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OPEC Is Not The Only Solution To High Oil Prices

OPEC Is Not The Only Solution To High Oil Prices

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

High oil prices are a symptom of economic and monetary imbalances,…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

OPEC Is Not The Only Solution To High Oil Prices

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

High oil prices are a symptom of economic and monetary imbalances, not just a consequence of OPEC decisions. Throughout history, we have seen how OPEC cuts have done little to elevate prices when diversification and technology added to rising efficiency. Likewise, OPEC output increases do not necessarily mean lower prices, let alone reasonable ones. OPEC helps but does not solve price issues even if they would probably like to.

The problem in the oil market has been created by years of massive capital misallocation and underinvestment in energy created by extremely loose monetary policies directed by governments that have penalised capital expenditure on fossil fuels for ideological reasons.

Misguided activism and political nudging in the middle of massive monetary injections have created massive bottlenecks and underinvestment that hinder both security of supply and a technically feasible competitive energy transition.

Massive injections of liquidity have caused a double side effect.

Rising malinvestment in non-productive activities and now, a large inflow of capital into so-called “value” areas: More money directed to relatively scarce assets. Energy has gone from a consensus underweight to a large overweight, exacerbating the price increase. The marginal barrel of oil has risen almost 60% in a year despite supply rising in tandem with demand.

According to JP Morgan, the required capital expenditure in energy required to meet demand is $600 billion for the period 2021-2030. This “cumulative missing capex” is part of the problem.

The other important problem is artificial demand created by chains of stimulus plans. As we explained in this column, adding enormous energy-intensive infrastructure plans to a re-opening economy where some supply bottlenecks have been worsened generates the same effect on energy prices as a huge speculative bubble.

Political intervention has also created an important price impact on the marginal barrel of oil. Threatening to ban domestic development of energy resources in the United States or announcing the prohibition of fossil fuel investment in some European summits makes the net present value of the long-term marginal barrel higher, not lower. Why? Because those threats are not made with sound technical analysis and robust supply and demand estimates, but with political agendas. Any serious engineer that understands the importance of security and supply and technology development understands that a successful energy transition to a greener economy requires solid and realistic targets and policies that avoid an energy crisis. Those have been forgotten.

OPEC is benefitting from high oil prices but not as much as one would think. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) has $68.33/barrel year-to-date, a large 68.4% increase over the same period last year, but still massively below the elevated levels prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, OPEC and non-OPEC supply have risen in tandem with demand. Global liquids production in October increased by 1.74 mb/d to average 97.56 mb/d compared with the previous month. The US liquids production growth forecast for 2021 has been revised up by 19 tb/d and expected to be 17.57 million barrels/day in 2021. Imagine where oil and gas prices would be if the political threats to ban or severely penalize domestic production would have been enforced.

Let us not forget that OPEC has also revised down the estimates of global oil demand to 96.4 million barrels a day in 2021. Supply remains ample and the United States administration should also see that Russia and the US are expected to be the main drivers of next year’s supply growth. Without Russia and the US production prices would soar no matter what OPEC partners or Saudi Arabia alone do.

We are suffering the combination of misguided energy policies, excessive money creation and ill-timed giant construction plans. OPEC and its partner Russia may alleviate this, but not change it dramatically. Furthermore, as time passes and underinvestment becomes more severe, OPEC’s ability to curb prices weakens. We cannot forget that OPEC and Russia account for less than half of total world supply. They matter but putting two more million barrels a day of supply in the market does not solve the long-term price problem.

Energy prices will decline with more technology, investment and diversification, not empty political threats.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/15/2021 – 11:50

Author: Tyler Durden

Economics

Inflation Never Mattered Much For Crypto… Until About A Year Ago

Inflation Never Mattered Much For Crypto… Until About A Year Ago

Inflation never mattered much for crypto… until about a year ago.

As…

Inflation Never Mattered Much For Crypto… Until About A Year Ago

Inflation never mattered much for crypto… until about a year ago.

As UBS notes in its latest Crypto Keys note last week, forward-looking measures of US consumer prices today rank among the most prominent correlations for digital assets…

…. something we first pointed out a month ago.

Sensitivity to actual data prints is also mounting accordingly…

… and as UBS notes, BTC, ETH and a range of more established tokens screen statistically on par with traditional instruments that are considered classic inflation winners or losers.

Co-movement is weaker for newer coins like BNB as well as ADA, SOL, DOT and AVAX, which have strongly outperformed in 2021, along with meme plays like DOGE. But to UBS that seems encouraging rather than surprising when idiosyncratic factors have clearly been driving their price action.

