Connect with us

Economics

Global Inflation In Japan Does Not Speak German

Being able to compare European inflation rates with their American counterparts helps expose what’s driving the latter and it’s not inflationary currency….

Share this article:

Published

on

This article was originally published by Alhambra Investment Market Research

Being able to compare European inflation rates with their American counterparts helps expose what’s driving the latter and it’s not inflationary currency. Comparing both of those inflation regimes with the Japanese simply exposes the Bank of Japan and QE. This was perfectly obvious before the Base 2020 CPI estimates came about.

Central banks, we’re always told, possess the printing press of legend and lore. The stories surrounding this currency-cranking machine are always of the cautionary variety by purpose: be very careful lest any printer let too much paper escape and unleash inflationary totality. Not for nothing, this story is always related in German for equally obvious Weimar reasons.

Not just possess, the 21st century central banker is no longer the one who merely threatens to unleash its power. Confronted by big monetary and economic problems, one after another (this seems to be important), the world’s collective money printers have gone literally insane with electric activity.


None more so than the Japanese. Already stuffed to the rafters with bank reserves, supposedly the digital “paper” currency product of this era’s technical output, going back to last February (up to May 2021, the latest average figures posted) the Bank of Japan added another ¥116 trillion to so-called base money which had already reached ¥344 trillion before this latest senselessness began.

In raw terms of BoJ’s balance sheet, the totality of this latest QE LSAP, the increase from February 2020 to July 2021 was also ridiculous: rising from the prior absurd ¥585 trillion to coming in on three-quarters of a quadrillion (¥723 trillion). The ¥138 trillion increase in total assets purchased simply means that the vast majority of those purchases were let straight through the other side of the BoJ balance sheet into bank reserves (only a few dozen trillion being absorbed by other factors).

That works out to an increase in bank reserves of just over 34% in one year and one quarter. Adding another third to, again, what’s called base money having already achieved overflowing levels of same, this could only result in an equally insane amount of consumer price inflation. And you need not speak a word of German.

If bank reserves are indeed base money.

But they absolutely are not:

 



The QQE2020 iteration was already failing by CPI standards from five (now six) years ago. The Base 2015 version of Japan’s average consumer bucket had indicated only the same distinct lack of consumer price inflation despite this overwash of purported currency. According to this now-older set of figures, Japan had gone outright deflation (as it continues to do no matter which numbering or set of letters attached to QE) beginning last October and ending this May.

Statistics Bureau Japan today says, nope, the Japanese economy has yet to escape outright deflation which actually began one month sooner, starting last September. The new benchmark Base 2020 consumer price bucket has substantially revised recent price activity and changes in a way that only further exposes this most central central bank scam:



People are right to suspect these consumer price indices insofar as these are nowhere near as exact or accurate as sometimes made out to be. No one can average out consumer price experience for everyone to four decimal places; what even is an average consumer?

But in Japan’s case, like so many others, including the US CPI, we needn’t obtain unassailable levels of precision. The data is unambiguous despite the fuzziness in methodology and statistic construction.

Not just energy or food in each bucket, either, but also core prices recently revised substantially, too; and that matters a bit more because, recall all the way back in September 2016, BoJ said that it was going to leave no monetary stone unturned until this core inflation rate reached, surpassed, and then stayed well above 2% annual rates for a prolonged period of time (overshooting policy).

Are these central bankers even capable of embarrassment, let alone something more scientific like recognizing and acknowledging how thoroughly proven QE has been?

Proven in only the respect that this smoke and mirrors is nothing whatsoever to do with printing presses, currency of any kind, or inflation.



There is a spectrum to global inflation conditions – yes, global inflation. The real money out here is eurodollar translated, and it has little use for bank reserves of any denomination including US$ (sorry, Jay). Banks are what make money, not central banks. Without the former, it doesn’t really matter what the latter does.

US inflation experience over the past few months has been temporarily supported (or dealing pain) from Uncle Sam, while in Europe without helicopters to that degree much less. Far less still in Japan from no support whatsoever, the fruits of both QE and money-financed fiscal expansion having been done the longest.

