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Peter Schiff: What Taper? Ultimately The Fed Will Expand QE

Peter Schiff: What Taper? Ultimately The Fed Will Expand QE

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust to talk…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge
Peter Schiff: What Taper? Ultimately The Fed Will Expand QE

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust to talk about Fed monetary policy and the possibility of a taper. He said even if the Fed does slow asset purchases, the taper won’t last long. Ultimately, the Fed will expand QE.

Despite the disappointing August jobs report, the conventional wisdom is that a recovery in hiring along with record job openings indicates the economy has recovered. Peter said he doesn’t think the economy has recovered from anything.

I think it’s still very sick and having nothing to do with COVID. I think all that happened is the government printed a bunch of money, or the Fed printed the money, and the government mailed out the checks, and everybody went on a spending binge.”

All of that consumer spending pumped up GDP numbers. But as Peter pointed out, it’s also the reason we’ve seen huge price increases.

It’s the inflation that the Federal Reserve has created.”

Peter also noted that we’re still seeing a lot of unemployment claims. They’re just not as high as they were last year.

And a lot of people just don’t want to work anymore. The government has made people a better deal. A lot of people find it’s more lucrative to take a vacation than to show up for work.”

Despite talk of tapering quantitative easing, the Fed hasn’t given a timeline or any concrete details of what it might look like. As Peter noted after Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, if the plan was to taper, Powell had every opportunity to clarify that intention. At this point, the Fed is just making excuses.

It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper. And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process. Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”

Fed policy has juiced the stock market to record levels. Some worry a taper could crash the market. But should the Fed be concerned with that? Peter said technically, it shouldn’t.

But remember, these guys think that the economy lives or dies by the market. Remember, their whole goal in QE was to create a wealth effect. They thought if they could make the stock market go up, we’d all feel wealthier, and then, somehow, we’d spend more money. And so they’re kind of wedded to this philosophy, so whenever the stock market starts to go down, they start to fear a reverse wealth effect, and so they start printing money.”

The Fed isn’t just propping up the stock market.

It’s this whole bubble economy that they’re filling up with air. But by doing this, they’re actually undermining legitimate economic growth and they’re making everybody poor.”

So, how close are we to the bubble bursting?

Peter said if the Fed did the right thing, it would certainly precipitate a financial crisis. And that’s exactly why the Fed won’t do the right thing.

That’s why they keep kicking the can down the road because they want to delay that crisis as long as possible. But the longer they delay it, the worse it’s going to be because the only way to delay it is to make the bubble bigger. And the bigger the bubble is, the worse the fallout when it pops.”

One of the anchors noted that inflation recently hit a 13-year high in Germany and Germans are loading up on physical gold. Peter said there is a lot more inflation to hedge and people should be worried about it. Of course, the Germans are particularly sensitive to rising prices given the hyperinflation they experienced during the Weimar Republic. But Peter said inflation is going to be a problem worldwide.

Central banks around the world are printing too much money. They’re keeping interest rates artificially low. And so, inflation is a worldwide problem. But it’s going to be particularly acute here in the United States. We’re creating more inflation than most, and we are more dependent than any other country on the value of our currency to fund our imports because we can’t produce the goods that we consume. And so, we have to trade the money that we print for the stuff everybody else makes. And so, as the value of our money is going down, we’re going to really feel the pain of inflation to a much greater degree as the dollar falls and the cost of those imports go through the roof.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/07/2021 - 13:22

Precious Metals

Is Silver a good buy in October 2021?

Silver extended its correction from the recent highs above $24, and we could see even lower prices in the weeks ahead if the U.S. dollar remains strong….

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Silver extended its correction from the recent highs above $24, and we could see even lower prices in the weeks ahead if the U.S. dollar remains strong. The demand for the dollar continues to grow, although it remained below its weekly high of 0.86 compared to the euro.

Fundamental analysis: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates could rise quicker than expected

Since the beginning of September, the silver price has weakened more than 5% and reached the price levels that we had seen in November 2020. The U.S. central bank reported on Wednesday it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November 2021, which positively influenced the U.S. dollar, and the most significant force behind the silver price slide is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar.

“The U.S. central bank is preparing the ground to possibly begin dialing back some of the extraordinary support it has given the economy during the pandemic. The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve switched to a more hawkish tone, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates could rise quicker than expected by next year. Jerome Powell also said that Fed achieved its goal on inflation, while more than half of Fed members believe that the economy reached the employment goal.

The global business activity is recovering, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August, and the rapid price increases are also a reason to begin raising rates. The prospect of interest rate hikes positively influences the U.S. dollar, and those whose interest is to invest in precious metals like Silver should have the U.S. dollar on their “watch list.”

Technical analysis: $20 represents a strong support level

Those whose interest is to invest in commodities like Silver should consider that the risk of further decline is still not over.

Data source: tradingview.com

The important support level currently stands at $20, and if the price falls below this level, it would be a firm “sell” signal. The next price target could be around $18 or even below.

