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Crypto roundup: Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF debuts on Nasdaq; market down but Solana shines

Bitcoin now has its latest US-based futures exchange-traded fund (ETF), with the Valkyrie BTF product officially launched on New York’s … Read More



This article was originally published by Stockhead

Bitcoin now has its latest US-based futures exchange-traded fund (ETF), with the Valkyrie BTF product officially launched on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange. The crypto market overall, meanwhile, has pulled back a bit.

Digital asset manager Valkyrie’s ETF joins the similar ProShares product in the US market, BITO, which had been crushing it with record amounts of volume for an ETF launch in its first two days.

Because Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is the go-to guy on Twitter for insights on these matters, we’ve gone to his feed once again…

As for the Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF, it also seems to be off to a reasonable start. Shame its ticker couldn’t have been called BTFD, though… (Don’t geddit? Look it up here.)

“This Bitcoin Strategy ETF is a major leap forward for this asset class,” said Valkyrie CEO Leah Wald in a statement today.

“It enables investors to participate in the digital asset markets through a regulated, transparent product that trades on a trusted, reliable exchange and can be bought and sold as easily as any other investment currently available.”


Paul Tudor Jones still likes Bitcoin as inflation hedge

As has been well documented by Stockhead, and others, the current crop of regulator-approved ETFs track the value of BTC futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

A spot-backed, or physically backed Bitcoin ETF is the one the crypto crowd really wants, however, as this is the product that’d require funds to take full custody of Bitcoins, instead of essentially trading in IOUs at premiums and discounts to the actual BTC price.

As the famed billionaire hedge-fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said to CNBC earlier this week regarding the new ETFs:

“I think a better way to get in would be to actually own the physical Bitcoin, to take the time to learn how to own it,” before adding… “I think the ETF would be fine. I think the fact that it is SEC-approved should give you great comfort.”

Tudor Jones also confirmed Bitcoin is his preferred inflation hedge right now, against a weakening US dollar.

“Clearly, there’s a place for crypto,” he said. “Clearly, it’s winning the race against gold at the moment … It would be my preferred one over gold at the moment.”

We know who would agree with him…


Mooners and shakers

So, overall we’re seeing a reddish day in the crypto market, and that’s not necessarily anything to be concerned about. It might have something to do with some big-player profit taking after an extremely positive week on the whole. A week that clocked new all-time highs, and not just for Bitcoin.


At the time of writing, the entire crypto market cap, consisting of about 10,000 coins on about 550 exchanges, is down by about 1.5 per cent since this time yesterday. It’s chilling out around US$2.64 trillion in total valuation, give or take a few hundred million.

And as you can see from the top-coin market overview above, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), crypto’s dominant ones, are a little stagnant today – down about two to three per cent in the past 24 hours.

There are outliers in the top 10, though, most notably “layer 1” smart-contract platform Solana (SOL), which is getting very close to touching the all-time high of $2.13 it set about a month ago. It’s changing hands for US$2.09 and up 15 per cent.

Could ex-England football striker Wayne Rooney have caused a surge? Yeah, probably not…

One of Solana’s main rivals, Polkadot (DOT), is also having a decent day, up about four per cent, and digging in around US$44. Anticipation for the Polkadot parachain crowdloans is building. They begin on November 11.

And there are other strong ones in this playing field faring even better: Avalanche (AVAX) is up 11.5 per cent since yesterday, while Fantom (FTM), and Elrond (EGLD) are both about 11 per cent to the good.

And the the highly rated Kusama-based platform Moonriver (MOVR) is also glowing, up 24 per cent since this time yesterday, and +54 per cent over the past seven days.

DeFi beaut THORChain (RUNE), meanwhile is still surging, up 18.5 per cent over the past day and 35 per cent on the week.

As for the overall market as we head into the weekend, it feels like we’re in another holding (or HODLing) pattern, waiting once again for the next big move.

