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Inflation Is Eating Your Lunch If You’re Doing This One Common Thing

Nearly all savings accounts at U.S. banks are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to $250,000, but beyond that, it makes less…

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This article was originally published by US Global Investors

Nearly all savings accounts at U.S. banks are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to $250,000, but beyond that, it makes less and less sense for savers and investors to use them. Households that continue to keep a significant portion of their wealth in the bank should be aware that inflation is eating their lunch at a rate I’ve personally never seen.

Take a look at the chart below, which comes from JPMorgan’s September quarter Guide to the Markets report. In particular, I want you to look at the bars, which represent average annual income earned on $100,000 in a savings account. The blue lines, meanwhile, represent the income that’s needed to beat inflation.

Savings Accounts AIn't What They Used To Be
click to enlarge

In the 1990s, households generally did well by using savings accounts. Inflation rarely ran above 2% year-over-year, and interest rates were above 5%.

Ever since the financial crisis, though, savings income hasn’t kept pace with inflation. The Federal Reserve slashed rates to near 0%, where they’ve more or less remained. Savers fell underwater.

But then 2021 happened. Due in large part to massive global supply chain disruptions, inflation has jumped to levels unseen in decades. (And this doesn’t even take into consideration so-called shadow inflation.)

As a result, the spread between the average income generated in a savings account and the income needed to beat inflation has never been wider. We’re talking about a difference of $3,907, based on a savings account holding $100,000. What could have been a mortgage payment, a weekend vacation or down payment on a new car instead went poof due to the invisible tax known as inflation.

Tax-Efficient Investing Should Also Take Inflation into Consideration

Most savvy investors are familiar with tax efficiency. They may structure their investments and use certain instruments, including tax-free municipal bonds, to pay the least amount of taxes allowable.

Inflation is a hidden tax that I don’t think enough people account for. They feel the pain at the pump and grocery store, but seldom do they see it with their wealth. If they did, the personal saving rate for the U.S. wouldn’t be as high as it is right now. Although it’s fallen from all-time highs, the share of disposable personal income (DPI) that’s still sitting in bank accounts remains elevated.

U.S. Personal Savings Rate Remains Elevated
click to enlarge

But as Warren Buffett famously said, “If you don’t find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.” (Leave aside for a moment the fact that Buffett, at age 91, is still working fulltime as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.)

Diversify with Alternative Investments, Including Gold and Bitcoin

Many investors diversify using a number of alternative assets, including art and real estate, but my favorite ways include gold and Bitcoin.

Right now, gold is extremely unloved. The metal is down some 6.5% for the 12-month period and down more than 14% from its all-time high set in August 2020. I believe this makes it the ultimate contrarian investment. What’s more, a number of gold mining stocks look very attractive right now, with many of them generating remarkably higher free cash flow yields than the industry as a whole and the S&P 500.

Most cash flush gold miners in universe of investable companies
click to enlarge

As you can see, there are quite a few companies that have very strong cash positions at a time when investor sentiment for gold miners is very low. Again, when sentiment has been this low, returns have historically been attractive six months later. The companies above, I think, would be a good place for investors to start hunting for opportunities in anticipation of the next bull run. We invest in several of the names here at U.S. Global Investors.

And then there’s Bitcoin. The crypto is up more than 430% for the 12-month period, having receded from its record high of nearly $67,000. Inflation has certainly been a demand driver, as has this week’s launch of the first U.S.-based Bitcoin-linked ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, ticker BITO, which now holds the record for reaching $1 billion in assets in the fewest days, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. (Appropriately enough, the former recordholder was State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which made its debut way back in 2004.)

Clearly BITO has found a market, but keep in mind that it does not invest in Bitcoin directly; instead, it holds Bitcoin futures contracts, which some investors may not prefer. A spot Bitcoin ETF is not available at the moment, but it probably won’t take long for one or more to be issued.

And don’t forget about listed crypto miners. I’m obviously biased, but HIVE Blockchain Technologies (Nasdaq: HIVE) is the only one that mines both Bitcoin and Ether on an institutional scale, and the first to use 100% green renewable energy sourced in Iceland, Sweden and Canada.

Today HIVE announced that it would be purchasing 6,500 next-generation Bitcoin miners, which will have an aggregate hash power of 585 Petahash per second (PH/s). These machines, when fully installed, are estimated to generate an additional 3.7 Bitcoin per day, or the equivalent to an additional $250,000, or $7.5 million in monthly run rate income. Learn more by reading the press release here.