On the other side, if the price jumps above $25, it would be a signal to trade Silver, and we have the open way to $27.

Summary

Silver price remains under pressure after the U.S. central bank reported that it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November. The most important driving force behind the price slide is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, and investors will continue to pay attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve comments.

The post Is Silver a good buy in October 2021? appeared first on Invezz.

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Economics

Market-Based Indicators of Inflation, Growth and Risk

Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained. Figure 1: Top panel: Five…

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Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.

Figure 1: Top panel: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium per DKW (red), all in %. Middle panel: 10 year-3 month Treasury spread (blue), 10 year-2 year Treasury spread (red), both in %. Bottom panel: VIX (teal, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty, 7 day centered moving average (salmon, right scale).  NBER defined recession dates shaded gray (from beginning of month after peak month to end of trough month). Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, KWW following D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) , FRED, policyuncertainty.com, NBER and author’s calculations.

The top panel of Figure 1 shows that the standard breakeven for 5 year horizon has stabilized; the adjusted for inflation risk premium/liquidity premium indicator was also stable at end-August, indicating 1.18% inflation on average.

Expectations as proxied by term spreads suggest that growth trends bottomed out in mid-July, after peaking in mid-March. They’re now rising slightly over the last two weeks.

Finally, a market based measure of risk (the VIX) has is relatively quiescent. So too is the newspaper account based Baker-Bloom-Davis measure of policy uncertainty. This is true despite the rising political uncertainty regarding passage of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills, and more importantly, the raising of the debt ceiling. Credit spreads have also failed (so far) to evidence much reaction:

Notes: The ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of investment grade bonds BB and below, and a spot Treasury curve.  Source: FRED, accessed 9/25/2021.

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Economics

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Central bank digital currencies…

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Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Central bank digital currencies are on the way. The German Central Bank just embraced a digital euro. Let's discuss the risks...

Fintech and Global Payments

 Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank gave the opening speech at the digital conference “Fintech and the global payments landscape – exploring new horizons

Exploring a Digital Euro

The title of Weidmann speech was Exploring a Digital Euro

Emphasis mine with my thoughts in braces [ ]

Paper money, for instance, was first introduced in China about a thousand years ago. This innovation eventually transformed the payments system. Today, digitalisation is on the cusp of overhauling payments.

Central banks have to work out how to respond to this challenge. One possibility is the issuing of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). According to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the share of central banks conducting work on CBDC for general or wholesale use rose to 86% last year. Many of them have made significant progress.

Two months ago, the Eurosystem launched a project to investigate key questions regarding the design of a CBDC for the euro area. The aim of the investigation is to prepare us for the potential launch of a digital euro. Experiments have already shown that, in principle, a digital euro is feasible using existing technologies.

As my ECB colleague Fabio Panetta has stressed, a digital euro would have “no liquidity risk, no credit risk, no market risk,” in this way resembling cash.

[No Risk? Really] 

The protection of privacy would thus be a key priority in terms of maintaining people’s trust. European data protection rules would have to be complied with. Nevertheless, a digital euro would not be as anonymous as cash. In order to prevent illicit activities such as money laundering or terrorist financing, legitimate authorities would have to be able to trace transactions in individual, justified cases.

[Every Case]

But designing CBDC involves curbing its risks. In order to prevent excessive withdrawals of bank deposits, it has been suggested that a cap be placed on the amount of digital euro that each individual can hold. Or that digital euro holdings in excess of a certain limit could be rendered unattractive by applying a penalty interest rate.

[No Risk? I thought you said there was no risk.]

If a digital euro were accessible for non-residents, this could impact on capital flows and euro exchange rates. What this calls for is international and multilateral collaboration.

[Wait a second, is this another risk?]

Self-reinforcing loops and “lock-in” effects may tie users to one platform and exclude competitors. Some observers have been reminded of “Hotel California”, the famous song by the American rock band “The Eagles”: it’s such a lovely place, with plenty of room; but once inside you can never leave.

[Hotel Central Bank: Once inside you can never leave.]

The Eurosystem has no commercial interest in user data or behaviour. A digital euro could therefore help to safeguard what has always been the essence of money: trust.

[Ah yes, trust that interest rates won't go even more negative, money won't expire, and withdrawals won't be capped].

Central banks need to be at the cutting edge of technology. Otherwise, they cannot provide the backbone of payment systems and offer safe and trusted money for the digital age.

This has prompted all major central banks to start exploring issuance of CBDC. However, our success as a money creator will depend not so much on speed, but on the trust of those who are supposed to use the money.

Europe Moving Ahead

It appears Europe is moving ahead faster than the Fed. 

The risks are obvious.

  • Expiring Money

  • Increasingly Negative Interest Rates

  • Withdrawals Capped

  • Withdrawals Taxed 

  • Gifts Taxed

And once inside you can never leave. 

Livin' it up at the Hotel Fedifornia has a nice ring to it. ECBifornia isn't as catchy. 

* * *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 13:00
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