The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcasts: Positions are getting entrenched, and spreading down-ticket

Which brings me to the matter of Nate Silver, who unveiled his “forecast” this past week.

Last week I noted that Trump’s approval was reverting to the mean, as were the Presidential polls. The former trend has stalled; the latter has shifted slightly further in Biden’s favor.

Here is Nate Silver’s Trump approval vs. disapproval graph:


After languishing at 40%, equivalent to the worst levels of his Presidency, Trump’s  partisans came back to supporting him again, as they always have for the past four years. Will his transparent trashing of the Postal Service in order to thwart voting by mail cause another temporary erosion of support? Too soon to tell.

In any event, here below is the updated map through August 15. To refresh, here is how  it works:

– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.


There were very few changes this week. New polling moves Arizona from “lean” to “likely” Biden. North Carolina and the State of Nebraska at large both move back from “lean Trump” to “toss-up.” On the other hand, Minnesota moves from “solid” to “likely Biden.”

There are a few States where I have had to rely on older polling, and really need to be updated, notably Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia.

Once again, based on the current map Biden just has to win the “solid” and “likely” States, and need not win any of the “lean Biden” States, in order to win the election.

I continue to be of the opinion that Trump has 3 weeks left – until Labor Day – to work a miracle with the coronavirus pandemic. If it is about where it is now, then the economic fundamentals + the casualties from the pandemic indicate that Biden will win the popular vote in November, although the race seems likely to tighten somewhat, because the short leading economic indicators have been suggesting the economy will improve somewhat.