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It’s Sector Rotation, Not a Bear Market

We’re back to sector rotation in the S&P 500 … what sectors are treating money the best right now … a forecast for the tech sector … crypto…

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This article was originally published by Investor Place

We’re back to sector rotation in the S&P 500 … what sectors are treating money the best right now … a forecast for the tech sector … crypto pops

A quick note to begin today’s Digest

Tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET, you’re invited to join Louis Navellier and Eric Fry for their Escape Velocity Event.

“Escape Velocity” is a reference to financial freedom – breaking free from the financial weight of taxes, inflation, a litany of bills, and all the other expenses that erode wealth.

Tomorrow, Louis and Eric will be discussing how they’re helping investors achieve this Escape Velocity through a market strategy that amplifies returns.

Here’s Louis, illustrating:

I recommended my followers buy Netflix in May of 2017.

Over the next two years, my Netflix recommendation handed my followers a 122% gain, the chance at more than doubling their money.

Not bad, right?

But a back test of a new strategy I’ve been developing showed that it was possible to bank not just a 122% gain over that time frame…

But a massive 1,725% gain!

With one simple “enhancement,” anyone could have banked 14 times more!

Tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET, Louis and Eric will dive into all the details. Click here to reserve your seat, and we’ll see you there.

***Let’s get the bad news out of the way

From our Strategic Trader experts, John Jagerson and Wade Hansen:

The sudden rise (in the 10-Year Treasury yield) has caused havoc for many stocks in the technology, utilities, and real estate sectors because higher bond yields make those sectors less competitive.

As shares in these sectors have fallen, the S&P 500 has dropped back down to support at 4,350 (see below).

This drop has put the S&P 500 on the cusp of completing a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

The index hasn’t completed the price pattern yet; it will need to close below the “neckline” of the pattern at 4,350 to confirm the pattern. But some traders are getting nervous nonetheless.

John and Wade wrote this analysis last Wednesday. Since then, the S&P did close beneath 4,350.

***In good news, John and Wade believe what we’re seeing isn’t so much a market collapse as it is a sector rotation

So, what sectors are on the receiving end of capital-flows?

The ones benefiting from the strengthening U.S. dollar.

Back to John and Wade:

Wall Street isn’t panicking, it’s simply starting to rotate money into the sectors that are poised to benefit from another knock-on effect from rising interest rates: a stronger U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar (USD) has been in a long-term downtrend since the coronavirus crisis kicked into full gear in March 2020.

The monetary and fiscal stimulus measures the United States put into place to deal with the pandemic pushed the value of the USD to multi-year lows.

However, the USD has been rebounding since June as the U.S. economy has been recovering and currency traders have been preparing for the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

The rebound accelerated last week after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (see below).

John and Wade point out that the increase in the value of the dollar is bad for some sectors, though good for others.

The hardest hit sectors from a strengthening dollar are those that generate much of their revenues overseas. That’s because the conversion rate works against them.

Back to John and Wade to explain:

For example, if a company generates €1 million in profits in Europe when the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.20, the company can claim $1.20 million in profits when it repatriates the money because €1 is equal to $1.20.

However, if a company generates that same €1 million in profits in Europe when the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.05, the company can only claim $1.05 million in profits when it repatriates the money because €1 is only equal to $1.05.

As the USD gets stronger and stronger, companies that generate a larger percentage of their revenue overseas are going to feel the pinch. Conversely, companies that generate a smaller percentage of their revenue overseas are going to benefit.

Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials generally have less international revenue exposure. Utilities and Real Estate are in the same boat, but they are running into the headwind of higher bond yields (which are competition for their dividend yields).

Below, we see how the ten S&P 500 sectors performed from September 20 through September 29. It’s a helpful illustration of where the money is flowing into (and out of).

  • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): 11.28%
  • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF): 4.10%
  • Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY): 2.00%
  • Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB): 1.35%
  • Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI): 1.13%
  • Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP): -0.66%
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): -0.67%
  • Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV): -1.95%
  • Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE): -2.51%
  • Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU): -3.11%

Here’s John and Wade’s bottom-line on what we’re seeing in the stock market today:

While the market is certainly correcting lower, there is still strong demand for U.S. equities. The money is simply shifting to different sectors at the moment.

***One sector feeling the pain of this rotation is technology

Tech-investors’ woes comes not as much from the strengthening dollar and exchange-rate headwinds as it does from soaring yields and what that does for tech stock valuations.

Our hypergrowth expert, Luke Lango, has been tracking this yield-spike. While it’s painful now, Luke believes there’s a limit to how long this will last.

From his Early Stage Investor Daily Notes:

Investors are worried that there are still a few more innings left in this current yield surge cycle.

We agree.

We believe the near-term outlook is for yields to go higher, or at the very least, for investors to be afraid that yields could go higher – and for this to create some near-term weakness in growth stocks, tech stocks, and our portfolios.

Howeverwe do not see this phenomenon lasting for much more than a few weeks.

This current yield surge will end up being an overshoot – as has every yield surge of the past 40 years – and over the next 12+ months, yields will remain stuck below 2%.

As we explained, that’s a level that provides huge valuation tailwinds for the whole market.

If you’re a tech investor who’s weary of all this weakness and wondering what’s on the way, here’s Luke’s forecast:

When it comes to our stocks, we’re near-term cautious, medium-term bullish, and long-term super bullish.

As I write Monday afternoon, tech is under pressure once again with the Nasdaq down more than 2.5%. True to form, the reason behind the selloff is another jump in the 10-Year Treasury yield overnight.

Earlier in today’s session, it topped 1.5%. As I write, it’s fallen to 1.47%. Luke’s “near-term cautious” prediction is playing out.

But remember what Luke says is coming next. Hang in there.

***Another beleaguered sector that’s enjoying a recent show of strength

Last Friday, crypto prices soared.

Bitcoin and Ethereum led gains after Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, said he wasn’t thinking of a crypto ban here in the U.S.

From The Wall Street Journal:

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies jumped suddenly Friday, a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. didn’t have plans to ban cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin rose 9% from its 5 p.m. ET value on Thursday to $47,352.65, its highest level in almost two weeks. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, gained 8.8% to $3,232.93 over the same period.

Crypto prices continued to rise Saturday, followed by profit-taking as Sunday rolled into this morning.

Even before Powell’s comments, Luke, who is also one of our crypto experts, was urging crypto investors to keep a level-head about recent weakness.

From last week’s issue of Ultimate Crypto:

Just like in 2013, 2017, and early 2021, this interim weakness is driven by near-term noise that will not dictate the long-term price trajectory – while the underlying fundamentals remain as strong as ever.

As to those “fundamentals,” they all relate back to adoption.

On that note, last week, Twitter added a feature enabling Twitter users to tip fellow Tweeters with bitcoin. Meanwhile, Affirm, which is an online lender that helped popularize the “buy now, pay later” business model, stepped into the crypto sector.

From CNBC:

In an investor presentation Tuesday, Affirm CEO Max Levchin said his company is working on a feature that will let consumers “buy and sell cryptocurrencies directly from their savings account.”

“It’s time for Affirm to support cryptocurrencies in a way that feels organic to us,” Levchin said, during the two-hour presentation. “We will soon leverage our savings accounts to seamlessly enable crypto ownership.”

Keep your eyes on adoption – not prices. And to get the latest sector analysis from Luke, as well as his top Ultimate Crypto altcoin picks, click here.

We’ll keep you updated on crypto, tech, and the broader section rotation over the coming weeks.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

The post It’s Sector Rotation, Not a Bear Market appeared first on InvestorPlace.








