Futures Slide Ahead Of Tech Earnings Deluge
One day after stocks staged a remarkable rebound and closing well in the green after sliding as much as 1.5% (ostensibly after getting a boost from the latest bout of bearishness from Dennis Gartman), index futures are trading lower again despite another attempt by China’s central bank to reassure investors overnight that China’s sliding risk assets will rebound, with investors once again preoccupied by risks from aggressive monetary tightening. S&P500 futures contracts were 0.4% not too far off the worst levels ahead of a busy session of earnings releases including Google, Microsoft and Google; Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.3%. Treasuries were steady and the dollar gained.
“Markets in general are preoccupied by the prospect of tighter monetary policy conditions from global central banks to stem rising prices,” said Cesar Perez Ruiz, chief investment officer at Pictet Wealth Management. “Indeed, while the Federal Reserve and the ECB both stepped up their inflation-fighting rhetoric, they failed to prevent market-based inflation expectations from moving higher.”
Twitter extended gains in premarket trading after Elon Musk agreed to buy the social media company for $44 billion. Its shares are still trading below the offer price of $54.20 per share. Analysts say Musk’s vision to reduce moderation to promote free speech could put the social media company’s advertising dollars at risk. Here are some of the other big U.S. movers today:
- Meme stock Cenntro Electric (CENN) drops as much as 15% in U.S. premarket trading, after the maker of commercial electric vehicles reported a net loss of $16.4 million for 2021.
- Redbox Entertainment (RDBX) shares rise 2.8% in U.S. premarket trading after the company disclosed after Monday’s close that CFO Kavita Sutha had resigned.
- O-I Glass (OI) “crushes” its first-quarter, according to Truist Securities, with the broker noting the glass bottle maker’s operating profit beat and a guidance hike. O-I shares were up 12% in postmarket trading.
- Venator Materials (VNTR) jumps as much as 27% in premarket trading Tuesday after the company reached an $85 million cash settlement with Tronox Holdings over a break fee from a failed chemical plant deal dating back to 2018.
- Nkarta (NKTX) shares slump 8% in U.S. premarket after launching a stock offering via Cowen, SVB, Evercore at a price of $15/share that represents 19.9% discount to last close.
- Universal Health’s (UHS) weaker-than-expected results and potential guidance downgrade were driven by labor headwinds, analysts say. Shares fell 12% in after-hours trading.
- Protagonist Therapeutics’ (PTGX) PN-943 drug candidate “still has legs to make it across the finish line,” despite the Phase 2 data showing that a 450 mg BID dose did not meet its primary endpoint. Shares fell 31% in postmarket trading.
- Barclays sees positive fundamentals for medical office building property category, expanding coverage with initiations on Healthcare Realty Trust (HR US) and Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) at overweight.
Companies reporting earnings on Tuesday include Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet and Visa.
European stocks traded well, the Stoxx 600 Index 0.8% higher with energy and mining shares gaining as commodity prices rebounded. Euro Stoxx rises as much as 1.25%, roughly halving Monday’s decline. Miners and real estate lead broad sectoral gains. A third of Stoxx 600 companies will be updating on earnings and sales this week.
Asian stocks pared most of their early Tuesday advance as Chinese shares gave up gains spurred by a renewed central bank pledge to support the region’s biggest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.3% as of 5:38 p.m. in Hong Kong, versus an earlier rally of as much as 0.8%. China’s CSI 300 Index ended 0.8% lower as worries about a potential city-wide lockdown in Beijing weighed on sentiment. Still, a gauge of the nation’s tech stocks jumped almost 3% in Hong Kong on fresh policy promises to end a regulatory crackdown in the sector. Continued losses in Chinese equities have weighed on the Asian stock benchmark, which is headed for a fourth straight month of losses. China’s government expanded Covid-19 testing to most of Beijing, sparking fears about an unprecedented lockdown. Traders have said a change in the nation’s Covid-Zero strategy is the key to turning around sentiment.
“It would be difficult to see a quick improvement in sentiment” amid weak market fundamentals and fund flows, said Kim Kyung Hwan, a Chinese equity strategist at Hana Financial Investment in Seoul. “Market players are waiting for stronger measures, such as an interest-rate cut.” Elsewhere in Asia, stocks rose in India and South Korea while those in Australia slipped. Traders are also monitoring results releases in what is set to be the busiest week of the current earnings cycle in Asia.
