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The Rise And Fall Of 9MM Ammo Prices During COVID; What’s Next?

The Rise And Fall Of 9MM Ammo Prices During COVID; What’s Next?

Op-Ed via The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).

The Machine Gun Nest has been open…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

The Rise And Fall Of 9MM Ammo Prices During COVID; What’s Next?

Op-Ed via The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).

The Machine Gun Nest has been open since 2015, but we’ve been in the firearms industry since 2013. Earlier than that, Rob (one of the owners) has been collecting guns since the early 2000s. We’ve seen panic buys, ammo prices fluctuate, and firearms banned and unbanned.

March of 2020. The COVID19 pandemic hits the United States. Many people (like myself) were aware of the situation in China and had time to prepare for the worst adequately. Many people were caught completely off guard.

Many things led to the recent panic buy, but most of it is related to COVID. Many people thought that the world was going to end. So many people “woke up” to the idea that they may have to fend for themselves and that no one was coming to save them. This change of mentality led to an explosion in firearms and ammo sales.

Weirdly enough, the price of ammo didn’t have an immediate rise at the beginning of the pandemic. It was summertime before we started to see a real spike in price. Prices averaged $0.20 a round for 9mm until July. Then we began to see prices rise to an average of about $0.30/per round.

The price rise could be attributed to the BLM protests, counter and subsequent riots that followed, which were viewed widely across the internet and traditional media. There were depictions of innocent people getting hurt or worse, swarmed by protestors, with no police anywhere to help.

This led to a panic buy on top of a panic buy. Whereas previously, shelves had been scarce, they became empty. People started to hoard ammunition like they had been hoarding toilet paper. Since manufacturing companies were set up to meet the average demand of the “Trump Slump” of the previous years, where gun and ammo sales had been low, there started to be bottlenecks in ammunition production. Ammo manufacturers were not prepared for the sharp increase in buying.

In August 2020, we started to see prices increase even more as ammo became harder to come by. 9mm saw an average of $0.50/ per round. Major manufacturing companies started to report that they had accumulated millions of dollars in backorders. We tried to place a substantial order for ammo and were straight up told that there was no way that we’d get it within the year or next.  

Speaking to some of our friends, we gathered that there was a shortage of primers. Primers are the component within ammunition that ignites the gunpowder to expel the projectile from the bullet & firearm when struck by the firing pin. For those that don’t know, primers are incredibly dangerous to produce. The manufacturing process sometimes results in death. Primers are typically the bottleneck in the production process for ammunition. A shortage of primers caused by high demand and supply chain disruption continued to help drive up the cost of ammo.

We luckily found an importer who had bought 1M rounds of Turkish 9mm. We were able to work with him to import the ammo, and that saw us through the worst of the shortages. Unfortunately, we were victims of circumstance (like everyone else) and had to pay a high cost per round to acquire the ammo.

After the 2020 election, we saw prices rise again to an average of $0.60 per round. To give you an idea of what that means- a box of ammo is 50 rounds typically. That’s about 3-5 magazines, depending on how many bullets you load. 9mm is meant to be an inexpensive round. It’s relatively cheap to produce, and its popularity has a lot to do with that fact. When you have people paying $30 ($0.60 per round) for a box of 9mm, as opposed to $12 (0.24 per round) eight months prior, shooting starts to get expensive, especially since the average range trip equates to about 2-300 rounds per caliber.

Consider this as well; statistics show that in 2020 alone, 23 million firearms were sold, with 6 million of those guns being bought by first-time gun owners. Suppose each of those new gun owners wants to buy enough ammo for an average range trip, 200 rounds. In that case, those people would need 1,200,000,000 rounds of ammo to satisfy the demand, and that’s not even including the 32% of Americans that own guns (According to Gallup polling.) That would be about 104,960,000 people if you were wondering.

So, to satisfy that market, if each of those 104.9 Million people wanted only 200 rounds of ammo for one firearm, the amount of ammo needed would be serious. (and we know that people, in reality, want thousands of rounds per firearm). That’s not including law enforcement contracts and military contracts, which usually take precedence over the civilian market.

