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September Gold Forecast Update: “Only” 68 Analysts Now Forecast Gold Going To $3,000 Or More (+20K Views)

Many analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One analyst even claims that gold will spike…

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More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One even claims that gold will spike up to $87,500/ozt.! Below is a revised list of their names and stated rationale for each of their forecasts.

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your Key To Making Money!

$50,000+ Gold

1. Jim Sinclair: $50,000 in 2025 and to $87,500 by 2032

  • In a recent YouTube video Sinclair said that, with so many U.S. Dollars being printed to uphold the economy as a result of COVID-19, that Gold will rise to $50,000/ozt. (i.e. go “straight up” in Sinclair’s words) at the end of the 45-year gold cycle which is coming up in 2025 and rise up to $87,500/ozt. by the end of 2032. Source

$25,000 Gold

1. Erik Lytikainen: $25,000 by 2030

  • “We will not be surprised to see $25,000 per troy ounce of gold by the year 2030.  It will likely be a volatile ride higher, with large drawdowns along the way.” Source

2. Martin Armstrong: $25,000

  • “Gold should theoretically sell for $25,000 a troy ounce, given the monetary prolificacy since 1980”…in reference to the ever soaring $3.3 Trillion U.S. budget this year, alone. Source

$20,000 Gold

1. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029

  • “As a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source

2. Pierre Lassonde: $20,000 in 2 – 5 years

  • “Gold prices should skyrocket to much higher levels, even $20,000/ozt. in two to five years’ time, as gold reaches a price level close to the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.” Source

3. Egon Von Greyerz: $20,000

  • “I believe a gold price of $20,000/ozt. is very probable, even without high inflation.” Source

4. Leigh Goehring: $10,000-$15,000 by 2027-28

  • “Our target is between $10,000-$15,000 per troy ounce.,,[by] 2027-28.” Source

5.  Briton Hill: $5,000-$20,000 in next 5 to 10 years

  • “You can’t produce trillions of dollars with 0% interest rates and not introduce inflation. Long-term, we could be entering a cycle similar to the 1970s, where the precious metal sector rose by thousands of percentage points, and if we see something like that happen again in the next 5-10 years, we could easily see $5,000, $10,000, even $20,000 gold,” he said. “Gold could easily hit $20,000 per troy ounce in the next decade.” Source

$10,000 Gold

1. James Rickards: $10,000

  • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non-deflationary price of gold.” Source

2. Daniel Oliver: $10,000

  • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.” Source

3. Max Keiser: $10,000

  • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source

4. Adam O’Dell: $10,000

  • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000/ozt..” Source

5. AG Thorson: $7,000 – $10,000

  •  “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source

6. Peter Schiff: $5,000 to $10,000

  • Schiff projects a price of between $5,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce, and says the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is now valued at about 12 times the price of gold, will trade at just 7.5 times instead. Eventually, he sees gold and the Dow trading at even money. Source

7. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000

  • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source

8. David Smith: $10,000

  • “Gold could reach US$10,000 per troy ounce by the end of the bull market.” Source

9. Bob Kirtley: $10,000

  • “My target has been $10,000/ozt. since June 2006, so at that point, an exit strategy will be executed, hopefully with some handsome profits.” Source:

10. Scott Minerd: $5,000 to $10,000

  • “As chaotic price swings of the crypto world push investors back into gold and silver, the precious metals will start to build momentum, with the ultimate gold price target set at $5,000-$10,000 per troy ounce.” Source

$7,000 -$9,000 Gold

1. Florian Grummes$8,000 to $9,000 in 5 to 10 years

  • “We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 per troy ounce in five to 10 years.” Source

2. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030

  • “The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of $4,800/ozt. at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of $8,900/ozt. is conceivable by 2030.” Source

3. Graham Summers: $8,000

  • “Gold first rallied about 630% from 2003-2011. It then corrected about 43% before bottoming in 2015 at $1,060/ozt.. If it follows a similar second leg up this time around, it’s going to ~$8,000 per troy ounce before it peaks.” Source

4. Hubert Moolman: $7,758

  • “In my opinion, it is virtually guaranteed that gold will again catch up with the Dow’s performance since 1913, and significantly surpass it just like in the 70s. This means we will likely see gold reach $7,758/ozt. (in the near future) and eventually go on to reach multiples of that high.” Source

5. Gov Capital: $5,837 by 2023; $7,220 by 2024; $8,531 by 2025

  • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74/ozt.” Source

6. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025

  • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source

7. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $8,000 in 5 years

  • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source

8. Charlie Morris: $7,166

  • “A bullish target of $7,166/ozt. is both logical and plausible.” Source

9. Tom Fitzpatrick: $4,000 to $8,000

  • “We see no reason why this bull market cannot be as strong as the prior two averaging a multiple of eight times over an average of 7 years. Translating that to the $1,046/ozt. low in 2015 would come up with a number north of $8,000/ozt. possibly in as little as the next 2-3 years. Even if that sounds aggressive, a move similar to what we saw in 2009-2011 would suggest close to $4,000/ozt..”

