JPMorgan Turns Positive On Crypto, Sees “A Bullish Outlook For Bitcoin Into Year-End”
The launch of the first Bitcoin ETF, BITO, even if based on futures, was the culmination of seven years of anticipation for bitcoin bulls and it certainly did not disappoint: the leaks and the actual news propelled the cryptocurrency to a new all time high above $66,000 (with some profit-taking to follow).
Yet despite the clear impact on the price of bitcoin, which has more than doubled from its July lows, not everyone is uniformly bullish on the impact of the first bitcoin ETF. As JPM’s Nick Panigirtzoglou writes in his latest widely-read Flows and Liquidity note, “the bulls are seeing this ETF as a new investment vehicle that would open the avenue for fresh capital to enter bitcoin markets” while the bears “are seeing the new ETF as only incremental addition to an already crowded space of bitcoin investment vehicles including GBTC in the US, ETFs listed in Canada since last February which have been already accessible to US investors, regulated (CME) and unregulated (offshore) futures, and plenty of direct investment options using digital wallets via Coinbase, Square, Paypal, Robinhood etc.”
For its part, JPM – not surprisingly – falls into the skeptics’ camp (we say not surprisingly because for much of 2021, the largest US bank has been publishing bearish note after note, as we have repeatedly detailed, urging clients to ignore the largest cryptocurrency and if anything, to take profits. In retrospect, this has been a catastrophic recommendation for anyone who followed it).
According to the JPMorgan quant, the launch of BITO by itself will not bring significantly more fresh capital into bitcoin due to “the multitude of investment choices bitcoin investors already have. If the launch of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) last February is a guide, as seen in Figure 1, the initial hype with BITO could fade after a week.”
Here, once again, JPM’s superficial “analytical” approach shines through and we are confident that Panigirtzoglou, who has been dead wrong about bitcoin for the past year, will once again be wrong in his take on BITO. Instead, for a much more nuanced – and accurate – view of the daily happenings in bitcoin ETF land we recommend Bloomberg’s inhouse ETF expert, Eric Balchunas who points to what is clearly an unprecedented, and rising demand for crypto ETF exposure (one can only imagine what will happen when Gensler greenlights an ETF based on the actual product not spread-draining and self-cannibalizing futures). Indeed, as Balchunas pointed out on Thursday, BITO – which is “maybe too popular for its own good”, has already “used up 2/3 of its total bitcoin futures position limits, only about 1,700 contracts ($600m) left bf it hits 5k total. Could hit in next day or two.”
$BITO has already used up 2/3 of its total bitcoin futures position limits, only about 1,700 contracts ($600m) left bf it hits 5k total. Could hit in next day or two. Great story on this from @kgreifeld https://t.co/xcVkw7Nbyl
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 21, 2021
But what about the ramp in bitcoin prices in recent weeks? Surely the anticipation of the ETF launch was the main catalyst? Well, according to JPM the answer is again no, and instead the JPM strategist writes that “while we accept that bitcoin momentum has shifted steeply upwards since the end of September, we are not convinced the anticipation of BITO’s launch was the main reason.”
Instead, as the Greek quant explained before (see “JPMorgan: Institutions Are Rotating Out Of Gold Into Bitcoin As A Better Inflation Hedge“) he believes that rising inflation concerns among investors “has renewed interest in inflation hedges in general, including the use of bitcoin as such a hedge.”
As he further explains, “Bitcoin’s allure as an inflation hedge has been strengthened by the failure of gold to respond in recent weeks to heightened concerns over inflation, behaving more as a real rate proxy rather than inflation hedge.” This is actually correct, and as we have shown previously gold indeed correlates much more closely to real rates that nominals, although in recent months, even real rates suggest that gold prices should be notably higher, perhaps confirming ongoing precious metal price suppression of the kind we have previously documented to be emanating from the BIS.