But while inflation clearly has be driving the top cryptocurrencies in the past year, the risk now according to UBS is that more powerful drivers will emerge to dislodge the status quo. Potential candidates could be things like stablecoin regulation, tighter exchange and account registration requirements reducing activity in CeFi and DeFi, and new restrictions on bank participation, all of which could be near-term negatives affecting market liquidity and activity but longer-term positives paving the way for institutional participation. While such things may sound crypto-specific, they mirror conditions that govern how conventional inflation hedging instruments behave. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 11/28/2021 – 19:00

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Hillary: “Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them”

Hillary: "Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them"

Via 21stCenturyWire.com,

This might be the longest-ever Thanksgiving…

Hillary: “Americans Just Don’t Appreciate What Joe Has Done For Them”

Via 21stCenturyWire.com,

This might be the longest-ever Thanksgiving weekend for Joe Biden. While he’s been enjoying a warm blanket and a hot cup of Ovaltine with his family in Nantucket, the President’s poll numbers have been in virtual free-fall. It seems that the nation is fast losing confidence in his ability to handle important issues like the economy, the border, foreign policy and crime running wild on America’s streets. In short, the majority of Americans, both Democrat and Republican, do not believe Joe is capable of fulfilling his duties as the chief executive of the world’s premier superpower.

At present, Biden’s average job approval rating stands at around 40%, a steep drop from the 55% percent average approval rating he enjoyed last May.

No one really knows just how low Joe will go.

Still, this hasn’t stopped his ardent allies from rushing to his defense, and blaming his flagging numbers on social media trolls (see deplorables).

Carlos Garcia from The Blaze writes…

Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton tried to explain away President Joe Biden’s poor polling by accusing Americans of not appreciating what Biden has done for them, and blamed social media.

Clinton made the comments while a guest on Rachel Maddow’s MSNBC show Tuesday evening.

“You know, democracy is messy. You know, a lot of people got, oh I think, kind of frustrated looking at the messy process of legislation,” said Clinton.

“And they didn’t really appreciate that, within a year, the Biden administration has passed two major pieces of legislation through both the House and the Senate, they passed another major piece through the House that will be soon be in the Senate,” she continued.

“By any measure those are extraordinary accomplishments and they really will help many millions of Americans with healthcare and prescription drug prices, as well as climate change and so much else,” said Clinton.

“But because of the way we are getting our information today,” she concluded, “and because of the lack of gatekeepers and people who have a historic perspective who can help us understand what we are seeing, there is a real vulnerability in the electorate to the kind of demagoguery and disinformation that, unfortunately, the other side is really good at exploiting.”

Both Maddow and Clinton accused Republicans of undermining the results of fair elections and calling for violence as a political solution in the interview.

Biden’s poll numbers have suffered greatly after a cascade of damaging incidents plaguing his administration. Among the worst were the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, the painful cost of high inflation, and the crisis of illegal immigration at the border.

One poll from October found that only 38% of Americans thought Biden deserved a positive job rating.

Watch Hillary’s clip here: 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 11/28/2021 – 17:30

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Silver price under pressure despite the risk-off sentiment

Silver price extended the week’s losses in Friday’s session despite the risk-off market sentiment. In the coming week, focus will be on Fed policymakers’…

Silver price extended the week’s losses in Friday’s session despite the risk-off market sentiment. In the coming week, focus will be on Fed policymakers’ remarks and data related to its industrial and precious metal status.

Market mood

The fear & greed index shifted from a greed level of 64 to the fear end of the spectrum. On Friday, the index’s reading was at 31. Both the market volatility and safe-haven demand are exhibiting extreme fear. Usually, risk aversion boosts precious metals based on their safe-haven status.

However, a strengthening US dollar is exerting pressure on silver price. Concerns over the new wave of COVID-19, coupled with positive economic data from the US, boosted the dollar index to its highest level since July 2020. Besides, slowed growth of the Chinese economy has raised concerns over silver’s industrial demand.

In the new week, silver price will be reacting to manufacturing PMI from China and other economies. Besides, investors will be keen on Jerome Powell’s testimony as well as speeches from various Fed policymakers. The speeches come a few days after Fed meeting minutes that exuded a hawkish tone. The nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for Friday will further influence the metal’s price movements.

Silver price technical outlook

Silver price has been under pressure over the past week. The week’s losses defined a trend reversal after the precious metal hit a four-month high in the previous week. Since Monday, it has dropped by about 6.89%.

The precious metal ended the week at 23.17; down by 1.83%. On a four-hour chart, it is trading below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. Besides, with an RSI of 26, it is in the overbought territory.

In the coming week, I expect silver price to remain under pressure amid the strengthening US dollar. However, it may begin the week on a corrective rebound as it finds support along the psychological level of 23.00.

It may bounce back to find resistance along the 25-day EMA at 23.72. Subsequently, it may trade within the formed horizontal channel with 23.16 and 23.72 as the lower and upper borders respectively. Above the aforementioned resistance level, the bulls will be eyeing the 50-day EMA at 24.03. On the flip side, a move below Friday’s low of 22.94 will likely place the support zone at 22.35.

silver price
silver price

The post Silver price under pressure despite the risk-off sentiment appeared first on Invezz.





Author: Faith Maina

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