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What is the Greatest Threat to Your Investment Today? No, It’s Not the Government!

“Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull.” — Old Wall Street saying “I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong.” — Paul Samuelson…

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This article was originally published by Stock Investor

“Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull.” — Old Wall Street saying

“I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong.” — Paul Samuelson

I appeared last week on the Tom Woods Show to talk about something that has me deeply concerned. It is what academics call “loss aversion” — the fear of losing money. It’s a problem that all investors face, whether bullish or bearish.

Some investors are worried so much about losing money in the stock market that they become “permabears” and get out of the market completely. They live in mortal fear that the market is about to crash at any time and are vulnerable to prophets of doom who are predicting Apocalypse around the corner.

You can click here to listen to my interview with Tom Woods.

It is natural for investors to worry about losing positions. Recently, a subscriber came up to me at an investment conference and asked me about one of my recommendations that had lost money.

I told the investor to be patient and it would turn around. I then asked him, “Have you invested in any other stocks that I recommend?”

He said that all my other recommendations had made money for him — a lot of money.

And, yet, he was most concerned about the one stock that has decreased in value.

Beware of the Permabears

What is the greatest threat to your investments today? Normally, I tell subscribers that it’s the government. Washington can do a lot of harm to your investments via inflation, taxation and regulations.

But there’s even a greater risk out there — following bad investment advice from the prophets of doom and gloom.

These are the gold bugs and the majority of Austrian economists.

Why are Austrian Economists Doom-and-Gloomers?

Why are Austrian economists almost all pessimistic about the economy and the stock market?

I address this question in my book “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors.”

As my loyal subscribers know, I’m a big fan of Austrian economics, and I have written whole books on the subject, including my magnum opus, “The Structure of Production,” and “Vienna and Chicago, Friends or Foes?”

The title of my book “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street” is a play on Burt Malkiel’s classic work, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” I argue that the action of the stock market is not random, nor is it like a drunken sailor, whose next step is unpredictable.

To me, the stock market is like a waltz, with certain rules and patterns to follow, but still allows the freedom within those rules to move in a direction you desire. Sometimes it’s a slow waltz, like the Tennessee waltz, and other times it’s fast and exhausting like the Viennese waltz!

I learned this concept from the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, who argued that all action is “purposeful human action.” Behind every change in a stock price are the rational buy and sell decisions of human beings.

I have individual chapters and applications for each of the Austrian economists: Carl Menger on the importance of marginal pricing… Eugen Bohm-Bawerk on the value of saving and investing… Friedrich Weiser on the “great man” theory… Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek on the Austrian theory of the business cycle…

My Viennese Waltz book seeks to answer:

  • Why the “Austrian Indicator” (inverted yield curve) does a better job of anticipating recessions and market tops. Short-term rates are still low, and we have a positive yield curve, so I don’t see a crash happening any time soon.
  • Why gold and silver have become superior inflation hedges since President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold and silver are moving back up, finally!
  • How to distinguish between genuine prosperity and artificial prosperity. We have both going on now, with new technologies representing genuine prosperity, along with easy money and wasteful government spending as artificial prosperity.
  • Are we headed for another stock market crash? Will the dollar collapse? Not until interest rates rise sharply.
  • Where is the next asset bubble? It’s almost everywhere right now — in tech stocks, bonds, real estate and Bitcoin.
  • What are the dangers of the “gold bug syndrome”?

The last question concerns me the most, and it is the source of the “fatal flaw” — the tendency to be pessimistic and negative when the markets are optimistic and bullish (most of the time).

Austrian financial advisors know that Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek were pessimists. They both predicted the stock market crash in 1929, and were pessimists throughout the 20th century, having lived through two world wars and the Great Depression.

But they were stigmatized by these difficult times that they failed to see the strong recovery in the markets; the bulls were the big winners of Wall Street during the 20th century and into the 21st century. In fact, U.S. stocks outperformed all foreign markets.

Rich Dad’s Prophecy Fails Again

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has been predicting “the biggest crash in world history” since 2002, when he came out with a book entitled, “Rich Dad Prophecy.” He has repeated this same forecast in 2015 and 2021, only to be proven wrong time and time again. Just last month, he said his prophecy would come true.