In any case, JPM also updates a chart we showed previously, the shift away from gold ETFs into bitcoin funds, which was very intense uring most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021, has gathered pace in recent weeks.
In turn, by putting upward pressure on bitcoin prices, JPM argues that this shift away from gold ETFs into bitcoin funds likely triggered mean reversion across bitcoin futures investors which had reached very oversold conditions by the end of September. This is shown in Figure 3 via the bank’s position proxy based on CME ethereum futures. Looking at Figure 3, JPMorgan now claims that “there had been a steep decline in our bitcoin futures position proxy” which pointed to oversold conditions towards the end of September triggering a bitcoin rebound. This rebound appears to have accelerated over the past days ahead of BITO’s launch with the blue line in Figure 1 fully recapturing all the previous months’ unwinding. In other words, the price ramp into the bitcoin ETF launch was just a coincidence. Yeah right, whatever.
Where JPM is however right, is in its assumption that a significant component of bitcoin futures positioning encompasses momentum traders such as CTAs and quantitative crypto funds. Previously, the bank had argued that the failure of bitcoin to break above the $60k threshold would see momentum signals turn mechanically more bearish and induce further position unwinds; it also claims this has likely been a significant factor in the correction last May in pushing CTAs and other momentum-based investors towards cutting positions. At the end of July, these momentum signals approached oversold territory at the end of July and have been rising since then in reversal to last May-July dynamics. The shor-tterm momentum signal has exceeded 1.5x stdevs, a z-score that we would typically characterize as overbought for other asset classes but still below the exuberant momentum levels of January 2021.
So with both With Figure 3 and Figure 4 pointing to exhaustion of short covering and more crowded bitcoin positioning in futures, Panigirtzoglou sees bitcoin relying more on other flows outside futures to sustain its upswing. To him, this elevates the importance of monitoring Figure 2, i.e. the importance for the current shift away from gold ETFs into bitcoin funds to continue for the current bitcoin upswing to be sustained.
In our opinion, the main problem for bitcoin over the previous two quarters had been the absence of significantly more fresh capital as shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6. Figure 5 shows our estimate of retail and institutional flows into bitcoin with an overall downshift in Q2 and Q3 of this year. Similarly, Figure 6 shows that the previous steepening in the pace of unique bitcoin wallet creation has largely normalized returning to pre-Q4 2020 norms, again implying an absence of significantly more fresh capital entering bitcoin.
And yet, despite this latest (erroneous) attempt to downplay the impact of the bitcoin ETF, which JPMorgan says “is unlikely to trigger a new phase of significantly more fresh capital entering bitcoin”, by now too many JPM clients are invested in the crypto asset as Jamie Dimon (whose opinions on bitcoin have been an absolute disaster for anyone who traded on them) recently admitted, and so while tactically staying bearish on the impact of BITO, not even JPM’s house crypto “expert” can objective stay bearish in general, and as he concludes, “istead, we believe the perception of bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold is the main reason for the current upswing, triggering a shift away from gold ETFs into bitcoin funds since September.”
So with Bitcoin now perceived as the best inflation hedge among non-traditional assets, Pnaigirtzoglou concludes that this gold to bitcoin flow shift “remains intact supporting a bullish outlook for bitcoin into year-end.”
New Found Gold Neighbor Canstar Resources Might Be Sitting on Canada’s Next Big Gold Discovery
Canstar Resources (TSXV: ROX) might have discovered the biggest gold deposit in Canada’s hottest mining province, Newfoundland…
( ) might have discovered the biggest gold deposit in Canada’s hottest mining province, Newfoundland. The small-cap junior gold miner is currently drilling in a region that turns out to sit alongside the same tectonic boundary as another recently discovered billion-dollar gold project.
While manydiscoveries have emerged in recent years, few have remained surprisingly unnoticed by the broader mining community. One of which is the flagship gold project of , Golden Baie. In some samples, early testing has seen gold concentrations as staggeringly high as 4,485 g/t.
