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Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq price forecast after the rally in 2021

The Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq advanced on a yearly basis even though the rising inflation, covid pandemic, and the world’s supply chains…

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This article was originally published by Invezz - Market Analysis

The Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq advanced on a yearly basis even though the rising inflation, covid pandemic, and the world’s supply chains crisis represent a serious issue for economic stability.

The United States reported that inflation rose at the highest level in nearly 40 years while the U.S. central bank increased the reduction in bond-buying on a monthly basis from $15 billion to $30 billion.

This is probably the first step towards tightening, and the chances of two or three rate hikes in 2022 have increased. Monetary tightening is usually seen as a drag on stocks, but for now, there has been no noticeable negative effect on the U.S. stock market.

Coronavirus pandemic continues to pose downside risks for the global economy, and nobody still doesn’t know when normal life will return.

The World Health Organization reported that the Omicron variant might cause milder symptoms than the delta variant, but many countries have announced tighter Covid restrictions amid concerns over the Omicron variant.

The U.S. reported an all-time high of more than 585,000 new daily infections last Thursday, and Omicron ​could alter daily life for many Americans during the first month of 2022. Dr. Megan Ranney, a professor of emergency medicine at Brown University’s School of Public Health, added:

What I am so worried about over the next month or so is that our economy is going to shut down, not because of policies from the federal government or from the state governments, but rather because so many of us are ill.

It is important to mention that air traffic site FlightAware reported that nearly 4,400 flights around the world were canceled on Saturday, more than half of them in the U.S.

There are fears that the rising number of cases could overwhelm hospitals, while the new strain also complicates the outlook for how aggressively the U.S. Federal Reserve would normalize monetary policy to fight inflation.

S&P 500 up 26.89% in 2021

S&P 500 (SPX) booked a 26.89% increase in 2021 and closed at 4,766 points.

Data source: tradingview.com

S&P 500 continues to trade in a bull market; still, if the price falls below 4,500 points, it would be a “sell” signal, and we have the open way to 4,300 points.

DJIA up  18.73% in 2021

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advanced 18.73% for the year and closed at 36,338 points.

Data source: tradingview.com

The current resistance level stands at 37,000 points, and if the price jumps above this level, we have the open way to 37,200 points.

On the other side, if the price falls below 35,000 points, it would be a strong “sell” signal, and the next target could be around 34,500 points.

Nasdaq Composite up 21.39% in 2021

 Nasdaq Composite (COMP) booked a 21.39% increase in 2021 and closed at 15,644 points.

Data source: tradingview.com

Nasdaq Composite continues to trade in a bull market; still, if the price falls below 15,000 points, it would be a “sell” signal, and it could be a sign of a trend reversal.

Summary

Wall Street’s three main indexes posted solid gains in 2021 even though the rising inflation, covid pandemic, and the world’s supply chains crisis represent a serious issue for economic stability. The Omicron variant is exploding at unprecedented speed, and it could alter daily life for many Americans during the first month of 2022.

The post Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq price forecast after the rally in 2021 appeared first on Invezz.






Author: Stanko Iliev

Economics

CAD edges up as inflation soars

The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains and has pushed USD/CAD back below the 1.25 line. Canadian inflation hits 30-year high Investors are getting…

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The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains and has pushed USD/CAD back below the 1.25 line.

Canadian inflation hits 30-year high

Investors are getting accustomed to seeing headlines that inflation has surged to 30-year highs. First, it was US inflation, followed by the UK just this week, and now Canada has joined the club of surging inflation. In December, headline CPI rose to 4.8% y/y, in line with expectations and up from 4.7% beforehand. This was the highest print since a 5.5% gain in September 1991. Core CPI climbed to 4.0% y/y, up from 3.6% in November and much higher than the consensus of 3.5%.

The jump in inflation has raised expectations that the BoC will press the rate trigger at next week’s meeting. Inflation has now overshot the bank’s inflation target of 1% to 3% for nine straight months, and cost of living pressures are being felt by worried consumers. Higher oil prices are also contributing to inflation, so we could see even inflation rise even higher in the coming months.

A rate hike next week by the BoC is looking likely, with the markets pricing in a quarter-point hike at around 70%. Next week, the BoC is expected to revise lower its growth forecast for Q1, as Canada’s growth in Q1 is expected to be marginal. Canadian provinces have enacted strict health restrictions in order to spread the rise of Omicron, which is having a negative effect on economic activity. The Omicron factor could derail a rate hike next week, as the BoC may be reluctant to raise rates when the economy is straining under the weight of the variant.

