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US Dollar Mixed As Federal Reserve Pledges to Keep Interest Rates Low Until 2023

The US dollar is trading mixed against its G10 currency rivals midweek following the Federal Reserve‘s completion of its two-day policy meeting. The central bank left interest rates unchanged, and it pledged to keep rates lower for a few more years to support the economic recovery. With rates hovering near zero until at least 2023, how will this impact the greenback? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced […]

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The US dollar is trading mixed against its G10 currency rivals midweek following the Federal Reserve‘s completion of its two-day policy meeting. The central bank left interest rates unchanged, and it pledged to keep rates lower for a few more years to support the economic recovery. With rates hovering near zero until at least 2023, how will this impact the greenback?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that the benchmark fed funds rate would stay in the target range of 0% and 0.25%. Policymakers agreed to leave rates in this range for three more years, or until inflation consistently rises above the 2% target rate.

A month after Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed a new inflation approach, the FOMC adopted specific language to emphasize the newest objective.

With inflation running persistently below this longer run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved.

It will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.

The Eccles Building also released the latest economic projections, which include a lower gross domestic product (GDP) decline this year, as well as a falling unemployment rate. Looking ahead, the Fed expects 4% GDP growth in 2021, 3% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023. It expects the jobless rate to slide to 4% by 2023.

Ultimately, the Fed stated that the economic recovery would depend primarily on the coronavirus, noting that “the economy is pinned down by the coronavirus, and cannot achieve full recovery until the health crisis is under better control.”

The leading stock indexes rose on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the way by adding 300 points to just under 28,300. Gold and silver prices barely reacted, rising $6.20 and $0.051, respectively.

In other news, retail sales climbed 0.6% in August, short of the 1% market forecast. The reading is also down from the 0.9% gain in July. Business inventories rose 0.1% in July, up from the 1.1% drop in June. Mortgage applications tumbled 2.5% in the week ending September 11, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The US Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.01% to 93.06, from an opening of 93.05. The index has been clawing back this month, but it is still down 3.5% year-to-date.

The USD/CAD currency pair fell 0.23% to 1.3158, from an opening of 1.3186, at 18:29 GMT on Wednesday. The EUR/USD declined 0.19% to 1.1824, from an opening of 1.1848.


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Author: Andrew Moran

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Economics

US markets scale fresh highs on upbeat earnings, housing data

S P 500 and Dow Jones closed at record highs for the second consecutive day on Tuesday October 26 while Nasdaq rallied as quarterly results kept the…

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S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at record highs for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, October 26, while Nasdaq rallied as quarterly results kept the markets in high spirits.

The S&P was up 0.18% to 4,574.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04% to 35,756.88. The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.06% to 15,235.71, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 0.72% to 2,296.08.

Traders were further encouraged by the Commerce Department’s positive economic data, which showed new home sales jumped 14% to 800,000 units in September, the highest level since March. However, higher home prices still remained a major worry.

Energy and utility stocks led gains on the S&P 500 index, while industrials and communication services stocks were the bottom movers. Nine of the 11 sectors of the index stayed in the positive territory.

General Electric Company (GE) stock rose 2.19% in intraday trading after reporting its third-quarter earnings. Its adjusted profits were 57 cents per share, above the analysts’ estimates of 43 cents a share. However, its revenue fell by 1% YoY to US$18.4 billion in the quarter.

Shares of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) were up 7.38% after reporting better-than-expected results. Its revenue increased by 9.2% YoY to US$23.2 billion in Q3, FY21.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock tumbled 12.48% after it trimmed its revenue forecast. Its net sales fell to US$16.02 billion in Q3 from US$16.49 billion in the year-ago quarter. In addition, it lowered its revenue forecast for FY2021 due to supply woes.

In the energy sector, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) surged 2.30%, EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) rose 1.39%, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) gained 1.28%. Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) and Baker Hughes Company (BKR) rose 2.37% and 2.88%, respectively.

In utility stocks, NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) increased by 1.57%, Southern Company (SO) jumped 1.03%, and Exelon Corporation (EXC) rose 1.10%. DBA Sempra (SRE) and AES Corporation (AES) advanced 1.24% and 1.59%, respectively.

