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Nio Represents Good Value Given Its Recent Results

Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) recently released excellent second-quarter financial results on August 11, making NIO stock look very undervalued. I believe that NIO…

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Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) recently released excellent second-quarter financial results on August 11, making NIO stock look very undervalued. I believe that NIO stock is worth at least $45.68 or over 19% higher than Sept. 13’s price of $38.39.

Source: Robert Way / Shutterstock.com

NIO stock has had a difficult year so far. It ended 2020 at $48.74 and is now down 20% year-to-date (YTD). In fact, Nio stock peaked at $62.84 on Feb. 9 and it drifted down to a low of $31.22 on May 13. Since then it has floated up almost 23% to $38.39 on Sept. 13. But as I say, I think it can go much higher.

Nio’s Q2 Financial Results

Nio’s electric vehicle (EV) deliveries were up 111.9% over Q2 2020 and up 9.2% over Q1 2021. At that quarterly pace over the next 12 months, on a compound basis, its deliveries will be up 42.2% year-over-year (YOY) in one year. This implies a potential slowing of its growth rate, but that might also be expected given its higher base now.

Its gross margin fell to 18.6%, up from last year, but it was down from 19.5% in Q1. Moreover, the company is still booking losses. Its loss from operations was negative $118.2 million and its net income loss was negative $90.9 million.

So far analysts do not expect the company to make any profits until 2023, at least according to Seeking Alpha.

Valuing Nio Using Price-to-Sales

As a result, the best way to value NIO stock is to use a price-to-sale (P/S) methodology. For example, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has a P/S multiple of 14.5 times sales for 2021 and 10.7 times for 2022. This is much higher than Nio’s multiples. NIO stock trades at 7.6 times 2021 sales and just 4.6 times 2022 revenue forecasts.

Granted, Nio should probably have a lower P/S multiple, given that it is not yet profitable. But, as I pointed out last month, its sales are growing faster than Tesla. As SeekingAlpha projects, Nio’s 2022 sales of $9.36 billion vs. $5.62 billion this year shows a 66.5% gain next year. Tesla’s sales are forecast to grow 35% from $50.33 billion to $68 billion in 2022.

So, if we gave it a 25% haircut from Tesla’s P/S ratios, NIO stock should trade at 10.875 times 2021 sales and 8 times 2022 forecasts. For example, Nio’s target value should be $61.118 billion for this year (close to today’s $62.9 billion market value).

And using a multiple of 8 times 2022 forecast sales of $9.36 billion results in a target market value of $74.88 billion. That represents a potential upside of 19% over today’s market value.

Therefore, NIO stock is worth $45.68 per share, up 19% from today’s price.

What To Do With NIO Stock

Analysts are generally very positive on NIO stock. For example, TipRanks indicates that 6 Wall Street analysts that have written on the stock in the last 3 months have a $67.52 average price target. This is 75% over today’s price of $38.39.

Moreover, Yahoo! Finance, which uses Refinitiv analyst survey data, reports that 18 analysts have an average price of $60.25. This is over 56% higher than today’s price. Lastly, Seeking Alpha reports that 22 Wall Street analysts have an average price target of $61.55, or over 60% higher.

In other words, my projection for a 19% gain is probably too low, given what analysts are saying. But until the company is able to move in profit status, NIO stock will likely have a lower multiple than Tesla.

As a result, now might be a good time to begin taking a small stake in NIO stock. You might have to average cost down into the shares, as profits are not forecast to occur until 2023.

As I wrote last month, some of its valuation discount could also be due to the fact that Nio is a Chinese stock. They are on sale lately, especially given the Chinese government’s crackdown on technology stocks. Over time, this is likely to ease, and with it, the stock price. Until then, investors can rely on our minimum estimate that NIO stock is worth 19% more or $45.68 per share.

On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold any position in any of the securities mentioned in the article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.

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Energy & Critical Metals

Rooftop solar remains untapped yet crucial for energy transition – BNEF

The global market for rooftop solar energy remains untapped yet is crucial for the world to achieve 2050 net-zero targets, say BloombergNEF and Schneider…

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The global market for rooftop solar energy remains untapped yet is crucial for the world to achieve 2050 net-zero targets, according to a new report released by BloombergNEF and Schneider Electric.

The report, Realising the Potential of Customer-Sited Solar, states that there is a need for careful policy design to unlock the full potential of the market.