But the main problem is the public; and by that, I don’t blame the average person at all since every one of us has been outright lied to for more than 20 years. Each and every time one of these methodically disproven QE’s is rolled out – and it doesn’t matter where – the media uncritically writes the same thing as what had been written of the very first QE two decades ago:

“The BOJ’s move injects a large amount of money into the Japanese economy — known as quantitative easing.”

Not a single thing in that sentence is true, right down to the well-established proof this stupid thing is neither quantitative nor easing. Yet, the passage is reprinted in every single mainstream source everywhere as if set into eternal stone by Weimar’s Friedrich Ebert. As I wrote earlier this year “celebrating” its 20th anniversary:

The fact that this “had not been sufficiently discussed”, in the official recollection of Ms. Shinotsuka’s words, is a huge red flag – one implicating obvious desperation. They didn’t know what else to do, so they flung QE against the wall hoping it would stick.

It never once has stuck, but they’re still flinging away anyway a fifth of a century later. Maybe desperately chucking up bank reserves is a German play for: we really don’t know what we are doing.

Fine, but to then believe that something has significantly changed, inflationary changed, in 2021 in any place around the world is belied by every single bit of evidence and outcome, all summed up to the simple sad truth nothing actually has. That’s the problem as well as the answer.

Economics

Biden’s Vax Mandate To Be Enforced By Fining Companies $70,000 To $700,000?

Biden’s Vax Mandate To Be Enforced By Fining Companies $70,000 To $700,000?

By Adam Andrzejewski, CEO/Founder of OpenTheBooks.com; originally…

Share this article:

Biden's Vax Mandate To Be Enforced By Fining Companies $70,000 To $700,000?

By Adam Andrzejewski, CEO/Founder of OpenTheBooks.com; originally published in Forbes

President Joe Biden didn’t just announce a Covid-19 vaccine mandate on companies employing 100 or more people, he plans to enforce it.

On Saturday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s House quietly tucked an enforcement mechanism into their $3.5 trillion “reconciliation” bill, passed it out of the Budget Committee, and sent it to the House floor.

Buried on page 168 of the House Democrats’ 2,465-page mega bill is a tenfold increase in fines for employers that “willfully,” “repeatedly,” or even seriously violate a section of labor law that deals with hazards, death, or serious physical harm to their employees.

The increased fines on employers could run as high as $70,000 for serious infractions, and $700,000 for willful or repeated violations—almost three-quarters of a million dollars for each fine. If enacted into law, vax enforcement could bankrupt non-compliant companies even more quickly than the $14,000 OSHA fine anticipated under Biden’s announced mandate.

The Biden Administration has already started implementing its vaccine mandate enforcement blueprint:

  • The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) set precedent this summer and published an emergency Covid-19 rule in the Federal Register taking jurisdiction over and providing justification for Covid-19 being a workplace hazard for healthcare employment.

  • Early in September, Biden announced his 100-or-more employee Covid-19 vaccine mandate and tasked OSHA with drafting an enforcement rule to exert emergency vaccine compliance authority over companies with 100 or more employees.

  • The legislative provision that passed the Budget Committee raises the OSHA fines for non-compliance 10 times higher – and up to $700,000 for each “willful” or “repeated” violation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has not announced when the House will vote on the reconciliation bill that includes the new OSHA fines.

  • If the legislation is enacted, OSHA could levy draconian fines to enforce Biden’s vaccine mandate, a move that could rapidly bankrupt non-compliant companies. The Biden mandate affects employers collectively employing an estimated 80 million workers.

The Democrats are playing hardball.                      

President Biden embraced an aggressive stance earlier this month when he challenged Republicans who are threatening lawsuits over what they decry as his federal overreach: “Have at it. … We’re playing for real here. This isn’t a game.”

The Legislation

The provision tucked in the House reconciliation budget bill (on page 168) that increases OSHA fines reads:

SEC. 21004. ADJUSTMENT OF CIVIL PENALTIES.

(a) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ACT OF 1970.—Section 17 of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 (29 U.S.C. 666) is amended—

(1) in subsection (a)—

  (A) by striking ‘‘$70,000’’ and inserting ‘‘$700,000’’; and

(B) by striking ‘‘$5,000’’ and inserting ‘‘$50,000’’;

(2) in subsection (b), by striking ‘‘$7,000’’ and inserting ‘‘$70,000’’; and

(3) in subsection (d), by striking ‘‘$7,000’’ and inserting ‘‘$70,000’’

That provision would change existing law relating to OSHA’s enforcement fines, the very same section of law whose fines OSHA referenced in its June Covid-19 healthcare worker rule and is likely to use again to enforce its forthcoming vaccine compliance rules.

