didn’t stop using tech platforms in abundance in 2021 because those platforms weren’t useful. They were just sick and tired of using nothing but those platforms for a full year in 2020. But we are now about a year into the economic reopening, and all those pent-up consumer demands have been exhausted. We fully expect consumer behavior to normalize in 2022. And in this day and age, “normal” means accelerated adoption of tech platforms. Such accelerated adoption will help tech companies re-accelerate their growth trajectories in 2022, especially as the year-over-year comps get easier.
  • Hypergrowth tech stocks are very cheap relative to long-term estimates. And many Cathie Wood stocks get a bad rap for being very expensive. But they’re only expensive if you look at 2022 estimates. If you look at 2025-plus estimates, the story becomes much different. Square is trading at just 1.6X its 2025 sales estimates, while Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) is trading at 2X its 2025 sales estimates. Roku is at 3.4X 2025 sales estimates. Zoom (NYSE:ZM) and DocuSign (NYSE:DOCU) are both around 6X. For comparison, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) is trading at 6.6X its 2025 sales estimates, and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is trading at 5.4X 2025 sales estimates. So in other words, hypergrowth tech stocks have corrected low enough that, based on 2025 estimates, many feature equivalent valuations as blue-chip, zero-growth stocks. That makes no sense — and provides compelling rationale for a move higher in tech stocks.
  • Overall then, we believe that while Cathie Wood stocks were crushed in 2021 and have continued to sell off in 2022, they’re going to rebound enormously over the next 12 months.

    We’re not alone in that thinking…

    Take a look at the consensus 12-month-forward analyst price targets for some of the top Cathie Wood stocks. Coinbase — 91% upside potential. Square — 105% upside potential. Roku — 107% upside potential. Zoom — 78% upside potential. Teladoc — 98% upside potential. UiPath (NYSE:PATH) — 82% upside potential.

    The folks who run the numbers on these stocks think they’re way undervalued. We’ve run the numbers on them too — and we agree.

    Mark our words. 2022 will be a huge rebound year for hypergrowth tech stocks.

    To find out which stocks you should be buying right now for triple-digit returns over the next 12 months, click here.

    On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

    The post 5 Reasons ‘Cathie Wood Stocks’ Could Double in 2022 appeared first on InvestorPlace.




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