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Here’s One Simple Example Of How Absurd Build Back Better’ Is

Here’s One Simple Example Of How Absurd Build Back Better’ Is

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In early January 1964, barely…

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This article was originally published by Zero Hedge

Here’s One Simple Example Of How Absurd Build Back Better’ Is

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In early January 1964, barely six weeks after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, US President Lyndon Johnson delivered a speech to the American people in which he declared an “unconditional war.”

But he didn’t declare war on Vietnam. Or Cuba. Or the Soviet Union.

Johnson declared war on poverty.

And in his State of the Union address he told his fellow Americans that it would take more than “a single piece of legislation” to eradicate poverty.

So they got to work preparing a series of expensive programs to create jobs, build affordable housing, establish new entitlement programs, and invest in vocational training.

It goes without saying that this spending bonanza kicked off a steep increase in inflation. But more importantly it turns out that most of these programs were utter failures.

One of the best examples is the Job Corps, an initiative established in 1964 to provide free vocational training to young people.

The Job Corps was something of a pet project for Lyndon Johnson; he believed that “one thousand dollars invested in salvaging an unemployable youth today can return $40,000 or more in his lifetime.”

This is a long-standing argument for increased public investment in education.

And yet according to a long-term study of the Job Corps published in 2018 by the agency’s own Inspector General, the program has been a terrible investment for the American taxpayer.

The Job Corps spends $1.7 billion of taxpayers’ money each year to train around 66,000 people; this works out to be $25,000 per student per year, which is already more expensive than many public universities.

Yet Job Corps’ own Inspector General found that “more than half” of the participants in his study “did not have a beneficial outcome.”

A later report by the US Department of Labor determined that a small group of Job Corps graduates could earn, on average, $275 more per year than non-graduates who work in similar jobs.

Wonderful. But given that these jobs are at the lowest possible tax bracket, the additional tax revenue per Job Corps graduate is less than $30 per person.

That makes the Job Corps’ annual Return on Investment about 0.1%, at best. More likely it loses money and provides no real benefit to graduates.

So why would any sane individual continue investing in this program? Even the New York Times called it a complete failure and “a little bit like prison”.

And yet the Job Corps is set to be the proud beneficiary of $1.5 billion, courtesy of the Build Back Better Act that passed the US House of Representatives on Friday.

This new funding will roughly double the program’s budget.

Now, if you’re spending money and you’re getting a fantastic return on investment, then cost shouldn’t be an issue.

The problem is spending money and failing to achieve any meaningful outcome. And that tends to be the government’s track record.

LBJ believed in 1964 that investing in job training would generate a huge return on investment. But six decades of Job Corps data show that they completely failed to achieve this vision.

Instead they created a job training program that is more expensive than most public universities, yet generates no real benefit for its graduates or for taxpayers.

But politicians only think about money. If they increase an agency’s budget and throw money at an issue, they feel like they’ve done their job. They never look at performance or execution.

And this is the real problem with Build Back Better. Much has been said about the cost of the legislation, including those who say it will “cost nothing”.

(The initial cost is actually $1.7 trillion, and the long term costs look like they’ll probably top $4 trillion.)

But focusing on cost really misses the point. The real question is– will there be any return on investment?

The failure of Job Corps provides a pretty clear answer.

Build Back Better is a whopping 2,468 pages. Buried in that text, they’re creating thousands of new programs, just like Job Corps.

The politicians keep insisting that these are all “investments”. But they never conduct a honest assessment of investment performance.

They just keep writing checks and spending other people’s money with a dangerous fanaticism, and absolutely no consideration of execution and performance.

And just like LBJ’s War on Poverty, Build Back Better will likely lead to much higher inflation.

After all, it’s not difficult to predict what might happen when they spend money endlessly and generate zero return on investment.

LBJ at least got one thing right.

In his original State of the Union address in 1964, he acknowledged that the private sector (NOT the government) had the real power to create jobs, enhance prosperity, and alleviate poverty.

He argued that cutting taxes, for example, would “create new jobs and new markets in every area of this land”, and he told Congress, “We need a tax cut now to keep this country moving. . . Our taxpayers surely deserve it.”

Further, he stated, “the most damaging and devastating thing you can do to any businessman in America is to keep him in doubt and to keep him guessing on what our tax policy is.”

Today, however, politicians hold the opposite view. They believe that tax increases are the path to prosperity. They believe jobs are created through more rules, more laws, and more money in the hands of the government.

And they’re delighted to keep people guessing about tax policy, including threatening retroactive tax changes.

This entire ethos is completely destructive… not to mention highly inflationary. But we’ll tackle that issue another time.