Finally, in Jan. of 2021, we seem to reach the peak. With the Jan. 6th protests and Biden’s inauguration, gun and ammo buying hit new highs. 9mm prices on average hit $0.71 per round. During this time, we regularly heard from customers that other spots were selling 9mm at $1/round.

At the time of writing this (September 2021), we’re just now starting to see a drop in ammo prices and gun sales slowing down. 9mm is sitting at $0.31 per round for steel case and $0.34 per round for brass on the low end. Any well-known brand names are sitting at around $0.39 per round. Even with Biden’s new “Russian Ammo Ban,” prices seem to have steadily fallen, at least on 9mm.

The real question is, will the prices keep dropping? It’s anyone’s guess.

There’s a ton of factors affecting the market right now, from unrest around the world. For example, earlier this month, a coup in Guinea sent Aluminum prices to a ten-year high. If you’re unfamiliar, Guinea holds a quarter of the world’s bauxite supply, a raw material that can be refined into alumina, which can then be smelted into aluminum.  

This price change can affect the cost of firearms, as manufacturers will have to pay a higher price to acquire raw materials.

Shipping and transporting are another problem now, with sea containers fetching record-high prices because of a shortage and supply chains still seeing significant disruptions.

Since the panic buy for firearms has at least subsided a little bit, people have stopped hoarding ammo and are choosier. We’re seeing this in gun sales right now where customers aren’t coming in and just buying anything on the wall. People are starting to do their research and are becoming pickier about their buying. I think this is the same for ammo as well. The demand has subsided a bit. If supply continues to meet demand, I think we’ll continue to see a drop in prices. Barring some mutation in covid that gives the virus a 50% CFR, more supply chain disruptions, or the Biden administration passing some severe gun control legislation, I think we will continue to see the price of ammo dropping slowly.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/18/2021 – 21:30

Author: Tyler Durden

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Energy & Critical Metals

The Ethical Investor: ESG moves, lessons from the energy crisis and JP Equities’ stock tips

The Ethical Investor is Stockhead’s weekly look at ESG moves on the ASX. This week’s special guest is JP Equity … Read More
The post The Ethical…

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The Ethical Investor is Stockhead’s weekly look at ESG moves on the ASX. This week’s special guest is JP Equity Partners’ director and partner, Nic Brownbill.

The world is in the grip of an ongoing global power crisis that has seen energy prices soaring by thousands of percentage points.

From China to Europe and now India, the cost of energy is surging drastically. The price of natural gas has even quadrupled in some parts of the world.

 

Source: IEA via Reuters

 

But economists are now warning this might be just the first of many power crunches the world will see as we transition into the new economy.

According to a research paper by CommBank’s analyst Vivek Dhar, there are two main root causes that led to the crisis — a strong demand recovery from the pandemic, and an acute shortage of two key power-producing fuels – natural gas and thermal coal.

As economies reopen, there is a sudden pent up demand from consumers which meant that factories were forced to switch on their production capacity at short notice. This was exacerbated by a colder than usual European autumn, as the continent potentially faces a more-freezing-than-usual winter season.

In China, the crisis mainly stemmed from an undersupply in local production of coals, according to Dhar, adding that coal supply has been hampered in China because of the government’s own environmental protection regulations.

So what can we learn from all this?

Dhar reckons that we are transitioning into the new economy too fast, too soon.

“What the recent energy crisis has shown is that the energy transition needs to be planned carefully,” Dhar wrote.

“This will mean significant investment in renewable generation, batteries, electricity grids and hydrogen.”

But he thinks the roll-out of a decarbonised grid and role of gas need to be clearly defined too.

“Under-investing in gas infrastructure relative to its role in coming years will only serve to make Europe’s energy market more vulnerable to prolonged gas shortages, and increase dependence on Russia.”

Like Europe, China’s decarbonisation ambition will need to be planned as well, Dhar said.

“If coal mines and coal power plants are closed before a renewable replacement is in place, power shortages in China could be an ongoing concern.”
 

What’s happening in Australia

Australians have chosen climate change as the top ESG priority, according to the latest survey conducted by global ESG consultant, SEC Newgate.

