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Andy Schectman – “Physical Demand Will Completely Overwhelm Supply” and Why Silver Could Pop $270

Interview with Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

"Physical Demand Will Completely Overwhelm Supply" And How Silver Could Wind Up Over $270

(Submitted by Quoth the Raven from QTR's "Fringe Finance" at

This is Part 1 of a two-part interview with Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company that has done more than $5 billion in sales. Andy is a world-renowned expert in the field of precious metals and took the time to answer some pressing questions I had about the possibility of a real silver squeeze, the precious metals market, the Fed, and the future of money worldwide. He has been a frequent guest on my podcast, as well.

Q: Hi Andy, thanks for joining me. Is a silver squeeze really even possible given the massive size of the silver market? In layman's terms, how could it happen?

A: More silver is being consumed than is being mined each year.  Last year, approximately 850 million ounces were mined globally, with a demand of over one billion ounces. The industrial demand for silver is surging in an increasingly digital world, with new applications every day in green energy and battery powered vehicles.

At the same time annual global mine supply is declining and industrial demand is increasing, a global renaissance in monetary demand is upon us.  This is happening while a handful of large Wall Street bullion banks have manipulated the price of monetary metals for decades,  allowing some of the biggest money in the world to accumulate massive amounts of physical gold and silver at subsidized prices.

The physical demand filters down from the top. Over 300 million ounces of silver were removed from the Comex market in 2020 by some of the most sophisticated and well healed investors in the world.  Settlements on the Comex are usually mostly in dollars.  The Comex was not set up to be a source of physical delivery.  This is no small development.  In years past, this amount would represent roughly a decade’s worth of silver deliveries.  In addition, Comex deliveries in 2021 are now on pace to better the 2020’s delivery numbers.  When all of this is added to record global retail physical demand in coins and bars - physical demand at some point and probably sooner rather than later, will completely overwhelm supply.

In geological terms, silver is found in a form called epithermal, meaning it is found very near the surface.  This means that most of the big deposits were found years ago, even before the advent of enhanced imagery.  In fact, only 30% of global mine supply comes from primary silver miners, while 70% comes as a byproduct of mining other metals such as copper and zinc.

In summary, the demand for physical silver is greater than the supply - the amount being mined each year. And it’s expanding. At the same time, silver is in the cross hairs of a new class of “deep pocket” investors,  from hedge funds to home offices.  And the “retail” demand is on the rise as well. As an example, our business at Miles Franklin is up between 300% - 400% and it is 95% silver. This new, large demand is, in part, being funded by savvy investors taking profits on stocks and Bitcoin. 

Most commodities have one primary source of demand, like copper – which is solely and industrial metal, and gold, which is mostly a monetary metal.  Silver is in demand by both industry and investors.  At some point they will be in competition with each other.  That point is not far off.  So yes, I think a squeeze is not only possible but actually highly probable.

Q: Andy, you've been in the precious metals business for decades.  Where would you pin the true price of silver and gold right now?

A: Much higher!  Due to the relentless market manipulation, there is no accurate way to find honest price discovery.  So far, supply and demand of physical silver has had little effect on the paper prices set on the Comes. It is impossible to determine the true, unmanipulated price. 

When you factor in money creation and inflation,  plus the rise in all commodities, gold at $3,000 seems on the low side to me.  Of course, this is just a subjective guess.   

Silver is perhaps the most undervalued asset on the planet and in my opinion, it presents the buying opportunity of a generation.  The silver to gold ratio is currently 75 to 1.  It takes 75 ounces of silver to “buy” one ounce of silver.  Yet only seven ounces of silver are coming out of the ground for every one ounce of gold.  In other words, at a 7 to 1 ratio, silver is nearly 11 times undervalued in its relation to gold.  Further if you divide the current price of gold ($1,800) by 7, the current global mining ratio, you get a silver price of $270.  With $3,000 gold, a minimum number I expect to see sooner than later,  you get $428 an ounce.

