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Grab a Stunning 24-kt Solid Gold Bracelet at Low Bullion Prices

Here’s a Christmas gift that doubles as a great investment… For a limited time Money Metals is offering wearable 24-kt gold bullion at unheard of low…



Here’s a Christmas gift that doubles as a great investment…

For a limited time Money Metals is offering wearable 24-kt gold bullion at unheard of low premiums – just a hair above melt value.

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Compare this superb value with the sky-high markups we uncovered on gold bracelets from leading retailers:

  • Macy’s “solid gold” 14-kt polished bangle bracelet sells for $10,300! In spite of being touted as solid gold, 14-kt gold is a mere 58.3 percent gold and over 40 percent “other metals.” The markup above melt value on this item is unknowable, as the seller chooses not to disclose the weight of the bracelet to the consumer.
  • Bulgari’s gold polished bracelet at $4,600 has somewhat more gold at 18-kt, but that’s still only 75 percent pure gold. Like Macy’s, the actual weight is not disclosed. You are right to wonder why these sellers wouldn’t want you to know how much gold you’re really getting for your money.
  • Sarraf Jewelry’s 10mm Domed Omega Bracelet sells for $1,981 and contains 1.11 oz of 14-kt gold. That’s just 0.65 oz of pure gold, making the retail price 75 percent over melt value.

As in informed precious metals buyer, you would never buy any gold item without knowing how many ounces of actual gold you are getting for your money. And you’d never pay double or triple the melt value!

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Our pure gold bracelets are manufactured with care here in the U.S. and stamped with “.9999” purity on the inside face. Give one of these bracelets as a gift; put one on your own wrist or simply add them to your holding. We will ship them in a gift style box with a certificate of authenticity.

Gold Bracelet Model Photo

The classic and simple design is suitable for either a man or a woman.

The bracelet has a metal weight of 1 troy oz, is 0.5 cm in diameter, and fits wrists up to 8.5 inches. The bracelet will expand or contract to provide a comfortable and secure fit to any wrist – man or woman.

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Precious Metals

Government Handling Of COVID Has Been “A Crime”, Expect More Selloffs: Trader

Government Handling Of COVID Has Been "A Crime", Expect More Selloffs: Trader

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

This is Part 1 of an exclusive…

Government Handling Of COVID Has Been “A Crime”, Expect More Selloffs: Trader

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

This is Part 1 of an exclusive interview with Rosemont Seneca, a U.S. based professional trader focused on event-driven and distressed situations. Rosemont spent their career on the buy-side working as a financials analyst and their investing/trading style is inspired in equal parts by Icahn and Druckenmiller.

Like me, Rosemont is not an RIA and does not hold licenses. Market commentary and opinion expressed in this interview are personal views, not investment advice or solicitation for business.

QTR’s Note: The point of this blog is to bring to the reader information and perspectives they, or the mainstream media, may not otherwise find on their own. The cool thing about FinTwit is that you get to meet people based on their ideas and investing acumen and not their identities. I have been following Rosemont on Twitter for years and love their perspective and takes on the market – their takes often stand at odds with my own and they have helped me broaden my horizon and be less bearish on markets, while still maintaining my skepticism about monetary policy. They have chosen to remain completely anonymous with me, which I respect, and I have never personally met or otherwise know anything about the identity of Rosemont. That doesn’t matter, however, because I like their ideas and their commentary. You can follow Rosemont on Twitter here.

Part 2 of this interview can be found here.

Bernard Baruch, 1919 / Photo used for @rosemontseneca’s Twitter profile

Q: Hi Rosemont. Thanks for agreeing to an interview for my readers despite wanting to stay anonymous. Right off the bat: why do you use Bernard Baruch for your Twitter profile photo?

Baruch is one of the most fascinating Wall Street characters of 20th Century. He has tremendous intuition and gut instinct for the markets, macro economics and politics and he reminds us that the three are intertwined at all times

That’s a great segue to my next question: you recently got very bullish on gold when you hadn’t been in the past – what caused that shift in attitude?