Remaining cautious and level-headed about the crypto market is something to keep in mind, as a larger short-term correction is never off the cards… but there are no shortage of coinheads in the cryptoverse who still feel like the following…

The post Crypto roundup: Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF debuts on Nasdaq; market down but Solana shines appeared first on Stockhead.

Author: Rob Badman


Fed’s Exuberance Index Shows Canada’s Real Estate To Be A “Bubble On A Bubble”

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest Exuberance Index (Q2), considered a “smoking gun” for bubbles, shows Canada is well into a real estate bubble – a…

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest Exuberance Index (Q2), considered a “smoking gun” for bubbles, shows Canada is well into a real estate bubble – a bubble on a bubble.

This article by Lorimer Wilson, Managing Editor of, is an edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) version of an article by Daniel Wong of

The U.S. Federal Reserve Exuberance Index, considered a “smoking gun” for bubbles, seeks to identify…persistent growth in prices in excess of fundamentals to help policymakers act on bubbles early so countries can minimize the damage. Such exuberant price growth is considered irrational and based on emotion and prone to rapid corrections which can become a threat to more than just one buyer.

How do we use this tool? The index makes understanding market exuberance straightforward for analysts. They provide two sets of numbers, a country’s index and a 95% critical value threshold. If the quarter rises above the threshold it’s an exuberant quarter. After five consecutive quarters of exuberance, you have an exuberant market. That’s a bubble and the Canadian real estate just logged its sixth consecutive quarter as an exuberant market, rising to 3.08 and is now more than double the threshold value of 1.37 needed to be considered as such but it might be a lot worse than that just six quarters.

Starting in Q2 2015, housing saw 14 consecutive quarters of exuberance and then 4 out of 5 following quarters marginally below the threshold but that isn’t enough time for a period to be considered non-exuberant. Canadian real estate is either one longer bubble or a bubble on a bubble since it didn’t correct between. In either case, the gap between fundamentals and prices has expanded this whole time.


A  large correction is needed although the Fed can’t tell you when as policy interventions to extend a bubble can delay a correction and any such action is essentially passing on a deficit of market inefficiency, meaning it has to be paid back later – with interest.

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Author: Lorimer Wilson

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After Today’s “Crazy” Meltdown, What Is Oil’s Fair Value? Goldman Has The Answer

After Today’s "Crazy" Meltdown, What Is Oil’s Fair Value? Goldman Has The Answer

Black gold suffered a very red day today: the fall in Brent…

After Today’s “Crazy” Meltdown, What Is Oil’s Fair Value? Goldman Has The Answer

Black gold suffered a very red day today: the fall in Brent prices to below $74/bbl (-10%) – fears that a new Covid variant would lead to a freeze in oil demand – was the largest daily decline since oil prices collapsed to negative levels last April, exacerbated by usually low trading activity on Black Friday (with similar moves in 2014, 2016 and 2018), the breach of key support levels (50, 100 and 200-day moving averages) as well as likely negative gamma effects.

At the worst point of the crash, WTI futures slumped 14% from their pre-Thanksgiving close and Brent collapsed more than 12%. By the close they’d both recovered slightly, but for Brent futures it was still the seventh worst one-day drop in history!

“It’s been a crazy day in the markets that feels very reminiscent of last March,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe.

While the initial overnight plunge was driven by revived fears of widespread lockdowns and travel bans, a host of technical factors, including muted post-holiday volumes and (downward) momentum-chasing algos exacerbated the sell-off. The panic spread to every corner of the market from European diesel trades and time-spreads, the relative value of oil today to oil tomorrow, through to opaque options markets.

“Factors such as the break of technical support levels and an environment with lower liquidity post the Thanksgiving holiday have intensified the price drop,” said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

While one can blame algos, trendlines and the lack of carbon-based traders for today’s plunge, one thing is certain: there was nothing fundamental about today’s move.