The Existing Law

29 U.S.C.§ 666 lays out OSHA enforcement fine levels. The 1970-enacted law reads:

29 U.S. Code § 666 - Civil and criminal penalties

(a) Willful or repeated violation Any employer who willfully or repeatedly violates the requirements of section 654 of this title, any standard, rule, or order promulgated pursuant to section 655 of this title, or regulations prescribed pursuant to this chapter may be assessed a civil penalty of not more than $70,000 for each violation, but not less than $5,000 for each willful violation

(b) Citation for serious violation Any employer who has received a citation for a serious violation of the requirements of section 654 of this title, of any standard, rule, or order promulgated pursuant to section 655 of this title, or of any regulations prescribed pursuant to this chapter, shall be assessed a civil penalty of up to $7,000 for each such violation [emphasis added].

Each year, OSHA adjusts these penalties for inflation, so for 2021, the fines are not actually capped at $70,000 and $7,000, but $136,532 and $13,653 per violation. If House Democrats get their way, by enacting the page 168 changes, those fines would increase to $700,000 for willful and repeated violations and $70,000 for serious violations.  

Section 654, cross-referenced in the OSHA enforcement penalty code, outlines the law requiring workplaces to be “free from recognized hazards” causing harm or death:

29 U.S. Code § 654 - Duties of employers and employees

(a) Each employer

(1) shall furnish to each of his employees employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm to his employees;

(2) shall comply with occupational safety and health standards promulgated under this chapter.

(b) Each employee shall comply with occupational safety and health standards and all rules, regulations, and orders issued pursuant to this chapter which are applicable to his own actions and conduct [emphasis added].

OSHA has already published a rule this year claiming Covid-19 is a workplace hazard, and the agency is using this provision of law to assert and enforce its authority. It is likely the new rule to enforce Biden’s mandate will also use this authority, and by extension use the fines upon enforcement.

Huge Crippling OSHA Fines, Likely By Design

The crippling change described on page 168 of the Democrats’ bill isn’t a typo or a clerical error. It was inserted by design and, likely, with the hope that no one would notice before Democrats ram the bill through Congress.

If enacted, it could bankrupt a whole host of companies that do not believe they should have to comply with the Biden administration’s mandate or harbor the cost of intrusive, weekly tests.

In its June 2021 emergency rule affecting health care workers, OSHA complained it was having a hard time motivating employers with its paltry $13,653 fine:

“OSHA has been limited in its ability to impose penalties high enough to motivate the very large employers who are unlikely to be deterred by penalty assessments of tens of thousands of dollars, but whose noncompliance can endanger thousands of workers …”

The Critics

Some have openly discussed businesses defying the mandate and taking their risks with OSHA fines. For example, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) tweeted that businesses “should openly rebel” against any OSHA rule.

It’s one thing to defy a $14,000 fine. It’s quite another to risk incurring hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines. One or two disgruntled employees, for example, could bring an employer $70,000-$140,000 in OSHA fines. If considered “willful,” as per Rep. Roy’s tweet — just three “violations” could quickly become a $2.1 million OSHA fine.

Conclusion:

If its provision becomes law, the Biden administration may force American businesses to choose between vaccinating their employees, testing them weekly for Covid-19, or going bankrupt under crippling OSHA fines.

In September, Biden warned the tens of millions of Americans who have declined vaccination against Covid-19, “We’ve been patient. But our patience is wearing thin, and your refusal has cost all of us.”

Now the Democrats in the House are hoping to make employers foot the bill for that “cost” in the form of fines and bankruptcy.