I guess he hasn’t read my “Maxims of Wall Street,” which quotes John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” (p. 32, see www.skousenbooks.com).

He should also ask, “When I’m wrong, what am I missing?”

Kiyosaki has rightly warned that the Federal Reserve has overstimulated markets and devalued the dollar. He’s advised investors to prepare for the downturn by stocking up on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. It’s been a good call on these inflation hedges, even if he’s been wrong about an imminent stock market crash.

Good Financial Advisors Profit from the Inflationary Boom and Protect Themselves from the Bear Markets and Recession

There are two sides to the business cycle, so why not play them both? That’s my approach. The fatal error of most Austrian economists is that they get out of the market too easily, thinking that the inflationary boom can’t last for long and must turn into a bust.

As a result, they miss out on huge opportunities to make money.

Inflationary booms last much longer than the gold bugs expect, sometimes years, like 2003-2007, or 2009-2021, or longer.

And when the deflationary bust happens, it’s fast and furious. As they say on Wall Street, “the stock market takes the stairs up (the bull market) and the elevator down (bear markets).”

Or as Nicholas Vardy puts it, “The bull walks up the stairs. The bear jumps out the window.” (Both quotes are on p. 99 of “Maxims”).

I’m one of the few Austrian economists who takes full advantage of the bull market (I’m still 100% invested) but protects himself when the bear market finally appears.

How to Profit from Austrian Economics

If you want to join me and make money in both bull and bear markets, I urge you to go to www.skousenbooks.com and buy a copy of “A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors.” It’s a 256-page book that will tell you all you need to know about Austrian economics and finance.

See especially chapter 6 on the Austrian theory of the business cycle, pp. 37-60.

And be sure to check out the photo of Jo Ann and me dancing the Viennese Waltz in the front of the book!

The price is only $20 each, and I autograph each copy and mail it right away. It makes an excellent gift book during the holidays.

This Two-Day Conference Will Sell Out Soon

EconoSummit, April 2-3, 2022, Ahern Hotel, Las Vegas: Limited to 300 attendees, this private, two-day financial/economic conference has already sold 101 tickets. Sponsored by the Investment Club of America, the price is only $199 per person, and that includes a Saturday night dinner! I’ll be speaking on “Creative Disruption: How I Use Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) Theory to Profit from New Trends and the Boom-Bust Economy.”

Other speakers include Jim Woods, co-editor of Fast Money AlertEric Fleischman, M.D., advisor to the Hollywood stars on anti-aging and preventative medicine (a must-see), Ira Victor on personal and financial privacy in an age of big government and big business, attorney Josh Effron on your First Amendment rights and Jo Ann Skousen on the all-important cultural question: “Are We China?” To register, go to www.econosummit.com.

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

You Nailed It!

Aaron Rodgers, America’s #1 Quarterback and Hero

Aaron Rodgers, the long-time quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, should be congratulated for defying the government and pushing back on the National Football League’s political agenda.

After consulting with his medical advisors, he has chosen not to take any of the COVID-19 vaccines, contrary to the demands of the Biden administration and the NFL.

Rodgers is in a unique position to “Just Say No” to this drug. He is the reigning Most Valuable Player in the NFL, having won this award three times. He has a Super Bowl ring from 2010.

For skirting the NFL’s coronavirus protocols, Rodgers was fined $14,650 by the league for attending a Halloween party (a breach of protocol for unvaccinated players), and the Packers were slapped with a $300,000 fine, as well.

Fortunately, Rodgers can afford it. He recently had COVID-19 but has recovered and is expected to play on Sunday.

What I like about Rodgers is that he’s more than just a jock. He is a knowledgeable and well-educated citizen. He was a contestant on Celebrity Jeopardy several years ago with the late host Alex Trebek and won the contest against Kevin O’Leary of the “Shark Tank” television show. Rodgers donated his award of $50,000 to a charity.

Mandates are un-American. We should have a choice when it comes to what we inject into our bodies. We shouldn’t be treated like children.

I salute Aaron Rodgers and other citizens who have taken this courageous stand against the “Powers that Be” while withstanding media criticism that seems disproportionate for an American who simply is exercising his rights under the law.