With the right regulation and tariff design in place, the rooftop solar market has the ability to exceed 2,000GW and enable the deployment of 1,000 GWh of energy storage by 2050.

The market has the ability to power 167 million households and 23 million businesses across the globe if fully optimised, according to the study.

In addition to ensuring consumers play their part in the decarbonisation of the economy, the rooftop solar market provides economical returns for hosting sites, creates employment and reduces peak demand.

Have you read?
Consumer rooftop PV transforming Australia’s electricity market
Net-zero targets to triple Asia Pacific’s solar PV capacity by 2030

According to the report, Australia is an example of where the market has returned favorable benefits to prosumers in less than 10 years since 2013 when rollout began.

Australia has managed to add 2.3GW of rooftop solar capacity for residential customers in 2020, a move taking the country closer to decarbonisation goals, says the report.

Vincent Petit, Head of the Schneider Electric TM Sustainability Research Institute, said: “Customer-sited solar is a huge opportunity that’s often completely overlooked. Thanks to falling costs and policy measures, it’s already being rapidly deployed in some markets. Its massive scale-up is very likely.”

Recommendations to expand the market include:

  • Governments and project developers to ensure programmes create economic cases for households and businesses investing in the technology. Incentives is one way to encourage adoption. France which has introduced incentives has recorded a 500MW increase in installations in 2020, according to the study.
  • A key consideration at the early stage of market development is to avoid an unsustainable boom. Policy designs should account for the fact that solar costs will continue to fall over time, and moderate support to reflect these changing dynamics.
  • Add solar during construction of new buildings to reduce so-called ‘soft costs’, such as marketing and sales costs, as well as labor and construction costs.
  • Combine solar with energy storage to expand flexible energy capacity. Coupling solar with energy storage enables solar energy plants to be optimised in performance. Energy storage allows electricity generated during times when generation is high to be used when generation is low and demand high.

Yayoi Sekine, BNEF’s Head of Decentralized Energy, adds: “The evolution of customer-sited solar is to add some form of flexibility, which has the ability to unlock a much higher penetration of solar.

“The most obvious form of flexibility is batteries, but energy storage will come in many forms, including shifting demand and using electric vehicles.”

To encourage the development of solar-plus-storage projects, the report calls for the introduction of favorable export rates, time-of-use retail electricity rates, payments for storage to provide grid services and the implementation of demand charges.

Find out more about the report.

The post Rooftop solar remains untapped yet crucial for energy transition – BNEF appeared first on Power Engineering International.

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Energy & Critical Metals

ServiceNow Collaborates with Infosys to Digitize Operations

Digital workflow company ServiceNow (NOW) has teamed up with its longstanding partner Infosys (INFY), the Indian multinational information technology company,…

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Digital workflow company ServiceNow (NOW) has teamed up with its longstanding partner Infosys (INFY), the Indian multinational information technology company, to provide enterprise-level service management (ESM) for manufacturing customers, helping them with their digital transformation.

Shares of ServiceNow, with a current market capitalization of around $130 billion have gained nearly 39% over the past year. (See ServiceNow stock charts on TipRanks)

The combination of ServiceNow Operations Technology Management (OTM) with Infosys Cobalt cloud blueprints will enable the digitization of factories, floors, and plant operations for the energy and retail sectors, as well as other manufacturing industries.

Binoy Gosalia, Global Head of Industry Partnerships at ServiceNow commented, “Speed and agility are critical for maintaining OT security. Infosys Cobalt's Enterprise Service Management Café accelerates its manufacturing clients' ServiceNow journey with an AI-powered plug-and-play deployment solution. We look forward to our continued collaboration enabling manufacturers to navigate and succeed in today's rapidly changing environment.”

Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow recently increased the price target on ServiceNow from $667 to $784 (19.8% upside potential) and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.

Lenschow said in the coming months, investors will make 2023 their base year for valuations. With respect to software, he added, “with its high growth rates, this move is important as valuation levels often see a meaningful step down.”

Overall, the stock has a Strong Buy consensus based on 18 Buys and 2 Holds. The average ServiceNow price target of $667.21 implies a 2% upside potential.

According to TipRanks’ Smart Score rating system, ServiceNow scores a “Perfect 10,” suggesting that the stock is likely to outperform market averages.