Ahead of its policy meeting next week, the BoC will be keeping a close eye on the retail sales report on Friday. The headline reading and core retail sales are both expected to come in above 1%. If the report misses expectations, it would likely change the market pricing of a BoC rate hike – a sharp reading would cement a rate hike, while a weak release would decrease the chances of the bank raising rates

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USD/CAD Technical

    • There is support at 1.2434, which has held since mid-November. Below, there is support at 1.2322
    •  There is resistance at 1.2678 and 1.2810




Author: Kenny Fisher

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Economics

Zimbabwe Is At It Again…

Zimbabwe Is At It Again…

While the Zimbabwe dollar has been allowed to gradually weaken from parity with the greenback in February 2019…

Zimbabwe Is At It Again…

While the Zimbabwe dollar has been allowed to gradually weaken from parity with the greenback in February 2019 to 112.80 to the dollar today, it trades at over 200 to the dollar on the black market, stoking inflation. The local currency slid 3.68% at the first auction of the year to 112.80 per U.S. dollar, according to data provided by the central bank. That’s the largest decline in two months.

Source: Bloomberg

The black market ZimDollar trades at 240/USD

Source

As Bloomberg reports, business has said it is at the receiving end of the currency rate disparity. It struggles to obtain the foreign currency which it needs to keep operations running and is forced to turn to the parallel market.

The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries, the largest business lobby group in the country, in October warned a policy response from authorities was needed to save the local unit from collapse.

“Such a gap plays havoc” for companies, John Legat, the chief executive officer of Imara, said.

To have the official rate move to match the parallel market rate is “like chasing one’s tail,” according to Mangudya. The unofficial rate will only surge even higher, decimate the earnings of citizens and lead to price hikes in the southern African nation, where annual inflation was 61% in December,” he said.

“People just want to hold U.S. dollars,” said Mangudya.

And it could get a lot worse as Leonard Sengere details at TechZim, it appears that the government is doubling-down what many believe caused the ZimDollar to collapse last year…

After a couple years of recession, the Zim economy grew in 2021. The World Bank says we grew by 5.1%. 

Now, increased economic activity necessitates and causes a growth in money in the economy.  With this in mind, it is reasonable to have the 27% growth in reserve money we saw here.

Only problem with this is that the govt wants to “buttress the growth trajectory established in 2021” and might end up shooting us in the foot.

The government will almost double 2021 spending this year. This will be done to drive economic growth as we seek to grow by 5.5% in 2022.

Government spending and inflation

This plan of theirs is fraught with potential problems. Govt spending or so called expansionary fiscal policies often lead to inflation. 

The Zim govt says in addition to taxes, they will fund their spending by issuing bonds. All well and good, this won’t lead to an increase in reserve money. Both taxes and bond issues in effect mean the government gets its funding from the market and not necessarily from printing (or issuing itself) money. 

Crowding out

However, the govt will likely crowd out the private sector. Like we saw with open market operations, they will be attractive to many in the private sector. So, rather than risk investing in their businesses, they just lend the money to the govt. The much needed private sector growth will be curtailed a little with each bond that is bought. 

Govt inefficiency

So, the private sector which employs the majority of Zimbos grows at a lower rate. And our hopes will then be on the govt to efficiently spend it all. Yes, the same people who can misplace US$15 billion will become our efficiency champions. Yeah, right.

High taxes, low growth

Also to consider is how funding from taxes may not result in the adequate demand growth which helps economies grow. Taxes represent a reduction in people’s spending power. The Zim govt taxes like its going out of fashion and so the taxed will not be able to spend as much on the goods for sale in the country. Businesses suffer for this. 

However, it has the effect of reducing the chances of inflation. I hope the RBZ is reading, because when people have reduced disposable income thanks to taxes, or anything really, demand drops and so suppliers cannot increase prices willy nilly.

How govt spending hurt us in 2021

We should note that the govt wishes to divert part of its spending to infrastructure in 2022. There were significant infrastructure projects that were funded in 2021 and we are not the better for it.

Many economists and business-people becried that beneficiaries of these huge infrastructure project tenders were the same ones flooding the market with Zimdollars. They argue these massive amounts of money were chiefly responsible for the parallel foreign exchange market collapse. 

That’s where the main problem lies. The govt spends billions of Zimdollars and yet all the beneficiaries of that money look to convert it into USD at the earliest convenience. 

So, in 2022, the promise that the govt will double its spending means double the Zimdollars on the black market. Which will lead to an accelerated Zimdollar collapse. That’s even before the US interest rate hikes come in to complete the job and tank the Zimdollar for good.