The post What is the Greatest Threat to Your Investment Today? No, It’s Not the Government! appeared first on Stock Investor.
















Author: Mark Skousen

Precious Metals

Who Was Kondratiev & What Is the Wave Cycle Theory?

Kondratiev concluded that each long wave was driven by technological advances. He identified four distinct phases.
The post Who Was Kondratiev & What…

…Nicholas Kondratiev (1892–1938) was a Russian economist in the Soviet Union who was tasked by Josef Stalin to study long-term capitalist economies (U.S., Britain, and France wholesale prices and interest rates) and concluded that there were peaks and troughs in economic activity that lasted roughly 50–60 years. Other economists did similar work that traced similar cycles back to the Romans and even the Mayans that all supported Kondratiev’s work. (Kondratiev was rewarded for his efforts by being sent to Siberia by Stalin. Stalin didn’t like the fact that his theories also applied to Russia and that the capitalist economies would rise again from their depressions. Kondratiev died in a Siberian labour camp.)

This post by Lorimer Wilson, Managing Editor of munKNEE.com, is an edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) excerpt from an article by David Chapman, for the sake of clarity and brevity to provide you with a fast and easy read. Please note that this complete paragraph must be included in any re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Kondratiev concluded that each long wave was driven by technological advances. He identified four distinct phases.

  1. spring—beneficial inflationary growth, stocks rising, commodities and gold weak;
  2. summer—stagflation, recession, stock market weak, commodities and gold booming;
  3. autumn—deflationary growth, stocks booming (bubble?), commodities and gold weak;
  4. winter—deflation, depression, financial crisis, stock market weak, commodities and gold booming.

While Kondratiev’s study is important, we note that many economists do not buy into it. That is, no doubt, the old adage of stick ten economists in a room and you’ll have eleven different opinions.

Our table below on the Kondratiev Wave Cycles is based on generally consensus as the start and end of each wave. The long Kondratiev Wave is measured stock market trough to trough while the phases are measured trough to top, top to trough etc.

Kondratiev Wave Cycles—The Long Wave

Spring (expansion)

Beneficial inflation, economic growth, stocks up, commodities weak

Summer (recession)

Stagflation, weak economic growth, recession, stocks weak, commodities up

Autumn (plateau)

Mild deflationary growth, stocks up, possible bubble, commodities weak

Winter (depression)

Deflationary growth and steep recessions/depression, stocks weak, commodities up

Length of the Long Wave/Technological Drivers of the Long Wave
1784–1800

American Revolution, Indian Wars

1800–1816

War of 1812, Indian Wars, stagflation

 

1816–1835

“Era of Good Feelings,” Indian Wars, booming stock market

1835–1844

Indian Wars, the Hungry Forties, depression

60 years/steam engine, cotton, Industrial Revolution, age of steam and railways
18451858

Mexican American War, Indian Wars

1859–1864

U.S. Civil War, stagflation

1864–1874

reconstruction, Indian Wars, booming stock market

1875–1896

Indian Wars, the Long Depression

51 years/railways, steel, age of steel
18961907

Spanish-American War, Philippine- American War

1907–1920

WW1, Mexican Revolution, Banana Wars, Russian Civil War, stagflation

1921–1929

The Roaring Twenties, booming stock market

1929–1949

Great Depression, WW2, China Civil War

53 Years/electrical engineering, chemistry, age of oil, automobiles, and mass production
1949–1966

Korean War, Vietnam War, Cold War

1966–1982

Vietnam War, Indochina Wars, Cold War, Arab Oil Crisis, stagflation

1982–2000

“The New Economy,”

Gulf War, Yugoslav Wars, booming stock market

2000–2009

dot.dom bubble bust, global financial crisis, Great Recession, War on Terror – Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya

60 years/ petrochemicals, automobiles, age of information technology, telecommunications
2009-??

War on Terror -Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya

??/age of post-informational technology, artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy??

Note how war dominates the Kondratiev cycle. All periods experience war of some nature, whether it be ongoing low-level wars—i.e., Indian wars, War on Terror, etc.—or major wars like World War I and World War II. The last major Kondratiev cycle 1949–2009 saw ongoing wars, opening with the Korean War 1950–1953 and ending with the War on Terror 2001–2021. What war will dominate the next period? NATO/Ukraine/Russia, U.S./China, or something else?