As Goldman’s commodity strategist Damien Courvalin, who has emerged as Goldman’s designated oil cheerleader and who in the past 4 months has been quite vocal about his $90+ oil price target in the coming months, writes today at $74/bbl Brent, the market is pricing a roughly 4 million b/d negative demand hit over the next three months, with no offsetting OPEC+ response.

To put this into its stunning context, global oil demand fell “only” 2 million b/d peak to trough during last winter’s Covid wave, meaning that today the market priced in a twice as severe wave as last winter!

The parallel nature of the sell-off, with back-end prices down $5/bbl could also be interpreted as the market pricing in a shallower but longer demand hit. Specifically, the change in the entire curve is pricing in a 2.5 mb/d hit over 3 months with a more permanent impact on demand of c. 1.5 mb/d.

Needless to say, in Goldman’s view both seem an excessive repricing: current jet demand levels are just 1 mb/d above last winter, when cases and hospitalizations were far higher and before any widespread vaccinations. While a worst case outcome could be a return to last winter’s levels, 0.5 mb/d downside to Goldman’s current base-case until 2Q 22 would be a conservative assumption given what we know at present.

Separately, some limited mobility restrictions could feasibly be expected to subtract an additional 0.5 mb/d from global demand outside of jet on the return of mobility restriction. This would be a similar impact to half of last winter’s wave in Europe given the ever weakening link between restrictions and economic activity/oil demand.

In such a scenario, Goldman agrees with what we said earlier today, that should demand collapse OPEC+ would pause its ramp-up at least for one month vs. consensus estimates of increase through April 2022.

In other words, adding all of the above, the impact of a new large Covid wave would be c.0.7 mb/d over 3 months, and up to at most $2 downside versus Goldman’s current modal price forecast path. Instead Brent collapsed to $12 below it, an arb of some $10/barrel. 

Admittedly, to this negative Covid impact, one could also add the added bearish element of this week’s bearish SPR announcement which Goldman calculates is worth a net 47 million barrels to its 1H 2022 balances, and an additional $2/bbl downside to our forecasts. Taken together, these represent at most $5/bbl downside to Goldman’s $85/bbl 4Q21-1Q22 oil price forecasts.

Said otherwise, a worst-case outcome means oil is fairly priced at $80. At its closing price below $73 it’s a steal.

On the other hand, there is substantial potential for offsetting bullish developments via the lack of progress in Iranian negotiations (where things are going nowhere fast and where Goldman had expected a supply ramp up beginning in 2Q 22), as well as OPEC+ freezing its production hike for three months (instead of one) which would completely offset the combined negative hits of both another large Covid wave and SPR releases.

Alas, none of this mattered to the algos, robots and CTAs who led the charge of today’s meltdown: as Bloomberg notes, the market spiraled ever lower as oil broke through key technical levels, with futures dropping 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That gave algorithmic computer-driven trades the upper hand on a day when many participants were away from the market.

“The sell-off has no doubt been driven exacerbated by algo-driven trading as key technical levels broke down,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets.

Then we got the added kicker of negative gamma once the options market kicked in. When prices fall heavily, banks often sell futures contracts in order to hedge themselves against losses from put options. Banks often sell puts to producers who want to protect against a bear market. This feedback loop, known as negative gamma to options traders, was seen as a factor on Friday.

“Dealers just took down hedges and they are shorter put options than normal, so must sell futures to hedge,” said Ilia Bouchouev, a partner at Pentathlon Investments and former head of oil derivatives at Koch Supply and Trading.

Of course, for banks like Goldman, what happens next is clear: once the humans return, there will be an epic buying frenzy as today’s drop was at least twice as big as it should have been. Others agree: even if the Omicron variant is as scary as described – and that is by no means decided – they expect prices to recover quickly when the U.S. market returns fully after the holiday and volumes return to normal. The longer-term outlook remains robust.

“This is a huge overreaction in terms of the market,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “This is the market pricing in the worst possible scenarios.”