Despite this,is still operating under the radar at the moment. However, given the other billion-dollar gold projects located nearby in the province, it’s only a matter of time before it starts gaining a lot more attention from the mining community.
Is Newfoundland the New ‘El Dorado’ for Canadian Gold Miners?
In recent years, Newfoundland has emerged as one of the most exciting areas for gold discoveries. Millions of years of tectonic activity created geological conditions ripe for high-grade gold mineralization.
However, the area has remained largely unexplored. Whether due to a lack of technology or technical knowledge, past prospectors dismissed what would later turn out to be multiple, massive gold deposits all along the province.
There are a few notable examples, but one of the most recent was the Queensway project, a 1,510km area owned by. This was a company that went it went public back in September 2020 at just $1.4 per share.
Thanks to the excitement surrounding the Queensway project, shares quickly surged to over $10 earlier this year, with the company boasting a $1.2 billion valuation.
However, by the time most investors heard aboutand its gold project, shares had already shot up substantially. For those who felt like they missed the train on Newfound Gold, the good news is that history might be repeating itself, but this time with .
New Found’s Queensway project and Canstar’s Golden Baie are frequently compared side by side. Not only are both just a couple of hours drive away from each other, but both happen to be located on the same tectonic boundary. In layman’s terms, multiple deposits are likelier to be found on a tectonic boundary due to how plates shift over thousands and millions of years.
So far, Golden Baie is currently at an earlier stage of exploration than Queensway, which does mean it’s still a bit more of a speculative risk. However, analysis on the Golden Baie project shows that, based on surface-level gold concentrations, there’s likely a deep-seated gold system with multiple big deposits ripe for the picking.
What’s more, these early results have shown similar grades of gold as the Queensway project, which single-handedly transformedfrom a penny stock into a billion-dollar gold miner.
How Big is Canstar Resource’s Golden Baie Discovery?
At 622 square km, Golden Baie isn’t the largest project by surface area. However, over 95% of the total site remains completely unexplored.
Initial exploration attempts took place in the earlier 1980s and continued for almost 27 years, with geologists finding little at the time besides small gold deposits. It’s a common story with most Newfoundland gold discoveries, as many were initially passed over before their true potential was rediscovered.
It was only until 2019 that prospectors realized Golden Baie was likely sitting on top of a tremendous gold deposit. Some recent samples have shown incredibly high gold grades, including some rock pulp samples having as much as 4,485 g/t of gold. But even more down-to-earth results are impressive, such as over 289.3 g/t of gold at the Skidder site.
As for how large the Golden Baie gold deposit could be, that’s still to be determined. However, when you look at other nearby gold discoveries, even the most conservative estimates could make Canstar a fortungi
The smallest of nearby discoveries is owned by Anaconda Mining, whose Point Rousse project, located on the northern end of Newfoundland, contains over 119,000 ounces of gold. Marathon Gold has a closer deposit called the Valentine Lake project. These reserves are estimated at being over 3.1 million ounces of gold, the high end of what’s been found in Newfoundland.
Two other big projects include Matador Mining’s Cape Ray project, with 526,000 ounces of gold, and‘s Hope brook project, with around 844,000 ounces.
Given that all of these discoveries are within a couple of hundred kilometers of the Golden Baie project, we think the odds are that we’ll see similar results when further drilling data comes in. A rough estimate of between 500,000 and a million ounces of gold seems realistic, although it’s possible Golden Baie is even larger than that.
To put that into perspective, one million ounces of gold, at current spot prices, is just under $1.8 billion in mineable reserves. In contrast,is worth just $25.3 million at the moment.
Just like how the Queensway project catapulted Newfound Gold into a billion-dollar stock, so could Golden Baie transforminto a billion-dollar mining company, or around 40 times higher than its current market capitalization.