*  *  *

We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/23/2021 – 21:00






Author: Tyler Durden

Precious Metals

These 29 Analysts See Silver Going Up Dramatically This Decade

More and more analysts are forecasting a significant increase in the price of silver over the balance of the decade and below are their projections.
The…

More and more analysts are forecasting a significant increase in the price of silver over the balance of the decade and below are their projections.

An original article by Lorimer Wilson, Managing Editor of munKNEE.com – Your KEY To Making Money!

1. Goldrunner: $800 to $1,200 by 2025; $5,300 by 2030/32

“My fractal analysis chart work on Silver points to a potential price for Silver of something like $800 to $1,200 a bit later than 2025 and $5,300 by the end of this decade or early in the next based on Gold reaching Jim Sinclair’s forecast of $80,500 and using a 1 to 16 ratio of Silver to Gold.” (personal email)

2. Keith Neumeyer: $300 to $1,000

“Silver is an extremely critical metal – a strategic metal – and the investment community will figure it out eventually” and, when they do, he believes the white metal could reach the $130 level and, if gold were to hit $10,000, he could see silver at $1,000. Source

3. Hubert Moolman: +$675

“The 70s pattern is very similar to the pattern that currently exists. Therefore, I do not think it is wishful thinking that silver will reach the target of $675 as a minimum.” Continue reading…

4. Egon von Greyerz: $600 to $1,000

“If we assume $10,000 for gold and a gold:silver ratio decline to the historical average of 15, we would see a silver price of $666…If we look at silver adjusted for real inflation based on ShadowStatistics, the $50 high in 1980 would equal to $950 today so silver at between $600 and $1,000 is not an unrealistic targetContinue reading…

5. Satori Traders: $50 by 2023; $1,350 by 2028

“My long-term forecast for Silver is $600 per ounce.” Source

6. Gary Christenson: $100 to $500 in 5-7 years; +$500 by 2030

“Silver prices for the next decade are dependent upon many unknowns but a ‘more of the same’ financial world suggests silver prices will rise toward $100 in the next 5 – 7 years. A more aggressive chart interpretation shows prices for silver rallying toward $200 – $300. Indeed, if the powers-that-be create or can’t stop hyper-inflation of the dollar, $500 silver will look inexpensive by the end of the decade.”   Continue reading…

7. Peter Krauth: $300+

‘I think silver’s ultimate peak could be $300, and I won’t rule out possibly even higher.” Source

8. David Smith: $166 to $250

“[If my forecast of $10,000 gold is realized, as I think it will then] you could see $166 silver, and if…[the gold:silver ratio] drops down to 40:1, which is not out of the question, [you could easily see] $250 silver.” Source

9. Mike Maloney: $100 to $200 in 5 years

“Investment demand for silver bullion has risen sharply and, with the silver market being so tiny, it doesn’t take much investment to have an out-sized impact on its price. Silver is dramatically undervalued and represents a very compelling investment opportunity. My prediction for silver 5 years out is $100-$200.” Source 

10. Jason Hamlin: $169 by end of 2025

“The silver bull has awakened and when silver finally breaks out, the move tends to be very explosive! I think we could see silver climb to $169…by the end of 2025.″ Source 

11. Nick Giambruno: +160 

“Once the dollar starts to lose its value in earnest…people will panic into precious metals just like they did in the ’70s and ’80s, and much of that money will make its way into the tiny silver market (roughly 1/10th the size of the gold market). This will cause the price to spike above $160. It’s a predictable pattern. Bottom line, the stars are aligned for a silver price spike for the record books and now is the perfect time to get in.” Continue reading…

12. Chris Vermeulen: $90 to $550

“We believe silver will soon…move up to well above $85 per troy ounce. Ultimately, we estimate it will likely top somewhere between $90 and $550.” Continue reading…

13. CoinPriceForecast.com: $84.81 by end of 2020; $100.12 by the end of 2032

“Silver price will hit $30 by the end of 2021 and then $40 by the end of 2023. Silver will rise to $50 within the year of 2024, $60 in 2026, $70 in 2027,   $75 in 2028, $80 in 2029, $90 in 2031 and $100 in 2032.” Source

14. Jeff Clark: $30 in 2021 to +$100 in 5 years

“My most confident prediction is that over the next five years, the silver price is going to increase a minimum of $100.” Source

15. Metals Focus: +$100

“See silver prices pushing “well above” $30 an ounce.