We saw a global risk contagion event in capital markets today (11/26); Bitcoin lost over 8.0% of its value, the S&P dropped -2.2% and gold ended the session flat on the day after a mostly positive session. We expect more days like this in 2022.

This is the first time since the post-GFC period in 2009 that we’ve purchased or held gold instruments in our portfolios. At present we own an 8.0% position in the GLD ETF and periodically traffic in Barrick Gold and Newmont equities. Recall that during the Q4 2018 ‘Taper Tantrum’ and most acute phase of the COVID dislocation in Q1-Q2 2020, gold futures, ETFs, and gold miner equities protected your wealth from severe capital market drawdowns.

Gold is an umbrella we hope will keep us dry if it rains very hard next year.

Holding gold in a portfolio today is a pragmatic ‘TINA’ bet borne of healthy caution in the wake of a multi-year equity bubble that has begun to run amok.

The reality is gold is not an optimal investment for compounding wealth in the long-run; owning the GLD ETF since inception in 2004 has returned a roughly 8.0% CAGR which is adequate for a pension fund or retiree but relatively mediocre vs. the alternatives.

Investors are better off owning Walmart, Costco, McDonald’s or Starbucks and grow our capital tax-efficiently with high-ROE/RoIC ‘compounders’ that pay dividends. The gold ‘streamers’ such as Wheaton and Franco-Nevada however happen to be very interesting investments with compelling business models that have generated compounder-like returns for Shareholders over the last two to three decades.

We’ve come a long way from the market depths of March 2020 and perhaps it’s time to take a more cautious stance going into year-end. We are currently operating on the premise that the Nasdaq and S&P could see negative returns in 2022. If the indices see a drawdown of 10-20% (or greater) we expect gold to appreciate or hold its value in real terms next year. There are labor and supply chain shortages globally that will definitely impact the gold mining industry. If CPI hits escape velocity and reaches 8-10% higher next year, we’ll be content with a 10% allocation in gold as we expect institutional and speculator capital flows to put a firm bid behind the yellow metal.

You’re one of the very few out there calling the entire crypto space a bubble. What’s the key argument in differentiating crypto from other assets? Is crypto worth zero or is there a value and, if there is, where does the value come from?

In the last few years market participants have adopted a pseudo-religious attitude towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a whole host of crypto currencies. People have come to either ‘believe’ or ‘not believe’ in the asset class and its prospects.

What we can definitely say today is that there are over 14,850 different crypto currencies trading on over 430 venues with a combined ‘market capitalization’ of roughly $2.5 trillion dollars. To our best knowledge these assets produce zero cash flow or dividends, exhibit very high volatility, remain subject to boom-bust sequences, and are used as an apparatus for elaborate criminal hacking schemes.


The average daily volume of these 14,000+ crypto currencies is roughly $150 billion per day. We estimate that approximately 90% of this turnover is driven by purely speculative or gambling capital flows from small retail traders. If we assume that roughly 2-3% of average daily volume consists of bona fide commercial transactions (including portfolio investment), this leaves almost $10 billion of daily volume that derives from money laundering, fraud and other illicit schemes etc.

Some governments have rushed to legalize, adopt or allow for crypto currencies to proliferate in their economy for fear of stymieing or not supporting innovation. Others have taken a hardline stance and begun to outlaw the usage of crypto in their banking and financial system. We are of the view that Bitcoin-like protocols present a clear & present danger to many emerging market countries’ ability to issue currency and sovereign debt over the next decade. As the true nature of these crypto assets become more evident, we’ll see more and more countries outright ban and prosecute their usage in their economies.

Bitcoin and Ethereum (combined 60% of total crypto market capitalization) may very well survive and find a way to thrive due to ‘fiat-by-consensus’ adoption. Under that scenario they clearly will not trade to zero. But that doesn’t negate the presence of a current bubble where 99% of cryptos are of near-zero ultimate value. Promoters have come to euphemize cryptocurrencies as ‘projects’ but most cryptocurrencies are outright frauds.  