Author: Jeff Remsburg

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Economics

UK Faces ‘Plan B’ Peril: COVID Multiplies The Economic Threat

UK Faces ‘Plan B’ Peril: COVID Multiplies The Economic Threat

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“T’was the best of times,…

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UK Faces ‘Plan B’ Peril: COVID Multiplies The Economic Threat

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“T’was the best of times, t’was the worst of times …”

The risks of Plan B and a further Covid Lockdown are multiplying. It will clearly impact markets, but the real economic effects of Covid combined with energy costs, supply chains and bleak company earnings forecasts may be pushing us towards stagflation anyway.

“How to address the biggest economic shock in 300 years?” asked UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak while doing his pre-budget politicking last week. Whatever you believe or don’t believe about Covid, Sunak is quite right to consider it at the centre of the on-going economic crisis. Markets should factor that reality accordingly – which boils down to a very simple question: how much will Covid force Central Banks and Governments to act to stabilise the global economy?

This week pay attention to the UK Budget on Wednesday on how Chancellor Sunak addresses the ongoing critical-care needs of the UK by stepping away from his previous “policy-mistake” sounding mention of austerity spending cuts and tax-rises to make noises about increased “levelling out” spending. Hanging over everything will be the question – how much more economic pain could Covid inflict?

It’s a tough question.  A new lockdown would be economic suicide. The UK government plans to ride it out – but the history of the last 19 months says they won’t hesitate to make a U-Turn and institute Plan B if they think their credibility is on the line if the numbers of infections surge and the health service looks swamped. That’s a potential trade: should you sell UK stocks now on the likelihood the government will panic? (And buy-them back almost immediately as the Bank of England stops the noise about a rate cut and QE taper.)

But… another question is how much will rising infection numbers cause the economy to contract anyway? How much has confidence already been dented?

Here in Blighty, It’s a tale of two headlines:

Daily Mirror: Fears of new lockdown Christmas as scientists warn tougher Covid measures needed NOW.

Daily Telegraph: Coronavirus cases to slump this winter, say scientists.

The papers looks like it boils down to a political split – which may reflect the UK’s national pride in our venerable National Health Service. How much we are prepared to sacrifice to protect the sacred cow of the NHS has become a badge. The left-leaning, Labour supporting Daily Mirror is peddling one set of scientific views, while the daily journal of the Conservative Party, the Torygraph, finds another set of white-coats to quote.

What does the threat of Plan B or further lockdowns mean for the UK economy? A quick glance round the motorway service stations we stopped in yesterday shows many more people wearing masks, and I’ll be interested in how many people start working from again as the perceived threat level rises.

I wonder how rationally people consider the pandemic. The vector for the rise in infections is schoolchildren being children – their interactions will diminish this week due to mid-term holidays. Back in September, a British Medical Journal report (How is vaccination affecting hospital admissions and deaths?) said 84% of hospital admissions before July had not been vaccinated, although rates of vaccinated infections were rising – their conclusion was simple: unvaccinated people are 3 times as likely to go to hospital and 3 times more likely to die. There is a broad consensus the efficacy of vaccines wanes after 5-6 months – hence booster shots.

Maybe the best way to move forward is the Swedish solution of taking personal responsibility to rising infection numbers? However, research in the Guardian earlier this year suggests that strict-lockdown Denmark and easy-going Sweden experienced similar levels of economic dislocation, but Sweden suffered a death rate 5 times higher than Denmark! It’s down to behaviour – Sweden kept the schools, offices, shops and pubs open, but people got careful, stopped going out and kept the kids at home anyway.

As the supply chain crisis continues, and energy prices go through the roof, we already know it’s going to be a tough holiday season – retailers warning of toy shortages and price hikes on scarce Turkeys. It impacts consumer behaviour – we all want to spend, but if we can’t because of rising prices and falling incomes, and it feels dangerous to do so – then what effect does that have on spending patterns? It’s got to be negative.