10. Mike McGlone: $7,000 by 2025

“From 2001-2011, gold advanced about 7.5 times, which if repeated would bring it to around $7,000/ozt. in 2025.” Source

$4,000 – $5,000 Gold

1. Rob McEwen: $5,000

  • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source

2. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 in 3-5 years

  • “Gold at $5,000/ozt. in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source

3. Dan Popescu: $5,000 in 5 years

  •  “Gold price could break above $5,000/ozt. in the next 5 years.” Source

4. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade

  •  “Gold could hit $5,000 a troy ounce this decade, especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source

5. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030

  • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source

6. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030

  • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the U.S. dollar fail and/or the U.S. dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source

7. Chris Wood: $5,386

  • “The gold price of US$850/ozt. at the peak of the last secular bull market in gold in January 1980 was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita. The gold price is now just 3.6% of US disposable income per capita. Therefore, to reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$5,386/ozt.. Source

8. Ole Hansen: $4,000

  • “$4,000/ozt. probably is a little bit far-fetched as the world looks right now, but if you look years into the future, then that is possible because the repercussions of what we’re going through right now with the pandemic and the aftermath is going to be something that’s going to be felt for at least this generation and potentially beyond.”  Source

9. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “I actually think $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce is very reasonable.” Source

10. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030

  • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce within a decade.” Source

11. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000

  • “A $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce target.is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” Source

12. Gary Christenson: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2022

  • “A reasonable “status quo” valuation for gold in 2021 is around $3,000/ozt..  Prices will fall below and occasionally spike much higher than the valuation so a gold price of $5,000/ozt. in 2020 – 2022 is plausible.” Source

13. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 within 10 years

  • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 per troy ounce in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source

14. Frank Holmes$4,000 in 3 years

  • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000/ozt.”. Source

15. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 in the next 3 to 5 years

  • Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years. Source

16. Massimiliano Bondurri: $3,000 to $5,000 in 3 to 5 years

  • Massimiliano Bondurri, a capital founder and a CEО of SGMC, believes an ounce of gold will rise in price to $3,000 -$5,000 per troy ounce in the next 3-5 years. Source

17. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000

  • ‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 a troy ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000/ozt..” Source

18. Michael Cuggino: $4,000

  • Cuggino, CEO of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, a $1.9 billion mutual fund that is conservatively run and rated four stars by Morningstar, says it would “not be an unreasonable move” for gold to breach $4,000/ozt.. Source

19. Kirk Spano: $3,000 by mid-decade; $5,000 possible

  • “$3,000/ozt. mid-decade [with] upside potential to $5,000 per troy ounce.” Source

$3,000 – $3,500 Gold

1. Chris Vermuellen$3,500

  •  “Expect to see an ultimate peak price in gold well above $3,500/ozt..” Source

2. Victor Dergunov: $3,500 by end of 2022

  • “When we consider that the monetary base is likely to surge to around $8 trillion by year-end, we can conclude that this will give us around a 10,000% increase from the roughly $80 billion in monetary base the U.S. had in the early 1970s. Likewise, we can apply a similar percentage to the $35/ozt. gold price around the same period. A 10,000% increase from the $35 gold price would put gold prices at around $3,500 per troy ounce, roughly 100% higher than where the price of gold is today, [and] I think it is quite likely that we will see gold prices appreciate to $3,500/ozt. by the end of 2022.” Source

3. Charles Gibson$3,281

  • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total U.S. monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source

4. Bank of America: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • BoA raised its 18-month price target for gold to $3,000 a troy ounce citing the prospects of endless monetary expansion from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to limit the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic. Source

5. WingCapital Investments: $3,000

  • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000/ozt. would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source

6. Barry Dawes: $3,000 within 2 to 3 years

  • “I expect to see $3,000/ozt. in gold over the next 30 months.” Source

7. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024

  •  “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000/ozt., at some point over the next four years or so.” Source

8. Byron King: $3,000

  • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000/ozt.. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source 

9/10. Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000

  • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source

11. Alex Mashinsky: $3,000 by end of 2021

  • Mashinsky sees gold climbing to $3,000/ozt. by the end of next year but admits that even more gains are possible depending on how bad the currency debasement gets. Source

12. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,000 within 1 year

  • “I predict $3,000/ozt. gold in 1 year.” Source

13. Stewart Thomson: $3,000

  •  “Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000/ozt. price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000/ozt. target!” Source

14. Mark O’Byrne: $3,000 in next 12 months

  • “Gold is quite likely to climb to $3,000/ozt. in the next 12 months.” Source

15. John Ing: Higher than $3,000

  • “We expect gold to trade higher than $3,000 a troy ounce due to a lower greenback and solvency concerns.” Source

16. Joe Foster: $3,200 to $3,400

  • “We…believe this to be a deflationary cycle and both recent deflationary gold bull markets suggest that a price over $3,000 per troy ounce is reasonable. In fact, if one believes, as we do, that the current central bank stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 virus, along with elevated levels of systemic risks, are similar to those during the global financial crisis, then $3,400/ozt. may be the target for this bull market.” Source

17. SomaBull: $3,000

  • “The money supply is quickly heading to levels that would support a $3,000/ozt. gold price well in excess of fair value by the time this bull market is exhausted.” Source

18/19. Yvo Timmermans and Paul Van den Noord: $1,900 to $3,000 over next 18 months

  • “We anticipate gold will fall within a bandwidth of $1,900 and $3,000 per troy ounce over the next 18 months.” Source

20. Jordan Roy-Byrne: +$3,000

“Gold is currently building the handle portion of a cup and handle pattern, which we anticipate could break to the upside sometime in 2022 or early 2023. The measured upside target is $3,000/ozt., but these charts argue the run could go farther.” Source

21. Adam Trexler: $3,000

“With inflation coming, we’ll see gold over $2,500/ozt. in real dollar terms but we’ll see a devaluing of the dollar…[and] if you see 10% inflation, the dollar number value of gold could be much higher. I don’t think $3,000/ozt. gold is impossible and, if we see a hyperinflation scenario, it could be significantly higher.” Source

What do you think of the above price forecasts? Have your say in the “Comments” section below. Also, if I have missed other analyst forecasts (they must be within the last year) please mentioned them below and I will include them in a future article.