16. Paul Mladjenovic: +$100

“Triple-digit silver—$100 or more—is a possibility in the near future.” Source

17. David Morgan: $100

“Assuming a $4,000 gold price target in two to three years’ time, which is roughly a 100% increase from current levels, and assuming a normalization of the gold-silver ratio to 40-1, then silver should be trading at $100 by the time gold doubles in value.” Source

18. Gov Capital: $70 to $95 in 5 years

“Based on our custom algorithm we predict that silver will range between $70 and $95 in 5 years time.” Source

19. Mark O’Byrne: $50 to $100

“It is important investors focus on gold and silver’s value as hedging and safe haven assets rather than their nominal price highs in dollars.” That being said he believes silver could rise to between $50 and $100. Source

20. Dumb Money: $62

“History does serve as a guide for what’s normal and, based on the simple historical average, the price of silver should be about $62.” Source

21. Andrew Hecht: +$50

“Silver’s consolidation period and tightening price ranges could be the prelude to a new record high above the 1980 $50.36 peak in the COMEX futures market.” Source

22. CPM Group: +$50

“We fully expect silver to hit a new all-time high above $50.”

23. Lorimer Wilson: $40 to $60 by 2025

Every time the gold:silver ratio has reached at least 82:1, it has led to major rallies in the silver market. For example, in mid-2003 the gold:silver ratio peaked at 82:1 and over the next 5 years, silver went up 320%; at the end of 2008 the gold:silver ratio again peaked above 82:1 and, over the next 2 years, silver went up 453%. In early 2020 the gold:silver ratio again topped 82:1 and silver has already gone up by 124% since then so, based on history, silver could easily advance to somewhere between $40 and $60 per troy ounce.

24. Eric Fry: +$50

“When this ballgame ends…silver will be topping $35 and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me, lifting…the silver price to a new all-time high above $50.” Source

25. Bank of America: $35 in 2021; $50 in medium term

“$35 silver is feasible next year, but…could rally to $50 in the medium-term.” Source

26. Tom Fitzpatrick: $50

“A move back once more towards the $50 area is a very realistic target for Silver – and not necessarily something that will take years to materialize.” Source

27. Jim Willie: $50

“A quick march to the $35 mark, then to $50 in….a few months, not a couple of years.” Source

28. Don Durrett: $50

“Once we get over $30, we will run to $35 for one final pause. Then it will be off and running to $50 and an ATH. Get ready. It’s coming.” Source

29. Lawrence Williams: +$35

“While I still think $50 silver is perhaps just about out of sight, the metal can certainly move up to perhaps $35 or more given the current momentum.” Source

 

 

The post These 29 Analysts See Silver Going Up Dramatically This Decade appeared first on munKNEE.com.





Author: Lorimer Wilson

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Ground Breakers: Costs rise for ASX gold miners as inflation bites

Gold miners have endured an arduous 2021 in equity markets. While cash has been easy to come by and deals … Read More
The post Ground Breakers: Costs…

Gold miners have endured an arduous 2021 in equity markets.

While cash has been easy to come by and deals are being done, most gold producers have been hit by poor sentiment as prices have struggled to break out.

Over the past year the All Ordinaries Gold Index has sagged around 20%.

Although most are still making good money, rising costs and the impact of inflation and labour challenges are also hitting miners in the hip pocket.

Metals Focus says the global average all in sustaining cost for gold miners hit its highest level since 2013 in the September quarter, rising 3.6% quarter on quarter to US$1123/oz.

Costs are on the rise for gold producers
Pic: Metals Focus

Australian miners were the worst off when it came to cost pressures, with costs in Australia climbing by an average of 13.1%.

Global AISC margins fell by 9% QoQ to US$667/oz, with Australia’s sliding 18%, Canada’s dropping 5% and Russia’s falling 7%.

Margins remain high historically speaking, and 94% of gold operations tracked by Metals Focus remain profitable.

“As might be expected, increasing costs and a lower gold price have squeezed margins in the September quarter,” they said.

“However it is worth noting that their margins are still substantially higher than in previous years.”

“Despite the relatively healthy margins, the lower gold price and rising costs are putting pressure on higher cost operators,” Metals Focus said.

“While the proportion of output that is profitable remains high at 94%, it has fallen from 98% in Q2.21. A number of operations and projects are already under strategic review with regards to increasing costs.”

Costs are up for goldies for the fourth straight quarter
A few more gold miners are touching the margins. Pic: Metals Focus

“If cost inflation persists and margins diminish even further it is likely that development project approvals will be delayed and also possible that the highest cost production of more marginal producers could potentially be closed.”