Q: One of the things I just wrote about was China potentially backing its new digital currency with gold. Do you think China would consider backing the digital Yuan with gold? What would the ramifications be for the price of metals and the FX markets?

A: Yes, I think that is their plan. I think they will back the new digital Yuan in a nonconvertible fashion. I don’t think you will be able to trade in a digital yuan for a piece of gold, but I do believe gold backing is ultimately highly probable.  The Chinese do sell gold-backed yuan bonds that can be converted into physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

(MoneyWeek’s estimate of Cumulative gold potentially held in China is the black line)

According to the most recent estimates, the Chinese have 38,000 tonnes of gold.  Broken down,  20,000 tonnes are owned by the state and 18,000 tonnes are owned by the people.  That is almost 5 times as much as the 8133 tonnes the United States supposedly owns.  Further, the new Chinese Belt, Road and Rail Initiative, connecting Asia and Africa and 70% of human population, is the most ambitious infrastructure project in human history and the new Digital Yuan will be the currency of choice for this project.  This in effect introduces a new settlement currency to 7 out of 10 people in the world.  Gold backing of their new digital Yuan with validation of the holdings on a distributed ledger would immediately create demand and credibility for the Digital Yuan.  In one form or another, I believe that is exactly what will happen.  You don’t want to own dollar denominated assets when that happens.

For access to part two of this interview coming next week and all of my content, become a subscriber here.

More About Andy Schectman

Prior to starting Miles Franklin, Ltd. in 1989, Andrew became a Licensed Financial Planner, specializing in Swiss Franc Investments and alternative investments. At Miles Franklin Ltd., a company that has eclipsed $5 billion in sales, Andrew has developed an operation that maintains trust, collaboration, and ethical behavior, superior customer service and satisfaction to better serve their clients. He is responsible for overseeing the firm’s operations and business functions; including strategy and planning, account management, finance, and new business.

Any of my subscribers interested in contacting Andy can reach him personally at, as long as you noted that you were given that e-mail address by me.


I own physical silver, PAAS, PSLV and a number of other metals equities. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. It is only a look into my personal opinions and portfolio. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe.


These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot. If I am here listing things I got right or things I think will happen in the future, note that there are likely twice as many things I got wrong over the same period of time. I’m not a financial advisor, I hold no licenses or registrations and am not qualified to give advice on anything, let alone finance or medicine. Talk to your doctor, talk to your financial advisor or your therapist. Leave me a alone and do your research elsewhere. If you can find somewhere to rate this Substack one star, please do so as to save future readers from the misery of my often wholly incorrect prognostications.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/11/2021 - 09:20


US indices close in red as tech, consumer stocks slump

Benchmark US indices closed in red on Tuesday September 28 after broad losses across stock segments and investors weighed weak consumer confidence data…

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Benchmark US indices closed in red on Tuesday, September 28, after broad losses across stock segments and investors weighed weak consumer confidence data, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.

The S&P 500 was down 2.04% to 4,352.63. The Dow Jones fell 1.63% to 34,299.99. The NASDAQ Composite fell 2.83% to 14,546.68, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 2.25% to 2,229.78.

Consumer confidence fell further in September, following two consecutive months of decline in July and August. The consumer confidence index of the Conference Board, a non-profit organization, declined to 109.3 points from 115.2 in August.

Last week, the Federal Reserve had signaled that it might start withdrawing its asset-buying program in November, along with an interest rate revision by next year.

The assessment raised optimism of a sustained economic revival since it had earlier noted in statements that its decision would depend on the overall economic recovery.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a three-month high on Monday, leading to a sharp retreat in mega-cap technology stocks. Yields rose 4.18% to 1.546.

Barring the energy segment, all remaining 10 sectors of the S&P 500 stayed in the negative territory. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks were the biggest losers.

Stocks of IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) declined 4.79% after reporting quarterly results on Tuesday. Its revenue increased by 10% YoY to US$1.18 billion in Q3, FY21, while its net income came in at US$161.3 million, a decline of 1% from the year-ago quarter.

The FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) stock surged 4.03% after reporting its fourth-quarter and full-year FY 2021 results. The Q4 revenue rose 7.4% YoY to US$411.9 million, while full-year revenue was US$1.59 billion, an increase of 6.5% YoY.

Ford Motor Company (F) stock rose 1.31% a day after it announced to spend US$11.4 billion in partnership with Korean battery manufacturer SK Innovation to build new EV plants.

In technology stocks, Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 2.04%, Accenture plc (ACN) fell 2.76%, and Adobe Inc. (ADBE) declined 3.37%. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fell 2.61% and 3.38%, respectively.

In the consumer discretionary sector, Nike, Inc. (NKE) fell 1.70%, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) fell 1.79%, and Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) sank 1.3%. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) and Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) ticked down 3.23% and 1.38%, respectively.

In energy stocks, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) increased by 1.67%, ConocoPhillips (COP) rose 2.58%, and EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) gained 1.03%. Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) and Devon Energy Corp (DVN) advanced 1.62% and 1.31%, respectively.

Also Read: Explore seven healthcare stocks that are under US$50

Also Read: Cloudflare (NET), Adobe (ADBE) stocks retreat in a sea of red

Technology and consumer discretionary stocks were the biggest losers. 

Also Read: Ford (F), Toyota (TM) stocks in focus after positive business update

Futures & Commodities

Gold futures were down 1.06% to US$1,733.45 per ounce. Silver decreased by 1.03% to US$22.460 per ounce, while copper fell 0.98% to US$4.2475.

Brent oil futures decreased by 1.65% to US$77.42 per barrel and WTI crude was down 1.48% to US$74.33.

Bond Market

The 30-year Treasury bond yields was up 4.99% to 2.095, while the 10-year bond yields rose 4.18% to 1.546.

US Dollar Futures Index increased by 0.38% to US$93.740.

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‘Dangerous’ Jerome & ‘Doomsaying’ Janet Spark Bond, Stock, Bullion, & Bitcoin Battering

‘Dangerous’ Jerome & ‘Doomsaying’ Janet Spark Bond, Stock, Bullion, & Bitcoin Battering

Fed Chair Jerome Powell (accused of being…

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'Dangerous' Jerome & 'Doomsaying' Janet Spark Bond, Stock, Bullion, & Bitcoin Battering

Fed Chair Jerome Powell (accused of being a "dangerous man" by Sen/ Warren) seemed to hint today that the shift in inflation is not just 'not transitory' but could be 'structural', prompting many to adjust expectations even more hawkishly for Fed action.

Source: Bloomberg

There is now a greater than 50% probability of rate-hike in September 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen began her testimony today by warning of all the worst parts of the bible occurring if Republicans don't vote to increase the debt limit by October 18th (which Democrats can do all on their own but are loathed to be pinned to) - "likely spur major financial collapse". That sent Debt Ceiling anxiety soaring...

Source: Bloomberg

Is it different this time?


Either way, both of the events above helped spike Treasury yields, especially at the long-end...

Source: Bloomberg

And the surge in yields extended the pain for growth stocks relative to value, but as yields really accelerated higher, equity traders got spooked and puked (dumping at the European open and US open). Stocks bounced off their lows around 1430ET (margin call time) but Jeremy Grantham's appearance on CNBC, calling the market a spectacular bubble coincided with another leg lower in the major indices..

This was the S&P worst day since -2.45% on 2/25

All the major indices tested/broke key technical levels today:

  • S&P broke back below 50DMA, testing 100DMA

  • Nasdaq broke back below 50DMA, testing 100DMA

  • Dow broke back below 50DMA and 100DMA

  • Russell 2000 broke back below 50DMA

The relationship between the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 pair has tested in a serious band of resistance...

Growth stocks were clubbed like a baby seal again and while value stocks suffered, the divergence remains...

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Parity Funds are starting to crack amid the surge in both realized and implied vol for stocks and bonds. We are heading for the worst month for risk parity since March 2020...

Source: Bloomberg

FAAMG stocks were FUBAR today, breaking down to their lowest in over 2 months...

