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The Bulls Have The Ball And Are Running For The 50-dma

After Wednesday’s impressive rebound the bulls are regaining confidence and attempted a run for the 50-dma yesterday. With control back in their hands,…

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This article was originally published by Real Investment Advice

After Wednesday’s impressive rebound the bulls are regaining confidence and attempted a run for the 50-dma yesterday. With control back in their hands, the first big test will be getting the ball past the 50-dma for an attempt at the “end zone” of all-time highs. The bears will likely set us a strong defensive front at the 50-dma, leading to a battle royale for market control in the coming days. Today’s BLS unemployment report may play a big role in picking the winner of this battle.

This morning futures are flattish (at the time of this writing) as we await the employment report at 7:30 am this morning. Will the report be strong enough to cement the Fed’s “taper” decision in November? Or, will a weak report potentially put a pause on the reduction of liquidity? For the markets, this could be bad news is good news if a poor jobs report keeps the “punch bowl” full.


What To Watch Today

Economy

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Change in non-farm payrolls, September (500,000 expected, 235,000 in August)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Unemployment rate, September (5.1% expected, 5.2% in August)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% in August)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, September (4.6% expected, 4.3% in August)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Labor force participation rate, September (61.7% in August)
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August final (1.2% expected, 1.2% in prior estimate)

Earnings

  • No notable reports scheduled for release

Politics

Courtesy of Yahoo

A Run For The 50-dma

As noted, the market cleared the all-important hurdle of the 100-dma resistance level yesterday and made an initial attempt at the 50-dma. However, such proved to be “too far, too fast” for the bulls. The key is with the markets not yet overbought, and the MACD signal still on a sell signal, but improving, that the 100-dma holds and becomes support.

With earnings season approaching, the bulls have their work cut out for them. Risk is elevated, so we still consider this rally a counter-trend bounce until the 50-dma is taken out.

The concerns over the next several months are several.

  1. Economic growth is slowing fast.
  2. Earnings and revenue are tied to economic growth which puts equities at risk.
  3. The fiscal drag is become much more prevalent.

“Inflation” is Coming Next Week

The graph below, courtesy of the Market Ear, shows how mentions of inflation are a hot topic for earnings calls. As we gear up for another round of earnings releases starting in earnest next week, there is little doubt the number of “inflation” mentions will increase further. The question facing shareholders is how well can companies deal with inflation? Can they take advantage of higher prices or will they negatively impact profit margins? Each company and industry has different factors to consider that will help answer those questions.

From a macro perspective, we will also learn a  good deal about expectations for continued inflation in the coming quarters. The Fed speaks with executives at many large companies, so this information will also help us better assess our outlook on the potential pace at which the Fed tapers QE.

Jobless Claims

Following yesterday’s strong ADP report, the labor market showed more improvement.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell back toward a post-covid low of 326K. This was below expectations of 348k and well below last week’s 364k.

Market Rise On Debt Ceiling Increase

St. Louis Fed Expects an Ugly Jobs Report While JPM is Optimistic

Per Market News (MNI), the St. Louis Federal Reserve expects to see an 818k decline in tomorrow’s BLS payrolls report. St. Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin states: “There’s still “a lot of uncertainty around these figures,” but the model has tracked actual CPS employment “quite well” through the summer, he said.” He blames the recent uptick in Covid cases and the impact on global supply lines. The current forecast is for a gain of 410k jobs. If the Fed’s forecast is proven correct the Fed might delay what appears to be a tapering announcement in early November.

On the other hand, JP Morgan is optimistic “we are looking for a 575,000 gain in jobs and a drop in the US unemployment rate to 5%. The driver for an above-consensus forecast is the expected rebound in the leisure and hospitality sectors.”

Our expectations are roughly in line with JPM in that we will see a seasonal adjustment boost to the employment report which could make it look stronger than reality.

Retail Inventories are Low

Price pressures, especially on retail goods, will likely continue into the holiday season. The graph below shows the ratio of Retailers’ inventories to sales is at a 25+ year low and well below pre-pandemic levels. Given there appears to be little let-up in supply line problems, it’s becoming increasingly probably that many retailers will not be able to fully stock their shelves to meet the heavy demand for Christmas presents. With, the limited inventory we suspect many stores, both online and brick and mortar, will be able to raise prices over the next few months.

The post The Bulls Have The Ball And Are Running For The 50-dma appeared first on RIA.