About Lorimer Wilson

Lorimer Wilson with Gold BarLorimer Wilson is an economic & financial commentator who has written numerous articles on economics, finance, precious metals, and the cannabis stock sector. He is the Managing Editor of munKNEE.com, a site that provides a selection of the internet’s best finance articles in an edited, reformatted and abridged format to ensure a fast and easy read.


 munKNEE.com has joined eResearch.com to provide you with individual company research articles and specific stock recommendations in addition to munKNEE’s more general informative articles on the economy, the markets, and gold, silver and cannabis investing.
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Author: Lorimer Wilson

Precious Metals

Leapfrogging Legacy Banking To A Bitcoin Standard

Leapfrogging Legacy Banking To A Bitcoin Standard

Authored by Mitch Klee via BitcoinMagazine.com,

How looking at the history of technological…

Leapfrogging Legacy Banking To A Bitcoin Standard

Authored by Mitch Klee via BitcoinMagazine.com,

How looking at the history of technological adoption can give us insights into where Bitcoin could be embraced the fastest…

INTRO

Throughout time, technology has proven to change our lives by leveraging efficiencies in energy. New ways in how we hunt have saved time and energy for innovation and to live more intentionally. Currently, Bitcoin presents an immense opportunity to change the lives of those who are burdened by old forms of manipulated money and preserve their time and energy. It is the first self-sovereign, programmable money that is proving to destroy expectations of every “expert” imaginable. At the intersection of money and technology, Bitcoin’s network effect is spreading like a mind virus to all corners of the globe. This is not a coincidence but the manifestation of a zero to one moment; a radical new technology that will change nearly everything it touches.

This article explores the idea that some regions and nations have a higher susceptibility to adoption in new monetary networks. Specifically, I will outline how the unbanked populations of emerging countries can leapfrog legacy systems, straight into a new monetary standard. But first, let’s lay the groundwork for understanding how this can happen with some concepts.

DEMOCRATIZATION OF TECHNOLOGY

To understand leapfrogging, let’s first look into something that naturally happens when humans produce technology: the democratization of technology. As we make technology, the cost reduces, while the ease of production increases. Our tools get better, people’s skills improve, securing the material for production gets easier, logistics improve, and everything is less costly as humans continue increasing the output/yield over time. Simply put, cost goes down, while production goes up.

Figure 1.

A great example is the printing press. Before this innovation, each book had to be typed out or written one by one and distributed almost by osmosis. This means books were more expensive and were only in the hands of the few. After the printing press, people were able to automate a portion of the process by creating blueprints of the books. This cut down labor costs, and there was a huge explosion in printed material. This may have put people out of work; but it also introduced better dissemination of information to a wider group of people and new opportunities to produce more books for less cost and effort.

Another example is photography. Historically, taking photos on film took hours to produce in a dark room. The film had to be brought to a local expert and it would take several days to get back the finished product. Smartphones and photoshop technology made this essentially free. It was then possible to download an app or use the built-in app on smartphones, take pictures, and immediately process them. Democratization of technology has been happening across every single aspect of human society since the beginning of time. Humans create tools to make it easier and cheaper to survive. Each tool becomes better, we then expand and evolve with less energy improving the quality of life.

Fast-forward to the internet age. Emerging countries are just now tapping into the power of the internet. Although there are many factors underlying the reasons for expansion, one thing that is known is that technology builds on itself, making each successive technology easier to produce. Not only is there growth, but there is exponential growth. Certain times throughout history, technology has made such a large leap forward that it allows extremely poor countries to skip the legacy technology and quickly adopt the new one. This is called leapfrogging.

LEAPFROGGING EXPLAINED

Leapfrogging is when the cost to produce one technology is too great for a population, so when a new, drastically cheaper technology is created it’s quickly adopted and the old tech is skipped. This is the coexistence and benefit of separate populations within society. Let’s look at the mobile phone revolution as a way to explain leapfrogging. Some societies did not have the wealth or infrastructure to adopt landlines and phone communication when it was brand new, but when the mobile phone was introduced, this gave mostly everyone around the world the ability to opt-in.

Figure 2. Landlines in the U.S., 1900–2019.

Figure 2 shows the number of landlines in the U.S. population from the 1900s to 2019. Throughout the entirety of the 20th century, the landline was being adopted in the U.S. Consequently it only took a decade to dethrone this old technology. The decline started when the benefit of cell phones outweighed the cost compared to landlines. This is where democratization hit the tipping point and we saw a huge jump from one technology to the next. Now it’s extremely cheap to use technology that is 100 times or even 1,000 times more advanced than the previous. Mobile phones usurped landlines because they were more affordable, easier to use and more mobile. Figure 2 shows how quickly a society can adopt a technology that has significantly more benefits than the previous, even in an advanced society.

A similar thing is happening with television and the internet. Netflix came out and disrupted how people consume media on the television. As more platforms emerged, and people realized they could pay a fraction of the cost for a Netflix subscription rather than $100 for cable and a bunch of commercials, the switch was easy. Legacy systems were bogged down by all of the brick-and-mortar stores and overhead costs. They could not compete and pivot quickly enough, so they lost their seat at the table.