If Kondratiev’s studies showed that the long wave lasted roughly 50–60 years, it appears to have concluded the last wave right on schedule. The last wave started with the end of the Great Depression and World War II in 1949 and, we conclude (our opinion), ended with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

  • The winter of the Kondratiev wave was 2000–2009. The period followed a classic pattern as stocks were weak while commodities boomed.
  • While we didn’t have a depression, we had two steep recessions, culminating in what became known as the “Great Recession” of 2007–2009. This was the result of the financial crisis of 2008 that almost collapsed the financial system. If it had not been for the actions of the central banks and governments a depression might have been a possibility. It is no surprise that all might not agree with this analysis.

We come to that conclusion because the next move was the long bull market that got underway in 2009 and economies once again returned to a period of growth driven by low inflation, QE, and ultra-low interest rates.

  • The stock markets eventually moved to new-all-time highs in 2013, signaling that the long period of weak stock markets was over.
  • Gold topped in 2011, oil had already topped in 2008, and
  • the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) topped as well in 2008 with a secondary top in 2011.

Our conclusion is that a new Kondratiev wave cycle got underway in 2009. If the long wave theory continues to hold, the current long wave could end somewhere between 2059 and 2069. As to the current spring phase that has an historical range of 11 to 17 years, average 14.3 years. The current spring phase will have its 13th anniversary in March 2022.

The question now is, are we poised to enter the second phase of the Kondratiev wave—the Kondratiev summer?

  • Given the rise in inflation,
  • the word stagflation now being bandied about, and
  • the recent rise in commodity prices with many of them making multi-year highs

we are seeing some of the prime characteristics of the “summer” of the Kondratiev wave cycle. At this time, we cannot confirm as to whether the stock market has topped. Confirmation could take a year or more.

During the last Kondratiev summer (1966–1982) the stock market topped in 1966. However, confirmation of that top didn’t occur until the stock market failed to make any significant new highs, despite strong rallies in 1968 and 1972–1973. Further rallies in 1976 and 1980 also failed to see any new significant all-time highs. It wasn’t until 1983 that the stock market left the period 1966–1982 behind for good. Gold rallied strongly during the period once the gold standard ended in 1971. Oil prices bubbled higher, thanks to the Arab Oil crisis of 1973 and the Iran hostage crisis in 1979. Other commodities also saw huge moves during this period. Gold did not go into a bubble market until 1976–1980. Commodity prices bottomed in 1968 and topped in 1980, rising some 250%.

We believe the Kondratiev wave cycle can be a useful tool, even though we freely admit the cycles of the Kondratiev wave are usually viewed in retrospect as are many cycles. However, what caught our eye was the resurgent commodity prices (CRB bottomed in March 2020) and the return of inflation that is beginning to look a lot more than just transitory. That, and the word “stagflation” keeps coming up. Stagflation has been a key characteristic of the Kondratiev summer. The period 1966–1982 was a long period of stagflation and ended only when Fed Chair Paul Volker hiked interest rates to unheard-of levels. The result was the very steep recessions of 1980–1982. We have noted that the central banks are trapped following years of ultra-low interest rates. Raising interest rates could spark a steep recession as it could cause problems for the housing market and more. During the last Kondratiev summer 1966–1982 bond prices plummeted (interest rates rose as prices move inversely to interest rates). The U.S. 30-year treasury bond made its final low in September 1981 as the 30-year U.S. treasury bond hit a high yield of 15.1%.

Since the bottom of the pandemic crash in March 2020 record funds have flowed into the stock markets, sparking new all-time highs and what many describe as a bubble. QE and ultra-low interest rates have unleashed a torrent of money printing contributing to the bubble. The pandemic sparked major supply disruptions as economies came back to life. There is the potential for climate change to spark more disruptions. That in turn leads to higher prices and inflation. The resurgence of COVID could also spark more disruptions. We are, we believe, in the early stages of new phase. If we are right, we are on the cusp of the Kondratiev summer and long period of stagflation, recessions, a weak stock market, and booming commodities.