Although global average head grades rose 0.5% (5% in Australia), inflationary pressures including crude oil prices, rising salaries amid Covid restrictions, labour shortages and turnover, and the cost of equipment due to supply chain issues drove up operating costs for the fourth straight quarter.

Markets reacted badly this morning to news of the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant around the world, with materials sliding 1.19% this morning.

Chalice soars on new Julimar discovery

Market darling is a phrase that doesn’t quite cut it with Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN), which is up 60 times over since making the Gonneville nickel-copper-PGE discovery 70km north of Perth early last year.

Shares jumped more than 4% this morning after Chalice announced another discovery at Julimar, where last month it declared Gonneville the world’s biggest nickel sulphide discovery in 20 years and Australia’s first major platinum group elements resource.

The new mineralised intrusion is an ultramafic unit to the west of Gonneville, separated by around 70m of metasediments.

Located immediately south of the 6.5km Hartog anomaly, Chalice struck 3m at 2g/t palladium, 0.3g/t platinum, 0.6% nickel, 0.5% copper and 0.05% cobalt for a 1.7% nickel equivalent from 68m in one hole.

The second mineralised intercept struck 2m at 1.8g/t Pd, 0.2g/t Pt, 0.6% Ni, 0.5% Cu and 0.06% Co for a 1.9%NiEq from 139.2m.

The discovery did not show up on EM, “highlighting the potential for further blind discoveries” according to Chalice.

While Chalice has already drilled around 180,000m at Julimar, part of its value proposition is the idea that more will be found with the Gonneville resource accounting for just 7% of the 26km strike of the Julimar complex.

It has submitted a conservation management plan to get at the Hartog target, which will be a bit more thorny because unlike previous drilling which has been located on private farmland, Hartog lies beneath the Julimar State Forest.

Chalice says its CMP for drilling the Hartog-Baudin targets is sitting with the WA Government and it expects approvals shortly.

Chalice Mining share price today:

 

The post Ground Breakers: Costs rise for ASX gold miners as inflation bites appeared first on Stockhead.




Author: Josh Chiat

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QMines tops the class with second resource update just a few months after listing

Special Report: In just the six short months since making its debut on the ASX, QMines has delivered its second … Read More
The post QMines tops the…

In just the six short months since making its debut on the ASX, QMines has delivered its second resource estimate for the Mt Chalmers copper-gold project, which is 38% higher than the previous estimate and largely in the higher confidence measured and indicated categories.

QMines (ASX:QML) has delivered an updated resource for its flagship Mt Chalmers project in Queensland of 5.8 million tonnes at 1.7% for 101,000 tonnes of contained copper equivalent, which includes for the first time measured and indicated resources.

Significantly, 78% of the updated resource falls into the higher confidence measured and indicated categories. This is important because it gives an explorer sufficient information on geology and grade continuity to support mine planning and allows the definition of a reserve.

The updated resource is not far off the 120,000 tonnes that respected Australian investment firm Shaw and Partners forecast for the latest resource upgrade in a research note in early October.

Shaw and Partners, however, anticipated the updated resource would still be 100% inferred. This attracted an increased 72c price target from the investment firm which is a nearly 90% premium to the 38c share price QMines is trading at currently.

QMines share price chart (ASX:QML)


 

So the fact that such a large chunk of the resource is in the measured and indicated categories is a big leap in terms of confidence in the resource and should be a positive signal to the market of QMines’ ability to over-deliver against the target.

“As the company only listed in May 2021, it is a fantastic achievement to be delivering a resource upgrade for our shareholders in such a short period of time,” executive chairman Andrew Sparke said.

“It is very pleasing to see that the upgraded resource has substantially grown in both size and confidence level, with the measured and indicated categories now comprising 78% of the overall resource.”

Offering further exploration upside, Sparke says QMines has identified several volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VHMS) prospects outside the known resource, which bodes well for further resource upgrades and the potential for future development.

A world class mine in the making

Mt Chalmers is already considered one of the world’s highest-grade gold-rich VHMS systems.

QMines has previously demonstrated the significant size potential and high-grade nature of the deposit, with recent peak grades of from a 15-hole, 2,182m diamond drilling program including 5.3% copper, 11.75 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, 243g/t silver, 33% zinc and 19% lead.

Those results, which were reported just last week, follow close on the heels of ‘bonanza’ grade copper, gold, silver, lead and zinc intercepts announced in October.

A major 30,000m drilling program continues unabated, with a third resource upgrade planned for the first half of 2022.

QMines

 

This article was developed in collaboration with QMines, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

 

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

The post QMines tops the class with second resource update just a few months after listing appeared first on Stockhead.






Author: Special Report

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