We’re seeing the supply chain effects beginning to hit corporate results – an increasing number of firms have been giving lacklustre holiday earnings guidance. Intel took a spanking last week on the back of expectations of a downbeat outlook. Snap got pummelled on the back of a disappointing Q3 number. This week is big for Big Tech earnings – and names from Apple to Amazon could be pummelled by supply chain shortages and the problems these cause meeting holiday demand.

Headlines about a downbeat Apple sales forecast have consequences – not just in making global consumers a little more depressed about the future.

The very first thing junior economists learn about is multiplier effects – on consequences as lay-people call them. A company finds it can’t get it full allocation of Christmas units to sell so it cuts advertising, cuts stuff overtime and starts planning to cut investment in new plants, warehouses and future spending. Repeat over the whole economy, and with everyone with less in their pockets… as “transitory” inflation feels increasingly permanent, and you’ve got a perfect recipe for stagflation.

I often get accused of being a misery-guts and far too negative about the state of the global economy. My own market mantras include the classic: “Things are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope”.

Think about that for a moment. Covid caused the greatest economic downspike in 300 years, but the actions of swift government interventions to prop up commerce and fuel consumer spending kept the global economy functional, but wobbly. The markets quickly began to anticipate recovery and upside – yet these remain vulnerable to the news and perceptions around this Coronavirus.

Covid fears are multiplying again. Renewed Covid instability on the back of lockdown news from China, Europe, Australasia, wherever, will continue to roil markets. Supply chains remain fractured and the consequences of the virus effects on the global economy will continue.

Get used to it…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/26/2021 – 03:30



Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

The Gaslighting Of America

The Gaslighting Of America

Authored by Bob Weir via AmericanThinker.com,

I remember a comedy skit several years ago in which a woman comes…

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The Gaslighting Of America

Authored by Bob Weir via AmericanThinker.com,

I remember a comedy skit several years ago in which a woman comes home unexpectedly and finds her husband in bed with another woman.  Shocked, she demands to know who the woman is and why her husband is doing this.  The couple get out of bed and start getting dressed as the man says to his wife, “Honey, what are you talking about?” The wife, perplexed at the question, says, “I’m talking about that woman!”  Meanwhile, the other woman, now fully dressed, heads for the door.  The husband says, “What woman?  Honey, are you feeling okay?  There’s no woman here.”  Feeling dazed and confused, the wife begins to question her own sanity.

That’s a pretty good example of what the Biden administration is pulling on the psyche of the American people.  

What they’re doing is not merely “spin,” which has become SOP whenever a political party does a clever sales job on the public in order to keep certain facts from them.  No, this is much more than shrewd marketing; this is blatantly lying in the public’s face and telling them they’re crazy if they believe their own eyes.  

When we look at videos showing thousands of migrants coming across our southern border with impunity, while Biden and his cohorts tell us they have the situation under control, we’re being gaslighted.

When thousands of Americans and Afghan allies are abandoned to be tortured and killed by Taliban terrorists, while Biden’s press secretary, Jen Psaki, tells us the war ended successfully, we’re being told not to believe what we’re seeing.  

President Trump made our country energy independent, only to have his success overturned by Biden on day one of Biden’s presidency.  That forced our country to once again be dependent on foreign oil.  Biden said his action would help protect the environment.  We scratch our heads and wonder how it makes sense to ship millions of barrels of oil on cargo ships from thousands of miles away, only to be used the same way it was used when it was processed here.  

Does foreign oil have less environmental effect than American oil?

When Biden proposes a $3.5-billion “infrastructure bill” that is heavily weighted toward social engineering and radical “Green New Deal” initiatives, we’re told that everything is infrastructure.  

We’re also told that the massive spending bill will cost “zero dollars” because the new taxes will be assessed only on the wealthy.  