Nothing, however, is coincidental and each component (stocks, bonds, commodities) will top and bottom at different times. The Kondratiev long wave is always measured from stock market trough to trough. However, phases of the long wave are measured from trough to top, then top to trough, etc. Evidence is surfacing that the spring phase of a new Kondratiev wave that got underway with the bottom in 2009 may be coming to an end. The question is, when will we see the final stock market top?

For those interested, there are numerous articles on the Kondratiev wave theory that can be found on the internet. In particular, one we wrote back in June 2006 may be of interest and appears to still be posted. It was titled “Looking Down the Road” and can be found at http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_062606.html.

Related Article From the munKNEE Vault:

1. Current Long Wave Kondratieff Winter Snow Storm to End in an Economic Avalanche – Here’s Why (+3K Views) October 13, 2012

There are several variations of Long Wave theory, but the most famous is based on the work of Nicolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who gave the various stages seasonal names, with summer and autumn denoting the peak of financial speculation and winter the aftermath of the resulting crash. The conditions for a global catastrophic failure are in place. Snow (in the form of trillions of new dollars and euros) is falling. There’s no way to know which dollar (or which external event) will start the avalanche, but without doubt something will. [Let me expand on why I hold that view.] Words: 888

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Author: Lorimer Wilson

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Economics

A Revised Comparison Of Gold, Silver, Platinum & Copper

Here’s an updated analysis of physical gold, silver, platinum and copper regarding their respective versatility of use, durability, fungibility, store…

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Here’s an updated analysis of physical gold, silver, platinum and copper regarding their respective versatility of use, durability, fungibility, store of value, liquidity and aesthetics.

Physical Properties Comparison

Table 1 below shows the physical properties of gold, silver, platinum and copper:@Gold&Silver

Physical Property Gold Silver Platinum Copper
Density (g/cm3) 19.30 10.49 21.45 8.94
Electrical Conductivity (S/m) 4.1×107 6.30×107 9.43×106 5.96×107
Reactivity Series (no units) #2 #3 #1 #5
Thermal Conductivity (W.m-1.K-1) 318 429 71.6 401
Young’s Modulus (GPa) 79 83 168 110-128
Hardness (Mohs scale) 2.5 2.5 4.25 3.0

If you didn’t graduate with honors in chemistry you needn’t worry – I have described each of the physical properties below:  

  • Density
    • Platinum has the highest density of the four metals which means that you can fit more mass of platinum in the same amount of volume than gold, silver or copper.
  • Electrical Conductivity
    • Silver possesses the greatest ability to conduct an electric current through its structure.
  • Reactivity Series
    • Platinum is the least reactive, followed by gold, silver, mercury and copper. This is why gold artifacts that have been buried for thousands of years have little to no tarnish on them – and why that long-lost silver vase of yours will need some polishing before it looks presentable for the mantelpiece.
  • Thermal Conductivity
    • Silver has the greatest ability to transfer heat through its structure than any of the other metals.
  • Young’s Modulus
    • Gold has the greatest ability to be hammered and stretched into long and flat shapes before losing its structural integrity.
  • Hardness
    • Platinum is the hardest of the four precious metals. This means that you will have more success in scratching a bar of gold with a platinum coin than the other way around.

It is now not very difficult to imagine how the physical properties of these metals have influenced their evolution over the centuries from jewelry to money to a presently ever-growing list of industrial and scientific applications but how do they stack up on a price-to-physical-property value scale?

Ratio of Prices of Each Per Unit of Physical Property

In Table 2 below I have presented the current prices (USD/ozt as of December 6th, 2021) of these metals and the corresponding ratios of prices-per-unit-of-physical-property from Table 1.

Gold Silver Platinum Copper
Dec. 6, 2021 Price (USD/ozt) $1779.50 $22.26 $1203.20 $0.27109
RATIO PRICE DIVIDED BY PHYSICAL PROPERTY IN FIGURE 1
Density 92.2 2.12 56.1 0.033
Electrical Conductivity**  ?  ?  ?  ?
Thermal Conductivity 5.596 0.052 16.8 0.000676
Young’s Modulus 22.53 0.268 7.162 0.0025/0.0021
Hardness 711.8 8.90 283.1 0.0904

**[Editor’s Note: Higher mathematics is not my forte so I was not able to do the required calculations. If you can, it would be appreciated if you advised me of the numbers in the comment section below. Thank you.]

