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Oil under pressure, gold eyes Fed

Oil could correct further as European restrictions loom Oil prices are treading water at the start of the week but have been under pressure in recent sessions…

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Oil could correct further as European restrictions loom

Oil prices are treading water at the start of the week but have been under pressure in recent sessions as major consumers have discussed a coordinated release of reserves and lockdowns have returned to Europe. While further lockdowns aren’t guaranteed, case numbers in some countries are worryingly high and governments may be tempted to follow in Austria’s footsteps.

This is what OPEC+ has warned of for months when forced to defend not raising production as prices have spiked. Now we’re seeing prices correct and that could continue in the coming weeks if countries announce a tightening of restrictions.

While reserve releases will continue to be discussed, they may have lost some urgency after the recent correction in prices, with Brent and WTI back below USD 80 and on a downward trajectory. Leaders of consuming countries may want the pressure to remain so will likely continue to talk up the prospect of coordinated action.

Gold faces a big test at USD 1,833

Gold is lower for a third straight session after enjoying a fantastic rally during the first half of the month.  The yellow metal soared on higher inflation pressures as central banks, including the Fed, pushed back against a near-term policy response. That suppressed real yields and drove investors towards the comfort of inflation hedge gold.

But with the US economy performing well and the consumer in a strong position, the Fed may be better positioned to tolerate higher rates and could adopt a more hawkish position next month. With yields on shorter-term Treasuries rising, gold has lost some of its appeal and now faces a big test around USD 1,833 where it repeatedly saw strong resistance over the summer.

A potential pre-Thanksgiving Fed Chair announcement and the release of the November minutes on Wednesday could be the catalyst for gold one way or another.





Author: Craig Erlam

Precious Metals

Gold Springs Discovers New Gold System – Shares Jump 20%

Gold Springs [GRC-TSX; GRCAF-OTCQB] reported assay results from hole J-21-015 with an average…

Gold Springs Resource Corp. [GRC-TSX; GRCAF-OTCQB] reported assay results from hole J-21-015 with an average of 1.0 g/t gold equivalent over more than 163 metres located 180 metres south of the discovery hole J-21-006 at the 100%-owned Gold Springs property located on the border of Nevada and Utah.

The results confirm the existence of a new gold-mineralizing system called intrusive-related gold system (IRGS) on a new target that the company has named Tremor. This new gold system is situated along the northern extension of the Jumbo trend of the large Gold Springs project of 8,000 hectares.

J-21-015 highlights include 1.0 g/t gold equivalent over 163.1 metres: 1.42 g/t gold equivalent over 33.5 metres within the vein, which includes 3.26 g/t gold equivalent over 10.7 metres within the vein; and 0.94 g/t gold equivalent over 123.5 metres within the intrusive and contact zone.

Randall Moore, executive vice-president of exploration, stated: “We have been anxiously awaiting these results, which now confirm what we believe to be a major new discovery. The existence of an IRGS at Gold Springs opens a potentially large area to develop a new gold resource. Hole J-21-015 extended both the high-grade vein system and the gold mineralization associated with the intrusive first seen in hole J-21-006. We would also like to highlight that both holes ended in gold mineralization. We are now awaiting assays from another 15 holes at Tremor that are currently in the laboratory for testing. Drilling has extended this northern vein for over 200 metres and the Tremor intrusive zone for 600 metres along strike as seen in the drill cuttings. The thickest intercept within the intrusive thus far has been 280 metres.”

The company is waiting to receive assays from 24 holes on two targets; 15 from Tremor and nine from White Point, in the coming weeks.

Gold Springs Resource is confident of the presence of an intrusive-related gold system within the Tremor target situated along the north extension of the Jumbo trend in Utah where a strong CSAMT (controlled source audio magnetotelluric) high resistivity anomaly extends for 1,200 metres.

The company completed 18 holes at Tremor designed to test the extent of the intrusive-hosted gold system. These holes demonstrate the intrusive extends for 600 metres and is open to the north, south and at depth. In addition, the vein system in hole J-21-006 has been traced for 200 metres. For details on hole J-21-006, which returned 6.87 g/t gold equivalent over 24.4 metres, included grades of 30.9 g/t gold equivalent over 4.6 metres.