And more than half of the 1,000 Aussies surveyed said they were happy with the direction the government is taking on the environment.

ESG Rio
Source: Survey by SEC Newgate

 

Aussie respondents also nominated retailers Coles Group (ASX:COL) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW) as the top local companies when it came to doing well on ESG metrics.

These results should provide food for thought for PM Scott Morrison, who’s currently caught in a political wrangle with the Nationals in setting our 2050 climate goals.

The PM has told Liberal colleagues that he wants to bring a binding 2050 net zero commitment to the COP26 Summit in Glasgow next month, without having to upgrade Australia’s 2030 commitments.

Nationals Leader and also Deputy PM, Barnaby Joyce, said however that he was willing to back the 2050 targets only if funding for regional producers and farmers were made as part of the deal.
 

Special guest JP Equities’ Nic Brownbill shares his views and ESG stocks

Nic Brownbill, a partner at JP Equity, told Stockhead that decarbonisation is a mega global investment opportunity, one that JP Equity wants to be all in on.

How big is the potential for ESG investing?

“We see the whole decarbonisation theme as the next mega global investment opportunity. An estimated $41 trillion is required to decarbonise the planet. It’s going to be a bigger opportunity than the crypto market, because unlike cryptos, the carbon market is going to be mandated by governments, major asset managers and pension funds.”

Which segment of the ESG market do you see outperforming?

“Some companies will fall short in trying to make their carbon targets, so the balance will need to be met with carbon credits. I think carbon emissions will eventually be metricated, and the carbon offset market is going to be a way for major companies to offset their emissions.”

Would that investment opportunity catch on in Australia?

“I believe the Australian market hasn’t really caught on to the opportunity of this yet. But I think something will really start to emerge from the COP26 conference in November, where you’ll see a sustained mega theme starting to unfold in this country.

“I think we will start to see a complete emergence of Australian companies in the carbon space over the next few months and beyond.”

What are the ASX stocks that JP Equity likes in the carbon credit space?

One ASX stock that we’ve been watching very closely is  Fertoz (ASX:FTZ). They’re a leading North American fertiliser manufacturer that produces a unique low-emission rock phosphate product that increases crop yield by 15%.

“Importantly, it can generate significantly lower CO2 emissions in manufacturing compared with other commercial fertilisers.

“This presents a really significant opportunity because agriculture as a sector accounts for 24% of all human generated greenhouse emissions. Fertoz is one of the first movers in the carbon credit market, and since May this year has been issuing carbon offset credit certificates.

“It’s not a matter of if, but when disclosure of carbon emissions will become metricated. And as a result, Fertoz is getting some strong enquiries from other companies looking to offset their footprints by buying carbon credits.”

Any other ASX stocks you like in the ESG space?

“We’re also bullish on Mpower (ASX:MPR). The company is Australia’s leading specialist in renewable energy, battery storage and micro-grid business. It has a focus on five megawatt solar farms, and is in the process of creating an initial portfolio of 20 sites across Australia in the coming years.

“That gives them an aggregate capacity of around 100 megawatts, and an estimated value of more than $150 million. It’s now down to what the team can deliver in some of those projects to build up the portfolio.”

 

Notable ASX ESG-related news during the week

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)

The energy giant announced that it was targeting a 50% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, and a 15% reduction by 2025 from a 2018 baseline of 32.6Mt.

Around $7.5 billion in direct capital expenditure will be spent on decarbonising Rio Tinto’s assets from 2022 to 2030, including $0.5 billion per year from 2022 to 2024.

Strandline Resources (ASX:STA)

The company released its Sustainability Report for 2021, outlining its commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs).

STA said it’s focused on managing development risks at its Coburn project in WA to safeguard workers and ensure environmental compliance.

Lithium Power (ASX:LPI)

The company has appointed global consulting firm Deloitte to ensure a robust ESG program at its Maricunga project in Chile.

Deloitte has been tasked to imbed sustainable protocols in LPI’s lithium extraction operations, and to establish ambitious standards for LPI to become a carbon neutral producer, while keeping high standards on the social aspects.

