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Goldman Expects A Structural Bull Market For Commodities In 2021, Sees Gold Hitting $2300

Goldman Expects A Structural Bull Market For Commodities In 2021, Sees Gold Hitting $2300

Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/22/2020 – 12:00

A weaker U.S. dollar, rising inflation risks and demand driven by additional fiscal and monetary stimulus from major central banks will spur a bull market for commodities in 2021, Goldman’s chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie said on Thursday, also predicting that "all commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore."

The bank, which notes that markets are increasingly concerned about the return of inflation, forecast a return of 28% over a 12-month period on the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), with a 17.9% return for precious metals, 42.6% for energy, 5.5% for industrial metals and a negative return of 0.8% for agriculture.

A key catalyst for the bank’s bullish call is that "nearly all commodity markets are in, or moving toward,…

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Goldman Expects A Structural Bull Market For Commodities In 2021, Sees Gold Hitting $2300 Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2020 - 12:00

A weaker U.S. dollar, rising inflation risks and demand driven by additional fiscal and monetary stimulus from major central banks will spur a bull market for commodities in 2021, Goldman's chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie said on Thursday, also predicting that "all commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore."

The bank, which notes that markets are increasingly concerned about the return of inflation, forecast a return of 28% over a 12-month period on the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), with a 17.9% return for precious metals, 42.6% for energy, 5.5% for industrial metals and a negative return of 0.8% for agriculture.

A key catalyst for the bank's bullish call is that "nearly all commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore."

As Currie adds, "such broad-based deficits are usually only seen late in the business cycle, underscoring the unique environment markets are in. Given that inventories are drawing this early in the cycle, we see a structural bull market for commodities emerging in 2021." In the strategist's view, the bull market will be driven by three major themes:

  1. structural under-investment in the old economy,
  2. policy driven demand and
  3. macro tailwinds from a weakening dollar and rising inflation risks. "These drivers remain consistent with the bank's bullish views from the start of this year, and have now been intensified by COVID-19 disruption and the subsequent global policy response."

Some more thoughts from Currie on the tightening in commodity markets:

Commodity markets have been mostly range bound since this summer, in our view caught between a longer-term bullish outlook for 2021 and near-term concerns around the timing of a vaccine amid rising COVID cases across Europe and the US Midwest (see Exhibit 4). However, it is important to emphasize that nearly all commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a global deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore. Such broad-based deficits are usually only seen late in the business cycle,underscoring the unique environment markets are in.

As global demand remains tepid for consumer-related commodities like oil, the deficits further underscore how significant the drop in supply has been and how the supply response function has changed. For oil, the sharp drop in capex is now having an impact on non-OPEC decline rates, with capital markets refusing to fund shale drilling, only debt rollovers. In metals, we have seen a sharp drop in maintenance capex and supply disruptions dragging into 2021. This suggests that even if demand falters in coming weeks as winter exacerbates COVID-19, markets will likely continue to rebalance, barring an outright collapse in demand. In our view, base metals and agriculture have more near-term upside than oil, with smaller inventories to move through before prices begin to rise.

Goldman then shows the following chart which reveals the growing deficit across key commodities, as well as the key macro catalysts for higher commodity prices in coming months:

Hedging that even if demand falters in coming weeks as winter exacerbates COVID-19, Goldman still expect markets will continue to rebalance, "barring an outright collapse in demand." Goldman takes a more contained view on energy saying that while inventories of oil remain high, "upside in energy prices will likely come after winter." However, non-energy commodities face immediate upside as balances have tightened ahead of expectations, driven by large Chinese demand and adverse weather shocks, according to the Goldman strategist.

Focusing on Gold, Currie said that expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in developed market economies continue to drive interest rates lower and create demand for hedging the tail risks of inflation, lifting demand for precious metals. As a result, Goldman forecasts gold prices at an average of $1,836 per ounce in 2020 and $2,300 per ounce in 2021, and expects silver prices to be at around $22 per ounce in 2020 and $30 per ounce next year.

Non-energy commodities could see an “immediate upside” as the market balances tighten ahead of expectations on strong demand from China and weather-driven risks, the Goldman Sachs analysts said.

The bank maintained a “neutral” view on commodities in the near term and “overweight” in the medium term.

Precious Metals

O2Gold Shares Rise 7.14% After Reporting Intersects 20.11 g/t Gold Over 0.7 Metres At Aurora

O2Gold (TSXV: OTGO) last night reported on its first drill results from its Aurora Property in Colombia…

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O2Gold Shares Rise 7.14% After Reporting Intersects 20.11 g/t Gold Over 0.7 Metres At Aurora

O2Gold (TSXV: OTGO) last night reported on its first drill results from its Aurora Property in Colombia. The firm had previously halted trading in its equity due to the assay results received.

The first drill hole reported by the company comes from the Aurora Tunnel within the Main Aurora Vein, where O2Gold encounter 20.11 g/t gold and 3.30 g/t silver over 0.7 metres, within a larger interval of 9.19 g/t gold and 1.89 g/t silver over 1.6 metres. Mineralization was encountered at just 97.4 metres of depth.

The hole, referred to as AUR-21-001, also encountered 12.30 g/t silver over 3 metres, at a depth of just 8.70 metres within fragmented quartz veins. The hole was drilled to a total depth of 220 metres.

The hole marks the first within an ongoing 8,000 metre drill campaign, which currently has two drills turning on the firms property. Four holes have been completed to date, with assays pending on three holes presently.

O2Gold last traded at $0.21 on the TSX Venture.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and O2Gold Inc. The author is currently long the equity. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post O2Gold Intersects 20.11 g/t Gold Over 0.7 Metres At Aurora appeared first on the deep dive.