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Economics

The Gaslighting Of America

The Gaslighting Of America

Authored by Bob Weir via AmericanThinker.com,

I remember a comedy skit several years ago in which a woman comes…

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The Gaslighting Of America

Authored by Bob Weir via AmericanThinker.com,

I remember a comedy skit several years ago in which a woman comes home unexpectedly and finds her husband in bed with another woman.  Shocked, she demands to know who the woman is and why her husband is doing this.  The couple get out of bed and start getting dressed as the man says to his wife, “Honey, what are you talking about?” The wife, perplexed at the question, says, “I’m talking about that woman!”  Meanwhile, the other woman, now fully dressed, heads for the door.  The husband says, “What woman?  Honey, are you feeling okay?  There’s no woman here.”  Feeling dazed and confused, the wife begins to question her own sanity.

That’s a pretty good example of what the Biden administration is pulling on the psyche of the American people.  

What they’re doing is not merely “spin,” which has become SOP whenever a political party does a clever sales job on the public in order to keep certain facts from them.  No, this is much more than shrewd marketing; this is blatantly lying in the public’s face and telling them they’re crazy if they believe their own eyes.  

When we look at videos showing thousands of migrants coming across our southern border with impunity, while Biden and his cohorts tell us they have the situation under control, we’re being gaslighted.

When thousands of Americans and Afghan allies are abandoned to be tortured and killed by Taliban terrorists, while Biden’s press secretary, Jen Psaki, tells us the war ended successfully, we’re being told not to believe what we’re seeing.  

President Trump made our country energy independent, only to have his success overturned by Biden on day one of Biden’s presidency.  That forced our country to once again be dependent on foreign oil.  Biden said his action would help protect the environment.  We scratch our heads and wonder how it makes sense to ship millions of barrels of oil on cargo ships from thousands of miles away, only to be used the same way it was used when it was processed here.  

Does foreign oil have less environmental effect than American oil?

When Biden proposes a $3.5-billion “infrastructure bill” that is heavily weighted toward social engineering and radical “Green New Deal” initiatives, we’re told that everything is infrastructure.  

We’re also told that the massive spending bill will cost “zero dollars” because the new taxes will be assessed only on the wealthy.  

Then, to add more consternation to a public getting groggy trying to keep up with twelve-digit numbers, Biden and his accomplices want another $80 billion for the IRS so its agents can check into every bank account that has transfers of $600 or more.  As if the IRS weren’t already a liberty-crushing organization, Biden wants to provide it with more ammo to use against those who oppose him.  Nevertheless, we’re told it’s going after only tax cheats.  Why would these people need $80 billion more to do what they’ve always done?  Don’t ask, lest you get audited for questions they don’t want asked.

When the supply chain of cargo ships, carrying about a half-million shipping containers filled with goods from all around the globe, are stalled in the waters outside major American port cities, we’re told by White House chief of staff Ron Klain that it’s just “high-class problems.”  

In other words, only the wealthy are waiting for the goods to arrive at stores.  Moreover, Jen Psaki mocks it as the “tragedy of the treadmill that’s delayed” — another elitist poking fun at the reasonable expectations coming from the working class.

The list of gaslighting incidents is growing longer than Pinocchio’s nose. 

Each time we are faced with another destructive lie, our attention is diverted to the latest Trump investigation or the probe of one of his supporters.  Keeping the January 6 imbroglio alive is one of those diversions.  The radical left has come to power by a sinister display of distractions from reality.  A major part of that distraction is using accusations of racism to muzzle opposition.  Most people will cower in fear of such labeling, even when they know in their hearts it’s not true.  That’s precisely what makes the accusations so useful to those who seek power through intimidation and distortion of reality.  

President Trump called out situations for what they are, without the odious and murky filtration of political correctness.  That’s why the entrenched powers of Deep State corruption despised him.  

Now we’re stuck with a president who says “what inflation?” as we pay higher prices than ever at the gas pump and the supermarket.  I seriously doubt that shoppers are questioning that reality.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/25/2021 – 21:10

Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

The U.S. Budget Deficit

#CKStrong The U.S. Treasury findly released their monthly statement on Friday, which closed the books on the government’s 2021 fiscal year (October to…

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#CKStrong

The U.S. Treasury findly released their monthly statement on Friday, which closed the books on the government’s 2021 fiscal year (October to September).  The deficit came in at $2.8 trillion (12.0 percent of GDP, based on our Q3 GDP estimate) , a bit lower than FY 2020’s $3.1 trillion (14.8 percent of GDP).  Those are some massive deficits, folks. 

 

U.S. Deficit Larger Than 95 Percent Of Global Economies

In fact, the FY 2021 deficit was larger than Italy and Canada’s economy, bigger than 185 of the 192 country economies in the lastest IMF database.  Take a look at the peak 12-month deficit of $4.1 trillion in March.  The March deficit would have made the G5. 