We think it’s time for crypto investors and regulators to have a more honest, empirical framework for discussing the intrinsic value and risks of these crypto assets. If we can handicap real estate on cap rates and LTV ratios and equites on P/E ratios and cashflow yields, we should adopt a framework for Bitcoin and Ethereum etc (Dogecoin?) that doesn’t border on the pseudo-religion.

wrote an entire article based off your assumption that we are once again in a 1999-2000 style crash setup. What were the signs that helped you recognize this?

In the wake of the COVID crisis and ensuing Monetary/Fiscal stimulus, too many people with very little financial literacy or professional training took up day-trading of equities, options and crypto currencies as a hobby and eventual vocation. The prudent, cautious amongst us (Warren Buffett included) were seemingly left behind in the speculative frenzy that ensued in the summer of 2020.

We’re often reminded to not confuse investing/trading luck with skill. Regardless, many very young people made a lot of money in a very short period and thought that this process was somehow normal or even sustainable. To be perfectly clear: there was nothing normal about the Meme Stock frenzy, SPAC mania, or crypto and NFT bubble that erupted.

When we witnessed trillion-dollar market caps such as Tesla and Nvidia trading like biotechs in the frenzy of Q4 of 2021, we decided we’d seen enough of this equity market mania. It was eerily reminiscent of Cisco, Lucent, Intel in 1999. The equity market today feels bloated and reckless; it’s probably a good time to start taking chips off the table and leave the party while people are still having fun.

November 2021 was a harsh reminder that valuations and capital structures eventually do matter; people will learn the hard way.

What are the most likely catalysts to set the market off moving lower?

Nobody rings the bell at a market top, but negative catalysts include:

–       inability to eradicate COVID in Europe & Asia will keep global trade and travel routes shut for another year

–       cascade of lingering supply chain woes = potentially very recessionary

–       debilitating energy price spikes in 2022-2023 = looming stagflation

–       margin loan balances are at historically very high levels

–       continuation of the Tech selloff we witnessed in Q4 2021

–       fraud & accounting malpractice (always prevalent in manias)

–       Fed signaling significantly higher interest rates in the aftermath of inflation

–       Geopolitics: a potential Kamala Harris Presidency would see Russia and China turn belligerent overnight

What’s your take on how we’re handling Covid? You’ve mentioned what happened to our economy over the last 18 months was “economic terrorism”. Will we learn – either through people revolting or negative consequences – or will we continue down this Orwellian path?

It’s very disappointing to see how politicized the pandemic became in the United States. It obviously didn’t help that COVID struck in an Election year, but there will be plenty of blame to go around the table when a proper post-mortem analysis is conducted years from now. We hope that Bethany McLean (Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room) will eventually write a thoroughly unbiased expose on the timeline of policy decisions in 2020. We’re of the firm belief that our Leaders in Washington D.C. did more harm than good in the early months of this pandemic.

We can safely conclude the 2020 COVID shutdowns are the direct cause for the supply chain dislocations and hyperinflation that Americans are about to suffer. The shutdowns that we witnessed in the United States were a flawed policy decision akin to willful pilot error or ‘economic terrorism;’ Federal and State Governments suffocated millions of livelihoods and permanently destroyed hundreds of thousands of perfectly viable small & medium family-owned businesses. The larger, better capitalized multinational corporations capable of accessing capital markets and Government Stimulus Programs not only survived, they eventually thrived.

What happened can only be described as a crime.

Part 2 of this interview, where we discuss inflation, the Biden administration, why China banned crypto and more, can be found here.