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Top Silver Stocks To Watch This Week

Will These Silver Stocks Go Up? The market for silver stocks has…
The post Top Silver Stocks To Watch This Week appeared first on Gold Stocks to Buy,…

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Will These Silver Stocks Go Up?

The market for silver stocks has been quite an interesting one to watch in the market in recent times. The pandemic caused silver assets to skyrocket in price throughout the last year and a half. The percentage gains for many silver assets were higher than gold stocks. This brought a lot of new investors to the metal that may have overlooked it before. One other recent event also brought a lot of new people to silver investing. You have certainly heard of the GameStop situation where Reddit traders boosted the price of the stock.

Well in early February the same thing happened to silver prices as a result of retail traders according to the mainstream media. But Reddit traders quickly stated that it was not their doing. This caused the price of the metal to pull back. What this did do, was attract a lot of new eyes and investors to silver related assets. The price of silver has been able to remain relatively stable at the moment.

So what else is affecting silver prices? Jobless reports often affect the price of silver and gold. It will be interesting to see the effect that unemployment and the economy has on the metal in the future. There are many great silver stocks to watch at the moment despite the volatility in the market. Let’s take a look at four silver stocks that show market potential right now.

Top Silver Stocks To Watch

  1. First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG)
  2. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE: FSM)
  3. Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK)

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG)

First Majestic Silver Corp. is a mining company that primarily focuses on acquisition of land, exploration, development, and production of mineral assets. The company’s biggest projects include silver production in Mexico. Currently, First Majestic has 100% interest in the San Simas mine, Santa Elena mine, and holds interest a variety of other land too.

On August 16th, First Majestic reported its second quarter financial results for 2021. The company’s revenue achieved a new record, at $154.1 million. Its average realized silver price per ounce increased quarter over quarter as well.

President and CEO Keith Neumeyer said, “As a result of the higher revenues, our quarterly dividend increased by approximately 33% when compared to the prior quarterly payment. The mining units generated $29.4 million in mine operating earnings due to strong production and higher realized metal prices.” With this in mind, is AG stock a contender for your list of silver stocks to watch?

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE: FSM)

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is a mining corporation with a focus on exploration, extraction, and processing of precious metals. It actively explores for gold, silver, zinc, and lead. Its main properties include the Caylloma and San Jose mines, as well as the Lindero gold project in Argentina.

On June 28th, Fortuna and Roxgold Inc. announced a business combination. President and CEO of Fortuna Jorge A. Ganoza said, “The successfully completed business combination creates a low-cost intermediate gold and silver producer with four operating mines and a permitted development project. The company will benefit from a robust exploration pipeline and expanded presence in the Americas and West Africa, two of the fastest growing precious metals producing regions in the world.”

On September 20th, the company announced changes in its management team. David Volkert retired as the VP of Exploration in Latin America, which goes into effect on September 30th. Other than this, the company has not released a large amount of recent updates. So now it will be interesting to see where FSM stock goes from here. Will you add FSM to your silver stock watchlist?

Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK)

Endeavour Silver Corp. is a silver stock that just went up in the market. This company acquires land, explores it, and develops it. Endeavour works on the processing, refining, and reclamation at its mineral properties. Most of Endeavour’s primary assets are located in both Mexico and Chile. Endeavour for the most part only searches for silver and gold at its mines.

Back in August, the company announced its second-quarter financial results. The CEO of the company, Dan Dickson said, “From a financial standpoint, our Q2 performance was stronger than the respective period last year, as revenue, cash flow and earnings were all higher. However, our operating costs are clearly not where we want them to be. We are working to optimize our operating cost profile in the second half of 2021.”

Endeavour’s metal production grew 80% during the quarter, and its gold production grew 92%. These numbers were in line with Endeavour’s guidance for the year. Its net revenue in the second quarter was up 136% to $47.7 million. Now the company has completed the acquisition of the Bruner Gold Project in Nye County, Nevada. With this in mind, will you add EXK to your mining stock list?

Silver Stocks To Watch

There are plenty of silver stocks to watch in the market in 2021. Some think that there is not an opportunity to invest in silver stocks at the moment, but there are still many companies with potential in the market.

The post Top Silver Stocks To Watch This Week appeared first on Gold Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | GoldStocks.com.

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Precious Metals

Inca One Gold Posts Record Production Figures For August 2021

Records continue to be beat by Inca One Gold (TSXV: INCA), whom this morning reported its best-ever processing results. The
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Records continue to be beat by Inca One Gold (TSXV: INCA), whom this morning reported its best-ever processing results. The firm managed to post record production for the month of August, with production improving 163% on a year over year basis.

Production in August hit 6,838 tonnes, or 221 tonnes per day, the best ever monthly performance for the company. Production occurred at both of the firms plants, and beat the previous record of 6,581 tonnes.

Gold produced came in at 2,309 ounces, while ore deliveries amounted to 6,982 tonnes – which points to the potential for a very strong September for the company as well. Gold production was up 57% year over year, while deliveries improved 131%.

“It validates our business model and operational aptitude that we were able to so quickly and effectively deploy the working capital received from our second Gold Prepayment Facility received in the first week of August,” commented CEO Ed Kelly. “The Company, now armed with sufficient working capital, its only 10% off its record processing pace set in 2018,” he continued.

The results continue to be driven by the working capital the firm was able to access via a $9.0 million gold pre-payment facility. A similar facility drove record results for the firm in the months of May and July earlier this year, with the working capital expected to continue to provide strong results for the firm on a go-forward basis.

Inca One Gold last traded at $0.34 on the TSX Venture.


FULL DISCLOSURE: Inca One Gold Corp is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. The author has been compensated to cover Inca One Gold Corp on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.

The post Inca One Gold Posts Record Production Figures For August 2021 appeared first on the deep dive.

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