As can be clearly seen from Table 2, if you want to get decent bang for your electrical buck – or any other buck for that matter – copper stands out as being the best value-for-money. Of course, everyone already knows this.

What useful information is…[ to be had]  from the above figures in Tables 1 and 2?…

Despite silver’s better electrical and thermal conductivity and similar Young’s Modulus to gold, its price ratio in these three physical properties makes it appear to be extremely cheaper than gold. As such, one may conclude that currently silver is a much better investment than gold.

What about platinum and its unusually low price relative to gold today? Historically platinum has traded at a premium to gold. While today you will get a better bang for your buck if you use gold for electrical and thermal conductivity applications rather than platinum, copper trumps both of these metals in that regard so the price difference between gold and platinum must be coming from a different use of the metals.

Store-of-value Potential

…Clearly a coin or bar made from platinum will be a better store of value – at current prices – than gold. Why? Simply because platinum:

  • is harder (won’t scratch),
  • less reactive (won’t tarnish) and
  • occupies a smaller volume (easier to store) than gold.

[Nevertheless,] the market seems to think that these physical properties are deficient to something else. Perhaps it comes down to the possibility that:

  • central banks simply can’t get enough platinum bullion (due to its rarity in the earth) to make it worth their while to replace their gold bullion or perhaps that
  • platinum has been unable to (in its short existence) shake off gold as the true form of money.

Conclusion

Whatever the case may be for you, I believe that an analysis of precious metals from a physical property perspective not only raises interesting questions but may also yield some valuable insights….

The above article, prepared by Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your KEY To Making Money! consists of edited excerpts* from the original article by Krassen Ratchev
(*The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.)

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Author: Lorimer Wilson

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Articles

Resources Top 5: Hopeful uranium stocks, an important graphite deal, and lots of imminent news flow

Aspiring graphite miner Black Rock invited to finalise agreement with Tanzanian government Cauldron Energy dusts off Yanrey uranium project, despite ……

  • Aspiring graphite miner Black Rock invited to finalise agreement with Tanzanian government
  • Cauldron Energy dusts off Yanrey uranium project, despite government opposition
  • Redstone (copper, cobalt), Latrobe (magnesium) and Empire (gold, copper, nickel, PGEs) up on no news

Here are the biggest small cap resources winners in early trade, Tuesday December 7.

 

CAULDRON ENERGY (ASX:CXU)

(Up on no news)

When the WA state government implemented a ban on most new uranium mines in 2017, CXU stopped work at its flagship ‘Yanrey’ uranium project and began searching for other dirt to play with.

It now has a historic gold project called ‘Blackwood’ in Victoria and a silica sands play called ‘Ashburton’ in WA. It is also poking around Yanrey again, which is a lot more interesting now that uranium prices are on the move.

While government support (or lack thereof) for new mines has not changed, a recent survey uncovered a bunch of “highly prospective targets for follow-up drilling” at Yanrey.

“Our ultimate objective is to explore for uranium mineralisation amenable to extraction by ISR,” CXU exec chairman Simon Youds says.

“Economic deposits of sandstone-hosted, palaeochannel-style uranium can be mined using ISR in the lowest cost quartile of uranium mined globally.”

“This characteristic makes these deposits extremely attractive for mining at any uranium price and necessarily must form the basis of any uranium resource portfolio.”

Yanrey exists within a larger uranium province that is slowly being uncovered, Youds says.

“There is potential here for a scale comparable to the best uranium-endowed province globally and that, with astute leadership, Western Australia is at the threshold of a new energy resources boom.”

At Blackwood, CXU has stumbled upon visible gold in an underground area historically excavated for access purposes only:

“The visible gold observed, coupled with the beautiful sandstone-shale contact and structurally complex geology, provides an exciting new target for drill testing,” Youds said in November.

“The observation of visible gold further increases our confidence in the remaining mineral potential of these historical mines.”

The $11.5m market cap stock is down 6% over the past month, and 30% year-to-date. It had $1.5m in the bank at the end of September.