Source: Bloomberg

"Most Shorted" Stocks were slammed lower today, erasing all of yesterday's squeeze gains...

Source: Bloomberg

Tech stocks were worst today and Energy best (Financials lagged despite higher rates)...

Source: Bloomberg

The moves in Treasury yields were almost entirely driven by higher inflation breakevens, with 10yr breakevens up +3.7bps. That echoed similar moves in Europe, where the German 10yr breakeven (+4.7bps) hit a post-2013 high of 1.653%, and their Italian counterparts (+3.9bps) hit a post-2011 high. The biggest move was in the UK however, where the 10yr breakeven (+13.2bps) reached its highest level since 2008, which comes amidst a continued fuel shortage in the country, alongside another rise in UK natural gas futures, which were up +8.20% yesterday to £190/therm, exceeding the previous closing peak set a week earlier.

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that the current move is a 1.4 sigma shift. If it gets to a 2.0 Sigma move, then shit breaks fast...

Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal too today with Bitcoin sliding back to the weekend's post-China-ban lows at around $40k...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar soared higher again today, breaking above the August highs to its highest level since Nov 5th...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices (WTI) soared to near the July cycle high, as Biden's call to OPEC appears to have failed...

Source: Bloomberg

NatGas had a wild day, soaring over 10% once again at its peak today, before plunging back into the red and then bouncing back towards the close to end higher...

The dollar's gain was gold's loss today as the barbarous relic extended its slide lower...

Copper's recent outperformance of gold continues to suggest that nominal yields have a long way to go to catch up to reality (10Y ~3.00%!)...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, none of this is helping Biden's approval rating which, after a small bounce post-Afghanistan, is back at its term lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/28/2021 - 16:01
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Precious Metals

The Best Canadian Oil & Pipeline Stocks for September 2021

Canadian oil and gas stocks, whether it be Canadian pipeline companies, oil producers or natural gas producers, are faced with economic conditions that…

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Canadian oil and gas stocks, whether it be Canadian pipeline companies, oil producers or natural gas producers, are faced with economic conditions that have simply never been seen before.

COVID-19 wreaked havoc on all Canadian energy companies as the demand for oil plummeted, and cash flow was severely impacted.

And as these once popular Canadian stocks fell, dividend yields rose and they became attractive opportunities. Many who knew the industry was beat down loaded up on oil and gas stocks, and are seeing some nice returns. 

So, are Canadian oil stocks and Canadian pipeline stocks still worth it today?

In short, yes they are. There are numerous options when it comes to Canadian energy companies with a strong focus on oil.

Although we are expected to hit peak demand by 2030 according to some experts as the transition to renewable energy companies continues, we will still be producing the commodity for the foreseeable future.

With this, we will need oil companies to produce the commodity and pipelines to ship it.

As such, you'll see a mix of Canadian pipeline stocks, Canadian oil stocks and our winner on this list is actually a Canadian natural gas producer that held up admiringly well in 2020 and continues to do well in 2021.

These oil stocks are still trading at discounts, and are currently facing significantly volatility. If you're new to buying stocks, volatility is simply the overall velocity of the movements in a stocks price.

However, as a short to mid term play, we expect most of these stocks to outperform on a re-opening of the economy, as oil demand due to travel restrictions easing will most certainly launch.

**Bonus** - An alternative option for those looking for broad oil exposure in XEG.TO

Yes, we know this post is supposed to be a list of the best Canadian oil and gas stocks. However, there is no doubting the fact that it may be wise to gain broad exposure to the industry rather than buying individual producers and hoping they're successful.

So how do you get this exposure on a producer level? Well, one of the most popular ways is buying the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (TSE:XEG). This is an ETF that tracks some of the largest oil producers in the country, including Suncor Energy, Cenovus, Tourmaline, Canadian Natural Resources and more.

The ETF has $1.4B in assets under management and has fees of 0.61%. You'll have no problem trading shares either, as daily volume often exceeds 1.2 million shares.

You won't get any pipeline exposure out of this ETF, so it is important to keep reading this post, as it does include some!