Japanese equities rose for the first time in three sessions, boosted by gains in telecoms. Service providers also lifted the Topix, which rose 0.1%. SoftBank Group and M3 Inc. were the largest contributors to a 0.4% rise in the Nikkei 225
Australian stocks fell the most in two months on the continued Materials selloff. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 2.1%, the most since Feb. 24, to close at 7,318.00, as trading resumed after a three-day break. The materials and energy groups led declines following drops in commodities prices. EML Payments tumbled to the lowest level in two years after lowering its revenue and earnings forecasts for the full year. Nufarm was among the biggest gainers, rising to its highest level since September 2018 after issuing 1H guidance. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 11,813.18.
Fixed income grinds higher with 10y bund and UST futures erasing Asia’s losses; the 10-year TSY is around 2.795% outperforming bunds by ~2.5bp, gilts by ~3.5bp. Treasuries are moderately richer across the curve, sharply outperforming bunds and gilts over the London session, although 10-year note futures remain inside Monday’s range. US yields are richer by 1bp-3bp across most of the curve with long-end lagging slightly, steepening 5s30s and 10s30s by ~2bp. Peripheral spreads widen to cover with long-end Portugal underperforming. Japan’s bond futures gained after the central bank said it will extend its unlimited debt buying operation by two more days.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a fourth day, as the greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury yields dropped 2-3 bps across the curve. The euro fell to touch $1.0673, the lowest level since March 2020. European bonds were little changed, underperforming U.S. Treasuries. China’s yuan rose for the first time in six days after the nation’s central bank pledged to support the economy through targeted financing for small businesses, and a quick resolution of the ongoing crackdown on technology firms, in a bid to reassure investors nervous about growth and Covid lockdowns. Australian dollar climbed on leveraged buying as China’s policy-support pledge spurred a turnaround in the nation’s stock indexes and added to a bounce in oil and iron ore. The yen was set for its longest winning streak in almost a month. The pound ticked lower against the dollar amid broad-based greenback strength and Gilts inched up, led by the short end. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will urge ministers to explore “innovative ways” to ease pressures on household finances on Tuesday
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI eventually finding support near $97. Spot gold posts small gains, Bitcoin holds a narrow range near $40,500. Binance has launched Binance Refugee Crypto Card for all current and new Binance users from Ukraine moving to EEA countries
Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, preliminary March data on durable goods orders and core capital goods orders, the FHFA house price index for February, and new home sales for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos. Finally, earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Pepsico, UPS, Texas Instruments, General Electric and General Motors.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,281.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 448.67
- MXAP up 0.2% to 166.28
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 546.79
- Nikkei up 0.4% to 26,700.11
- Topix up 0.1% to 1,878.51
- Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,934.71
- Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,886.43
- Sensex up 1.0% to 57,161.33
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.1% to 7,317.98
- Kospi up 0.4% to 2,668.31
- German 10Y yield little changed at 0.84%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.0687
- Brent Futures down 0.3% to $101.97/bbl
- Brent Futures down 0.3% to $101.97/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,902.86
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 101.89
Top overnight News from Bloomberg
- ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks says the central bank should raise interest rates soon and has room for as many as three hikes this year, Reuters reports
- The renewed pledge by Chinese authorities to boost the economy is being met with skepticism by stock traders worried about a potential city-wide lockdown in Beijing
- China’s central bank pledged to increase support for the economy, seeking to reassure investors as financial markets take a hammering from a worsening growth outlook and threats of widespread Covid lockdowns.
- China’s economy slowed rapidly in April as the costs of both a worsening Covid outbreak and the nation’s stringent approach to eliminating the virus took their toll.
- Oil held its decline below $100 a barrel as investors assessed the impact of China’s Covid-19 resurgence on the outlook for global demand.
- Base metals in London plunged on Monday, following sinking iron ore markets in Asia as investors fret over deteriorating demand outlook in China and higher interest rates in western economies.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher with bourses in the region encouraged after the rebound on Wall Street. ASX 200 bucked the trend as the prior day’s rout caught up with markets in Australia and New Zealand on return from the extended weekend, with miners pressured by tepid output from South32 and Woodside Petroleum. Nikkei 225 gained after a surprise decline in Unemployment and amid preparations for a relief package. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lifted as strength in tech helped the former reclaim the 20k level and after further PBoC policy support pledges gradually offset the initial Beijing COVID-19 jitters in the mainland.
