Silver price is back above $24 after dropping below this crucial support level earlier on Thursday. The US dollar and Treasury yields will remain the key drivers in the ensuing sessions.
Pullback in US dollar
Since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has been rallying; boosting the dollar index to a two-week high of 92.87 on Wednesday. At that level, it entered the overbought territory at an RSI of 79. The subsequent pullback has triggered a relief rally for silver price, which had dropped to below the crucial support level of $24 earlier on Thursday.
The value of the US dollar usually has an inverse correlation with precious metals. As such, a bounce back of the dollar index will likely curb the gains recorded by silver price.
At the same time, Treasury yields have extended Wednesday’s loss as a reaction to the strong demand for the 10-year yield notes. The Treasury auctioned yield notes worth $38 billion. It is also set to avail 30-year bonds worth $24 billion on Thursday.
As the week comes to an end, the US dollar and Treasury yields will continue to impact precious metals’ price movements. Data on US producer prices, which is scheduled for release on Friday, will further sway the market.
Silver price prediction
Silver price has bounced back above the crucial support level of 24 after dropping below it earlier on Thursday. Earlier in the week, the precious metal hit a high of 24.83. However, it erased those the gains by falling to an intraday low of 23.83 on Thursday.
At the time of writing, it was up by 1.38% at 24.27. On a two-hour chart, it is trading slightly above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. In the near term, silver price will likely remain above the psychological level of 24. It will probably trade within a tight range of between the support level of 24.10 and resistance level of 24.30, which is where the 25 and 50-day EMAs previously intersected.
While it remains a viable target, 24.50 will likely be evasive in the near term. On the flip side, one cannot dismiss the porosity of the support level at 24, which could give way to a fall lower to Thursday’s low of 23.83.
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US indices close week mixed, weighed down by tech stocks
Benchmark US indices closed the trading week mixed on Friday September 24 pulled down by losses in technology and healthcare sectors amid mixed global…
Benchmark US indices closed the trading week mixed on Friday, September 24, pulled down by losses in technology and healthcare sectors amid mixed global cues.
The S&P 500 was up 0.15% to 4,455.48. The Dow Jones rose 0.10% to 34,798.00. The NASDAQ Composite fell 0.03% to 15,047.70, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 0.49% to 2,248.07.
Global markets remained volatile this week amid mixed cues. US stocks wavered after news that Chinese real estate giant Evergrande Group was on the brink of a major default.
Its US$300 billion debt bomb has sent shockwaves across the global markets. On Thursday, it entered a 30-day grace period after missing an interest payment deadline.
The Fed's sooner-than-expected timeline for stimulus tapering also weighed on investors' minds. The central bank said this week that it is considering withdrawing its bond-buying program by November. Consequently, an interest rate hike may be imminent.
Separately, the Biden administration is also planning to increase the corporate tax. It is currently debating a spending bill, which is expected to outline the program.
On Friday, the energy and financial stocks were the top gainers on S&P 500 index. Real estate and healthcare stocks were the bottom movers. Six of the 11 index segments stayed in the green.
Shares of Nike, Inc (NKE) fell 6.17% after it lowered its sales forecast. The company said it is facing challenges to meet the demand for shoes and athlete wear due to delays in production and shipping. Nevertheless, its revenue jumped 16% YoY to US$12.2 billion in Q1, FY22.
Meredith Corporation (MDP) stock rose 25.27 percent after news that the magazine publisher is in advanced talks for its purchase by media and internet holding company IAC/InterActiveCorp.
In the healthcare sector, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) fell 4.65%, Dexcom Inc. (DXCM) shed 2.25%, and Waters Corporation (WAT) fell 1.78%. Resmed Inc. (RMD) and Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) ticked down 1.37% and 1.06%, respectively.
In technology stocks, Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) declined 3.04%, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) fell 1.89%, and Adobe Inc. (ADBE) declined 1.48%. Accenture plc (ACN) shed 1.20%, and Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) gained 2.47%.
In the energy sector, ConocoPhillips (COP) rose 2.43%, EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) gained 2.45%, and Baker Hughes Co (BKR) gained 1.25%. Hess Corporation (HES) and Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) advanced 1.10 and 3.21%, respectively.
In the crypto market, prices tumbled after the Central Bank of China declared crypto transactions illegal. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.49%, Ethereum (ETH) fell 7.74%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) declined 6.82%.
Futures & Commodities
Gold futures were up 0.03% to US$1,750.40 per ounce. Silver decreased by 1.21% to US$22.405 per ounce, while copper rose 1.20% to US$4.2817.
Brent oil futures increased by 1.04% to US$78.05 per barrel and WTI crude was up 0.93% to US$73.98.
Also Read: In the Spotlight: Top 50 US startups in 2021
The 30-year Treasury bond yields was up 3.15% to 1.985, while the 10-year bond yields rose 3.02% to 1.453.
US Dollar Futures Index increased by 0.27% to US$93.278.
Your cash will lose at least 5% of its purchasing power in the next year
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the real yield on dollar cash and cash equivalents is likely to be -5% or less over the next…
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the real yield on dollar cash and cash equivalents is likely to be -5% or less over the next 12 months. Yes, your cash balances will lose at least 5% of their purchasing power over the next year, and that's virtually guaranteed. So what are you—and others—going to do about it?
Assumptions: This forecast of mine optimistically assumes that 1) the first Fed rate hike of 25 bps comes, as the market now expects, about a year from now, and 2) the rate of inflation slows over the next 12 months to 5% from its year-to-date rate of 5.9%. Personally, I think inflation next year likely will be higher, if only because of the delayed effect of soaring home prices on Owner's Equivalent Rent (about one-third of the CPI), the recent end of the eviction moratorium on rents, and the continued, unprecedented expansion of the M2 money supply.