Figure 3. Number of telephone subscriptions in the U.S. versus worldwide.

When comparing fixed telephone subscriptions to other countries, the U.S. was way ahead of most. Many factors were contributing to this. Wealth played a huge part, but much of it was the production and first movers’ advantage. The U.S. was the first country to set up telephone lines from Boston to Somerville Massachusetts and expanded from there. Other countries did not have this opportunity, so they were laggards in the technology simply by default. It also made it easy to have a grid to run on top of, being a technologically advanced country with a power grid. Because it was so resource-heavy to set up this grid, this took over 30 years to build up the infrastructure.

Figure 4. Landline subscriptions compared to GDP per capita, 2019.

One of the main reasons why it was so hard to increase telephone subscriptions in other countries is because of the initial cost. You can’t just tap into a telephone line, there needs to be a large grid, infrastructure and companies/governments willing to build out this grid. Figure 4 shows that there is a rough line at a GDP per capita of $5,000 to get off zero and start communicating via landline. As the GDP per capita grows in a country, it is more likely they adopt fixed landlines. This is a huge barrier to entry as they try and compete to be a part of the 21st century. With telephones, it brings an easier flow of information across long distances quickly. These are important technologies that helped first-world countries advance quicker than their counterparts. This technology could mean the difference between surviving and thriving in the modern era.

Figure 5. Mobile phone subscriptions versus GDP per capita, 2019.

Things get much different when you start looking at mobile phones in Figure 5. To have a mobile phone is drastically cheaper than having a landline, all costs considered. Before, you needed the infrastructure and everything that came with installing a landline phone. But with mobile phones, even at a GDP per capita of less than $1,000, you get ~50% penetration of adoption within the population. All of the countries that were left out of communication with landlines, now have leapfrogged the old technology, right into a new standard of mobile phones.

People benefit, businesses benefit and countries benefit immensely from these technologies. With mobile communication, people have higher leverage over their energy output. Businesses and life in general are more efficient, in turn creating a higher GDP for the country. It is a feedback loop that is good for all of humanity. When one group of people creates new technology, everyone benefits at one point or another.

FROM LANDLINES TO MOBILE PHONES TO INTERNET-CONNECTED SMARTPHONES

Not only are poorer countries leapfrogging into mobile phone communication, but they are, in turn, jumping right into the internet age. On top of that, (Android) smartphone costs are dropping significantly every year, with the average cost down by 50% from 2008 to 2016. With the growing ability to connect with the rest of the world comes more opportunities to learn and grow with the rest of the world. An incredible amount of information is available on the internet, and the benefit of being on the network is immeasurable.

Figure 6. Mobile versus landline subscriptions, worldwide, 1960–2019.

When comparing the numbers of mobile phone users to the numbers of landlines, you get a huge disparity in the pace at which they were adopted. Fixed landlines were around for almost 50 years before they started to see some real competition. Thinking back to our Figure 5, this makes sense, because the cost to build infrastructure is drastically higher than that of mobile phones. The opportunity a landline brought to civilization was immense, but the cost-effective mobility of cell phones transcends previous communication technology by a longshot.

As of September 2021, the world’s population was ~7.89 billion people. Of that, there are 10.5 billion cell phones with network connections. That is 2.52 billion more activated phones than there are people. This becomes thought-provoking when adoption data starts to reveal where mobile phones are headed next.

As people adopt mobile phones, smartphones are becoming cheaper and more abundant. The cost of production for smartphones is less and less each year, and soon there will be little reason to have a cell phone without internet connection because the cost difference will be so minuscule. Smartphone abundance is allowing people around the world to tap into the internet and it is estimated that “by 2025, 72% of all internet users will solely use smartphones to access the web.”

Figure 7. Share of the population using the internet, 1990–2019.

Currently, the world is in a transitionary period of communication. Not all of the world has access to the internet, only 65%, with an increasingly rapid pace of adoption. Because it is so inexpensive to get a mobile phone, and the benefits are immense, the world is being onboarded at an incredible rate.

To answer the question “What is Leapfrogging?” we can look directly at mobile phones. But it’s not just one leapfrog, it’s more of a continuous onboarding to the digital revolution for the entire human population. Things are getting cheaper, and technology is moving exponentially forward, toward a more connected future. Soon, everyone will have access to the internet and will bring about new and exciting opportunities for the world to grow. With the high rate of adoption in communication technology, mobile phones swept across low-GDP countries allowing information to spread. Smartphones are a small hop away from mobile phones. With smartphones comes all sorts of opportunities not to mention the connection to the world’s internet. In developing countries, the internet is starting to hit its hockey stick moment. Adoption continues to grow and as smartphones get cheaper, more people in the world have access to the internet, connecting them to their local and global economies and new innovations will come about in unforeseen ways.

This begs the question, what monetary network will they use to transact in the digital age? It’s taken years to get the legacy banking system up to speed. We’ve bootstrapped and “Frankensteined” many different ways to connect the internet to a centuries-old banking infrastructure, but these newly onboarded countries have the opportunity to skip that altogether. With no legacy banking infrastructure rooted within the nation, this leaves the door wide open for a new legacy.

LEAPFROGGING ONTO A BITCOIN STANDARD

It seems the stage is set for a paradigm shift. A perfect storm is brewing in populations that lack bank accounts and access to store their wealth. Coupling this with connection to the internet, and 21st-century e-commerce and monetary system, it is impossible for countries not to adopt it. Because bitcoin is a global asset with no intermediaries, its infrastructure is inherently global. Any improvements to the network, the entire world will benefit automatically without having to update the old tech. Unlike landlines, there is no infrastructure to build, and the barrier to entry is almost zero. You just opt in with a bit of hardware and an internet connection.