Top Asian news
- BOJ Extends Unlimited Bond Buying Into Policy Meeting This Week
- China Tech Stocks Rebound as Beijing Renews Policy Support
- China Is Running Out of Ways to Stem Self-Made Market Meltdown
- Tencent-Backed Fintech Startup Airwallex Said to Seek New Funds
European bourses feel some reprieve following the bout of selling seen in recent sessions and following Wall Street’s afternoon bounce yesterday. Sectors are all in the green but to varying degrees – with Basic Resources rebounding with a vengeance after yesterday’s slide, albeit Energy has failed to hold onto early gains as the underlying commodity price wanes. Stateside, US equity futures trade relatively flat with a mild downside bias (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RYT -0.1%, YM -0.1%), trimming earlier losses. United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 3.03 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 24.4bln (exp. 23.79bln), reaffirms guidance; doubles buy-back target to USD 2bln
Top European News
- Germany to Send Anti-Aircraft Tanks to Ukraine in Policy Shift
- European Gas Prices Swing With Focus on LNG Imports, Russia Flow
- Gupta’s GFG Alliance Offices in Paris Raided by French Police
- Sunak Warns Future Generations at Risk From U.K. Debt Burden
- Dollar mixed as broad risk appetite returns after Monday’s flight to safety; USD down vs high betas, but up against most index components.
- Aussie and Kiwi refreshed following long holiday weekend and further rebound in Yuan on the back of China’s RRR reduction effective May 15
- Euro and Pound flounder as DXY eyes 102.000 and conflict contagion weighs heavier in Europe relative to the US
- Yen continues to consolidate off multi year lows after a dip in Japan’s unemployment rate and Government rolls out fiscal relief measures
- Japanese PM Kishida said rapid FX moves are undesirable; no comment on specific JPY levels.
- Debt futures resume recovery rally or retracement from recent cycle lows with curves a tad flatter ahead of 2 year US auction
- Bunds are just shy of Monday’s 155.26 peak, Gilts back above 119.00 and 10 year T-note eyeing 120-00
- BTPs hold firm following Italian issuance, irrespective marginally softer cover ratios
- UK debt lags after larger than forecast PSNB deficit and upwardly revised 2022/32 DMO remit
- UK DMO raises its 2022/23 Gilt issuance remit to GBP 131.5bln from GBP 124.7bln and sees GBP 7bln additional T-bill sales
- WTI and Brent June futures continue drifting lower as the crude complex continues to be dampened by China’s COVID situation.
- Spot gold was pressured by the firmer Buck and fell to a current intraday low of USD 1,894/oz in early trade before finding a base and reclaiming a USD 1,900/oz handle
- Base metals, meanwhile, are mostly firmer in what is seemingly a rebound following yesterday’s downside.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange raises trading limits and margin requirements for steel rebar, wire rod, and hot rolled coils futures from settlement on April 28.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: March Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.0%, prior -2.1%; -Less Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior -0.6%
- 08:30: March Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior -0.2%
- 09:00: Feb. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 19.20%, prior 19.10%
- Feb. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.79%
- 10:00: April Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 108.2, prior 107.2
- Present Situation, prior 153.0; Expectations, prior 76.6
- 10:00: April Richmond Fed Index, est. 9, prior 13
- 10:00: March New Home Sales, est. 768,000, prior 772,000
- March New Home Sales MoM, est. -0.6%, prior -2.0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’ll admit to being a bit tired this morning as at 2am I got woken by loud constant shouts of “Daddy, Daddy”. On bleary eyed investigation one of the twins wanted to know when we are next going to a water park. As we haven’t discussed this or been to one since last summer this was a bit random. I said it was inappropriate to shout the house down at 2am to ask this. He then said “what’s inappropriate mean”. I angrily shut the conversation down which didn’t help him or I get back to sleep very quickly.
The market felt tired and worn down by the building risks yesterday and by the time Europe closed things were looking pretty bleak. However a late rally turned the S&P 500 from being -1.67% to closing +0.57%. The Nasdaq closed +1.29% and was rallying back even before Twitter agreed to sell the company to Elon Musk. Outside of that late story it was hard to find a narrative for the strong rebound. Tech stocks will stay front-and-center though as earnings progress this week, with Microsoft and Alphabet both set to report after the close tonight.
It was much easier to find a narrative for the earlier sell-off as investors grappled with the continued Covid outbreak in China, further signs of inflationary pressures, and the prospect that the Fed and other central banks’ hiking cycles might push their economies into recession. As Europe closed the S&P was over -7% lower in April and on track to see the worst month since the pandemic rout of March 2020. Even with the rebound, the index is still more than -5% lower over April and still at risk of taking the ignominious title of worst monthly return since Covid if it dips below this January’s -5.26% return.