Some of the world’s top mining analysts agree. Billionaire mining investor Eric Sprott, one of Newfound Gold’s biggest backers, also owns a 32% stake in. While not every junior mining pick from Sprott turns into a billion-dollar success story, the odds are looking pretty good that Canstar might just be one of them.
What Should Investors Expect fromin 2022?
Given how undervalued and ignoredis at the moment, it’s a prime candidate for investors looking for a mining stock with exponential growth potential. The key, however, is to buy in before the market catches wind of it.
In other words, early investors looking for triple-digit gains should stock up on shares before further news about Golden Baie gets announced. The company is in the process of raising an extra $6 million to finance further drilling after releasing early drilling results in early November. Results were largely encouraging, suggesting that further, potentially larger gold deposits remain to be discovered.
Canstar has been focusing primarily on an 8km strike length, which is still just a small portion of the expected 95km gold corridor that’s at the heart of the Golden Baie property.
It’s also worth noting that, besides its flagship gold project,also has a couple of other operations. This includes the Buchans-Mary March project, another Newfoundland site, which has historically ranked as some of the world’s highest grade volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits. VMS deposits are one of the richest sources of copper, lead, and zinc, but the Buchans-Mary March project has found gold and silver as well as those other metals.
While Canstar’s other projects remain promising, its main catalyst for future price growth is still big gold project. Investors should expect more drilling results in 2022, news that could quickly transform Canstar into a nine-or-ten-figure valuation for lucky investors.
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Looking for Leverage? Silver Sands at a Sub $10 Million Valuation Offers the Highest Leverage Drilling Play Around
Nearing the end of a phase III drill program, this high-leverage silver/gold play couples enormous upside with an unusually low risk profile. Eric Sprott is the largest shareholder…
Nearing the end of a phase III drill program, this high-leverage silver/gold play couples enormous upside with an unusually low risk profile. Eric Sprott is the largest shareholder.
Veteran analysts predict gold and silver are on the cusp of another bull run, with some speculating that after a year of consolidation we may see prices rise to $50 per ounce for silver and $2,500 per ounce for gold near term. A further leg up is forecast, and some say precious metals will hit unheard of levels over the next few years as the US dollar staggers. This is big news considering that past silver bull markets have delivered gains ranging from 330% to 900%.
Which brings us to and why its Phase III drill program currently underway makes it the best high leverage silver junior around. ( ), SAND started out with a silver resource of 15 million ounces at its Virginia project in Argentina last year and this is their third round of drilling. Their goal is to have grown that to 50 million ounces by the time Phase III is finished, on their way to 100 million.
But that’s the low-risk part. The leverage comes from drilling the silver/gold Santa Rita vein field in the northern part of the property first explored by Mirasol and Hochschild in 2007. Surface sampling and channel sampling highlights included 340 g/t silver and 5 g/t gold. Mirasol put 7 green field exploratory drill holes into the structure and came up with mineralization in 6 of 7 holes before Hochschild dropped it to focus on their San Jose discovery (now mine).
Silver Sands largest shareholders areand Eric Sprott, who has invested twice – increasing his initial investment by 300%. Commenting on the silver market, Sprott said:
“There’s going to be a shortage of silver. We get information from dealers looking for supply and paying premiums, which is almost unheard of. And when I look at the amount of silver going into ETFs and India, we know a shortage is on its way. The last time silver had a breakout, the price went up 10-fold. Do I think that could happen again? Absolutely.”
Sprott is not the only one with Silver Sands on his radar. In his Gold Newsletter, well-known precious metals expert Brien Lundin firmly put the company into the buy column, reiterating his previous buy recommendation. Speaking to the high leverage nature of Silver Sand’s Virginia project, he described the company as “a great ongoing lever on …… silver.”
SAND is near the end of a Phase III exploration program at its Virginia project located in mining-friendly Santa Cruz, Argentina, in close proximity to four producing precious metal mines. Virginia started out with a silver resource of 15 million ounces, and the goal is to grow that to 50 million ounces by the time Phase III is complete.