 

REDSTONE RESOURCES (ASX:RDS)

(Up on no news)

The nanocap, which has partially bounced back from recent losses in early trade Tuesday, is drilling to grow the 38,000t copper, 535t cobalt ‘Tollu Copper Vein’ deposit, part of the ‘West Musgrave’ project in WA.

Tollu hosts “a giant swarm of hydrothermal copper rich veins” in a mineralised system covering a +5sqkm area, ~40km from OZ Minerals’ (ASX:OZL) world-class Nebo-Babel nickel-copper deposit.

A conceptual (theoretical, not real yet) exploration target suggests up to 627,000t of copper may be present, the company says.

Recent portable XRF analysis of new drilling returned hits like 16m at 2.62% copper from a 74m downhole, including 6m at 6% copper from 76m.

These will be confirmed by traditional assay, the company says. Labs are backed up to the hilt, so who knows when that will be.

RDS say exploration will continue “at the earliest opportunity” in 2022 with a deeper RC drilling program at priority targets.

The $12m market cap stock is up 30% over the past month. It had $2.6m in the bank at the end of the September quarter.

 

BLACK ROCK MINING (ASX:BKT)

It’s been a good news week for aspiring graphite miner BKT.

Today it announced it had been invited by the Mining Commission to attend a ceremony in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on Monday 13 December “to finalise an agreement with the Government of Tanzania”.

Black Rock managing director John de Vries is currently in country and is expected to attend, BKT says.

The company has also just completed a massive 500t pilot plant run – the largest ever, it says — to send off for qualification (testing) to potential customers in North America, Asia and Europe.

This will ultimately support project financing, BKT says.

The company now needs to finalise off-take terms with cornerstone investor POSCO, and secure finance to underpin a $US116m Phase 1 development capex program.

The $183m market cap stock is down 10% over the past month, and up 115% year-to-date. It had $9.3m in the bank at the end of September.

 

LATROBE MAGNESIUM (ASX:LMG)

(Up on no news)

Early works – like fixing fences, site clean-up, contracting — are happening apace at LMG’s magnesium project in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley, with construction on an initial 1,000 tonne per annum magnesium plant due to kick off in Q1 2022.

Production starts up to 12 months later in Q4 2022.

The plant will be expanded to 10,000 tonnes per annum magnesium shortly thereafter, with further plant capacity expansion to be considered once it is operating successfully.

Magnesium has the best strength-to-weight ratio of all common structural metals and is increasingly used in the manufacture of car parts, laptop computers, mobile phones, and power tools.

In November, LMG said current magnesium price was US$6,150 per metric tonne and expected to hold.

“LMG’s revenue estimates are based upon US$3,250 per tonne which was the magnesium price in June 2021, before the China supply shortage commenced in September 2021,” it says.

“If the current price of US$6,150 per metric tonne held long term, it would increase LMG’s estimate of EBITDA for its 10,000tpa plant by some $56m.”

In 2020, world magnesium production was ~1 million tonnes, of which China supplied ~85%.  China has begun a 13-year plan to increase Mg in cars from 8.6kg to 45kg by 2030, requiring an additional 1 million tonnes of new Mg production per annum.

$131m market cap LMG is down 21% over the past month, and up 335% year-to-date. It has raised $11.5m  via placement to help fund the initial $39m 1,000tpa plant.

 

EMPIRE RESOURCES (ASX:ERL)

(Up on no news)

This busy polymetallic explorer has already drilled 13,000m so far in 2021 at the ‘Penny’s and Yuinmery’ projects in WA, with diamond drilling of some juicy gold, copper, and nickel-copper-PGE targets at Yuinmery due to kick off sometime this month.

ERL would’ve drilled even more if not for issues getting hold of a rig, something the company intends to fix in 2022.

“Our exploration plans for 2022 include the lock-in of a core drilling rig and driller for exclusive use by Empire,” chairman Michael Ruane says.

“This should assist in accelerating at least the drilling component of our exploration programs for the forthcoming period. The rig will be particularly useful for the deep drilling required for the promising Yuinmery targets (eg Smiths Well/YT01).”

The rig should be ready for commissioning this month, he says.

The $14.85m market cap stock is up 30% over the past month. It had about $3.5m in the bank at the end of November.


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Author: Reuben Adams

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