The drill has moved to Charlie Ross where eight additional holes are planned to follow up that new discovery.

Author: Staff Writer

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Precious Metals

Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF): A Brand-New Prospect for Investors

Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) is currently valued at $17.10. When the trading was stopped…

For the readers interested in the stock health of Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF). It is currently valued at $17.10. When the trading was stopped its value was $17.21.Recently in News on April 13, 2021, Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust Updates Its “At-The-Market” Equity Program. Sprott Asset Management LP (“Sprott Asset Management”), a subsidiary of Sprott Inc., on behalf of the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (NYSE: CEF) (TSX: CEF) (TSX: CEF.U) (the “Trust”), a closed-ended mutual fund trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold and silver bullion, today announced that it has updated its at-the-market equity program to issue up to US$1 billion of units of the Trust (“Units”) in the United States and Canada. You can read further details here

Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust had a pretty Dodgy run when it comes to the market performance. The 1-year high price for the company’s stock is recorded $20.38 on 06/01/21, with the lowest value was $16.75 for the same time period, recorded on 09/29/21.

Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) full year performance was -5.37%

Price records that include history of low and high prices in the period of 52 weeks can tell a lot about the stock’s existing status and the future performance. Presently, Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust shares are logging -16.09% during the 52-week period from high price, and 2.09% higher than the lowest price point for the same timeframe. The stock’s price range for the 52-week period managed to maintain the performance between $16.75 and $20.38.

The company’s shares, operating in the sector of Financial managed to top a trading volume set approximately around 2939308 for the day, which was evidently higher, when compared to the average daily volumes of the shares.

When it comes to the year-to-date metrics, the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) recorded performance in the market was -11.63%, having the revenues showcasing -4.09% on a quarterly basis in comparison with the same period year before.

Specialists analysis on Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF)

According to the data provided on Barchart.com, the moving average of the company in the 100-day period was set at 17.91, with a change in the price was noted -1.84. In a similar fashion, Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust posted a movement of -9.71% for the period of last 100 days, recording 489,960 in trading volumes.

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Trends and Technical analysis: Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF)

Raw Stochastic average of Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust in the period of last 50 days is set at 16.43%. The result represents improvement in oppose to Raw Stochastic average for the period of the last 20 days, recording 6.72%. In the last 20 days, the company’s Stochastic %K was 2.89% and its Stochastic %D was recorded 4.11%.

Now, considering the stocks previous presentation, multiple moving trends are noted. Year-to-date Price performance of the company’s stock appears to be encouraging, given the fact the metric is recording -11.63%. Additionally, trading for the stock in the period of the last six months notably deteriorated by -14.50%, alongside a downfall of -5.37% for the period of the last 12 months. The shares -3.66% in the 7-day charts and went up by -4.26% in the period of the last 30 days. Common stock shares were lifted by -4.09% during last recorded quarter.

Author: Sarah Baker

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Precious Metals

It’s The Taper, Stupid!

It’s The Taper, Stupid!

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

It is astounding to me how much market commentary I have seen over the last 48…

It’s The Taper, Stupid!

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

It is astounding to me how much market commentary I have seen over the last 48 hours placing blame for the market “volatility” (read: 2% off all time highs) on the Omicron variant.

The extent of our recent “volatility”.

While there are definitely still some uncertainties about the new variant, early indications make it look as though it is not going to be meaningfully deadlier than other variants and that, one way or the other, we will be able to deal with Omicron and see our way through it – just as we did with the Delta variant. That is, unless the government implements more of what one trader calls a “criminal” response to Covid and issues more lockdowns and mandates.

While Omicron uncertainty has likely contributed slightly to market volatility, I don’t think it is the driving force behind it. Rather, I believe that current volatility is a result of Jerome Powell’s surprising, and so far unrelenting, hawkish stance that a taper and rate hikes look to be necessary.

In fact, several Fed governors have commented over the last 48 hours about potentially accelerating both rate hikes and tapering. This language, as I noted days ago, is an admission that the Fed has lost control of inflation.