It should be assumed I or Rosemont Seneca has positions in any security or commodity mentioned in this article. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Neither I nor RS hold licenses or are investing professional. None of this is financial advice. Positions can always change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/30/2021 – 15:30

Author: Tyler Durden

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9 Stocks to Buy Before Inflation Fears Take Hold

Despite the pandemic, the stock market has had a decent year so far. Right now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14% year-to-date (YTD) while the…

Despite the pandemic, the stock market has had a decent year so far. Right now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14% year-to-date (YTD) while the S&P 500 is up over 23% YTD. But with the threat of inflation currently stoking fears in the fourth quarter, now is the time to start considering inflation stocks.

Inflation stocks provide some protection when prices begin to skyrocket. In October, the consumer price index rose 6.2% from a year ago, which is the biggest increase in 30 years. Core inflation also rose by an alarming rate, moving higher by 4.6% from a year ago.

But all is not lost. CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer says there are plenty of ways to grow your portfolio even when inflation rises. Cramer says that some of the best inflation stocks come from banking, large pharmaceuticals and tech companies. He noted the following:

“That’s a huge chunk of this market, unlike any combination I’ve ever seen. Plenty of winners out there if you just stop freaking out and start looking at the opportunities.”

Other proven strategies include looking for solid dividend growth, as well as seeking names that help consumers stretch their paychecks.

Here are nine solid inflation stocks to buy in Q4:

  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
  • American Express (NYSE:AXP)
  • Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
  • Dollar General (NYSE:DG)
  • Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR)
  • Newmont (NYSE:NEM)
  • Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)
  • Target (NYSE:TGT)
  • Walmart (NYSE:WMT)

Inflation Stocks to Buy: Apple (AAPL)

Source: WeDesing /

First up on this list of inflation stocks, Apple is one of those names that could possibly be considered inflation-proof. With a market capitalization of more than $2.6 trillion as well as more than $191 billion in cash on hand, AAPL stock can easily withstand any downturn in the market.

But you shouldn’t expect Apple to drop at all. Returns so far in 2021 are 24%. The company should also see strong sales numbers for the holiday shopping season in Q4. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says Apple was expected to sell 10 million iPhones over the Black Friday weekend.

This company’s fiscal Q4 earnings came in a $1.24 per share, up around 70% from a year ago. For the quarter, sales also rose 29% to $83.4 billion. However, revenue missed analyst expectations due to semiconductor chip shortages.

American Express (AXP)

the American Express logo etched into woodSource: First Class Photography /

American Express isn’t the biggest or best-known name in the credit card space. However, AXP stock may be one of the best inflation stocks to buy during these inflationary times.

Why? Well, American Express caters to business clients as well as individuals who are more well-off. It makes 82% of its money “from discount fees, card fees, travel-related commissions and other revenue.” Only 18% of its money comes from interest.

In the third quarter, AXP delivered $2.27 per share and revenue of $10.9 billion. Both numbers beat analyst estimates.

This pick is up nearly 28% so far in 2021. Currently, it trades at a forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.56 times and a forward price-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.93 times.

Inflation Stocks to Buy: Chevron (CVX)

chevron stockSource: LesPalenik /

What’s one of the first thing that investors do when they fear inflation? They buy oil. One hedge fund, Man Group, says that energy commodities were the “best performing asset class” in the last eight inflationary periods. That’s why a major oil company like Chevron is a solid pick when looking for inflation stocks.

Chevron is already up more than 37% YTD, but even at these lofty highs CVX stock is far off the highs it reached back in 2018. Right now, it’s coming off a huge Q3, in which the company posted its best quarterly profit in eight years. Net income was $6.11 billion, versus a loss of $207 million in the prior-year period. Finally, cash flow from operations came in at $8.5 billion.

What happened? Of course, Chevron and other oil companies suffered greatly last year when the oil market collapsed because of the pandemic. Because of that, Chevron made big budget cuts. Now that’s being reflected in this year’s profits. In fact, Chevron says that its spending so far this year is 22% lower than a year ago. That gives it an outsized profit margin.

On top of it all, CVX stock pays a great 4.68% dividend.