Republicans might want to read page 168 of the Democrats’ bill. After all, as we like to say at OpenTheBooks.com, the text of the bill is online in real time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/28/2021 - 22:05
Continue Reading

Economics

US Hog Herd Hit By Largest Monthly Drop Since 1999

US Hog Herd Hit By Largest Monthly Drop Since 1999

US hog herds experienced the most significant monthly drop in two decades, according to…

Share this article:

US Hog Herd Hit By Largest Monthly Drop Since 1999

US hog herds experienced the most significant monthly drop in two decades, according to new data from the USDA. The reason behind the drop is because farmers decreased hog-herd development over the last year due to labor disruptions at slaughterhouses plus high animal feed. 

USDA data showed the US hog herd was 3.9% lower in August than a year ago. It was the largest monthly drop since 1999 after analysts only expected a decline of about 1.7%, according to Bloomberg

On Monday, hog futures soared in Chicago after the news of tightening supply. Since contracts hit a seven-year high in June, they have plunged from $120 to $80 but have since recovered in recent days to $90. 

Supply chain woes at slaughterhouses, and declining cold pork storage in US warehouses, have pushed up pork consumer prices to record highs. 

Farmers are experiencing a challenging environment of skyrocketing feed prices and other commodity prices used to maintain and growing pig herds, along with the labor disruptions at slaughterhouses that sometimes force them to cull herds. 

Soaring supermarket meat prices have been devastating for working-poor families who allocate a high percentage of their incomes to basic and essential items. The Biden administration spent most of the year ignoring the dramatic increase in food prices and only addressed the issue earlier this month by blaming meatpackers. The administration even had the nerve to say that if meat prices are taken out of the equation, troubling grocery inflation would be lower. 

To sum up, shrinking hog herds means pork prices will stay high. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/28/2021 - 20:25
Continue Reading

Economics

Volatility Roars Back

The surging 10-Year Treasury yield spooks tech investors … watch out for Evergrande default volatility… another debt ceiling showdown

It’s like…

Share this article:

The surging 10-Year Treasury yield spooks tech investors … watch out for Evergrande default volatility… another debt ceiling showdown

It’s like when you’re flying, feel a few jolts of turbulence, then see the “seatbelt” sign flash on.

Investors are experiencing some market turbulence – and buckling up is probably a good idea.

There are three things troubling markets right now. Let’s look at them to get a sense for how significant they might be.

As I write Tuesday morning, the markets are deep in the red thanks to the soaring 10-Year Treasury yield.

After falling under 1.2% in early August, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury has been pushing higher over the last two months.

That “push” turned into a full-blown “leap” last week, as the yield jumped from roughly 1.3% to over 1.5% as I write.

I’ve circled this one-week spike of about 18% on the chart below.

Source: MarketWatch.com

This is significant because the yield on the 10-Year Treasury is a major barometer for how traders are feeling about the market and inflation-risk.

A rising yield also serves as a major headwind for technology stocks. Given this, it’s no wonder that our hypergrowth tech expert, Luke Lango, has been monitoring this surge.

From Luke’s Early Stage Investor update yesterday:

The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 1.5% today, continuing its sharpest ascent since February.

Yields have now risen about 20 basis points since the Fed’s meeting last week, as investors are bracing for the Treasury market’s biggest buyer to become a seller before year-end.

This move makes sense, and more importantly, it’s nothing to worry about.

***Why Luke is urging a levelheaded response

Luke points out that while yields might have further to climb, they should return to lower levels due to a handful of reasons.

Back to Luke with those details:

The fact of the matter is that yields were too low, so now they’re correcting higher, but they won’t go much higher from here because there are structural forces in place that will keep them lower for longer.

For one, you have secular deflationary pressures via the expansion and improvement of productivity-boosting and cost-reducing technologies, like automation, artificial intelligence, and virtualization platforms.

For another, you have persistently strong demand for risk-free assets from risk-adverse funds like pension funds – in a market where “cash is trash” and valuations are a bit too stretched to attract major allocations from these risk-adverse funds.

You also have the fact that the labor market will face long-term headwinds from automation technology threatening to disrupt large swaths of the labor market. That will put a floor on how low the unemployment rate can go, which will keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Not to mention, the Fed serves the U.S. government, and the U.S. government has accumulated a lot of debt over the past few years (especially the past 24 months) … so, in order to keep interest payments low for its “boss,” the Fed is incentivized to keep rates lower for longer. Same with every other central bank in the world, for that matter.

