Precious Metals
Industrial production and retail sales both improve strongly in July, suggest further gains in employment
Industrial production and retail sales both improve strongly in July, suggest further gains in employment

This morning two important indicators for July, with implications for future employment, were released: retail sales and industrial production.

Note that production actually peaked in summer 2018, and was already on a slightly fading trajectory thereafter before the pandemic hit.
Thus, three of the four monthly coincident indicators (including employment) used by the NBER to determine if the US is in recession or not, all indicate that July marked the 3rd month of a recovery. Note they do *not* forecast whether the recovery will last – they are nowcasting tools only.
As noted above, both retail sales and industrial production do have implications for future employment.

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