Dollar General (DG)

Dollar General (DG) store front with yellow store sign, middaySource: Jonathan Weiss /

Inflation means that consumers will have less money to spend for both necessary and discretionary spending. For instance, there are already reports of meat and other staples costing more today. Because of that, I always consider dollar stores like Dollar General when I think about inflation stocks.

Based in Tennessee, Dollar General operates more than 17,600 stores across some 46 states. This company’s strategy is to put stores in neighborhoods in order to spread its footprint as wide as possible. Once inside, customers can fine low-cost food, snacks, cleanings supplies, health and beauty products, clothing and seasonal items.

For the year, Dollar General stock is up 6%. Revenue is up by around 53% since 2017, according to Seeking Alpha. What’s more, the company has a reasonable forward P/E of 22 times.

When it comes to DG stock, analyst sentiment is solid. Out of 27 analysts, 22 are bullish or very bullish. Meanwhile, 3 other analysts remain neutral on DG stock.

Inflation Stocks to Buy: Dollar Tree (DLTR)

store front of a Dollar Tree (DLTR) location with green signageSource: Weiss

Based in Virginia, Dollar Tree is a different kind of discount retailer than Dollar General. With more than 15,000 stores across 48 states as well as in Canada, Dollar Tree buys bulk items and sells them at low prices.

How low? Until recently, items in the store were a dollar (hence the name), but this pick of the inflation stocks recently announced that it was raising the prices of items to $1.25. Additionally, according to NPR, Dollar Tree has been testing higher-priced items for a few months, including adding $3 and $5 products in its Dollar Tree Plus stores.

If nothing else, raising prices will allow Dollar Tree to expand and sell a wider variety of sizes and products.

Most recently, Q3 earnings came in at $6.42 billion and earnings at 96 cents per share. Both exceeded analyst expectations of $6.41 billion and 95 cents per share. Currently, DLTR stock is up a whopping 25% YTD in 2021.

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont (NEM) logo on a mobile phone screenSource: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock

Next up on this list of inflation stocks is Newmont. Gold is a natural hedge against inflation and a market downturn. Sure, cryptocurrencies are flashier and have had a much higher return in the last few months. Still, NEM stock is a solid pick here.

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner. What’s more, Joule Financial’s Quint Tatro recently told CNBC that NEM is one of his top picks against inflation. The company added to its position in NEM stock after the consumer price index report came out.

“Newmont has an incredible balance sheet. It is truly a proxy for gold. It should move in lockstep with gold if we’re right, and we get paid almost 4% to wait […] I think it will do very well […] You’re getting it at a discount, and I believe that it will continue to rise with gold if we continue to see core inflation move up as well.”

Right now, NEM stock is down by around 8% so far this year. But Fundamental Research analyst Siddharth Rajeev maintained his “buy” rating on the stock, setting a price target of $63.10. That represents more than 14% upside today, which would be welcome during an inflationary run.

Inflation Stocks to Buy: Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia (NVDA) logo displayed on phone screenSource: rafapress /

According to VandaTrack, which is a Vanda Research flow tracker that measures net stock purchases, NVDA stock was one of the most-purchased equities on Wall Street in November.

Why? Well, Nvidia is absolutely on fire. Up by more than 140% so far in 2021, Nvidia is currently priced at more than $320 per share.

Recognized as one of the world’s biggest semiconductor companies, Nvidia is in an enviable position. Remember, we are still in a chip shortage — and those chips are needed to run everything from electric vehicles (EVs) to computers and small electronics.

If supply and demand rules the world, then this name is in the catbird seat. And that demand is not going to go away just because of inflation.

This pick of the inflation stocks reported its Q3 earnings on Nov. 17. For the period, revenue was up 50% year-over-year (YOY) to $7.1 billion, beating analyst expectations of $6.81 billion. Earnings per share was $1.17, which topped expectations of $1.11.