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CVS Health Plans to Hire 25,000 in U.S.
HCA Healthcare Inks Deal to Buy Operations of Five Utah Hospitals

The post ServiceNow Collaborates with Infosys to Digitize Operations appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Energy & Critical Metals

Wait for ChargePoint Stock to Bottom Out Before Taking a Position

Down 42% year-to-date, ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) stock does not look worthy of investor’s money.
Source: JL IMAGES / Shutterstock.com
The largest manufacturer…

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Down 42% year-to-date, ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) stock does not look worthy of investor’s money.

Source: JL IMAGES / Shutterstock.com

The largest manufacturer of electric vehicle charging stations in the world looks good on paper, but so far its potential has not translated into success for shareholders.

ChargePoint went public earlier this year at the height of the frenzy over special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).

However, like many SPAC deals, CHPT stock has collapsed in the months since it made its market debut. Given the share price’s persistent weakness, shareholders might be best advised to cut their losses.

CHPT stock does seem to have gotten pulled down with the broader SPAC sector. After threats of greater regulation over the deals led Wall Street to cool on so-called “blank check” companies or “reverse mergers,” underlying fundamentals have also dragged down the company’s share price.

The company’s revenue for its fiscal 2021 year ended on Jan. 31 amounted to $146.5 million, only 1% higher than the $144.5 million in revenue it generated in the previous 2020 fiscal year.

Coming just months before it went public, the fiscal 2021 financial results led investors to sour on ChargePoint and its prospects, prompting a swift and deep sell-off.

While ChargePoint says it wants to sell its electric vehicle charging units to both commercial and retail customers, the reality is that the vast majority of its current revenue (75%) comes from commercial sales to businesses and office parks.

The general public remains slow to adopt electric vehicles with only about 2% of the vehicles on U.S. roads today being plug-in electric.

Electric vehicles are clearly the future of the automotive industry, but they have a long way to go to achieve mass adoption. Consumers continue to raise concerns ranging from slow charging times to limited driving range when it comes to electric cars, trucks and SUVs.

Lofty Goals and CHPT Stock

Despite its middling financial results and a slowing growing market, ChargePoint continues to have lofty goals and sets itself ambitious targets. Maybe too ambitious.

The company has set a target of achieving $1 billion in sales by 2025, a nearly 10 fold increase from its current sales in a little more than four years.

ChargePoint has also raised its full-year guidance for its current fiscal 2022 year to a range of $225 million to $235 million, which would represent 57% revenue growth over its previous fiscal year.

The second half of this year will need to be exceptionally strong for ChargePoint to reach its targets given that the company generated revenue of $97 million in the first six months of its current fiscal 2022 year.

The company did note in its most recent quarterly financial results that its residential segment saw sales grow by 79% on an annualized basis. This growth was powered by the increasing use of its charging stations at housing complexes across the U.S.

Hopefully, that growth will be sustained in the final months of this year, but it isn’t worth betting on.

Recent Acquisition

In August this year, ChargePoint announced that it is acquiring ViriCiti, a commercial fleet management provider. Acquiring ViriCiti will enable ChargePoint to sell its electric vehicle charging stations and related infrastructure to companies with major commercial fleets such as United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) and Waste Management (NYSE:WM).

It will also enable ChargePoint to go after lucrative government contracts as the shift to electric vehicles accelerates nationwide.

ChargePoint’s fleet segment is an area of strength for the company. In this year’s second quarter, the segment grew its sales by 187% year over year. The fleet segment has a lot of potential, but ChargePoint will have to demonstrate that it can grow that area of its business by winning competitive contracts and aligning itself with strategic partners.

ViriCiti is a step in the right direction as it will allow ChargePoint’s customers to monitor their operations data and gain valuable insights into their fleet’s performance.

Wait and See Where CHPT Goes

The electric vehicle market as a whole has cooled off this year with once high flying stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) slumping. While electric vehicle companies and their stocks have a bright future, that future remains off in the distance.

ChargePoint’s time is coming but it is not here quite yet. As such, investors should wait to see where the company’s stock bottoms before taking a position.

In the current environment, and with electric vehicle adoption slow to catch on, CHPT stock is not a buy.

Disclosure: On the date of publication, Joel Baglole did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Joel Baglole has been a business journalist for 20 years. He spent five years as a staff reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and has also written for The Washington Post and Toronto Star newspapers, as well as financial websites such as The Motley Fool and Investopedia.

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