Long story short, there are simply too many secular forces at play here for yields to rise much higher. Make no mistake. They will move higher. But at a very slow and gradual pace

The second reason why Luke isn’t alarmed by the yield spike is because he’s focusing on what matters – the long-term growth story, along with earnings.

Back to Luke:

Near-term movements in the yield curve will dictate near-term price action.

But the long-term value of our stocks will be driven by the long-term earnings growth trajectories of our companies.

So long as our companies produce lots of earnings over the next few years, our stocks will move higher – regardless of where yields end up.

Even though the long-term is what matters, for now, the short-term is volatile – and painful. But Luke stresses this is a temporary problem that’s actually an opportunity:

All in all, things look great.

Let the yield volatility resolve itself in the coming weeks. Let tech stocks chop around. Buy the dip when the volatility settles.

Let’s move on to the second source of today’s volatility.

***The threat of a broader fallout from Evergrande is also worrying investors

Let’s begin with yesterday’s update from our Strategic Trader team of John Jagerson and Wade Hansen:

The Evergrande situation in China is continuing to put traders on edge.

A default seems very likely, and most of the world’s major financial institutions have material direct or indirect exposure to that risk.

To make sure we’re all on the same page, Evergrande is an enormous Chinese real estate company that is failing to meet its debt payments.

Last Thursday, the troubled company missed an $84 million payment. It owes another $47.5 million tomorrow.

The broader fear is that this could be a “Lehman Brothers” meltdown for China. Real estate makes up roughly 30% of the Chinese GDP, so a collapse would have a very real impact on their broader economy. It’s reported that Evergrande alone helps sustain more than 3.8 million jobs each year (directly employing about 200,000).

Yesterday, legendary investor, Louis Navellier, also updated his Accelerated Profits subscribers on this situation. Here he is speaking to this broader fear:

A housing bust would have a pretty big impact on the Chinese economy.

Some economists are even predicting that if Evergrande fails, it could cause China to slip into a recession — and, of course, these fears are part of the reason why the stock market sold off hard last Monday.

The good news is neither Louis nor our Strategic Trader team believe significant economic contagion from a default will reach the U.S. However, we could be in for market volatility. Given this, it’s impacting where John and Wade will be looking for trade set-ups.

Back to their update on this note:

We should be cleareyed about the risks and potential for volatility as we get closer to 3rd quarter earnings season in October.

We expect volatility to rise, and we don’t plan on targeting any trades in energy or basic materials, but we also don’t see much risk of a major drawdown yet.

As I write Tuesday, the latest news is that Beijing is urging government-owned property developers to buy up some of Evergrande’s assets. So, it’s not a direct bailout, though it’s a bailout.

From Reuters:

Authorities are hoping, however, that asset purchases will ward off or at least mitigate any social unrest that could occur if Evergrande were to suffer a messy collapse, they said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

We’ll update you as events unfold here, but don’t be surprised if markets suffer another mini-panic if we get bad news from China.

***Finally, partisan politics could upset markets

The debt ceiling deadline is this Friday.

Last night, Senate Republicans voted against a House-backed bill that would have suspended the debt limit. They objected to how the bill was attached to a broader spending bill pushed by Democrats.

From Bloomberg:

Without a shift in position by one of the two parties, the decision to combine the temporary funding measure and the debt ceiling leaves the U.S. on course for a government shutdown and defaults on federal payments as soon as next month.

According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, without a suspension or raising of the ceiling, there will be a risk of default between Oct. 15 and Nov. 4.

Moody’s Analytics suggests that a prolonged shutdown, were it to happen, would cause another recession, destroying approximately $15 trillion in household wealth and 6 million jobs.

Our politicians are aware of this and don’t want to be responsible, so what we’re seeing is partisan brinksmanship. However, the closer we get to Friday without that solution, the greater the risk of more market volatility.

But remember, we saw this in 2011, when the debt ceiling showdown led to a downgrade in U.S. AAA sovereign credit, and again in 2018 as U.S./China trade tensions were growing. Both times brought plenty of anxious hand-wringing, yet both times we moved past it.

Bottom-line, fasten your seatbelt as these three issues work themselves out. It could get worse before it gets better – but it will get better.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

The post Volatility Roars Back appeared first on InvestorPlace.

Continue Reading

Trending