With that being said, lets move on to the top oil and gas stocks to buy in Canada today.

What are the best Canadian oil and pipeline stocks to buy today?

5. Parkland Fuel (TSE:PKI)

The energy sector is broad, and one segment that investors often forget about is the distribution and marketing of fuels and lubricants. Best to pay attention, as there are some strong companies in this industry.

One such company is Parkland Fuel (TSE:PKI). Parkland is one of the countries largest independent suppliers and marketers of fuel and petroleum products. It also has a leading network of convenience stores.

Parkland has been one of the best growth stocks in the energy sector over the last half decade.

It has grown revenue and earnings by an annual average of 20% and 50% respectively over the past five years.

How was the company achieved such an impressive growth record?

Parkland is a serial acquirer and has been scooping up the competition at a significant pace. Over the past three, it has closed on six transformative acquisitions.

Unfortunately, the pandemic impacted the company’s bottom line. There is less traveling and working from home has impacted the demand for fuel. As a result, revenue dropped by 24% in fiscal 2020.

Not surprisingly, its share price has struggled well into 2021.

However, the impact is expected to be temporary and the worst appears over. Once demand for fuel rises, Parkland will certainly rebound. In fact, it's rebounding as we speak and investor simply aren't taking note.

In fact, it is trading at a steep discount (38%) to analysts estimates which have a unanimous ‘buy’ rating and an average one-year target of $49.87 per share.

In fact, it is trading below even the lowest street target of $43.00 per share.

Simply put, this is a rebound play that doesn't quite have the "reopening" priced into, much like a lot of other reopening stocks.

As investors wait for the rebound, they can also enjoy a safe and reasonable 3.45% yield from this Canadian Dividend Aristocrat which has raised the dividend for seven consecutive years.

10 year performance of Parkland Fuel vs the TSX


4. Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ)

CNRL stock

We understand – it is very difficult to invest in oil producers.

There is a notable shift to renewables and the demand for oil cratered during the pandeimc. However, demand is now rebounding and although it may not reach 2019 levels for years, declining production will support prices.

There are similarities between current oil commodity crisis and what transpired with gold in the early 2010s. At that time gold stocks were highly leveraged which led to significant write-downs, dividend cuts and bankruptcies.

Sound familiar? The winners in the years that followed were those with low leverage and low costs.

In the oil industry, there is arguably no better operator than Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ). The company is one of the lowest cost producers and can maintain positive cash flows despite low oil prices.

On a corporate level, CNQ’s break even part is approximately ~$30/barrel – the lowest among oil sands producers.

What does this mean exactly? It means that the dividend is sustainable at WTI prices above this price point. In fact, the company came out with a dividend raise in early March of 2021, a double digit raise of 10.6%. When numerous junior producers and even one of the largest producers in the country Suncor were cutting dividends, Canadian Natural was boosting it.

The company is now yielding in the low 4% range and unlike some of the majors, has been able to navigate the crisis without a cut. It also has a 20-year dividend growth streak, which makes it one of the best income stocks in the country.

If oil continues to however around US$70/barrel then CNQ is one of the best options in the industry. If oil rises on a surge in demand? In this case, Canadian Natural would benefit significantly.

Simply put, this is a low cost, disciplined operator that is one of the best producers in the industry.

10 year performance of Canadian Natural vs the TSX


3. TC Energy (TSX:TRP)

TC Energy Logo

When it come to energy stocks, some of the best in the industry are midstream companies. Why?

They are less susceptible to the price of oil. Although they are vulnerable to lower throughput volumes, and bankruptcies from some of the smaller oil & gas companies, earnings are still underpinned by long-term contracts. One of the industry’s best is TC Energy (TSE:TRP).

In 2020, TC Energy was shaping up to be the best performing pipeline of the year, until it fell drastically in price to close out the year.

I think this was primarily from the cancellation of the Keystone pipeline, which has been all but an albatross for the company for some time now. In my eyes, the cancellation doesn't mean much. The company still has over $27 billion in projects in its pipeline, pun intended.