Then, to add more consternation to a public getting groggy trying to keep up with twelve-digit numbers, Biden and his accomplices want another $80 billion for the IRS so its agents can check into every bank account that has transfers of $600 or more.  As if the IRS weren’t already a liberty-crushing organization, Biden wants to provide it with more ammo to use against those who oppose him.  Nevertheless, we’re told it’s going after only tax cheats.  Why would these people need $80 billion more to do what they’ve always done?  Don’t ask, lest you get audited for questions they don’t want asked.

When the supply chain of cargo ships, carrying about a half-million shipping containers filled with goods from all around the globe, are stalled in the waters outside major American port cities, we’re told by White House chief of staff Ron Klain that it’s just “high-class problems.”  

In other words, only the wealthy are waiting for the goods to arrive at stores.  Moreover, Jen Psaki mocks it as the “tragedy of the treadmill that’s delayed” — another elitist poking fun at the reasonable expectations coming from the working class.

The list of gaslighting incidents is growing longer than Pinocchio’s nose. 

Each time we are faced with another destructive lie, our attention is diverted to the latest Trump investigation or the probe of one of his supporters.  Keeping the January 6 imbroglio alive is one of those diversions.  The radical left has come to power by a sinister display of distractions from reality.  A major part of that distraction is using accusations of racism to muzzle opposition.  Most people will cower in fear of such labeling, even when they know in their hearts it’s not true.  That’s precisely what makes the accusations so useful to those who seek power through intimidation and distortion of reality.  

President Trump called out situations for what they are, without the odious and murky filtration of political correctness.  That’s why the entrenched powers of Deep State corruption despised him.  

Now we’re stuck with a president who says “what inflation?” as we pay higher prices than ever at the gas pump and the supermarket.  I seriously doubt that shoppers are questioning that reality.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/25/2021 – 21:10

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

The U.S. Budget Deficit

#CKStrong The U.S. Treasury findly released their monthly statement on Friday, which closed the books on the government’s 2021 fiscal year (October to…

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#CKStrong

The U.S. Treasury findly released their monthly statement on Friday, which closed the books on the government’s 2021 fiscal year (October to September).  The deficit came in at $2.8 trillion (12.0 percent of GDP, based on our Q3 GDP estimate) , a bit lower than FY 2020’s $3.1 trillion (14.8 percent of GDP).  Those are some massive deficits, folks. 

 

U.S. Deficit Larger Than 95 Percent Of Global Economies

In fact, the FY 2021 deficit was larger than Italy and Canada’s economy, bigger than 185 of the 192 country economies in the lastest IMF database.  Take a look at the peak 12-month deficit of $4.1 trillion in March.  The March deficit would have made the G5. 

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is usg_deficit_3.png

Financing The COVID Deficit

How can the U.S. Treasury finance $5 trillion in borrowing over the past 18-months without spiking global interest rates, crowding out investment and other asset markets, and tanking asset prices?   They can’t.  

The table below breaks down the financing in several different measures.  Check it out.

The bottom line is that 23 percent of the COVID deficit borrowing has been financed by an increase in Treasury bill issuance, easy given the mass excess liquidty on the short-end where the Fed is soaking up over a trillion with overnight reverse repos in order to keep short-term rates postives.  Most of that liquidity, by the way, was created from QE.   

Of the remaining $4.1 trillion of non T-Bill debt issuance, 75 percent was taken down by the Fed, albeit indirectly.   

No Judgement

There you have have it, folks, T-Bills and the Fed have financed the bulk of the COVID deficit and debt buildup.   No judgment, but policymakers are now going to have engineer a soft landing in the economy and asset markets as we approach a fiscal cliff to normalize the budget deficit and tighten up monetary policy. 

We are not throwing stones as they saved the world from a global economic castasophe.

We do criticize their continued irresponsible policies as inflation rages and stagflation sets in.  It’s not wise, in our experience, to try and monetize supply shocks.  We learned that hard and painful lesson by doing so with the OPEC oil shocks.  

Narrow window for a soft landing.  Stay tuned. 

Email us or comment if you have questions.  








Author: macromon

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