Bonds also sold off with the US equity bounce back but unlike equities held on a large proportion of the days gains. 10yr Treasuries closed down -7.9bps to 2.82%, after being as much as -14bps lower intraday. That decline was driven by declining inflation expectations, as growth fears dominated. Given the global growth fear flavour of yesterday’s risk off, the 2s10s curve flattened -3.7bps to 18.8bps, as 2yr yields lagged the longer-maturity rally. The curve has maintained its level this morning but the yield reversal has continued with 2 and 10yr yields both back up around +3.5bps as we type.
The dollar was another significant beneficiary yesterday, strengthening +0.53% to levels not seen since March 2020, and leaving it on track for its best monthly performance since January 2015. It’s given up -0.18% of the gains so far this morning.
As discussed, the biggest concern yesterday came from China, where the potential that there could be a lockdown in Beijing (in addition to the one already in Shanghai) saw the CSI 300 (-4.94%) fall to a 2-year low in yesterday’s session, marking the index’s worst daily performance since the original Covid-19 outbreak there in February 2020. This morning the index is +0.90% higher with the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) also trading in positive territory after the PBOC reassured markets of their policy support for the economy. That comes as Beijing expanded its Covid testing to 11 further districts from today until April 30, with growing questions as to how the economy will perform against the backdrop of further lockdowns, particularly if the country continues its Zero Covid strategy. Other Chinese assets are also struggling, with the offshore Yuan weakening to its lowest levels against the US Dollar since 2020, though yesterday the People’s Bank of China said in a statement that they will lower banks’ FX reserve ratio from 9% to 8% beginning May 15. Overnight, the Yuan has witnessed a rebound, climbing +0.4% to 6.533 against the US dollar, snapping five days of losses.
Elsewhere in Asia, equity markets are mostly trading higher with the Hang Seng (+1.81%) leading gains across the region in early trading amid a gain in tech stocks. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.51%) is up following the release of upbeat jobs data. Data showed that Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percentage points to 2.6% in March while the Job-To-Applicant Ratio improved to +1.22 in March from +1.21, climbing for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Kospi (+0.60%) is climbing after South Korea’s Q1 GDP data surprised on the upside. The nation’s GDP expanded +0.7% q/q, slowing from +1.2% a quarter earlier, but slightly faster than the +0.6% expected.
Looking ahead, stock futures in the US are pointing to a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.23%) and Nasdaq (+0.25%) trading up with European future soaring (Stoxx 50 +1.66%) after the poor close yesterday.
European sovereign bonds are likely to sell off at the open after a strong close yesterday before the risk relief rally. Yesterday, yields on 10yr German bunds (-13.5bps) saw the biggest declines as havens outperformed. The French 10yr spread over bunds did widen by +2.6bps, but that was part of a broader widening in European spreads rather than because of the election result that was mostly priced in already, and we also saw the Italian (+4.1bps) and Greek (+11.0bps) spreads move by even larger margins. That left the Italian spread at 173.6bps, its widest level since June 2020.
Back to equities and earlier the STOXX 600 (-1.81%) slumped along with other bourses on the continent, closing during the nadir in US equities. On a sectoral basis, the biggest global underperformer for equities were energy stocks, but that was no surprise considering the decline in oil prices given concerns over Chinese demand going forward. By the close, Brent Crude fell by -4.06% to $102.32/bbl, but rallied along with equities after trading as much as -6.30% lower intraday and below $100/bbl for the first time in a couple of weeks. WTI was also down -3.46% at $98.54/bbl. And other energy prices lost ground too, with European natural gas futures (-2.15%) falling to their lowest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, at €92.84/MWh. Oil is back up around 1% this morning after the renewed global risk appetite.
In spite of the more negative growth tone in markets, the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany yesterday came in above expectations in April, with the reading at 91.8 (vs. 89.0 expected), marking an unexpected improvement from the March reading that had been the worst since August 2020. Otherwise on the data side, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index for April fell to 1.1 (vs. 5.0 expected), the lowest since July 2020.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, preliminary March data on durable goods orders and core capital goods orders, the FHFA house price index for February, and new home sales for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos. Finally, earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Pepsico, UPS, Texas Instruments, General Electric and General Motors.
Nowhere To Hide
Nowhere To Hide
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
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