Of course, it would be most ironic if in a week or two, once the Omicron panic has subsided, oil trades well above Wednesday’s closing price and is approaching triple digits. In fact, the wheels on such an outcome are already in motion and as Bloomberg confirms our earlier speculation, OPEC+ is “increasingly inclined to ditch their plan to raise output next week”, as a new virus variant triggered oil’s worst crash in over a year.

The 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia is leaning toward abandoning a plan for a modest production hike scheduled for January when it meets on Dec. 1 to 2, according to delegates who declined to be identified. The group was already considering a pause after the U.S. and other consumers announced the release of emergency oil stockpiles on Monday. 

“The emergence of a new Covid variant that could spawn renewed shutdowns and travel restrictions is precisely the type of change in market conditions that could cause ministers to deviate from their plan” to add barrels, said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has warned that global crude markets are poised to return to surplus next month, and that demand is at risk from new infections. OPEC’s internal research shows a substantial excess forming early next year, that will only balloon if the U.S. and its associates tap their strategic reserves.

It appears the Saudis were correct.

But while until now, withholding additional barrels while the U.S. and others called out for them would have been a politically fraught move, fraying an already-fragile relationship between Riyadh and Washington the emergence of the new virus off-shoot, with its obvious risks to fuel consumption, makes an output freeze much easier to defend. UBS even joined this website in suggesting that the group could consider an output cut.

As such, today’s stunning kneejerk crash in oil, which priced in a horrifying pandemic outcome twice as bad as that of last winter when the world was blanketed in covid and nobody had vaccines, will prove to be a career-making buying opportunity for a commodity which one way or another is headed far, far higher.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/26/2021 – 18:30

Author: Tyler Durden

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Precious Metals

Gold & Gold Miners Remain in Correction

  Gold popped above resistance at $1835 to start the month but reversed course rather violently before it could even test $1900. After rallying $150 in…


Gold popped above resistance at $1835 to start the month but reversed course rather violently before it could even test $1900. After rallying $150 in six weeks, Gold plunged $80 in only three days.


Simply put, the correction continues. 


The one positive is that Gold has held up very well amid the rising dollar. However, it’s increasingly clear that Gold cannot break or even test $1900 until it outperforms the stock market.


As the daily chart shows, Gold retreated from trendline resistance for the fifth time since the correction began. Meanwhile, Gold against the stock market is trading at a 16-year low. It didn’t move as Gold rebounded $150!


Gold has initial support at $1750, followed by $1700.


Turning to the miners, we see they remain in a downtrend as the rally has reversed below the 200-day moving averages.


Nonetheless, if the miners can hold their October lows, a new uptrend could begin. That is a good possibility next year.


Understanding the macro backdrop for Gold is even more important than understanding the technicals.


I’ve written in recent months about why Gold won’t begin another leg higher until there is a stock market correction or a Fed rate hike.


Today let me focus on the Fed rate hike.


Over the past 60 years, the Fed has embarked on eight rate hike cycles. During five of the eight, Gold rebounded around the hike, while once (1993-1994) Gold rebounded months ahead of the hike. (The other two are irrelevant to today because Gold rebounded sharply before the rate hikes).  


Below we plot data from the start of the last four rate hike cycles as well as 1976.


Typically, Gold declines in the months leading up to the first rate hike but rebounds after the hike and reaches at least a 2-year high.


That would entail Gold declining below $1700 but rallying up to anywhere from $1950 to the all time high, $2070 by the end of 2022. 


Fed Funds Futures currently show over a 50% chance of a rate hike at the May 2022 meeting, which is a little more than five months away. There’s also a nearly 30% chance of a rate hike in March 2022.


The sooner, the better for precious metals. 


We are potentially looking at another quarter or two to accumulate precious metals before the next leg higher begins.

I continue to be laser focused on finding quality juniors with at least 5 to 7 bagger potential over the next few years. To learn the stocks we own and intend to buy, with at least 5x upside potential after this correction, consider learning more about our premium service. 

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