In the communication sector, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) rose 1.33%, Facebook, Inc. (FB) fell 4.52%, and Twitter Inc. (TWTR) declined 1.27%. Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) and News Corporation (NWS) plummeted 2.51% and1.17%, respectively.

Also Read: General Electric Co (GE) revises guidance upward after Q3 profits

Also Read: Raytheon (RTX) raises sales guidance, 3M (MMM) narrows EPS outlook

Nine of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index stayed in the positive territory.

Also Read: Eli Lilly (LLY), Novartis (NVS) profits up on robust sales growth

Futures & Commodities

Gold futures were down 0.70% to US$1,794.10 per ounce. Silver decreased by 1.55% to US$24.212 per ounce, while copper fell 0.71% to US$4.4958.

Brent oil futures traded flat at US$85.44 per barrel and WTI crude was up 0.85% to US$84.47.

Bond Market

The 30-year Treasury bond yields were down 2.06% to 2.042, while the 10-year bond yields fell 1.55% to 1.610.

US Dollar Futures Index increased by 0.15% to US$93.953.






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Precious Metals

Gold – A breakout is coming

Can the recovery continue? Gold has recovered strongly in recent weeks but it’s struggled for momentum since breaking above $1,800. The yellow metal…

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Can the recovery continue?

Gold has recovered strongly in recent weeks but it’s struggled for momentum since breaking above $1,800.

The yellow metal initially broke above here on Friday but failed to hold and gave back most of its gains to end the week below that important resistance level. This is a sign of weakness in the rally and suggested it may struggle when trading resumed this week.

While trading on Monday may have given the impression this was just a blip, as gold ended the day above $1,800, as we’ve seen today, those vulnerabilities remain as it once again plunged back below.

This leaves gold in a very strange position. It’s clearly still got plenty of support as it continues to push above the $1,800 handle but it’s having a hard time holding on and continues to be forced back. Something has to give.

At times today, it looked as though that may be a key support level around $1,780, which would have resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart and a break of the rising trendline formed during its recovery in recent weeks. But that support held and the price rebounded back.

Given such a tight range and one that’s becoming smaller by the day, one of these must soon fall, at which point we may have a much clearer view on the direction of travel for gold.

Author: Craig Erlam

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Precious Metals

Long-Bond, Big-Techs, & Black-Gold Bid As China Stocks Chunder

Long-Bond, Big-Techs, & Black-Gold Bid As China Stocks Chunder

While yesterday was dominated by more macro moves – gold, yield curve,…

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Long-Bond, Big-Techs, & Black-Gold Bid As China Stocks Chunder

While yesterday was dominated by more macro moves – gold, yield curve, and equity indices – today’s headlines were more focused on idiosyncratic moves in stocks…

TSLA gave up its early gains…

FB tumbled after running stops last night after earnings…

DWAC pumped and dumped…

And BKKT puked back a lot of yesterday’s post-close gains…

And finally BITO fell back below its launch price…

Small Caps were the laggards on the day but after a big rotation at the open, Nasdaq fell back, trending lower with the rest of the market. The Dow ended unch, giving up its gains with a weak close…

And while US Tech stocks rallied today, China Tech chundered hard after its recent dead cat bounce (dumping almost 4% today, the biggest loss in a month)…

Source: Bloomberg

The opening saw yet another huge short-squeeze but that appeared to flush out the last remaining bears on this move and “most shorted” stocks tumbled for the rest of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX spiked above 16.5 intraday today before vol-sellers re-appeared…

Credit markets refuse to follow stocks lead to new highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed, flip-flopping again to this time seeing the long-end bid (30Y -3bps) while the short-end yields rose 1-2bps, all of which left the curve 1-2bps lower in yield overall…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve reversed to flattening once again, back near crucial support once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended very marginally higher on the day but remains stuck in its recent narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto ended mixed but only marginally changed with Bitcoin finding support lower around $62k…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum holding above $4200…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was dumped back below $1800…

And WTI rebounded from yesterday afternoon’s slide to close just below $85 ahead of tonight’s API data…

And finally, remember the taper is coming soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/26/2021 – 16:01

Author: Tyler Durden

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