The right people, place, and resource
Silver Sands hits the mining trifecta of people, place, and resource. The company is overseen by market veteran Keith Anderson who brings to the mix a successful 20-year history of structuring and financing resource companies. Leading a deeply experienced management team, Keith has brought in a top-class investor, executed operations under budget, and delivered a clear roadmap towards the development of a significant resource.
The company’s flagship Virginia project is located in mining-friendly Santa Cruz, Argentina, in close proximity to four producing precious metal mines. This year, Argentina was rated the 5th most attractive region in the world for investment, and a global top 10 of silver mining jurisdictions. Furthermore, Santa Cruz ranks above Mexico on the investment attractiveness index.
Following up on highly successful Phase I and II exploration programs, Silver Sands is nearing the end of its Phase III program which comprises 2,685 metres of drilling across more than 16 holes. The program is targeting seven silver vein structures along with the high priority Santa Rita silver-gold prospect.
Overall, the Virginia property has the markings of an exceptionally large epithermal vein system yet only a tiny fraction outcrops at or near surface. Silver Sands has just started to scratch the surface of the property’s potential. By the time Phase III is completed, the company believes it will have grown its resource from 15 to 50 million ounces, on the way to 100 million plus.
Phase III will comprise 2,685 metres of drilling across 16 holes and is targeting seven silver vein structures along with the high priority Santa Rita silver-gold prospect. This will all be driven by a low-risk model that involves mostly drilling gaps and extensions between high-grade intercepts along known vein structures.
Adding ounces on the low-risk journey to massive upside potential
The 59,750-hectare Virginia project is a low to intermediate sulphidation epithermal silver deposit nestled in the mineral-rich Deseado massif, roughly 100 kilometres south of Newmont’s Cerro Negro Mine, one of the largest gold mines in the world.
Through initial discovery in 2009 and four follow up drill programs between 2010 – 2012, defined an indicated resource of 11.9 million ounces of silver at 310 g/t and an inferred resource of 3.1 million ounces of silver at 207 g/t, which were documented in an NI 43-101 technical report filed in 2014. Mineral resources are contained within seven conceptual open pits including Naty, Julia North, Julia Central, Julia South, Ely North, Ely South, and Martina.
Phase I and II drilling subsequently identified four new conceptual open pits – Ely Central, Ely North Extension, Julia South Extension, and Martina NW. Drilling confirmed the Ely structure can be traced over 2.3 kilometres in strike length from north to south, open along strike and at depth. The Naty-Julia structure now extends to over 3 kilometres in strike length, open to the north and south, and at depth.
Phase I focused on exploring new high-grade silver zones to expand on the existing NI 43-101 and consisted of 2,831 metres across 18 drill holes along with 80.5-line kilometres of IP surveying. Phase II followed up and yielded some impressive results, testing several new prospective zones through 3,104 metres of drilling across 20 holes. New discoveries were made in areas of lower IP chargeability, showing potential for strike extensions of known veins, as well as new discoveries within previously untested linear trends of lower intensity.
Phase II also led to the discovery of a new high-grade zone at Ely Central, where drilling intersected strong and continuous Ag grades in four drill holes over a 200-metre strike length that lies within a 580-metre untested gap from original drilling in 2012. Furthermore, drilling intercepted high-grade silver mineralization at the Ely North, Martina, and Julia South targets.
Highlights from Phase I and II exploration programs include:
• 639 g/t Ag over 9.60m
• 625 g/t Ag over 10.80m, including 1,110 g/t Ag over 5.70m
• 560 g/t Ag over 9.98m, including 1,578 g/t Ag over 2.87m
• 476 g/t Ag over 4.0m, including 929 g/t Ag over 1.85m
• 198.5 g/t silver over 33.5m
• 123.43 g/t silver over 8.5m, including 168.34 g/t silver over 3.9m