As of 2017, according to the World Bank, there are 1.7 billion adults in the world without a basic transacting account. Most of these countries with higher rates of unbanked are poor, have high rates of inflation and lower currency stability, not to mention a disconnected state government ripe with problems. This is extremely common when looking at currencies in other low-GDP countries. So, what are some of the biggest factors in which people would want or need to adopt Bitcoin? If we can answer this question, then maybe we can quantify and pinpoint which countries have the biggest opportunity and most to gain from adopting a Bitcoin standard.

Figure 8. World’s most unbanked countries (Source).

Figure 8 shows the top-10 most unbanked countries as of February 2021. The Oxford dictionary defines “unbanked” as “not having access to the services of a bank or similar financial organization.” Much like building the infrastructure for landlines, it’s expensive to build banks and serve the local economy. Not to mention, many of the people living in these countries don’t have the amount of money that would warrant the cost of owning a bank account. Some even share bank accounts with members of their families to save on costs. There is a huge opportunity to solve the problem of banking in low-GDP countries, but many of the digital banking companies around the world are constrained by regulation and geographical jurisdiction. It may be hard to grasp the importance of a bank account having never lived without one, but without a bank, citizens cannot secure funds safely. Without secure funds, the future is uncertain. This is where Bitcoin can solve some of the problems in these less developed and emerging countries. There are three specific ways in which these problems could be solved.

1. Bank the Unbanked

Bitcoin gives everyone the ability to be their own bank with something as little as a cell phone. All that’s needed is to be connected to the network and accept funds. The smartphone does all of this. It allows people to download a bitcoin wallet, connect to the internet and start transacting. There are many ways in which one can use this wallet. Coincidentally, the countries above who have low banking numbers within their population, also have mobile phones and high internet penetration. This is an open door from a technological standpoint, allowing people to opt into Bitcoin and secure their funds digitally.

In addition to using the Bitcoin network to transact on your phone, you can also use it as a cold storage solution. Cold storage is similar to a savings account. This savings account or cold storage is disconnected from the internet, making it harder for people to steal your funds. With the old technology of banks, you would have to pay for this solution, but with Bitcoin, it’s free, just download the software and/or buy a hardware wallet. There are some cold storage solutions where you can pay for a hardware device, but creating a phone wallet and securing your keys, gives the people an entry point and on-ramp to storing their wealth in a digital bank.

2. Securely Store Value Over Time

The second opportunity is the store of value function. Many of the countries that have unbanked populations and poverty issues are a result of a currency problem. In my previous article, “Bitcoin As A Pressure Release Valve,” I wrote that certain countries have hyperinflated currencies with no option but to turn to the black market. Most of the time, these countries use the U.S. dollar to transact since it holds its value better relative to their currency. Strictly from a monetary standpoint, bitcoin is scarce. It is the most scarce form of money there is. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin in existence and when the value rises, the production does not increase. This is called elasticity or the lack of elasticity in bitcoin’s case. Unlike fiat money, no government, central bank or agency can print more. And unlike gold, silver or any other commodity, when the demand rises, the amount that is mined stays the same. The first completely inelastic asset in existence is a result of preprogrammed architecture, with consensus in the network that’s default is to not change the protocol.

People that live in countries where the money is known to be manipulated, understand Bitcoin almost immediately. When the idea of something that can’t be manipulated is presented, the concept of scarcity and 21 million is understood. With the reality of incorruptible money, the current regime in power can’t stuff their pockets without alienating the population through force. These people understand this idea because they have experienced it firsthand. When food prices rise faster than people can spend a weekly budget on groceries, it is immediately apparent the importance of a completely scarce, un-manipulatable asset.

In developed countries with low levels of unbanked, people have ways of storing their wealth. They have a 401k and IRA, and most people own property. This is a way of storing value over time. It may not be completely efficient, but it is sufficient enough to escape some level of inflation. The alternative would be to keep your dollars in a savings account, and the real yield of that is negative and not a smart way to store money. These countries put money in financial devices, because it is the smart thing to do and it preserves time and energy. Unbanked countries have no way of storing long-term value. It is degraded and evaporated through manipulation and high levels of money printing. Emerging countries cannot store time and value into financial instruments. There is no Apple stock or S&P 500 to put money into. They are stuck with low levels of wealth that are stolen away on an ever-moving treadmill. There is no way of truly saving value or energy spent over time.

For the first time, Bitcoin gives the world, particularly those in emerging countries, the ability to hold their value in a closed system that cannot be inflated. Much like the opportunity the mobile phone brought to change communication, bitcoin is the first “store of value” that is available for low-GDP countries to buy and hold. It allows them to securely transfer their wealth over time, without fear of inflation or confiscation. Add on top of that, if they need to transfer wealth out of the country and flee an oppressive regime, bitcoin is the first asset that gives the ability to do so. Large amounts of gold cannot be taken on a plane or property and homes cannot be transferred to another country. Bitcoin gives people the freedom to do what they want with their earned value, without fear of a centralized power removing it. Bitcoin preserves the fundamental human right of property.

3. Connection to the Digital Economy

The third problem Bitcoin solves is connecting and transacting digitally. Being a digitally native asset, bitcoin smooths the rails of commerce allowing low-GDP countries to join the 21st century of commerce. This is huge, and what cell phones did for communication, digital commerce will do the same. It immensely increases our ability to transact and exchange value. Bitcoin allows anyone, anywhere, to join a digital transacting network and exchange value natively over the internet, whether in person or without knowing them at all.