In fact, it looks as though inflation has gotten so bad that the Fed is going to have to try and attempt to “stick the landing” of presenting hurried tapering and rate hike plans to the market. Of course, the Fed won’t really be able to stick the landing on either because politicians on the left and castrated on-air finance personalities will cry foul as soon as the market has a 10% pullback as a result of higher rates (just as they did on the Covid crash).

But for now, the company line is that we are going ahead with rate hikes and looking to accelerate the taper. This – not the Omicron variant – is what is moving markets.

I said just days ago that Powell doesn’t even need to say anything for the market to continue to stay volatile at this point because his standing position on the matter is very hawkish. Yet, instead of saying nothing, he went as far as to reaffirm his hawkish stance on Wednesday of this week. From my piece earlier this week:

If the Fed does look to accelerate the taper and toss around the idea of rate hikes in order to try and rope inflation in, as indicated, I think we can expect further downside in equity markets in December, as I predicted about a week ago. In fact, Powell doesn’t even have to re-acknowledge what he said yesterday, he simply has to say nothing until the Fed’s next official nod to the markets.

As I said during my interview yesterday with Jack Boroudjian, tapers cause markets to crash: it is that simple. Just take a look at what happened in December 2018. This time is not going to be different. If the Fed goes ahead and decides to taper, you can expect risk assets to get smacked.

Small caps and technology have gotten the “worst of it” during this volatility and I continue to believe that that will be the trend.

The Russell 2000 and NASDAQ are just so chock-full of overvalued, cash burning companies that the world would actually be better without – malinvestment that should’ve been corrected years ago – that I believe those indexes will move disproportionately lower.

I also continue to be profoundly negative on ARKK, an actively managed fund whose flagship component and largest weighting is up 90.6% in the last twelve months, yet has still somehow managed to plunge -11.9% over the same time period.

That takes some very special “active management”.

Source: Ycharts

In fact, just yesterday after hours, another Cathie Wood holding, Docusign, took a 25% haircut.

Wood contends that the growth from her companies will eventually make up for this volatility in the very long term, but I think her portfolio of egregiously overvalued names represents the first head on the chopping block if market volatility continues. And, as I noted days ago, if Tesla ever starts to sell off, ARKK holders should look out below.

As I’ve said before, I also think there will be somewhat of a rotation trade back into cash generating blue chip names, consumer staples and the few companies that still pay a dividend and have modest price to earnings ratios – one of which I profiled as my favorite just weeks ago.

Some of my other favorite names that I am looking to buy if they continue to sell off are well-known blue chip staples that have seen their stocks trade sideways or disproportionately lower over the last couple of months, despite growth-style P/E’s for some. I’d argue names like Disney (DIS) and Walmart (WMT) offer GARP (“growth at a reasonable price”) should they keep selling off. I also love Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)(my largest holding in my all-dividend portfolio which I add to almost daily) and Intel (INTC), which I believe will undergo a renaissance and eventually retake its throne as king of chips – if it isn’t bought out first at these levels.

Gold has continued to selloff on the expectation that a taper is actually coming.

Source: Ycharts

The selloff could easily continue for the short- to mid-term, at least until we get to the point that gold needs to be bought as a volatility hedge due to a taper, or the point where the Fed finally caves and stops its plans for tapering or raising rates. It will be interesting to see how inflation may drive the Fed’s decision making going forward.

Heading into the weekend and into the back end of this month, traders would do well to focus their energies more on Fed commentary than on developments with the Omicron variant, barring any massive change with what we know regarding the new strain. Obviously, if Omicron turns out to be a flesh eating variant of the virus that kills people instantly, that is going to have a profound effect on equity markets (Neel Kashkari heard shouting it the background: “Not if I can help it!”).

But for the time being, thank God that doesn’t seem to be the case. Heading into 2022, I still think the markets could be in for a collapse, as I wrote here, as it appears that this is the only man that can move markets in this day and age:

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DISCLAIMER: 

I own JNJ, WMT, DIS and INTC. I own ARKK, IWM, SPY puts. I own puts and calls in GLD and own a host of gold-related and precious metals related names. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Positions can always change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/03/2021 – 10:25






Author: Tyler Durden

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