 

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets. Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE. Effective 8/31/2018, Frank Holmes serves as the interim executive chairman of HIVE.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (09/30/2021): Torex Gold Resources Inc., Centerra Gold Inc., Gran Colombia Gold Corp., Dundee Precious Metals Inc., Pretium Resources Inc., Endeavour Mining PLC, Barrick Gold Corp., Eldorado Gold Corp., SSR Mining Inc., Silver Lake Resources Ltd., Karora Resources Inc.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.





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Precious Metals

BMO Reiterates Ratings On Osisko Gold Royalties After Preliminary Results

On January 10th, Osisko Gold Royalties (TSX: OR) reported its preliminary fourth-quarter deliveries and portfolio update. Osisko received 19,830 gold
The…

On January 10th, Osisko Gold Royalties (TSX: OR) reported its preliminary fourth-quarter deliveries and portfolio update. Osisko received 19,830 gold equivalent ounces for a total of 80,000 equivalent ounces in 2021. This is at the higher end of their 78,000 – 82,000 guidance. The company says that preliminary revenue for the fourth quarter is C$50.7 million and cost of sales came in at C$3.7 million.

Osisko Gold currently has 13 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of C$22.88 or a 51% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 13 analysts, 4 have strong buy ratings, 8 have buy ratings and 1 analyst has a hold rating on the stock. The street high sits at C$27, representing 78% upside, coming from Haywood Securities. While the lowest price target sits at C$19, representing a 26% upside to the current stock price.

In BMO Capital Markets’ note, they reiterate their C$20 12-month price target and market perform rating saying that the preliminary results were consistent with consensus expectations.

On the results, BMO says that all the results came in line with consensus expectations. The consensus estimates were 19,700 equivalent ounces, C$53.3 million in revenue, and C$4.2 million in cost of sales.

BMO says that in the news release, the company outlined a number of expected 2022 catalysts which include further expansion to Mantos Blancos, ‘imminent production’ at Santana, Ermitaño, and advancing Tocantinzinho under new ownership.

BMO says that they have not updated their estimates for the companies outlook and keep their estimates tied to their models of the mine operators under their coverage so there is a potential upside to their price target.

Below you can see BMO’s updated fourth quarter, full year 2021, and 2022 estimates.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post BMO Reiterates Ratings On Osisko Gold Royalties After Preliminary Results appeared first on the deep dive.


Author: Justin Young

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Precious Metals

Confessions of a Day Trader: Pump up the volume, this one’s in the bank

This week saw the day that APT traded with a 6 in the front. Amazing to think that once they … Read More
The post Confessions of a Day Trader: Pump up…

Each Monday, Stockhead’s resident day trader gives us a peek at the highs and lows of his trading diary and hints at what might be coming this week.

Platform used: Marketech
Round Trip: A round trip is $10 up to $25,000 and then above $25,000, commission is at 0.02% in and at 0.02% out.
Rules of engagement: Never hold any positions overnight (unless forced) and try to avoid any suspensions (if possible). No shorting.
 

Monday January 10

Mmmmm is all I can say about today. Mmmmmm!

Volumes very low. Hard to find anything, though CBA made a classic 11am move and everything else was just bland.

Both APT and FMG allowed me out with just a couple of minutes to go. The results of no profit and $12.00 profit sum up the day.

So, that’s $172 for the day and put in a bit of time and energy to produce that. Mmmmm. Off for a swim and a beer.

Image: Marketech

Recap:
Bought 500 CBA @ 102.66
Bought 600 APT @ 72.27
Sold 500 CBA @ 102.98 ($160.00 profit)
Bought 2,500 FMG @ 20.63
Sold 600 APT @ 72.29 ($12.00 profit)
Sold 2,500 FMG @ 20.63 ($0.00 profit)

Got a text off a mate and this was my reply in blue:

Bitcoin (which I don’t trade but watch) hit $39,500 that night (inflation hedge vs gold, had gold up Bitcoin down) and Friday APT traded down to $69.03.

 

Tuesday January 11

After yesterday’s effort, decide to be a bit more aggressive on size today. CBA broke down below $101.00 a few times today and gave me two opportunities.

Both times left sell limits at $100.98 because if they were going to push back above $101, they would need to take me out first, so for the sake of 2c it is a good strategy to have.

Just put sell limits below key breakout figures as sometimes they can reach that figure and fall back.

Then as I’m laying down with a nice sea breeze blowing through I noticed FMG getting sold down with not long to go. Made a 3c turn on 5000 and could have gone either way, so was a ‘heads or tails’ trade and heads came in!

Up $645 and spent a bit on brokerage but this allowed for smaller turns required to get a profit.