Digital economies move at the speed of light, while old-school economies move at the speed of osmosis. This brings more time and efficiency for people on both ends of the transaction. Businesses spend less time on transactions, widen their addressable market, and start putting more time and effort into other things that can improve their work. It is the difference between transacting daily in cash and using a preprogrammed point of sales system. It is simply better.

Not only does Bitcoin make things easier and frees up more time, but it is programmable money. Like the internet, Bitcoin can be built in layers. Each layer brings a new way to use it that widens the possibilities and use cases. What the internet did for communication, Bitcoin will do for money.

Combining all three of these factors, you get a massive magnetic pull toward adoption of the new technology. It is hard to slow the movement of technological adoption and impossible to stop. Like throwing a match on a tinder-filled hillside, years of opportunity build up in countries that lack technology where innovation and adoption prepare to explode at the right moment.

QUANTIFYING BITCOIN ADOPTION IN LOW-GDP COUNTRIES

Figure 9. LocalBitcoins and Paxful Vietnamese dong (VND) combined volume in Vietnam (Source).

Looking at every one of the top-10 countries from Figure 8, they all have meaningful adoption in Bitcoin and it is growing every week. Not only is Vietnam number two on the unbanked list, but it is also number one on the “Chainalysis 2021 Global Adoption Ranking.” In fact, looking at Figure 10 of adoption through LocalBitcoins and Paxful, USD volume shows that every one of the countries in the top-10 list of unbanked have meaningful adoption.

Figure 10. LocalBitcoins and Paxful Vietnamese dong (VND) combined volume.

What does this tell us about Bitcoin adoption in unbanked countries? It tells us that it’s working. Continuing to see these trends improve will be good for Bitcoin adoption and not to mention the countries in which they are adopting it. All the ingredients are there. Most are unbanked with high internet access and an unreliable currency that isn’t natively digital. All you need is time for the adoption to take hold.

There are also some concerns that come up when thinking about Bitcoin adoption. Like, “How can they adopt bitcoin when it is so volatile?” Well, there are a few solutions to this problem. The first is that when a population has no choice, something as volatile as bitcoin could mean the difference between losing 30% or losing 90% over the span of one year. Keep in mind that bitcoin is already solving three of the major problems listed above, we are just remedying the problem of volatility.

First, look at just bitcoin and its use cases today. For some countries, their currency is just as volatile if not more volatile than bitcoin. Not only that, but it is volatile to the downside, continuing to lose value as the government steals and prints away spent time and energy. If bitcoin were to be used, sure it might be volatile, but this volatility is either short lived, or it’s to the upside.

Now look at bitcoin while using it for everyday transactions through Strike, as a more technical solution. This solution is currently available now in El Salvador as a test case and is starting to roll out to more and more countries. People use the Bitcoin and Lightning rails every single day but transact in USD, choosing to either save in bitcoin or not. This solution gives the best of both worlds. One, a population has the ability to transact short term in a currency that isn’t volatile, like other emerging countries. Two, this gives access to the payment rails of Bitcoin and the ability to save in the most scarce asset in existence. Looking back historically, bitcoin has grown at a 200% compound annual growth rate and this has the opportunity to conserve and grow wealth immensely. For someone in a developing world, this is life changing.

As this trend of adoption in underbanked countries continues, new and exciting ways where Bitcoin is used will emerge. For the first time in history, countries have the ability to store wealth in something that cannot be stolen. It gives the opportunity to transact freely without the permission of the state or government, and it allows people to break free from imposed serfdom. Bitcoin is here and it is only getting bigger. There is a change in the tides of time, and Bitcoin is a once-in-a-millennia technology that is pulling the shores.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/03/2021 – 18:20








Author: Tyler Durden

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Economics

Where Will Stocks End the Year?

A rollercoaster week for stocks … is this time different? … what historical data suggest about where the market will be in a month

A quick correction…

A rollercoaster week for stocks … is this time different? … what historical data suggest about where the market will be in a month

A quick correction before we jump into today’s Digest.

Yesterday, we invited readers to attend a special, live event next Tuesday at 7 PM ET with Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and Luke Lango called the Early Warning Summit 2022.

My apologies – we allowed a typo to slip through. Next Tuesday is the 7th, not the 17th as we published.

If you missed yesterday’s Digest that introduces the event, you can click here to read it.

In short, there are many issues overhanging today’s market. But they all reduce to one central question…

What’s the best way to position your money as we head into 2022?

Even though Louis, Eric, and Luke all approach the markets from unique perspectives with their own investment styles, they’re all in agreement on a series of steps investors should be taking today.

Next Tuesday’s Early Warning Summit 2022 dives into all the details.

Again, it’s next Tuesday the 7th at 7 PM ET. It’s a free event covering what these experts see coming for the markets, what to do about it in your portfolio, and far more. Click here to reserve your seat.

On to today’s Digest

***You can’t blame anyone who’s feeling motion sickness from this week’s volatility

On Monday, stocks rebounded from Black Friday’s carnage on. The S&P 500 recovered more than half its drop from Friday, surging 1.3%.

On Tuesday, that rally crumbled. The S&P 500 lost nearly 1.2% as Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell spooked markets with his hawkish policy comments. This resulted in the S&P closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 13.