I'm a supply-sider, and that means I believe in the power of incentives. Tax something less and you will get more of it. Tax something more and you will get less of it. Erode the value of the dollar at a 5% annual rate and people will almost certainly want to hold fewer dollars than they do today.
I'm also a monetarist, and that means I believe that if the supply of dollars (e.g., M2) increases by more than the demand for dollars, higher inflation will be the result. We've already seen this play out over the past year: the M2 money supply has grown by more than 25% (by far an all-time record) and inflation has accelerated from less than 2% to 6-8%. Massive fiscal deficits have played an important role in this, but so has an accommodative Fed. Between the Fed and the banking system, 3 to 4 trillion dollars of extra cash were created over the past 18 months. At first that was necessary to supply the huge demand for cash the followed in the wake of the Covid shutdowns. But now that things are returning to normal, people don't need or want that much cash. Yet the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, and they won't finish "tapering" their purchases of notes and bonds until the middle of next year. That means that there will be trillions of dollars of cash sitting in retail bank accounts (checking, demand deposits and savings accounts) that people will be trying to unload.
If we're lucky, the inept and feckless Biden administration will be unable to pass its $1.5 trillion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion reconciliation bills in the next several weeks. This will lessen the pressure on the Fed to remain accommodative, but it's not clear at all whether it will encourage the Fed to reverse course before we have a huge inflation problem on our hands. Non-supply-siders (like Powell) view an additional $5 trillion of deficit-financed spending as an unalloyed stimulus for the economy. Supply-siders view it as a virtually guaranteed way to increase government control over the economy and thereby destroy growth incentives and productivity.
Amidst all this potential gloom, there are some very encouraging signs, believe it or not. Chief among them: household net worth has soared to a new high in nominal, real, and per capita terms. Also, believe it or not, the soaring federal debt has not outpaced the rise in the wealth of the private sector. See the following charts for more details:
First Weekly Outflow From Stocks In 2021
First Weekly Outflow From Stocks In 2021
After a tremendous stretch of non-stop weekly inflows into mutual funds and related investment products…
After a tremendous stretch of non-stop weekly inflows into mutual funds and related investment products since before the start of 2021, the latest week showed net selling of equities for the first time this year.
According to EPFR, net flows into global equity funds turned negative in the week ending September 22 to the tune of -$28.6BN vs +$45BN last week (which was one of the top 3 largest inflows on record), alongside the sizable drawdown in markets in the start of the week (if not the end). This was the biggest outflow from US stocks since Feb 2018. Offsetting the equity outflow was a massive $39.6BN going into cash (the largest since May’21), a modest $10.0BN into bonds (the smallest in 9 weeks), and a small $84MM into gold.
A more detailed breakdown of the equity flows by geographic segment:
- US: largest outflow since Feb’18 ($28.6bn)
- Japan: largest inflow in 8 weeks ($0.5bn)
- Europe: largest outflow since Dec’20 ($1.8bn)
- EM: inflows past 7 weeks ($2.6bn)
By style, the outflows were focused on US small cap ($2.9bn), US value ($3.3bn), US growth ($9.8bn), US large cap ($14.2bn).
By sector, the selling was pervasive with ever sector seeing outflows: energy ($0.2bn), real estate ($0.2bn); outflows materials ($12mn), coms svs ($0.1bn), utils ($0.2bn), hcare ($0.1bn), financials ($0.5bn), consumer ($1.0bn), tech ($1.2bn).
A key driver for the outflow according to BofA is pessimism over passage of $1tn BIB (Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill) scheduled Sep 27th & $3.5tn BBB (Build Back Better) Reconciliation which caused 2nd biggest outflow ever from infrastructure funds and largest consumer funds outflow YTD.
As Bank of America notes, we also had the first outflow from tech funds - the perennial market generals - since June.
The net selling was concentrated in the US market, although investors also net sold Western European shares. While Europe saw a total of $1.8BN in outflows, Goldman shows that demand for German equities has cooled ahead of this weekend's federal elections as shown in the bank's chart below.
Modest net selling of global EM benchmark products was more than offset by net inflows into country-specific products, including China-dedicated funds. By sector the largest net outflows (scaled by AUM) were from industrials.
Flows into fixed income products also cooled slightly (though remained positive), while FX flows favored CNY.
The question, as BofA's CIO Michael Hartnett suggests, is whether this is the end of the torrent of institutional and retail buying observed YTD. It matters because as the Bank of America strategist notes, global equity flows & global equity prices have been 93% correlated since ‘02, with both at all-time highs although in ‘21 equity inflows are much higher (>90%) than price (12%).
The BofA strategist also notes that despite the massive inflows in 2021, broad global indices such as NYSE (US stocks, ADRs, bond ETFs), S&P500 equal weighted, and ACWI ex-US have been stuck in elevated holding patterns for the past 6 months.
Finally, while the Monday meltdown may explain the outflow, how does one explain the latest week meltup? Well, as Hartnett explains, confirming the "bubble zeitgeist", majority of traders are “full-invested bears” but the anecdotal ratio of clients in “melt-up” vs “melt-down” camps currently 8:2, hence bullish price reaction to China/Fed/fiscal events this week, i.e., a vast majority are BTFDers.
According to the BofA CIO, history says the best way to hedge “bubble” is via “long leadership, long distressed” barbell, i.e. long leadership of bull (today = IG, tech, biotech…) & long distressed, cyclical plays (today = EM, energy, small cap) as investors chase laggards (the only market that outperformed Nasdaq in ’99 TMT bubble was Russia).
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