Furthermore, it is one of the best performing pipelines in the country. The company’s status as one of the premier midstream plays has enabled it to weather the current crisis better than most.

Specifically, how has the current crisis impacted the company?  

“Despite the challenges brought about by COVID-19, our assets have been largely unimpacted” – a strong statement by leadership.

Furthermore, outlook remained unchanged as 95% of EBITDA is underpinned by regulated assets and/or long-term contracts.

Despite thoughts to the contrary, TC Energy is also expected to grow at a decent pace. Through 2023 it expects to spend $37 billion on critical infrastructure across North America.

The company is also one of the premier income stocks on the TSX Index. It pays an attractive yield north of 5.5% which is underpinned by strong cash flows. In fact, the company re-iterated dividend growth guidance of 8-10% annually through 2021.

Post 2021, it expects the dividend to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6% at the mid-range.

Without a doubt, TC Energy deserves a mention whenever we talk about the top energy stocks in the country.

10 year performance of TC Energy vs the TSX


2. Enbridge (TSE :ENB)

Enbridge dividend

We could have just as easily swapped Enbridge (TSE:ENB) and TC Energy in our rankings. We want you to keep this in mind, both of these pipelines are interchangeable in our eyes. So don't fret about one ranking higher than the other.

Much like TC Energy, Enbridge is one of the best midstream companies in the country. What gives Enbridge the slight edge? The dividend.

At 25-years, Enbridge has one of the longest dividend growth streaks in the country.

It also currently yields a hefty 6%+, which is above historical averages. Is the dividend safe?

The dividend accounts for only 70% of distributable cash flow which is inline with the company’s target. As such, there is no reason for concern here.

Beyond 2022, Enbridge expects the dividend to be grow inline with DCF which is expected to grow by 5-7% annually. The company has also deleveraged, and current debt loads are within its targeted range of 4.5 to 5.0x EBITDA.

The good news? Enbridge’s leverage ratio is expected to drop below this level in 2021.

As of writing, Enbridge is currently trading at only 16.3 times forward earnings and 1.8 times book value. Both are considerably below the company’s five-year average of 19.44 and 2.33 respectively. It is also trading at a 8% discount to analysts one-year price target of $54.92 per share.

Overall, the company generates considerable cash flow and is expected to grow the business in the high, single digits. Can it achieve this growth?

Considering the company has only missed expectations once in the past three years, Enbridge is also one of the most reliable energy stocks on the Index in terms of execution.

10 year performance of Enbridge vs the TSX


1. Tourmaline Oil (TSE:TOU)

Tourmaline Oil dividend

Let’s get right to the point – why is Tourmaline (TSE:TOU) among our top picks?

Simply put, it was the best producer to own in 2020. It is the only mid-to-senior tier producer that was in positive territory for 2020. 

The five-year chart is nothing to get excited about. In fact, it has underperformed every one of the stocks on this list over that period. So, why this outperformance in 2020 and 2021?

First, Tourmaline is the largest natural gas producer in the country and is almost a commodity pureplay (~80% of production).

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), Condensate and Oil account for the remainder of volumes. Importantly, demand and subsequently the price of oil has been the most impacted energy commodity.

Since oil accounts for only 3% of production at Tourmaline, it wasn't impacted by record low oil prices.

It is however, still faced with low natural gas prices. Fortunately, it has been dealing with low natural gas prices for years and it is one of the industry’s lowest cost producers.

The company expects to generate revenue in excess of $4.29B in 2021, which would mark a 100% increase from 2019 levels.

The company has a disciplined approach in which it has targeted a leverage ratio of 1.0-1.5 times cash flow, with excess free cash flow used to raise dividends and buyback shares.

Furthermore, natural gas fundamentals seem to be improving. In fact, experts believe we should see steadily improving supply/demand dynamics through 2021.

The market dynamics for natural gas appear to be more stable than that of oil, as such Tourmaline is positioned to continue its strong performance relative to energy peers.

10 year performance of Tourmaline vs the TSX

TSE:TOU vs TSX Index
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