More terrible ways to spend our money planned

Thing is, we can complain when, say, a road construction company helps tank the Zimdollar. As we have the right to. However, if the road is built, we can then enjoy the road. On the flip side, what if the spending went to parastatals? What can we point to after all is said and done in that case? 

Zimbabwean state-owned companies are not the bastion of stellar performance. Therefore it saddens me that there are significant amounts earmarked for recapitalisation of parastatals. It’s as if all the above wasn’t enough, the govt will be wasting even more time and money on state-owned companies. They promised us they would be selling them off a while back. Guess it was the old govt fib cause they are actually recapitalising.

How many of us are truly excited that the govt, with a straight face, confirmed that AirZimbabwe is ripe for a recapitalisation exercise in 2022? I am not alone in thinking they should just sell off as many of these companies as they can. Instead, they are committed, even to AirZim of all companies.

Two steps back

Let’s be honest, fixing the Zim economy will be no easy task. I do not envy those in decision making positions. There are so many dials and switches to mess about with that it would take a miracle to get the plane off the ground.  

However, when we see two contradictory govt positions we can’t help but get mad. All the gains made in tightening the money supply and somehow taming inflation a little are offset by other fiscal policies. In my opinion, govt spending will be the death of us. Just like it was a major factor in our initial hyperinflation run in the noughties. 

With the 2023 election cycle, we can be certain (off-book) govt spending will reach ungodly levels. My advice – enjoy the calm before the storm.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/20/2022 – 07:00






Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Bibox Token (BIX) Reaches 1-Day Trading Volume of $8.13 Million

Bibox Token (CURRENCY:BIX) traded down 2.3% against the US dollar during the 24-hour period ending at 7:00 AM E.T. on January 20th. Bibox Token has a market…

Bibox Token (CURRENCY:BIX) traded down 2.3% against the US dollar during the 24-hour period ending at 7:00 AM E.T. on January 20th. Bibox Token has a market cap of $3.58 million and approximately $8.13 million worth of Bibox Token was traded on exchanges in the last 24 hours. During the last seven days, Bibox Token has traded 8.4% lower against the US dollar. One Bibox Token coin can currently be bought for approximately $0.0420 or 0.00000100 BTC on major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Here is how other cryptocurrencies have performed during the last 24 hours:

  • Polygon (MATIC) traded down 0.8% against the dollar and now trades at $2.08 or 0.00004948 BTC.
  • Binance USD (BUSD) traded down 0.2% against the dollar and now trades at $1.00 or 0.00002379 BTC.
  • Polygon (MATIC) traded flat against the dollar and now trades at $2.00 or 0.00003275 BTC.
  • Crypto.com Coin (CRO) traded up 1.1% against the dollar and now trades at $0.45 or 0.00001061 BTC.
  • Chainlink (LINK) traded up 0.4% against the dollar and now trades at $22.21 or 0.00052873 BTC.
  • Dai (DAI) traded 0% lower against the dollar and now trades at $1.00 or 0.00002380 BTC.
  • Parkgene (GENE) traded flat against the dollar and now trades at $25.59 or 0.00045023 BTC.
  • Fantom (FTM) traded 2.6% lower against the dollar and now trades at $2.86 or 0.00006796 BTC.
  • DREP (DREP) traded flat against the dollar and now trades at $1.96 or 0.00003398 BTC.
  • DREP [old] (DREP) traded flat against the dollar and now trades at $1.96 or 0.00003399 BTC.

Bibox Token Profile

Bibox Token is a coin. It was first traded on September 28th, 2017. Bibox Token’s total supply is 235,972,808 coins and its circulating supply is 85,430,525 coins. Bibox Token’s official website is www.bibox.com. The Reddit community for Bibox Token is /r/Bibox and the currency’s Github account can be viewed here. Bibox Token’s official Twitter account is @Bibox365 and its Facebook page is accessible here.

According to CryptoCompare, “The Biboxcoin is an Ethereum-based token that allows users to receive a discount for any fees on the Bibox platform, a pure cryptocurrency exchange. Bibox is an AI-enhanced encrypted digital asset exchange, the platform uses an advanced distributed cluster system to ensure its handling capacity of more than 10 million users and enhance its huge error tolerance. “

Bibox Token Coin Trading

It is usually not possible to buy alternative cryptocurrencies such as Bibox Token directly using US dollars. Investors seeking to acquire Bibox Token should first buy Ethereum or Bitcoin using an exchange that deals in US dollars such as Coinbase, Gemini or GDAX. Investors can then use their newly-acquired Ethereum or Bitcoin to buy Bibox Token using one of the exchanges listed above.

The post Bibox Token (BIX) Reaches 1-Day Trading Volume of $8.13 Million appeared first on ETF Daily News.


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