On Wednesday, stocks went through a massive whipsaw. The Dow surged in the morning, only to drop roughly 1,000 points by the closing bell, going from “up 521” to “down 461.” This was due to fears about the new Omicron strain of Covid-19.

Yesterday, the markets exploded higher, as “buy the dip” came back in force. The Dow ended the day up 1.8%. Even the laggard, the Nasdaq, tacked on nearly 1%.

As I write Friday at noon, stocks are getting destroyed. The Nasdaq is leading the declines, off 2.8%.

Here’s how this rollercoaster looks (showing the S&P):

Source: StockCharts.com

What is this manic market telling us?

Is it just noise to be ignored, or is it signaling a material change in conditions that requires a similar change in our investment strategy?

Today, let’s see how our expert traders, John Jagerson and Wade Hansen are answering this.

After all, reaching your long-term investment goals requires staying in the market. And the odds of staying in the market improve when we have an idea of what to expect, why, and how long it might last.

Today, let’s get those insights from John and Wade.

***This current volatility shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise

For newer Digest readers, John and Wade are the analysts behind Strategic Trader, InvestorPlace’s premier trading service. It combines options, insightful technical and fundamental analysis, and market history to trade the markets, whether they’re up, down, or sideways.

To identify profitable trade set-ups, they analyze a variety of data points, ratios, chart patterns, indicators, and global markets. Together, all of this offers clues about where the market might be going. That’s why our current volatility wasn’t a surprise for John and Wade.

From their Wednesday update:

As we discussed a few weeks ago, there were early warning signs that volatility was likely to pick up for a short period.

We’ll continue to watch the high-yield bond market for signals that there may be some risks stock investors are ignoring.

As you can see in the following chart, junk bond traders [as represented by the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)] were selling while stock traders were buying prior to this most recent drop.

Chart comparing junk bonds to stocksSource: Trading View

A divergence between high-yield bond investors and the major stock indexes is a good predictor of short-term volatility. However, this is usually a short-term phenomenon.

John and Wade expand on this “short-term” characteristic. They ran a back-test, noting that since the financial crisis, the S&P has fallen more than 2% in a single trading session 107 times.

Now, take a guess. Of those 107 times, on how many occasions did the market go on to be higher than its pre-drop level within 30 calendar days (20 trading days)?

Got your answer?

John and Wade tell us it’s 75.7%. So, it’s understandable why they write “there is a very good chance the S&P 500 will be trading above $4,675 by December 30.”

***But is this time different?

Let’s jump straight to John and Wade:

In a situation like this, we usually get questions about the unique factor that is driving the market lower.

In this case, that is the Omicron variant, but there is always something that represents a big unknown that triggers large one- or two-day drops.

What would make us much more concerned about the short-term prospects for the market is a change in fundamental growth numbers. So far, expectations for earnings in the fourth quarter remain stable and positive.

However, if travel restrictions and lockdowns in Europe start to become more severe, we may have to adjust our expectations.

On that note, let’s hope that calmer heads prevail.

The reality is the Omicron strain is already spreading. As I write, the latest news is that cases have been found in California, Colorado, Minnesota, and New York.

Plus, our experience with the spread of the Delta strain suggests trying to “lock out” the virus isn’t especially effective.

This isn’t just my personal opinion – the World Health Organization recognizes the shortcomings in that approach.

From Sky News:

The World Health Organization has also urged countries to apply “an evidence-informed and risk-based approach” to travel measures, saying blanket bans will not prevent the spread of the new Omicron COVID variant.

This perspective is also supported by Dr. Angelique Coetzee, the South African epidemiologist who first identified the Omicron strain.

From CNBC:

Asked by the BBC’s Andrew Marr whether countries like the U.S., U.K., Israel and EU were “panicking unnecessarily,” Coetzee stressed that the omicron variant had already likely spread to those nations.

“I think you already have it there in your country without even knowing it so I would say at this stage, definitely. Two weeks on, maybe we will say something different,” she added.

Finally, keep in mind, despite Omicron’s potential for higher transmissibility rates, the current research suggests its symptoms are “mild.”

From RepublicWorld:

Detailing the difference between the Delta and Omicron variant of COVID, the South African doctor (Coetzee) stated that relatively milder symptoms were observed in cases of Omicron.

“The biggest difference between the two is that Delta will give you loss of smell, loss of taste in most cases. They will come in for fever, have an elevated pulse rate, and lower than normal oxygen levels. In Omicron’s case, oxygen stays normal, there is a very slight increase in pulse rate and no loss of smell. Only a scratchy throat and generally not feeling well for 1-2 days. They get well in a few days, even if you are vaccinated, it is still mild,” she said.

In any case, hopefully, encouraging data continue to emerge, travel bans lift, and the global economy accelerates.

However, John and Wade do find a silver lining in all this:

(The Omicron variant) makes it easier for the dovish Fed to justify a stall on tapering the bond purchase program, or at the very least, it is less likely for the Fed to raise rates or accelerate the tapering program.

During the last QE tapering campaign in 2014, bad news was often seen as a positive for the market because investors expected the Fed to focus on economic growth rather than holding back inflation.

For example, the big rally from February to March of 2014 was kicked off by a terrible U.S. manufacturing report.

***The bottom line on how to respond to this week’s craziness

Coming full circle, how should we respond to this manic market?

In short, even though it’s tough, stay the course for now.

Nothing about this latest volatility represents a truly material change in the primary drivers of today’s market. Earnings are still respectable, the economy continues to rebound, and we have a reasonable idea about upcoming Fed policy and timing.