Target (TGT)

Image of the Target (TGT) logo on a storefront.Source: jejim /

Next up on this pick of inflation stocks, Target is a discount retailer that operates higher-end stores than Dollar General and its peers. Presently, TGT stock is up nearly 40% so far in 2021 but slipped after the company reported Q3 earnings in mid-November.

What happened? Well, the company did manage to beat analyst expectations in earnings and revenue. Plus, it raised its outlook. But Target also warned that its margins would be pressured in the coming months as labor costs increase and supply-chain disruptions persist.

No worries, though. That dip is just a solid buying opportunity in TGT stock. One Bank of America analyst also agrees, according to CNBC. Analysts at Raymond James and DA Davidson raised their price targets for Target shares as well.

Inflation Stocks to Buy: Walmart (WMT)

Image of Walmart (WMT) logo on Walmart store with clear blue sky in the backgroundSource: Jonathan Weiss /

That brings us to the last entry on this list of inflation stocks: Walmart. This name is the biggest retailer on the planet and boasts revenues of $519 billion according to the National Retail Federation. Walmart operates 10,500 stores across 24 countries.

With its expanding footprint (Walmart owns Sam’s Club, among other brands) and its growing online presence, Walmart had a solid Q3. But what really made the difference was the company’s grocery offerings. Walmart says its size helped it navigate supply chains and keep shelves stocked. CFO Brett Biggs told CNBC the following:

“We’ve always been an inflation fighter for customers […] Our scale and the product breadth that we have allows us to do things in a way that is beneficial to customers and beneficial to shareholders.”

For the quarter, revenue came in at $140.53 billion, versus the $135.6 billion that analysts expected. What’s more, earnings per share came in at $1.45 versus expectations of $1.40.

On the date of publication, Patrick Sanders did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines.

Patrick Sanders is a freelance writer and editor in Maryland, and from 2015 to 2019 was head of the investment advice section at U.S. News & World Report. Follow him on Twitter at @1patricksanders. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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Author: Patrick Sanders

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Clear signs of *deceleration* in house price increases, but no sign of actual declines yet

  – by New Deal democratThe veritable explosive increase in house prices has been one of the biggest economic stories of the past year. And because it…


 – by New Deal democrat

The veritable explosive increase in house prices has been one of the biggest economic stories of the past year. And because it feeds into “owner’s equivalent rent” with a lag, is likely to have a big effect on consumer inflation readings in next year as well.

This morning both the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported for September, and both showed a slight deceleration in the increases in house prices.

As a preliminary matter, both the FHFA and CaseShiller indexes have risen almost an identical 250% since January 1991, when the FHFA index began:

During that time, usually the FHFA index has decelerated, and made a peak or trough a month or two before the Case Shiller index (note for example, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2010, and 2013). 

With that in mind, here are the YoY% change in house prices as measured by both indexes, plus that of new home prices (gold) zoomed in on the last 5 years (again, note that the FHFA index turned slightly ahead of the Case Shiller index in 2018 and 2020):

Last month I noted that price gains in the FHFA index had decelerated at least slightly, but that the Case Shiller Index hadn’t followed suit yet. This month the YoY% increase in prices as measured by the Case Shiller index did decelerate slightly (-0.3%) to 19.5%, while the deceleration in the FHFA Index continued, down -0.8% to 17.7%, and from the peak two months ago of 19.3% YoY.

In the last two months I have also noted that median existing house prices as reported by decelerated from a 23% YoY gain to 13%, likely indicating the peak in actual prices had either just happened or was imminent. Neither the FHFA nor Case Shiller indexes are confirming that, but there is now persuasive evidence of a *slowdown* in price increases which, if it continues at its current rate of deceleration, would result in an actual peak about 6 months from now.
P.S. It is important to add that while house prices in real terms have set multiple new records this year, average monthly mortgage payments deflated by average wages are nowhere near their 2006 peak, courtesy of 3% vs. 6.5% mortgage rates.

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