Image: Marketech
Image: Marketech

Recap:
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 100.98
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 101.15 ($255.00 profit)
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 100.82
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 100.98 ($240.00 profit)
Bought 5,000 FMG @ 21.04
Sold 5,000 FMG @ 21.07 ($150.00 profit)
 

Wednesday January 12

Back to finding my ‘zone’ a bit today.

Working out that volumes are not as big as they could be but there’s still some volatility going on.

For example, CBA’s day range was $102.48 to $100.82 and FMG’s was not as dramatic at $21.20 to $20.68, but both have support(ish) levels. CBA $101.00 and FMG $21.00.

Doesn’t really mean anything in the real world but in the stock market world, they get sold down and bought back up.

FMG trade went on longer than I thought and CBA again gave me two opportunities. Go to bed thinking ‘should I up the size even more or will that bring me undone?’

Sipping a nice single malt as I type and contemplate my movements for tomorrow and asking my trading ‘God’ for guidance. Up $775 for the day.

Image: Marketech
Image: Marketech

Recap:
Bought 5,000 FMG @ 20.90
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 101.57
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 101.73 ($240.00 profit)
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 100.99
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 101.18 ($285.00 profit)
Sold 5,000 FMG @ 20.95 ($250.00 profit)
 

Thursday January 13

Pre-market, the news that USA inflation was at a 40-year high got me thinking about gold.

Then out of the blue, CHN opened down and I lined up 4000 to buy and then chickened out and made my order 2000. I thought there maybe something fundamentally wrong as a reason for marking it down.

As it turned out my timing was good but my size was not. Then later on, CBA gave me another opportunity when it fell below $102.00.

Good result for not too much effort today. Plus $585.

Image: Marketech
Image: Marketech

Recap:
Bought 2,000 CHN @ 8.34
Sold 2,000 CHN @ 8.55 ($420.00 profit)
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 101.98
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 102.09 ($165.00 profit)

 

Friday January 14

Well today was the day that APT traded with a 6 in the front. Can you believe it? Amazing to think that once they were par with CBA.

Just shows that a quality dividend payer will always win in the end. Not touching APT now until they become Block on the 20th.

Got a fix on CBA and also MFG. The range on CBA was $102.65 to $100.50. WTF is all I can say and today was all about patience.

Low volume and inflation scares and a Friday and an Australian holiday mode all adding to the volatility.

Up $2635 gross and $2089 net after brokerage (CBA the main culprit). Bring on Monday!

Image: Marketech
Image: Marketech

Recap:
Bought 1,500 CBA @ 100.59
Bought 2,000 MFG @ 19.58
Sold 1,500 CBA @ 100.81 ($330.00 profit)
Sold 2,000 MFG @ 19.65 ($140.00 profit)

The post Confessions of a Day Trader: Pump up the volume, this one’s in the bank appeared first on Stockhead.


Author: Bottom Picker

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Precious Metals

Lundin Gold Sees BMO Reiterate $14 Price Target After Production Beat

On January 10th, Lundin Gold Inc. (TSX: LUG) announced its 2021 full-year production results. The company announced that it produced
The post Lundin Gold…

On January 10th, Lundin Gold Inc. (TSX: LUG) announced its 2021 full-year production results. The company announced that it produced 428,514 ounces of gold, beating their own high range of guidance, which was 420,000 ounces. The breakdown was 289,499 ounces of concentrate and 139,015 ounces of Doré. The company processed 1,415,634 tonnes this year with an average throughput of 4,121 tonnes per day and a recovery rate of 88.6%.

Lundin Gold currently has 9 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of C$13.69, or a 36% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 9 analysts, 8 have buy ratings and 1 analyst has a hold rating. The street high sits at C$15.50, or a 54% upside from Stifel-GMP. While the lowest 12-month price target is C$11.75.

In BMO Capital Markets’ note, they reiterated their C$14.00 12-month price target and Outperform rating on Lundin Gold, saying that the company had strong fourth-quarter production.

For the fourth quarter Lundin Gold produced 107,900 ounces, beating BMO’s 104,600 ounces, and they note that the companies throughput and recovery rates have been steadily increasing each quarter in 2021.

Though the full year beat was unexpected by many, BMO believes that this was expected due to the strong production at Fruta del Norte with their throughput increasing 4,200 tonnes per day. Additionally, they expect Lundin Gold to come in at their own guidance for all-in sustaining costs.

Lastly, BMO believes that Fruta del Norte has started to accumulate high-grade stockpiles, which has only started in the last quarter or two. They believe that the building “of modest stockpiles as a positive for the mining operation.”

Below you can see BMO’s updated fourth quarter, 2021, and 2022 estimates.


Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

The post Lundin Gold Sees BMO Reiterate $14 Price Target After Production Beat appeared first on the deep dive.



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