Here’s John and Wade to take us out:

For now, we recommend sticking with the trend of the underlying fundamentals (positive) and the historical data that are both pointing towards higher prices by the end of the year.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

The post Where Will Stocks End the Year? appeared first on InvestorPlace.






Author: Jeff Remsburg

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Articles

Best Mining Penny Stocks to Buy Right Now? 3 To Look at This Month

Will these mining stocks make your watchlist? When discussing mining penny stocks,…
The post Best Mining Penny Stocks to Buy Right Now? 3 To Look at…

Will these mining stocks make your watchlist?

When discussing mining penny stocks, it is difficult not to highlight how well they have performed over the last year and a half. It all started with the pandemic, which pushed precious commodities like gold and silver to new highs. As a result, more types of mining equities began to perform better. There are far more of these assets than many investors think.

Many people think of gold and silver stocks when they think about mining assets. In reality, there are numerous different types of mining stocks. Companies in this category include those that look for copper, steel, uranium, lithium, lead, and other minerals. Bitcoin mining stocks, for example, can be considered for this type of asset.

What should you look for when investing in mining penny stocks, you may be wondering? There are a few critical actions that may be taken to ensure that the moment is perfect to invest in a company. The first and most obvious step is to read the news from across the world. Consider how the pandemic affected and continues to affect the mining industry. Sector news is also critical; for example, shortages and growing demand are useful pieces of information to have. Let’s look at three mining stocks performing well in December 2021.

Top Mining Stocks To Watch

Denison Mines Corp. (NYSE: DNN)

Denison Mines Corp. is a mining penny stock that just gained 2% on December 2nd. This is a mining business that is engaged in uranium development. The development business owns a 95 percent share in the Wheeler uranium project, which is located in the Athabasca Basin of northern Saskatchewan. This is a mining stock that has previously gotten a lot of attention on this site due to its consistent upward market momentum.

The corporation announced the adoption of an Indigenous Peoples Policy, or IPP, on December 2nd. The Board of Directors endorsed this, which indicates the company’s acknowledgment of the critical role of Canadian business in reconciling with Indigenous peoples in the country. This is consistent with Denison’s pledge to take action to advance reconciliation. This was critical for the corporation because it operates in several areas across Canada that are on Indigenous peoples’ traditional territory.

President and CEO of Denison, David Cates said, “I believe Industry has an important role to play in acknowledging, and building awareness of, the history of Indigenous people in Canada and the critical importance of pursuing the objectives of reconciliation. As such, the adoption of an Indigenous Peoples Policy is a notable step in our Company’s journey to bring reconciliation to the forefront of what we do and how we do it.” DNN stock has increased in value during the last six months. Will DNN stock be added to your watchlist as a result of its recent advancements?

IAMGOLD Corporation (NYSE: IAG)

IAMGOLD Corporation is a gold mining company that has seen its stock price rise in the previous 30 days. This firm looks for, develops, and manages land for the sale of gold in a variety of countries. IAMGOLD is a global company with operations in North America, South America, and West Africa. These territories are home to the Westwood mine, the Boto gold project, and a slew of other ventures.

IAMGOLD released their third-quarter results for 2021 on November 3rd. The firm released its third-quarter results for 2021 on November 3rd. IAMGOLD generated $121.6 million in mine-site free cash flow, while adjusted EBTIDA was $265.7 million. During the same time period, IAMGOLD reported a total net loss of $20.1 million, or $0.04 per share. Despite certain flaws in its financial results, IAMGOLD has had several moments of strong performance this year.

CEO and President of IAMGOLD, Gordon Stothart said, “The third quarter of 2021 saw improvement in our operating performance supported by the continued strong results at Essakane. Rosebel performed in line with the revised plan. Construction activities at Côté continue to proceed well, reaching 36% project completion at quarter-end.” Is IAG on your list of mining penny stocks to watch right now?

New Gold Inc. (NYSE: NGD)

We’ve previously identified New Gold Inc. as a mining penny stock with a lot of momentum on multiple occasions. This firm develops and manages a number of mineral properties throughout North America. The Rainy River gold-silver mine, which it controls 100 percent of, is one of its most important assets. The Rainy River mine is located in the Canadian province of Ontario. In addition, the corporation owns a 100% stake in the New Afton gold-copper mine. This mine is in the Canadian province of British Columbia.

On October 13th, the company revealed its third-quarter operational results. New Gold produced a total of 105,628 gold equivalent ounces throughout this time. Rainy River and New Afton mines yielded 60,785 and 44,843 gold equivalent ounces, respectively. Due to fewer tons milled, its gold equivalent production dropped in the third quarter.

President and CEO of New Gold, Renaud Adams said, “We remain on track to deliver on our updated guidance, and we continue to make progress towards securing the Company’s future growth at both assets. Our liquidity position improved for a third consecutive quarter, and I continue to expect meaningful free cash flow generation from our operations in the near-term” Amid these new developments, will NGD be on your mining penny stock watchlist?

Top Mining Penny Stocks To Buy?

Penny stocks are infamous for being extremely volatile and unpredictable. As a result, it is suggested that you concentrate on studying and investing carefully. No one knows what will happen to mining stocks in the market as long as inflation fears persist. As we approach 2022, only time will tell what happens to mining penny stocks. For the time being, which companies will you add to your watchlist?

The post Best Mining Penny Stocks to Buy Right Now? 3 To Look at This Month appeared first on Gold Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | GoldStocks.com.








iamgold corporation

Author: Jon Phillip

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