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is usg_deficit_3.png

Financing The COVID Deficit

How can the U.S. Treasury finance $5 trillion in borrowing over the past 18-months without spiking global interest rates, crowding out investment and other asset markets, and tanking asset prices?   They can’t.  

The table below breaks down the financing in several different measures.  Check it out.

The bottom line is that 23 percent of the COVID deficit borrowing has been financed by an increase in Treasury bill issuance, easy given the mass excess liquidty on the short-end where the Fed is soaking up over a trillion with overnight reverse repos in order to keep short-term rates postives.  Most of that liquidity, by the way, was created from QE.   

Of the remaining $4.1 trillion of non T-Bill debt issuance, 75 percent was taken down by the Fed, albeit indirectly.   

No Judgement

There you have have it, folks, T-Bills and the Fed have financed the bulk of the COVID deficit and debt buildup.   No judgment, but policymakers are now going to have engineer a soft landing in the economy and asset markets as we approach a fiscal cliff to normalize the budget deficit and tighten up monetary policy. 

We are not throwing stones as they saved the world from a global economic castasophe.

We do criticize their continued irresponsible policies as inflation rages and stagflation sets in.  It’s not wise, in our experience, to try and monetize supply shocks.  We learned that hard and painful lesson by doing so with the OPEC oil shocks.  

Narrow window for a soft landing.  Stay tuned. 

Email us or comment if you have questions.  








Author: macromon

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Economics

An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash…

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Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential. So said all in the media, opinions written for everyone in it by none other than central bank models.

It was going to be awesome.

Straight away, however, right from the very start of 2018 there were an increasing number (and intensity) of warning signs. Flat curves were a big one – which then later inverted. In global economic data, crucial contradictions were purveyed by Japan and Germany.

In other words, taking cues from those three – Japanese and German conditions augmented by consistent contortions in the US Treasury yield curve – before we even got to the end of 2018, while the mainstream narrative prevailed unopposed with Jay Powell still hiking rates, we said very differently. Here’s early November 2018, with already negative GDP in both those places:

This year is proving to be a trainwreck in too many important places. It was supposed to be the arrival of worldwide recovery. Worse, too many arrows are still pointing down for 2019. But you wouldn’t know it from the Bank of Japan, ECB, Federal Reserve, etc. Not until they are forced into some honest assessments for once.

Heads in the sands (or another orifice, if you prefer), “tightening” became the preferred if only option across the globe. The Fed, the ECB, others around the world rushed to get ahead of the (imagined) inflationary pressures “everyone” said were on the cusp.

Just a few months further on, March 2019, everything had already changed though it would take many more months for the stunned mainstream to even begin appreciating all the roughness.

As is standard practice, when weak data began showing up last year it was attributed to anything, everything else. Europe was downright booming, they said, so there was no possible way for a macro negative scenario…Europe isn’t the only place where manufacturing declines are showing up. Just as Germany is a bellwether for global trade and therefore global economy, Japan is in very much the same situation. Export-oriented, if Japan Inc. isn’t making new goods that’s because the rest of the world isn’t demanding them.

Germany. Japan. Yield curve. Twenty-eighteen.

Twenty twenty-one?

Germany:

Japan:


Yield curve:

Germany and Japan the economic bellwethers for the whole global economy (the importance of trade at the margins) along with the Treasury curve reacting to, and forecasting ahead from, the real global economy’s interior and insides. Economists are, by contrast, so removed from the realities of real-time facts so as to be modern day astrologers making claims based on little more than specious privileges.

Germany or Japan struggling isn’t really about Japan or Germany; nor the UST curve specific to US and Treasury. With a massive overflow of goods heading toward especially the US, however warehoused on the way, as I wrote earlier today, what might this trio bode with regard to the direction for future demand?

Many companies have claimed they are absolutely ready for “too many goods”, believing both their newfound penchant for individual supply chains as well as logistical consulting to manage more than ever. This so long as demand doesn’t “unexpectedly” fall off, even a little, which then might trigger the downside of the inventory cycle.

Three years ago, these three indications taken together were keen warning signs how demand was about to and would fall off “unexpectedly” (if it hadn’t already). And these ended up being highly accurate measures of the global economic direction that were completely, utterly contrary to the surefire, guaranteed inflation/recovery/BOND ROUT!!! no one ever challenged.

Is this time different? Hope so, but history keeps repeating because no one ever explains what happened last time. And the time before. And the time before. And…






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