Jadar Resources (ASX:JDR)

The company also said it has completed its maiden Sustainability Plan, with strategies aligned to the UNSDGs.

 

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the interviewee and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.

The post The Ethical Investor: ESG moves, lessons from the energy crisis and JP Equities’ stock tips appeared first on Stockhead.




Author: Eddy Sunarto

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Energy & Critical Metals

You Can Now Buy A Flying Car That Looks Like A Star Wars Spacecraft

You Can Now Buy A Flying Car That Looks Like A Star Wars Spacecraft

Forget Elon Musk’s Tesla Cyberquad ATV because there’s a new form of transportation…

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You Can Now Buy A Flying Car That Looks Like A Star Wars Spacecraft

Forget Elon Musk’s Tesla Cyberquad ATV because there’s a new form of transportation for the offroad enthusiast now available, and it looks like something out of Star Wars. 

Sweden’s Jetson Aero has begun manufacturing a personal electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft that will zip around the skies at 63 mph. 

The Jetson One eVTOL is an octocopter with four arms that produce 88 kW (118 horsepower) at full throttle. The pilot sits in an aluminum/carbon fiber frame and controls the craft via a throttle lever on the left, a joystick on the right, and a pair of pedals, likely controlling yaw.

According to vehicle car website Autoevolution, “the company [Jetson Aero] said that you can easily climb as high as 1,500 meters (4,921 feet) with Jetson One.” So far, videos only show the eVTOL moving at high rates of speed at low altitudes.  

Someone who weighs roughly 187 pounds can expect 15-20 minutes of flight time before the batteries need a recharge. 

New Atlas noted the eVTOL comes 50% built, and presumably, owners will have to assemble the rest. For that reason, the craft will likely fly under “experimental” where pilots don’t need a license to fly. 

As for price, a $22k deposit will give someone the right to reserve a build slot for 2023. There are only three left. Production in 2022, a total of 12, has already been secured from people worldwide, including a few in California. 

Personal eVTOLs appear to be the next big trend in transportation that will revolutionize how people (rich people) travel and commute or spend their leisure time. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/23/2021 – 23:00

Author: Tyler Durden

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Energy & Critical Metals

LG Companies to Pay $918M Over Chevy Bolt Fires, Resume Plans for IPO Before Year-End

LG Chem has come to an agreement with General Motors (NYSE: GM) to cover the cost of the Bolt battery
The post LG Companies to Pay $918M Over Chevy Bolt…

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LG Chem has come to an agreement with General Motors (NYSE: GM) to cover the cost of the Bolt battery recall, as the automaker is forced to recall all Bolt EVs ever produced.

According to a company statement seen by Bloomberg, LG Energy Solution and LG Electronics Inc— both of which are owned by LG Chem Ltd and manufactured electric vehicle batteries for GM, have agreed to pay the automaker a combined 1.1 trillion won, or $918 million in costs related to the Chevy Bolt recall.

LG Energy is expected to pay about 620 billion won after fires started in about a dozen Bolts, prompting GM to issue a recall spanning across more than 100,000 vehicles. LG Electronics, which was responsible for packaging the cells produced by LG Energy into modules that were placed in the batteries, has also agreed to compensate GM 480 billion won in costs.

Including previous costs related to the recall that were disclosed during the companies’ second-quarter earnings, both companies are now responsible for coming up with a total of 1.4 trillion won related to the recall. Following the news, LG Electronics slumped by nearly 1% before paring back losses, while LG Chem jumped by over 4%.

On Tuesday, LG Energy also announced that it will resume plans to launch an IPO before the end of the year, after putting the original plans on hold after GM announced the recall. LG Energy was one of the largest EV battery manufacturers in the world between January and August, and according to a report cited by the Korea Times, the company’s valuation sits at around 100 trillion won, or $83.58 billion, with expectations that it could raise nearly 10 trillion won during during the IPO.


Information for this briefing was found via Bloomberg and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post LG Companies to Pay $918M Over Chevy Bolt Fires, Resume Plans for IPO Before Year-End appeared first on the deep dive.


Author: Hermina Paull

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